Outside Topic Giants/Niners 2022 thread - Printable Version
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Giants/Niners 2022 thread - lex24 - 01-01-2022
Looking forward to seeing Lance and Mills.
See https://thecardboard.org/board/showthread.php?tid=21717 for the Giants/Niners 2021 thread
RE: Giants/Niners 2021 thread - lex24 - 01-02-2022
Lance to start?
RE: Giants/Niners 2021 thread - DC 86 - 01-02-2022
(01-02-2022, 10:12 AM)lex24 Wrote: Lance to start?
Confirmed.
RE: Giants/Niners 2021 thread - French Rage - 01-02-2022
WFT leading PHI at the half, helps the 49ers. If I'm doing the math right, SF beating HOU, WFT beating PHI, an NO losing a game puts the 49ers in.
RE: Giants/Niners 2021 thread - Giants - 01-02-2022
(01-02-2022, 12:30 PM)French Rage Wrote: WFT leading PHI at the half, helps the 49ers. If I'm doing the math right, SF beating HOU, WFT beating PHI, an NO losing a game puts the 49ers in.
No need to worry about Philadelphia. SF only needs a win and a NO loss to clinch a playoff spot.
SF beat the Eagles and Vikings earlier in the season to win tiebreakers v. them.
RE: Giants/Niners 2021 thread - DC 86 - 01-02-2022
(01-02-2022, 12:41 PM)Giants Wrote:(01-02-2022, 12:30 PM)French Rage Wrote: WFT leading PHI at the half, helps the 49ers. If I'm doing the math right, SF beating HOU, WFT beating PHI, an NO losing a game puts the 49ers in.
No need to worry about Philadelphia. SF only needs a win and a NO loss to clinch a playoff spot.
SF beat the Eagles and Vikings earlier in the season to win tiebreakers v. them.
Not to be pedantic but SF-win and NO-tie also clinches a playoff spot.
RE: Giants/Niners 2021 thread - French Rage - 01-02-2022
Gotta win this one first. Niners take the lead thanks to the two most gifted ref calls in history.
RE: Giants/Niners 2021 thread - BostonCard - 01-02-2022
Both Mills and Lance are 13/19 with 1 TD and 1 INT, though Lance has thrown for almost twice as many yards.
BC
lex24 - lex24 - 01-02-2022
Not a good day for the Niners. Yes, they won. But so did Philly and New Orleans. And Arizona beats Dallas. Double whammy. That means Rams need to win to take Division. At 11-5, Dallas is, I believe, locked in 4 seed. If I’m right on that, they have nothing to play for against Philadelphia.
The Niners probably aren’t going to win in LA. (Liked chances a lot more if Rams had division locked up). If they lose and Eagles and New Orleans win, Niners are out.
New Orleans plays at Atlanta.
If they don’t make the playoffs they have only themselves to blame. They blew several games.
Lance played ok today. Showed some glimpses. Shanahan played it pretty close to the vest.
Just glad Mills got through the game. Niners hit him a lot. Especially in second half.
RE: Giants/Niners 2021 thread - Mick - 01-02-2022
I thought Davis showed some good things. He was 21 of 32 for 163 yards with 1 TD and 1 INT. Was sacked 3 times for 27 yards. 75.4 passer rating. Ranked #24 in this week's NFL passer rating, per ESPN, ahead of Darnold, Lawrence, Tagovailoa, Dalton, Boyle and Huntley. Mac Jones #3 this week, BTW.
Trey Lance was 16 of 23 for 249 yards, 2 TDs and 1 INT. Sacked once for 8 yards. 116.0 passer rating. He's ranked #9 in NFL passer rating (so far), per ESPN.
http://www.espn.com/nfl/weekly/leaders/_/type/passing/sort/qbrat
And FWLIW, Elijah Mitchell is #3 after his 21 carry, 11 yard performance. Brandon Aiyuk was #7 after 4 catches, 94 yards.
RE: lex24 - teejers1 - 01-02-2022
(01-02-2022, 05:39 PM)lex24 Wrote: Not a good day for the Niners. Yes, they won. But so did Philly and New Orleans. And Arizona beats Dallas. Double whammy. That means Rams need to win to take Division. At 11-5, Dallas is, I believe, locked in 4 seed. If I’m right on that, they have nothing to play for against Philadelphia.
The Niners probably aren’t going to win in LA. (Liked chances a lot more if Rams had division locked up). If they lose and Eagles and New Orleans win, Niners are out.
New Orleans plays at Atlanta.
If they don’t make the playoffs they have only themselves to blame. They blew several games.
Lance played ok today. Showed some glimpses. Shanahan played it pretty close to the vest.
Just glad Mills got through the game. Niners hit him a lot. Especially in second half.
Correct down the line.
Best hope (I'm assuming SF will lose at LA): Cowboys over Philly. Dallas is better; however, as you note, they may have nothing to play for (and may opt to sit key players). OTOH, maybe they DON'T want to head into playoffs with a 2-game losing streak.
I've never said this before, but . . . Go Cowboys!
Edit: Learned yesterday that Cowboys-Philly is irrelevant, thanks to 3-team tie-breaker rules. In retrospect, it would have been MUCH better for New Orleans to have run the table (i.e., beat Miami last week and ATL next week) for SF. Indeed, if that happened, 'Niners would be in. Brutal (and strange that NO losing a game could DQ 'Niners from the playoffs). When things unfold like this, it kinda has a "not meant to be" vibe.
RE: lex24 - lex24 - 01-02-2022
(01-02-2022, 06:50 PM)teejers1 Wrote:(01-02-2022, 05:39 PM)lex24 Wrote: Not a good day for the Niners. Yes, they won. But so did Philly and New Orleans. And Arizona beats Dallas. Double whammy. That means Rams need to win to take Division. At 11-5, Dallas is, I believe, locked in 4 seed. If I’m right on that, they have nothing to play for against Philadelphia.
The Niners probably aren’t going to win in LA. (Liked chances a lot more if Rams had division locked up). If they lose and Eagles and New Orleans win, Niners are out.
New Orleans plays at Atlanta.
If they don’t make the playoffs they have only themselves to blame. They blew several games.
Lance played ok today. Showed some glimpses. Shanahan played it pretty close to the vest.
Just glad Mills got through the game. Niners hit him a lot. Especially in second half.
Correct down the line.
Best hope (I'm assuming SF will lose at LA): Cowboys over Philly. Dallas is better; however, as you note, they may have nothing to play for (and may opt to sit key players). OTOH, maybe they DON'T want to head into playoffs with a 2-game losing streak.
I've never said this before, but . . . Go Cowboys!
Agree. Atlanta has a shot at home vs NO. But not great.
RE: Giants/Niners 2021 thread - cardcrimson - 01-02-2022
(01-02-2022, 05:42 PM)Mick Wrote: I thought Davis showed some good things. He was 21 of 32 for 163 yards with 1 TD and 1 INT. Was sacked 3 times for 27 yards. 75.4 passer rating. Ranked #24 in this week's NFL passer rating, per ESPN, ahead of Darnold, Lawrence, Tagovailoa, Dalton, Boyle and Huntley. Mac Jones #3 this week, BTW.
Trey Lance was 16 of 23 for 249 yards, 2 TDs and 1 INT. Sacked once for 8 yards. 116.0 passer rating. He's ranked #9 in NFL passer rating (so far), per ESPN.
http://www.espn.com/nfl/weekly/leaders/_/type/passing/sort/qbrat
And FWLIW, Elijah Mitchell is #3 after his 21 carry, 11 yard performance. Brandon Aiyuk was #7 after 4 catches, 94 yards.
Didn't watch much of the game, but have to assume Mitchell had more yards than 11. Saw a big gain negated by holding. Aiyuk had a couple of big catches and a lot of YAC, at least from what I heard on the post game radio.
Mac Jones a big game? Who would have ever expected that? Glad Mills survived.
lex24 - lex24 - 01-03-2022
I need to correct my playoff scenario. Philly is in, no matter what. So their game against Dallas is somewhat meaningless. (Only significance is if Niners and Philly are in a two way tie, Niners will get higher seed.).
The reason is that in a three way tie with Philly and NO, Niners are odd team out. So, beat LA or NO must lose or tie.
I put Niners odds at 40%. If they miss, this season may be correctly characterized as a bust.
RE: Giants/Niners 2021 thread - BostonCard - 01-03-2022
Niners are 5.5 point underdogs, and New Orleans is a 4.5 point favorite.
Historically, that translates to a 31% chance of winning for the Niners and a 67% chance of winning for New Orleans. Thus, the chance of a Niner win or a New Orleans tie or loss is 60%. So a bit better than your subjective feeling.
BC
RE: Giants/Niners 2021 thread - DC 86 - 01-03-2022
(01-03-2022, 02:12 PM)BostonCard Wrote: Niners are 5.5 point underdogs, and New Orleans is a 4.5 point favorite.
Historically, that translates to a 31% chance of winning for the Niners and a 67% chance of winning for New Orleans. Thus, the chance of a Niner win or a New Orleans tie or loss is 60%. So a bit better than your subjective feeling.
BC
The 49ers not making the playoffs requires both the Rams winning (69% chance) and Saints winning (67% chance).
So isn't the likelihood of the 49ers making the playoffs [1 - (0.69 x 0.67)] which equals 53.77% ?
lex24 - lex24 - 01-03-2022
(01-03-2022, 05:12 PM)DC 86 Wrote:(01-03-2022, 02:12 PM)BostonCard Wrote: Niners are 5.5 point underdogs, and New Orleans is a 4.5 point favorite.
Historically, that translates to a 31% chance of winning for the Niners and a 67% chance of winning for New Orleans. Thus, the chance of a Niner win or a New Orleans tie or loss is 60%. So a bit better than your subjective feeling.
BC
The 49ers not making the playoffs requires both the Rams winning (69% chance) and Saints winning (67% chance).
So isn't the likelihood of the 49ers making the playoffs [1 - (0.69 x 0.67)] which equals 53.77% ?
Way too advanced math for me…..
RE: Giants/Niners 2021 thread - French Rage - 01-03-2022
Seems to me everyone is saying it's a tossup plus/minus a few percentage points.
lex24 - lex24 - 01-03-2022
(01-03-2022, 10:57 PM)French Rage Wrote: Seems to me everyone is saying it's a tossup plus/minus a few percentage points.
Three Niner DBs (K’Wuan Williams, Dontae Johnson and Jimmy Ward) now on Covid list. All three have slot receiver coverage duties. Cooper Kupp lines up in the slot. Not good.
RE: lex24 - cardcrimson - 01-03-2022
(01-03-2022, 09:57 PM)lex24 Wrote:(01-03-2022, 05:12 PM)DC 86 Wrote:(01-03-2022, 02:12 PM)BostonCard Wrote: Niners are 5.5 point underdogs, and New Orleans is a 4.5 point favorite.
Historically, that translates to a 31% chance of winning for the Niners and a 67% chance of winning for New Orleans. Thus, the chance of a Niner win or a New Orleans tie or loss is 60%. So a bit better than your subjective feeling.
BC
The 49ers not making the playoffs requires both the Rams winning (69% chance) and Saints winning (67% chance).
So isn't the likelihood of the 49ers making the playoffs [1 - (0.69 x 0.67)] which equals 53.77% ?
Way too advanced math for me…..
Really impressive calculations and analysis from a Stanford board. Nerd Nation? What a hoot!