WBB: Stanford 80 Oregon 68 as Lexie hits 33

WBB: Stanford 80 Oregon 68 as Lexie hits 33 - Printable Version

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WBB: Stanford 80 Oregon 68 as Lexie hits 33 - 81alum - 01-04-2022

Preview:

Fans (other than the players' families) will sadly not be in Maples to watch our first home game in a month, but we will take on a finally healthy Oregon team in Maples and will have to be content with Pac 12 networks.

Oregon is 7-4 and we have 2 losses in common with them: South Florida and South Carolina. The other two losses were more ignominious, to UC Davis who we beat, and to Kansas State. Oregon is not ranked but is 25th in Massey's rankings. But this is very deceptive. Oregon had all of their star players playing together for the first time just two days ago: PaoPao, Sabally, and Rogers have all missed large parts of the season. Furthermore, Oregon has had three games cancelled recently, meaning that we have very little (other than a fill in game against Caroll College) to judge them on. In short, Oregon probably expects their game against us to be their coming-out party, a chance to have their best players playing together for the first time this season against good competition.

Stats are not going to tell us a lot when so many key players were out for so many games: Sabally has started 2 games, Rogers and PaoPao just 1 each. Sedona Prince, their 6'7" forward sophomore, has started every game and averages 12 pts and 5 rebounds in 22 minutes a game. She has not taken a three.

Sydney Parrish, their 6'2" sophomore guard, has also started every game and is averaging 13 points in 28 minutes, shooting the three at 38%.

The other consistent starter is Maddie Scherr, a 5'11" sophomore guard who is averaging 7 points while hitting 36% from three point range.

Nyrara Sabally can be expect to start. This 6'5" redshirt junior forward leads the team at 17ppg---in those games she has actually been able to play (4).

Finally, with their starting point guard PaoPao back, along with USC transfer Endiya Rogers, Oregon suddenly improved its backcourt. PaoPao and Rogers have each given us problems to defend in the past, and having them on the floor at the same time, not to mention senior transfer Alise Hurst who is shooting a prolific 42% of her treys and has started 9 games now--Oregon is on paper a very powerful and well balanced offensive team.

The Oregon we will play on Friday has little in common with the Oregon of November and December. Last year, Oregon had outstanding players but they had not jelled well enough as a team. If they are coming together as a team they will be hard to beat. A healthy Oregon seems more formidable to me than any other teams in the Pac 12 other than ourselves. If they are at full strength and we are still depleted--watch out.

RE: WBB: Stanford vs. Oregon Friday 7pm - joemontes - 01-05-2022

In terms of star power among PAC 12 teams, Oregon is actually 2nd to Stanford

2018: #08 Sedona PRINCE
2020: #08 Sydney PARRISH
2020: #11 Tehina PAOPAO
2020: #17 Kylee WATSON
2020: #19 Maddie SCHERR
2021: #29 Taylor BIGBY
2019: #36 Endyia ROGERS

And then you have 6'5 German Nyara SABALLY who was All-PAC 12 selection last season,
and 5'9 Australian transfer Ahlise HURST who is their leading 3-point shotmaker this season,
averaging 2.6 3-pt made/game at a 40% clip.

In a way, Stanford is lucky that post players BRINK and PRECHTEL were on health protocol
last week and will most likely be able to play. If not, that's going to be a problem
vs 6'7 PRINCE and 6'5 SABALLY.

RE: WBB: Stanford vs. Oregon Friday 7pm - Lorcan - 01-05-2022

It sounds like Oregon State will be postponed this week.

RE: WBB: Stanford vs. Oregon Friday 7pm - BobK - 01-05-2022

The Oregon State game has been Postponed. The Beavers also cancelled their cal game

RE: WBB: Stanford vs. Oregon Friday 7pm - BillBradley - 01-06-2022

(01-05-2022, 02:42 AM)joemontes Wrote: In terms of star power among PAC 12 teams, Oregon is actually 2nd to Stanford

2018: #08 Sedona PRINCE
2020: #08 Sydney PARRISH
2020: #11 Tehina PAOPAO
2020: #17 Kylee WATSON
2020: #19 Maddie SCHERR
2021: #29 Taylor BIGBY
2019: #36 Endyia ROGERS

And then you have 6'5 German Nyara SABALLY who was All-PAC 12 selection last season,
and 5'9 Australian transfer Ahlise HURST who is their leading 3-point shotmaker this season,
averaging 2.6 3-pt made/game at a 40% clip.

In a way, Stanford is lucky that post players BRINK and PRECHTEL were on health protocol
last week and will most likely be able to play. If not, that's going to be a problem
vs 6'7 PRINCE and 6'5 SABALLY.

Question, as I see folks often quote player recruiting rankings. How much weight should the collective senior year of high school recruiting rankings weigh in determining a team's current talent level? For sure you can take a Bueckers or a Brink or a Betts and it's obvious their talent level greatly exceeds their peers, they are likely future pros, and that can be determined early on. But is it even realistic to compare the 20th rated player, the 40th rated player, and the 60th rated player, especially after 2 or 3 years in college? Should we ask Ja Morant and Steph Curry when they came out of high school what they think about recruiting rankings? Are they just outliers or are there tons of those stories? As a subscriber to a couple recruiting services, I can tell you that there's a lot of blatantly-incorrect and stale data out there. A kid who's a top recruit in 9th grade tends to stay rated highly for a long time. Especially if they commit early, many keep their "4-star" or even "5-star" rating, even after significant decline in performance (i.e. due to injury). We've seen many lower rated players overperform and many higher rated players underperform. Josh Huestis (3-star) and Zaire Williams (5-Star) are some examples on the men's side.

Sometimes I really wonder if coaches care about these ratings at all. They probably use the recruiting services as a starting point, but I doubt they look back once they start evaluating the players.

I wonder if anyone has done any analysis on this topic. Meaning - here are a list of players and their recruiting rating as they entered college and here's how they actually performed.

Also not trying to single you out here @joemontes. I just put it in this thread as the question occurred to me while reading your post.

RE: WBB: Stanford vs. Oregon Friday 7pm - 81alum - 01-06-2022

We've played with those statistics in threads here on the Cardboard, long ago. As I recall, those women rated in the top 5 almost never disappointed, those 5-10 were consistent starters, but after that the ratings became much less reliable. We have our own examples in WBB such as Karlie Samuelson, Lili Thompson, Alanna Smith of overachievers, and we also have (but won't state their names) examples of relatively highly rated recruits who never became effective starters. But I don't recall any Stanford WBB players rated in the top 10 that did not prove their worth, except maybe Aly Beebe whose injuries prevented her from ever playing. So no, I don't think the difference between 40 and 60 and 80 ever really predicts success, but the difference between 10 and 20 seems to be significant.

RE: WBB: Stanford vs. Oregon Friday 7pm - BostonCard - 01-06-2022

Look at our team (for simplicity, only the ones who have played 100 minutes):

Anna Wilson #42 in 2016
Lexie Hull #18 in 2018
Lacie Hull unranked in 2018
Haley Jones #1 in 2019
Ashten Prechtel #15 in 2019
Francesca Belibi #19 in 2019
Hannah Jump #50 in 2019
Cameron Brink #3 in 2020

I think the three "stars" on the team are probably Lexie Hull, Haley Jones, and Cameron Brink, and they were three of the four highest ranked players, including the two who were ranked in the top-5.

BC

RE: WBB: Stanford vs. Oregon Friday 7pm - BillBradley - 01-06-2022

Thanks for the data @BC and for the recollection @81 - I think that sums it up well. The data from our current team is interesting in that the highly rated (i.e. Top-20) players are major contributors, but so are an unrated, a #42, and a #50.

RE: WBB: Stanford vs. Oregon Friday 7pm - CompSci87 - 01-07-2022

Quote:Sometimes I really wonder if coaches care about these ratings at all

They don't. The coaching staff do their own player evaluations and form their own opinions. At most they may subscribe to the services to get names of players to look at whom they might have missed otherwise.

RE: WBB: Stanford vs. Oregon Friday 7pm - joemontes - 01-07-2022

It's more difficult to predict the outcome in tonight's game vs. Oregon since we don't know
if BRINK and PRECHTEL can/will play.

If both are available to play, then Stanford should win. Otherwise, it can go either way,
assuming SABALLY, PAOPAO and ROGERS are available.

RE: WBB: Stanford vs. Oregon Friday 7pm - BigEasyCard - 01-07-2022

(01-07-2022, 02:05 AM)joemontes Wrote: It's more difficult to predict the outcome in tonight's game vs. Oregon since we don't know
if BRINK and PRECHTEL can/will play.

If both are available to play, then Stanford should win. Otherwise, it can go either way,
assuming SABALLY, PAOPAO and ROGERS are available.

Agreed. In the Covid era, adhering to health and safety protocols can provide a competitive edge.

Geaux Cardinal!

RE: WBB: Stanford vs. Oregon Friday 7pm - WBB fan - 01-07-2022

A fully vaccinated couple of friends were supposed to be going to the game with us tonight, but . . . the best laid plans etc. But we came up with a work around. They don't get the Pac-12 network, so I have invited them to join us in watching the game. We'll have our own very mini game attendance -- and on the plus side, we can drink wine as we watch and pretend we are actually there. Also on the plus side, no lines in the restroom, hot water to wash hands with, and we don't have to put on masks when we go from our seats to the concession stands (the refrigerator here, and popcorn that is genuinely fresh). But it's still not the same as actually being there!! Oh well, we're making the best of it.

RE: WBB: Stanford vs. Oregon Friday 7pm - CompSci87 - 01-07-2022

(01-07-2022, 03:02 PM)WBB fan Wrote: A fully vaccinated couple of friends were supposed to be going to the game with us tonight, but . . . the best laid plans etc. But we came up with a work around. They don't get the Pac-12 network, so I have invited them to join us in watching the game. We'll have our own very mini game attendance -- and on the plus side, we can drink wine as we watch and pretend we are actually there. Also on the plus side, no lines in the restroom, hot water to wash hands with, and we don't have to put on masks when we go from our seats to the concession stands (the refrigerator here, and popcorn that is genuinely fresh). But it's still not the same as actually being there!! Oh well, we're making the best of it.

Too bad you don't get to meet BobK and friends at halftime today!

RE: WBB: Stanford vs. Oregon Friday 7pm - Softball Fan - 01-07-2022

If all players on both teams are healthy this could be a tough, exciting game.

On Sydney Parrish (sophomore 6'2" guard):

HEAD COACH KELLY GRAVES

"In my opinion, Sydney is the best pure shooter in the country..."

RE: WBB: Stanford vs. Oregon Friday 7pm - BobK - 01-07-2022

https://youtu.be/HXGz8i0I2L0

Some Day We’ll be Together

RE: WBB: Stanford vs. Oregon Friday 7pm - Card10Fan - 01-07-2022

Hoping we have our full roster available. I thought I saw some social media posts of Alyssa Jerome back in Toronto this week. I wonder if she was the player Tara mentioned was in the car accident. Will be watching to see if she’s back tonight.

RE: WBB: Stanford vs. Oregon Friday 7pm - crackpot - 01-07-2022

Charlie Creme's latest is about how the Pac-12 postponements is costing the conference tourney bids.

I know that teams in other conferences are cancelling or postponing games, but it doesn't seem like anywhere near the rate of the Pac-12. Are the others not required to test, or what?

RE: WBB: Stanford vs. Oregon Friday 7pm - teejers1 - 01-07-2022

(01-07-2022, 04:38 PM)crackpot Wrote: Charlie Creme's latest is about how the Pac-12 postponements is costing the conference tourney bids.

I know that teams in other conferences are cancelling or postponing games, but it doesn't seem like anywhere near the rate of the Pac-12. Are the others not required to test, or what?

I can only speak to small colleges where the testing requirements diverge dramatically. One team tests every other day; another team tests only those who are symptomatic. Guess which team has more DQs?

It's ridiculous.

Even more ridiculous, said often-testing-school has a policy of shutting down team activities if 3 positive tests in program - not on roster - in program. And this on a team with 18 on roster due to Covid do-over. Meanwhile, Stanford has 5 out on Covid and plays at WSU.

The rule should be: if you have enough non-Covid players to compete, you do it. That minimum can be 7 or 8 or 9, but you certainly don't need 10 players to compete. And given that none of the kids testing positive even feel sick, it makes the restrictions all the more silly.

Look, we are coming to the point as a society of just dealing with this as another kind of flu bug. Might as well get on with it (though getting as many vaxxed/boostered as possible, as well as prudent safety measures should continue for a while). BTW, did anyone else watch the Knicks-Celtics game last night at MSG? NY was blasted by Omicron - not that long ago - yet MSG was packed and from TV the % of mask-wearers looked to be in teens.

Let the kids (college, HS, junior high) play, unless they test positive.

RE: WBB: Stanford vs. Oregon Friday 7pm - 2006alum - 01-07-2022

Oh good, can we please turn every thread into a debate about COVID protocols? Nearly two years into this pandemic, what I'm really hankering for is some more armchair epidemiology and public health policymaking from bored sports fans.

---

Other than our game against Arizona, and maybe our away weekend at the Oregons, this is the game that worries me the most. It's dang hard to scout a team full of players who have barely played this season, and Oregon is going to come out very, very hungry, because this is one of their only opportunities for a really high quality win for the remainder of the season. Without question, Oregon's roster has enough talent to beat us, and if we're down a few players because of COVID or other injuries, this one could easily get away from us.

RE: WBB: Stanford vs. Oregon Friday 7pm - BobK - 01-07-2022

In my area hard for an outsider to go to an indoor HS game. Milpitas school district just went to zoom for the next 2 weeks.
Rule is play with a minimum of 7 scholarship players.