Women's Tennis: Northwest Regionals - Printable Version
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Women's Tennis: Northwest Regionals - ColoradoTree - 10-19-2021
One of my favorite events of the year is this weekend at Stanford--the ITA Northwest Regionals. There are twelve ITA regions, and the Northwest region contains northern California, Oregon, and Washington. (So, that's 5 of the 11 Pac-12 schools in Stanford, Cal, UW, WSU, and Oregon as well as smaller-conference schools like SJSU, St. Mary's, USF, Santa Clara, Cal Poly, Gonzaga, and Fresno State.)
Stanford always hosts the regional championships--a 128-player singles draw and a 64-team doubles draw. Historically, the singles finalists and the doubles champion qualify for ITA Fall Nationals, and while that seems true this year as well, usually if you were a highly-ranked player who had a bad match and didn't qualify, you could probably get an at-large bid. But this year, likely due to Covid, Fall Nationals is a smaller event and you won't be able to count on your ranking to get you there--you'll need to win your way there. And where participation in the year-end NCAA singles tournament depends on a high ranking, and where getting a high ranking means playing and beating other top-ranked players, Fall Nationals is a gold mine of opportunities to boost your ranking. More important for the team, it's a chance to hone skills against the best.
But Northwest Regionals isn't just important as a pathway to Fall Nationals, it's also important for what it is. It's our first big look at not just our team, but an early sense of how we stack up with some conference rivals (mainly Cal), and how our players look against other top players in the region. The entire roster plays, walk-ons and scholarship players alike. (That's less important this year, as our 10-strong roster is all scholarship or soon-to-be scholarship players.) We get our first chance to see our freshmen in person and Lele will get some useful data points in deciding how our lineup should shake out.
In addition to our own players, we should see the following players in the field: Cal freshman Jessica Alsola (the 7th-ranked newcomer), #14 Vanessa Wong (UW), #17 Haley Giavara (Cal), #47 Michaela Bayerlova (WSU), #57 Mariia Kozyreva (St. Mary's), #106 Julia Rosenqvist (Cal), #109 Catherine Broerman (Gonzaga), #119 Valentina Ivanov (Cal), and #124 Sarah-Maude Fortin. But keep in mind that our region suffers from the same bias that affects the team rankings, where a lot of good-but-not-elite teams and players in the SEC beat each other up, and because the rankings formula rewards good wins far more than it punishes any loss, there's a "rising tide lifts all boats" effect that sees SEC teams and players (and to a lesser extent, the ACC, too) be ranked higher than they necessarily warrant, which means teams/players out west tend to be ranked a bit lower than they deserve on merit. We may only have two ranked upperclassmen right now and one ranked freshman, but I'd be shocked if we're not a Top 5 team and a national title contender by year's end.
There was no 2020 tournament, but Michaela Gordon has won all three she's played. In the fall of 2019, she won the singles title (beating SMC's Kozyreva), and Arbuthnott/Blake won the doubles title over a UW pair. In 2018, Gordon beat Caroline Lampl in the singles final while Madurawe/Yee won the doubles title. In 2017, then-freshman Gordon beat Arbuthnott in the singles final, while a couple of Stanford duos lost in the doubles semis (though Arbuthnott-Gordon played doubles at Fall Nationals as an alternate and then won the whole darn thing). 2016 was the last time Stanford didn't claim the singles title, when then-freshman Emma Higuchi made it through to the final before falling to Cal's Karla Popovic.
In short, this is our home tournament, and we have owned this region. This tournament is a fairly big deal, though you wouldn't know it from the official website. There's no story yet, no preview, and no draws or even a player list. By contrast, every other regional happening this weekend at least has player lists up. As soon as draws and seeds are up, I'll post that information here.
But how to watch? It's all at Taube, it starts Friday and will run most of the day on Friday-Saturday-Sunday with the last couple of rounds on Monday and Tuesday, and I believe it's usually free of charge to attend. If you're near campus, swing by. If you want to follow remotely, then the live streaming link is http://streamingtennis.com/Cardinal/?DB_OEM_ID=30600
RE: Women's Tennis: Northwest Regionals - ColoradoTree - 10-21-2021
It's the day before the tournament, and still no draws posted. But the player list is out, and it shows that Gordon is not playing (for reasons unknown), so she will not defend her title and become a 4-time Northwest Regionals champion. Nicole Mossmer is also not playing, and Sara Choy is only playing doubles, meaning we have seven players in the singles draw and four doubles teams.
Also absent are Cal's Giavara and Ivanov as well as WSU's Bayerlova. Whether that's due to another tournament or illness/injury is unclear, but Giavara and Ivanov not being there is a big boost to Stanford's chances of success at this home regional. That 2016 win for Cal's Popovic? It broke a 6-year streak of Stanford regional singles champions (Taylor Davidson in 2015, Carol Zhao in 2014, Kristie Ahn in 2010 and 2013, Krista Hardebeck in 2012, and Nicole Gibbs in 2011). So it's been 9 out of the past 10 Northwest Regionals where Stanford has won the singles title.
As for Mossmer, I know she missed time due to a health scare (I'm unclear on the details), and the fact that she's still on the roster suggests she hasn't medically retired yet. But while our roster has plenty of depth for now, at a certain point having one of eight scholarships tied up in a player who has barely seen the court is a misallocation of resources. If memory serves, a player can medically retire and stay on scholarship but is no longer charged to that team's total (please correct me if I'm wrong on that). Even if she's come back, she's missed out on so much development time, and it's difficult to imagine her being a contributor going forward. And FWIW, there have been a few Instagram posts showing the team practicing, and Angelica Blake "took over" the athletic department account to show a day in her life, including practice and dinner with the team, and I did not see Mossmer, Gordon, or Geller in any of those posts. (Geller is set to play this weekend, however.)
Also of note is that on the player list, 145 players are listed for the singles draw and 140 for the doubles draw (so, 70 teams). But the draw is 128 singles players and 64 doubles teams, so either this is preliminary and some will drop from the formal tournament and maybe play some added matches on the side instead, or there will have to be qualifying draws. The schedule is tight to squeeze in qualifying rounds of singles and doubles, so I'd assume some will just be dropped from the main draw and there will be some added matches. Hopefully we find out soon!
RE: Women's Tennis: Northwest Regionals - BobK - 10-21-2021
Yes a medical retirement and on scholarship is a non counter
RE: Women's Tennis: Northwest Regionals - ColoradoTree - 10-21-2021
The draws are out, and Stanford is well-represented among the seeds. https://colleges.wearecollegetennis.com/competitions/StanfordUniversityW/Tournaments/draws/069089F9-1C02-43BD-82B5-B68774093F12
Singles seeds are:
(1) Vanessa Wong, UW
(2) Connie Ma, Stanford
(3) Mariia Kozyreva, St. Mary's
(4) Jessica Alsola, Cal
(5) Alexandra Yepifanova, Stanford
(6) Angelica Blake, Stanford
(7) Julia Rosenqvist, Cal (primarily #2 in last year's lineup)
(8) Catherine Broerman, Gonzaga
(9) Sarah-Maude Fortin, UW (#2 for them last year)
(10) Valencia Xu, Stanford
(11) Klara Kosan, UOP
(12) Hannah Viller Moeller, Cal (#5 in last year's lineup)
(13) Jada Bui, Cal (#4 in last year's lineup)
(14) Uxia Martinez Moral, Oregon
(15) Maria Martinez Vaquero, USF
(16) Nika Zupancic, UW (#4 for them last year)
Unseeded, but playing in singles, are Niluka Madurawe, India Houghton, and Ana Geller. FWIW, Geller played Zupancic last year at the #4 line and handled her pretty easily. Some of the lower seeds are a bit surprising, but that's OK.
If seeds hold, the R16 matchups would be:
(1) Wong vs. (13) Bui
(5) Yepifanova vs. (15) Martinez Vaquero
(4) Alsola vs. (10) Xu
(6) Blake vs. (16) Zupancic
(7) Rosenqvist vs. (9) Fortin
(3) Kozyreva vs. (14) Martinez Moral
(8) Broerman vs. (12) Viller Moeller
(2) Ma vs. (11) Kosan
And if they hold another round, the quarters would be Wong-Yepifanova, Alsola-Blake, Kozyreva-Rosenqvist, and Ma-Broerman. Of course, it won't be that neat, because it never is, but I always like to look ahead and see what potential matchups are out there.
As far as an outlook for the unseeded players, Ana Geller has the toughest road, with a second-round date with 3rd-seeded Kozyreva. Of course, if she pulls off an upset there, I wouldn't be surprised if she cruises to the quarters from there. Madurawe has some challenges, with Oregon's Lillian Mould (who mostly played #2 for them last year) likely in the second round and 13th-seeded Bui in the third round. Houghton's first two rounds look pretty good, but then she'd get 7th-seeded Rosenqvist in the third round.
RE: Women's Tennis: Northwest Regionals - ColoradoTree - 10-21-2021
The doubles side of Northwest Regionals gives us a first look at what pairings Lele is thinking might work. Here are those seeds:
(1) Blake/Ma, Stanford
(2) Wong/Olsen, UW
(3) Alsola/Richardson, Cal
(4) Colyer/Martinez Vaquero, USF
(5-8) Madurawe/Yepifanova, Stanford
(5-8) Mould/Teixido Garcia, Oregon
(5-8) Broerman/Sosnowska, Gonzaga
(5-8) Thiel/Miller Voeller, Cal
Unseeded duos for us are Xu/Houghton and Choy/Geller. I'm really excited about that Blake/Ma pairing, and I think they could be one of the better doubles teams in the nation. Madurawe made herself a regular with Gordon in doubles last year, so even if she's boxed out of the singles lineup, I'd expect to see her in doubles, sort of like Kimberly Yee her last couple of years. It also continues Lele's tradition of pairing freshmen with more experienced players in doubles. Not sure what to think about the two unseeded pairs, as Houghton barely played doubles last year, Geller played five matches at #2 with Arbuthnott when Blake was out but didn't otherwise play much, and Choy was a mainstay at #3 with Emma Higuchi. The use of height is interesting here, too: we have three legitimately tall players, Blake (5'10"), Houghton (5'10"), and Yepifanova (whose height isn't listed but she looks like she's got a couple inches on Houghton). Some balance on those teams.
Of course, if Gordon plays this season (and I'm still assuming she is), we may well see Gordon/Madurawe as our #1 in the spring, Ma/Blake as our #2, and your guess is as good as mine as what pair Lele plucks from the rest of the roster for #3.
So, after considering all of that, what does this mean? Well, the seeds suggest that the coaches in the region have the same view of Connie Ma as I do--she's bonkers good, and the ITA is silly for not having her at the top of the newcomer rankings. Kozyreva is the preseason #57 player in the country, and this group of coaches thinks Ma is better, trailing only #14 Vanessa Wong. If Gordon doesn't play, Connie Ma will be our #1--heck, she might be our #1 if Gordon does play. The seeds suggest the following pecking order:
1. Gordon
2. Ma
3. Yepifanova
4. Blake
5. Xu
6. Geller/Choy/Houghton/Madurawe, but probably Geller out of that group
Choy played #4 for us last year and she was good at #4, coming within inches of clinching wins over national runner-up Pepperdine for us. This freshman class is so good that it might push her out of the singles lineup altogether. Even if Gordon doesn't play, that looks like Choy at the #6 spot, where she should be absolutely dominant.
Friday Schedule (all times PT):
Doubles Round of 64
8:30am:
* (1) Blake/Ma vs. Tanevska/Alcon (Portland)
* Choy/Geller vs. Mulville/Luescher (Oregon)
* Xu/Houghton vs. Kobayashi/Olsen (Oregon)
* (5-8) Madurawe/Yepifanova vs. Weil/Chang (UW)
Singles Round of 128
10:15am:
* Madurawe vs. Jade Quintana (Seattle)
* (5) Yepifanova vs. Mia Angelina Ruja (UOP)
* Houghton vs. Alexis Sam (UOP)
12:00pm: Geller vs. Ella LeRoy (UOP)
1:00pm: (10) Xu vs. Irena Muradyan (SJSU)
1:30pm: (2) Ma vs. Eliza Bates (Cal Poly)
2:00pm: (6) Blake vs. Iva Zelic (Portland)
Singles Round of 64 (if our players win--this is for planning purposes, not woofing):
4:00pm: Madurawe vs. winner of Mould (Oregon) and Laursen (Gonzaga)
4:30pm: (5) Yepifanova vs. winner of Alcon (Portland) and Gabuzyan (E Wash)
4:30pm: Houghton vs. winner of Egan (Portland State) and Magrini (Fresno State)
5:00pm: (10) Xu vs. winner of Frampton (Gonzaga) and Ahmed (Fresno State)
5:30pm: Geller vs. likely (3) Mariia Kozyreva (St. Mary's)
5:30pm: (2) Ma vs. winner of Tsukamoto (UC Davis) and Massey (St. Mary's)
6:00pm: (6) Blake vs. winner of Ronney (St. Mary's) and Johnson (Sac State)
RE: Women's Tennis: Northwest Regionals - TheFarm07 - 10-21-2021
Thank you as always for your analysis ColoradoTree.
Given all of this, would you say we are one of the favorites for the national title in the spring? Obviously, there's a whole season to play and a lot can happen between now and then, but at the moment, who would you put as the top contenders?
RE: Women's Tennis: Northwest Regionals - ColoradoTree - 10-22-2021
(10-21-2021, 03:27 PM)TheFarm07 Wrote: Thank you as always for your analysis ColoradoTree.
Given all of this, would you say we are one of the favorites for the national title in the spring? Obviously, there's a whole season to play and a lot can happen between now and then, but at the moment, who would you put as the top contenders?
Well, we have to remember that this is just one region, and it would be a lot more predictive if Gordon, Giavara, Ivanov, and Bayerlova were here. And counting on freshmen to perform to expectations is a dangerous game. But I will say that if the freshmen perform even close to expectations, we're a top 5 team. And part of why I'm so excited about this tournament is it's our first real chance to see how our freshmen do perform against collegiate competition. Are we on track to be one of the last few teams standing this spring, or should I tamp down my expectations? When Stanford players run into each other in the draw, how does it shake out? (They're all in different sections of the draw, so they won't play each other until the quarterfinals at the earliest.) Who looks to have taken a developmental leap over the summer?
Looking around the country, Texas has to be the favorite, because they won the national title with freshmen playing 5 of 6 singles lines, and they bring just about everyone back. And UNC is going to be very tough, as will Pepperdine, Georgia, and Duke. In the conference at the end of the year, the pecking order was basically Cal-UCLA-Stanford-USC. We are going to improve on that--UCLA is still going to be tough, but they lose a few contributors, and I think we're a bit better now. USC brings back their top 3, but they're vulnerable to a deep team. Cal is a top 10-caliber team, so I think that match at the end of the year decides the conference #1 seed. If our freshmen play to form and develop like we think they can, I think we win that match and are the Pac-12 favorites, which effectively means we're in the mix as plausible national title winners. But we're counting on improvement from a lot of folks who haven't played much or any college tennis. I'm cautiously optimistic, but I want to see some results first. And we'll get some this weekend.
Outside the conference, here are the benchmark matches of which I'm aware: (1) the match against UVA in Charlottesville to determine who advances to Indoor Nationals; (2) a match on February 25 when we host Texas; (3) how we do at Indoor Nationals if we get there; and (4) a match against Pepperdine on March 6 in Malibu. If you're in the area, get thee to Taube for that Texas match, and if you leave nearby, go to Malibu for that Pepperdine match. Both of those teams are national title contenders, so I'm excited for those tests.
RE: Women's Tennis: Northwest Regionals - ColoradoTree - 10-22-2021
Well, scratch those scheduled times because of the rain. Should pass in an hour or so, though.
Looks like the rain has stopped and they've squeegeed the courts--a little sun would help finish the drying process but doesn't look like they'll get that. As soon as the courts are dry, I expect we'll see doubles get started ASAP.
RE: Women's Tennis: Northwest Regionals - TheFarm07 - 10-22-2021
Thanks ColoradoTree for your reply. I am hoping the freshmen are as good as advertised and the potentially great depth we have will come through for us.
It sounds like we have an exciting season coming up in any case and looking forward to reading your recaps and thoughts!
RE: Women's Tennis: Northwest Regionals - Lorcan - 10-22-2021
The results are starting to trickle in.
Alexandra Yepifanova bt. Ruja (Pacific) 6-3 6-1
Madurawe bt. Quintana (Seattle) 6-0 6-1
No major upsets yet, but my one pet peeve with Stanford is that they never have a Live Score for tournaments like this, so it's really hard to tell who's playing and what the dynamic of a match might be even if you decide to watch it.
RE: Women's Tennis: Northwest Regionals - martyup - 10-22-2021
Results?
RE: Women's Tennis: Northwest Regionals - Lorcan - 10-22-2021
Valencia Xu def. Muradyan (SJSU) 6-3 6-2
India Houghton def. Alexis Sam (UP) 6-0 6-1
I think the rain really delayed things today, but we'll see how many matches were actually completed. I doubt that they'll get through the second round tonight.
Ana Geller also safely through, although the third seed Kozyreva awaits her in the next round.
Blake won 7-5 6-1 against Zelic. Still waiting on results for Connie Ma.
Houghton, Xu, Yepfianova, Geller, Blake, Madurawe all through safely in the first round.
RE: Women's Tennis: Northwest Regionals - Lorcan - 10-22-2021
I'm sure that ColoradoTree will come through with a scintillating analysis at some point. It looks like more results are getting uploaded quicker.
Ana Geller had what was rightly called a tough test against Mariaa Kozyreva, and took the first set before falling in 3, 2-6 6-2 6-3. Niluka Madurawe also fell to Oregon's #2, Lillian Mould, 6-3 6-4. Connie Ma has marched through to the third round, dropping a grand total of just four games. India Houghton joins Connie Ma in the third, and likely will have to face Julia Rosenqvist (Cal) next after beating Fresno State's Matilde Magrini 5-7 6-3 6-4. Connie Ma's draw seems to have opened up nicely, as she won't have to face a seed until at least the quarterfinals after (11) Klara Kosan of Pacific was ousted in the first round. Valencia Xu and Alexandra Yepifanova are also safely through. So, really, no big surprises from the Stanford side of things, but it will start getting tougher from here on out.
RE: Women's Tennis: Northwest Regionals - martyup - 10-22-2021
Where are you finding the results?
RE: Women's Tennis: Northwest Regionals - Lorcan - 10-23-2021
https://colleges.wearecollegetennis.com/competitions/StanfordUniversityW/Tournaments/draws/069089F9-1C02-43BD-82B5-B68774093F12
RE: Women's Tennis: Northwest Regionals - ColoradoTree - 10-23-2021
Like others noted, no major surprises, though Houghton and Blake needing three sets to get through the second round against lesser opponents was a bit of a red flag. Could be nothing, of course—it is the first big tournament of the season, and you can get some wonky results.
First Round Results
Madurawe beat Quintana 6-1, 6-0
(5) Yepifanova beat Ruja 6-3, 6-1
(10) Xu beat Muradyan 6-3, 6-2
(6) Blake beat Zelic 7-5, 6-1
Houghton beat Sam 6-0, 6-1
Geller beat LeRoy 6-4, 6-1
(2) Ma beat Bates 6-1, 6-0
Second Round Results
Mould (Oregon) def. Madurawe 6-3, 6-4
(5) Yepifanova def. Gabuzyan 6-0, 6-3
(10) Xu def. Ahmed 6-3, 6-3
(6) Blake def. Ronney 6-3, 5-7, 6-1
Houghton def. Magrini 5-7, 6-3, 6-4
(3) Kozyreva def. Geller 2-6, 6-2, 6-3
(2) Ma def. Tsukamoto 6-2, 6-1
They got through the second round of singles after all, though there were matches on court until very late in the night. Today sees a pretty aggressive plan to try and make up for missed time due to rain: We’ll see doubles R64 first thing this morning, then doubles R32 late morning, then singles third round at noon, and the round of 16 at 2:45pm. Fitness and conditioning will be absolutely massive after a full workday of tennis from some of these players. I’ll write the matchups down in a bit, but coffee first!
RE: Women's Tennis: Northwest Regionals - ColoradoTree - 10-23-2021
Doubles First Round
(5-8) Yepifanova/Madurawe def. Weil/Chang (UW) 6-3.
(1) Ma/Blake def. Tanevska/Alcon (Portland) 6-1
Choy/Xu def. Kobayashi/Olsen (Oregon) 7-5
The doubles draw reflects that Houghton/Geller withdrew due to illness, so one of those two may be feeling under the weather. A bummer we can’t see how they play together, though.
Doubles Second Round
All matches 10:45am
If we win, there are potentially interesting opponents for Xu/Choy (Fortin/Chilton of UW), but otherwise, we should do just fine.
Singles Third Round
All matches scheduled for noon
(5) Yepifanova vs. Jovana Babic (SJSU)
(10) Xu vs. Caragh Courtney (USF)
(6) Blake vs. Erin Richardson (Cal)
Houghton vs. (7) Julia Rosenqvist (Cal)
(2) Ma vs. Ares Teixido Garcia (Oregon)
Singles Fourth Round
All matches scheduled for 2:45pm
Matchups TBD, but if they all win:
* Houghton would likely play 9th-seeded Fortin (UW).
* Ma, Blake, and Yepifanova would play unseeded players they should absolutely beat
* Xu would get Cal’s Jessica Alsola in an all-frosh matchup
RE: Women's Tennis: Northwest Regionals - ColoradoTree - 10-23-2021
Some overall first-day thoughts:
* Very good result from Geller. Kozyreva is a top 50 player, and taking a set off her shows she should be competitive, especially playing lower in the lineup than she did last year.
* I can’t be too mad about Madurawe losing, given that’s Oregon’s #2 from last year and possibly their #1 this year. And it was at least competitive. But all that said, I was still bummed she didn’t at least push her to three. Irrational, sure, but there it is.
* Yeah, the lack of live scoring is just terrible. I read an article about how Stanford was unlikely to ever host the NCAA championships again because we’re a fairly apathetic host. It’s all about the tennis, and we don’t much care about frills and making the experience feel more special for the student-athletes. Which is fine for our team—I don’t much mind that Lele is single-minded on coaching and doesn’t care about the extraneous stuff. But it makes it frustrating for fans to try and follow when we don’t know who exactly is playing and what the score is. Maybe they’ll do that for the final rounds when everything is on the stadium courts anyway? I think that’s what’s happened in the past.
* I wish Choy were playing singles. She was such a fighter at #4 last year, and assuming the three freshman play to their seeds here in the dual season, she’d be my preference for holding down that #6 line due to her demonstrated toughness last year.
* If you’re only going to show scores on the drawsheet, then at least do it promptly, my goodness.
* Ma’s first opponent in singles today is a transfer from Alabama who played at 5 and 6 there last year. So, an experienced collegian at least and should be a stiffer test than she had yesterday.
Looks like Blake/Ma just starting on Court 2 right now, fwiw.
RE: Women's Tennis: Northwest Regionals - ColoradoTree - 10-23-2021
Just one regular set for doubles so far, which is different from what they’ve done in the past. Usually, they do 8-game pro sets in the early rounds and switch to best of three sets for the semis and final, so this is presumably in an effort to speed things up and squeeze in two rounds before they have to switch to singles and get two rounds of that in before the rain comes this evening.
And Ma/Blake cruised, it seemed like.
FYI, I’m updating the schedule post a few above this one to reflect results. Three moving onto the second round of doubles.
RE: Women's Tennis: Northwest Regionals - ColoradoTree - 10-23-2021
Choy/Xu playing their second round on Court 1, by the way.
And Blake/Ma on Court 3.