If Shaw stays the course... - Printable Version

If Shaw stays the course... - Printable Version

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If Shaw stays the course... - gailtate - 12-14-2021

...same assistants, same approach, same ol' same ol', etc., what are your thoughts about the future of this program in the next 2-3 seasons?

RE: If Shaw stays the course... - Phogge - 12-14-2021

SC loading up. Oregon has a new coach with EUTM, OSU and Cal on the rise, ASU waiting to hear re sanctions, UCLA with athletes. Utah unbeatable for Stanford.........

Hey Pope Pius XIII woke up on HBO so anything can happen. NOT.

RE: If Shaw stays the course... - Maple Leaf - 12-14-2021

(12-14-2021, 05:28 PM)Phogge Wrote: SC loading up. Oregon has a new coach with EUTM, OSU and Cal on the rise, ASU waiting to hear re sanctions, UCLA with athletes. Utah unbeatable for Stanford.........

Hey Pope Pius XIII woke up on HBO so anything can happen. NOT.

And then there is WSU which appears to have Stanford's number since 2015, though some of the games were very close with WSU making enough plays at the end to prevail.

RE: If Shaw stays the course... - Spiny_Norman - 12-14-2021

(12-14-2021, 05:17 PM)gailtate Wrote: ...same assistants, same approach, same ol' same ol', etc., what are your thoughts about the future of this program in the next 2-3 seasons?

As Jim Harbaugh told the team and I think it is still written on the wall of the practice field, "You are either getting better or getting worse. You don't stay the same."

"same assistants, same approach, same ol' same ol' " does not sound to me like getting better. So that means . . . .

RE: If Shaw stays the course... - 82lsju - 12-14-2021

(12-14-2021, 07:44 PM)Spiny_Norman Wrote: As Jim Harbaugh told the team and I think it is still written on the wall of the practice field, "You are either getting better or getting worse. You don't stay the same."

when I rode by there about a month ago the sign was still there.....

RE: If Shaw stays the course... - BostonCard - 12-14-2021

I would bet on reversion to the mean. Next year will be rough on defense, but after that we will get past our self-imposed sanctions and might surprise some people.

BC

RE: If Shaw stays the course... - Austroturf - 12-15-2021

(12-14-2021, 11:24 PM)BostonCard Wrote: I would bet on reversion to the mean. Next year will be rough on defense, but after that we will get past our self-imposed sanctions and might surprise some people.

BC

I guess the question here is: what's our mean? 6-6? It is true that a football season, consisting of 12 games, is a "limited sample". Looking at last season, the Washington and WSU games could have gone either way, so we could easily have been 5-7 with the same team. That said, the Oregon game was all but lost; and the OT thriller required several excellent plays and lucky breaks to pull the W out of the fire. So we also could easily have been 2-10. That's a range of 4 different seasonal outcomes.

This sort of range is likely to happen next year, as well, but I don't see anything to suggest six wins. With only one "gimme" in the schedule (Colgate), we could be looking at a range of 1-11 to 4-8, with reality probably in between these two bookends. If we get to 4-8, who are the scalps? Colgate, Oregon State at home, maybe Cal away, maybe Wazzu or ASU at home. Anybody else we can beat? We have the even-year challenge of 4 home games and 5 away in conference play; and those 5 away games include: Oregon, Washington, USC, Utah and Cal. Notre Dame is also in South Bend next year. If the schedule was tough this year, it's equally tough in 2022.

RE: If Shaw stays the course... - JohnR34231 - 12-15-2021

(12-15-2021, 03:06 AM)Austroturf Wrote:
(12-14-2021, 11:24 PM)BostonCard Wrote: I would bet on reversion to the mean. Next year will be rough on defense, but after that we will get past our self-imposed sanctions and might surprise some people.

BC

I guess the question here is: what's our mean? 6-6? It is true that a football season, consisting of 12 games, is a "limited sample". Looking at last season, the Washington and WSU games could have gone either way, so we could easily have been 5-7 with the same team. That said, the Oregon game was all but lost; and the OT thriller required several excellent plays and lucky breaks to pull the W out of the fire. So we also could easily have been 2-10. That's a range of 4 different seasonal outcomes.

This sort of range is likely to happen next year, as well, but I don't see anything to suggest six wins. With only one "gimme" in the schedule (Colgate), we could be looking at a range of 1-11 to 4-8, with reality probably in between these two bookends. If we get to 4-8, who are the scalps? Colgate, Oregon State at home, maybe Cal away, maybe Wazzu or ASU at home. Anybody else we can beat? We have the even-year challenge of 4 home games and 5 away in conference play; and those 5 away games include: Oregon, Washington, USC, Utah and Cal. Notre Dame is also in South Bend next year. If the schedule was tough this year, it's equally tough in 2022.

I believe we play U$C at home so unless the new coach does a magic turnaround that might also be a possible victory.
But yeah, I have a hard time seeing anything better than 4-8 also.

RE: If Shaw stays the course... - Austroturf - 12-15-2021

(12-15-2021, 07:33 AM)JohnR34231 Wrote:
(12-15-2021, 03:06 AM)Austroturf Wrote:
(12-14-2021, 11:24 PM)BostonCard Wrote: I would bet on reversion to the mean. Next year will be rough on defense, but after that we will get past our self-imposed sanctions and might surprise some people.

BC

I guess the question here is: what's our mean? 6-6? It is true that a football season, consisting of 12 games, is a "limited sample". Looking at last season, the Washington and WSU games could have gone either way, so we could easily have been 5-7 with the same team. That said, the Oregon game was all but lost; and the OT thriller required several excellent plays and lucky breaks to pull the W out of the fire. So we also could easily have been 2-10. That's a range of 4 different seasonal outcomes.

This sort of range is likely to happen next year, as well, but I don't see anything to suggest six wins. With only one "gimme" in the schedule (Colgate), we could be looking at a range of 1-11 to 4-8, with reality probably in between these two bookends. If we get to 4-8, who are the scalps? Colgate, Oregon State at home, maybe Cal away, maybe Wazzu or ASU at home. Anybody else we can beat? We have the even-year challenge of 4 home games and 5 away in conference play; and those 5 away games include: Oregon, Washington, USC, Utah and Cal. Notre Dame is also in South Bend next year. If the schedule was tough this year, it's equally tough in 2022.

I believe we play U$C at home so unless the new coach does a magic turnaround that might also be a possible victory.
But yeah, I have a hard time seeing anything better than 4-8 also.

True. UCLA is away next year, and we get the Trojans at home.

RE: If Shaw stays the course... - 82lsju - 12-15-2021

(12-15-2021, 07:47 AM)Austroturf Wrote:
(12-15-2021, 07:33 AM)JohnR34231 Wrote:
(12-15-2021, 03:06 AM)Austroturf Wrote:
(12-14-2021, 11:24 PM)BostonCard Wrote: I would bet on reversion to the mean. Next year will be rough on defense, but after that we will get past our self-imposed sanctions and might surprise some people.

BC

I guess the question here is: what's our mean? 6-6? It is true that a football season, consisting of 12 games, is a "limited sample". Looking at last season, the Washington and WSU games could have gone either way, so we could easily have been 5-7 with the same team. That said, the Oregon game was all but lost; and the OT thriller required several excellent plays and lucky breaks to pull the W out of the fire. So we also could easily have been 2-10. That's a range of 4 different seasonal outcomes.

This sort of range is likely to happen next year, as well, but I don't see anything to suggest six wins. With only one "gimme" in the schedule (Colgate), we could be looking at a range of 1-11 to 4-8, with reality probably in between these two bookends. If we get to 4-8, who are the scalps? Colgate, Oregon State at home, maybe Cal away, maybe Wazzu or ASU at home. Anybody else we can beat? We have the even-year challenge of 4 home games and 5 away in conference play; and those 5 away games include: Oregon, Washington, USC, Utah and Cal. Notre Dame is also in South Bend next year. If the schedule was tough this year, it's equally tough in 2022.

I believe we play U$C at home so unless the new coach does a magic turnaround that might also be a possible victory.
But yeah, I have a hard time seeing anything better than 4-8 also.

True. UCLA is away next year, and we get the Trojans at home.

I'd guess the USC game will be Sat 10 Sept 2022 given USC plays Fresno State on 17 Sept 2022.

RE: If Shaw stays the course... - TriangleTree - 12-15-2021

(12-15-2021, 03:06 AM)Austroturf Wrote:
(12-14-2021, 11:24 PM)BostonCard Wrote: I would bet on reversion to the mean. Next year will be rough on defense, but after that we will get past our self-imposed sanctions and might surprise some people.

BC

I guess the question here is: what's our mean? 6-6? It is true that a football season, consisting of 12 games, is a "limited sample". Looking at last season, the Washington and WSU games could have gone either way, so we could easily have been 5-7 with the same team. That said, the Oregon game was all but lost; and the OT thriller required several excellent plays and lucky breaks to pull the W out of the fire. So we also could easily have been 2-10. That's a range of 4 different seasonal outcomes.

This sort of range is likely to happen next year, as well, but I don't see anything to suggest six wins. With only one "gimme" in the schedule (Colgate), we could be looking at a range of 1-11 to 4-8, with reality probably in between these two bookends. If we get to 4-8, who are the scalps? Colgate, Oregon State at home, maybe Cal away, maybe Wazzu or ASU at home. Anybody else we can beat? We have the even-year challenge of 4 home games and 5 away in conference play; and those 5 away games include: Oregon, Washington, USC, Utah and Cal. Notre Dame is also in South Bend next year. If the schedule was tough this year, it's equally tough in 2022.

Anything is possible, but can this team hit the reset button? Wheels definitely came off in 2021.
O-Line needs a quantum leap, good returning talent on paper but will it ever come together. Really hope there's a plan and an all out party search for the soul of the TWU.
D-Line needs a new start, no clue whether the talent is there, this could go anywhere from very ugly to nice surprise. Is it to much to hope for?
Will B Tremayne return? Everything went downhill when he went down, could have been a coincidence but he definitely opened things up. The kid was virtually unstoppable. Could this also bring back McKee to life?
Will the team still believe in 2022? I'm not close but haven't heard about mass defections or total loss of faith, which is in itself remarkable given how the season went.

Not sure what the chance of all of this happening is, but that's what it will take to come back the winning column in 22.
Good recruiting class gives me hope...

RE: If Shaw stays the course... - baycommuter - 12-15-2021

I think it's a development season, pointing the freshmen toward being experienced enough to win Big Game. Shaw will get a pass till 2023. That's a year with five home conference games, Arizona/Colorado instead of Utah/ASU, and Hawaii and Sac State nonconference, so if they don't have a winning season by then the change will have to be made.