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For Whom do I Root in the UW-UO Game? - Printable Version

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For Whom do I Root in the UW-UO Game? - Card Fan in OR - 11-04-2011

Since it is well-established that appropriate, respectful, sincere (See Woofing: Gods of) rooting works,--although more effective in the stock market than in sporting events--I need to know for whom to root in Saturday's game in Seattle. Our strength of schedule should not be affected, either way, if I understand SOS at all. If I knew for a fact we will beat Oregon, then it is easy. Root for the Ducks. However, since the outcome of that game is unknown, is it better to root for the Huskies or the Ducks on Saturday?

Do we want to face an Oregon team with only one blemish from LSU, or do we wanted them weakened by a team we already handled easily? Or would that be tempting fate and setting us up for a possible fall?

By the way, I am not overlooking the Beavers, but I think we can give the ball to our backs all day in the rain and beat the Beavers handily. I did notice that Andrew has yet to win in the state of Oregon,  though. So, for whom do I root in Seattle on Saturday?

Re: For Whom do I Root in the UW-UO Game? - washingtonismoney - 11-04-2011

Like the Iran-Iraq War, we'd like to see both teams bloodied and bowed afterwards. (Yes, I've used the joke before.)

For me, I'm kind of hoping UW wins. Arrogant Oregon Fan* annoys me more than Arrogant Husky Fan, though I'm sure as UW gets more success, their annoyance factor will increase far out of proportion.

* And, of course, writer. John Canzano has come to the conclusion that there's no way Stanford beats Oregon: http://www.oregonlive.com/sports/oregonian/john_canzano/index.ssf/2011/10/canzano_andrew_luck_is_human_s.html  How he came to this conclusion after watching Wazzu give Oregon a scare at home is beyond me.

Re: For Whom do I Root in the UW-UO Game? - wyattp - 11-04-2011

I'm with washington on this one.  I want UW to win, just to give the obnoxious Oregon fans a taste of something....

Re: For Whom do I Root in the UW-UO Game? - metsjetsfan - 11-04-2011

I've been wondering this as well, so I decided to lay out the logic and see where it takes us:

Our goal is to make the Pac 12 championship game.

A win over Oregon, regardless of their record, means we'd pretty much be set for the PAC12 championship game (assuming a victory over Kal).

So I think we need to evaluate the effects of losing to Oregon.  What gives us a better chance of making the Pac 12 championship game: a loss to an Oregon team that lost to UW or a loss to an Oregon team that beat UW?

For info on tiebreakers (credit to Roberton3 for the research!): http://www.thecardboard.org/board/index.php/topic,4798.msg34212.html#msg34212

So if Oregon defeats Stanford and

1) Oregon defeats UW: Oregon will get into the championship game, even if they lose to USC.  This scenario results in Oregon winning over Stanford based on the H2H tiebreaker.

2a) Oregon loses to UW and defeats USC, Oregon will still win the North.  This scenario results in a 3 way tie.  However, Oregon almost certainly will not have a lower BCS ranking than UW, and we'd lose out again on the H2H tiebreaker to Oregon.

2b) Oregon loses to UW AND loses to USC, we would almost definitely be the North winner. This scenario leaves Stanford and UW at the top with 1 conference loss each, and we'd win out with our Head to head victory over UW.

Either way, a loss to Oregon puts a serious dent on our chances of becoming the North winner, but at least with the second scenario, we will have a chance, albeit a very small one dependent on USC winning.  With the first scenario, there is no chance at all.

So in conclusion, Stanford fans should root for UW.  But of course this is all moot as long as Stanford wins out.  Just win baby win!

Re: For Whom do I Root in the UW-UO Game? - Leftcoast - 11-04-2011

So here's a conundrum - suppose Oregon beats us and, with only one loss, is picked for the NC game.  How does the Rose Bowl fill it's open slot?  Can they jump over the Southern champion (presumably a lower ranked ASU) and choose Stanford? 

I think they would have their choice of highly ranked team and, if they prefer a Pac 10 participant, would jump on Stanford to fill their open slot. 

And ... since I think this is a more likely option I'm rooting for Oregon.  Just not very hard.

Re: For Whom do I Root in the UW-UO Game? - metsjetsfan - 11-04-2011

(11-04-2011, 04:32 PM)Leftcoast link Wrote:So here's a conundrum - suppose Oregon beats us and, with only one loss, is picked for the NC game.

I suppose it's possible...but HIGHLY unlikely.  Oregon would need to be picked over Oklahoma, LSU/Alabama loser, OK state, and Boise State.  In the likely event that either Oklahoma or OK State has one loss, the voters/computers would pick the Big 12 representative over Oregon, simply based on the SOS advantage and perceived superiority of the Big 12.  The LSU/Alabama loser would probably get in over Oregon for the same reason, with the added fact that Oregon already lost decisively to LSU.  Boise State would have the case of being an undefeated team and the first chance for a non-Big 6 team making the NCG.

IMO, way more needs to happen for Oregon to make the NCG, and that's too much to bank on than if Oregon simply loses to UW.

But then again, obviously this is all conjecture, and what we say has no effect on the games.  I think we could still pick up a BCS bowl bid with a loss to Oregon, as the bowl committees would probably look at the Luck effect.  So I'm still optimistic that we're destined for a BCS bowl regardless of whether we lose to Oregon, with the ideal matchup being a Sugar Bowl debut against an SEC team (assuming Oregon/ASU goes to the Rose Bowl).

Re: For Whom do I Root in the UW-UO Game? - Spiny_Norman - 11-04-2011

Lefty,

Stanford could be selected as an at-large team for a BCS bowl as long as it meets the following criteria:

Quote:An at-large team is any Football Bowl Subdivision team that is bowl-eligible and meets the following requirements:

  A. Has won at least nine regular-season games, and
  B. Is among the top 14 teams in the final BCS Standings.

I see no reference to conference position being a qualifier or disqualifier.

If the Rose Bowl loses the Pac 10 champ to the NC game, they would get to choose a replacement from among the eligible at-large teams.  But here is the catch.  The bowl losing the No. 1 team gets the first replacement pick, and the bowl losing the No. 2 team gets the second replacement pick.  So let's say the Sugar Bowl loses the #1 rated SEC champ.  The Sugar Bowl gets to choose a replacement team first.  They could pick Stanford before the Rose Bowl does.

Also here is the order for selecting at-large teams after the replacement teams are picked - Fiesta, Sugar, Orange

http://www.bcsfootball.org/news/story?id=4819597

Re: For Whom do I Root in the UW-UO Game? - Rando - 11-04-2011

Yikes, so many what if's. I am going to be rooting for Oregon, because I want us to play in the National Title Game.

I like Washington because my friend lives in Seattle and is a fan. But I'm selfish and I want us to be able to play for a NC. That being said, if Oregon loses, then that's fine. Can't be picky.

I'm not even really debating us losing the Oregon game. It's going to be an incredible experience just to see the game live, win or lose. I think NC is more important than a PAC-12 title, and NC can't come without the other. If we want to be #1, Oregon beating Dub will help our SOS.

Re: For Whom do I Root in the UW-UO Game? - deepred - 11-04-2011

(11-04-2011, 05:47 PM)Rando90 link Wrote:If we want to be #1, Oregon beating Dub will help our SOS.

You just made an assertion that contradicts Card Fan in OR's statement:
(11-04-2011, 03:27 PM)Card Fan in OR link Wrote:Our strength of schedule should not be affected, either way, if I understand SOS at all.

Who's right?

Re: For Whom do I Root in the UW-UO Game? - washingtonismoney - 11-04-2011

Both! Some computers count signature wins more heavily; others don't. So it's probably a small net positive, computer-wise, that USC wins. I suspect it helps more for the human votes, who really seem to count the signature win thing heavily.

More to the point, most of this worrying is unnecessary. If we win, we'll be fine. If we don't, it won't matter.

Re: For Whom do I Root in the UW-UO Game? - FarmBoy - 11-04-2011

The bigger issue, over SOS or conference appearance, is how a Oregon would react to a loss. If UW beats them, do them have the little bit more of motivation to come out and beat Stanford? Or does it deflate them and make them come out flat? I tend to think that a loss to UW will make the Ducks even more amped up to beat us. But the effect is probably marginal.

Re: For Whom do I Root in the UW-UO Game? - Card Fan in OR - 11-04-2011

Quote:The bigger issue, over SOS or conference appearance, is how a Oregon would react to a loss. If UW beats them, do them have the little bit more of motivation to come out and beat Stanford? Or does it deflate them and make them come out flat? I tend to think that a loss to UW will make the Ducks even more amped up to beat us. But the effect is probably marginal.

And that is the essence of my question. All this talk about tiebreakers and what happens if Oregon beats us and....Is not where I thought this thread would go. Who do I root for to make it easier for us to remain undefeated and (secondarily) move up in the rankings. Are we better facing a "softened up" Duck team before we take care of business, or do we want them coming to Palo Alto with one loss? I think the better they look, the more it helps us after we dispatch them. Doesn't mean I am going to root for the Ducks, though. Just can't bring myself to do that.

Re: For Whom do I Root in the UW-UO Game? - fullmetal - 11-04-2011

I'll be a Huskies fan this weekend.  /slight shudder

Re: For Whom do I Root in the UW-UO Game? - oman - 11-05-2011

Oregon. 

Re: For Whom do I Root in the UW-UO Game? - Farm93 - 11-05-2011

The Ducks win over UW .... ESPN College GameDay comes to town AND Stanford does not get passed by Oklahoma or Bama/LSU loser.
The Ducks lose to UW .... No ESPN AND Stanford likely becomes vulnerable to getting passed by a one loss team.

FWIW - I doubt SC beats Oregon in Eugene.  Oregon's scheme, team speed and game pace are all horrible for SC, splash in some rain and I just don't see SC winning.  If Stanford cannot beat Oregon, then the big dream ends anyway.  The two loss scenario is not terribly likely, and seems more likely that dinging Stanford's best win a notch or two could hurt the BCS standings later.

Getting a one loss Oregon team is better for the conference, the Stanford BCS aspirations & Stanford recruiting.

I do hope that Oregon UW game goes 3, 4 or even 5OTs.  That would be great!



Re: For Whom do I Root in the UW-UO Game? - washingtonismoney - 11-05-2011

(11-05-2011, 06:31 AM)Farm93 link Wrote:The Ducks lose to UW .... No ESPN AND Stanford likely becomes vulnerable to getting passed by a one loss team.

Won't happen. Has literally never happened before, that an unbeaten AQ team has been passed by a one-loss team for the national championship. I doubt they'll start for the most hyped quarterback prospect ever.

If we win out, we will be fine. If we don't, it doesn't matter. Simple as that.