Men's BB: Stanford @ Oregon, 6 pm Thursday, ESPN2 - Printable Version
+- The CardBoard (https://thecardboard.org/board)
+-- Forum: C-House! (https://thecardboard.org/board/forum-4.html)
+--- Forum: The CardBoard (https://thecardboard.org/board/forum-5.html)
+--- Thread: Men's BB: Stanford @ Oregon, 6 pm Thursday, ESPN2 (/thread-22939.html)
+- The CardBoard (https://thecardboard.org/board)
+-- Forum: C-House! (https://thecardboard.org/board/forum-4.html)
+--- Forum: The CardBoard (https://thecardboard.org/board/forum-5.html)
+--- Thread: Men's BB: Stanford @ Oregon, 6 pm Thursday, ESPN2 (/thread-22939.html)
Men's BB: Stanford @ Oregon, 6 pm Thursday, ESPN2 - Papa John - 02-10-2022
The Stanford men (#88 NET) travel to Eugene to play their 3rd game in 5 days against the Fighting Ducks (#50 NET). This is Stanford's third chance in four games for a Quad 1 win, so maybe the third time is the charm. But it won't be easy. Since losing to Stanford and Jaiden Delaire's buzzer beater on December 12, Oregon has gone 10-2 with home losses to Baylor and Colorado the only blemishes and road wins against UCLA and USC. Oregon is currently 3rd in the conference but just 1/2 game behind 2nd-place UCLA and two games behind Arizona. Stanford is treading water in 7th place, two full games behind 5th place USC. I'm still anticipating that 4th-place WSU and 6th-place UW will fall in the standings as their schedules become much more challenging for the rest of February.
If Stanford wants to earn a first-round bye in the conference tournament and legit consideration for the NCAA tournament, tonight's game feels like a must-win to me. And the fact that Stanford is playing must-win games in early February is cause for concern. On the other hand, I thought a win at USC was too much to ask, and I was certainly wrong then. Add to that the observation by most on this board that Stanford has actually played up to its potential the past two games--much better than Washington and not up to UCLA's talent level--and a win over the Ducks is not unfathomable.
Oregon has more than one weapon but is led by guard Will Richardson. WR, in conference games, has scored 17.6 ppg and is shooting 47% (not a typo) 3 pt FG. WR also has a 1.9 assist-to-turnover ratio.
After a bad start to the season, Oregon has done a lot of things well in conference play. (The game-to-game improvement is not a surprise considering that Dana Altman is an excellent coach.) Oregon is 2nd in FG% made, 3-pt FG% made, points scored per game, 3-pt FG% defended and, unfortunately for Stanford, turnovers forced per game.
The Ducks have weaknesses, too. They are 11th in FT% and 9th in rebounding margin (net -1.5 per game).
The formula for Stanford winning isn't too complicated. Stanford shoots a *lot* of threes, so it needs to make, say, 40% of them. Stanford needs to take care of the ball and limit points off of turnovers. In other words, Stanford will have to overcome its weaknesses--which are Oregon's strengths--to win.
One other way to look at it. Oregon scores on average 76.5 points per game in conference play. Stanford has scored at least 77 points twice in 13 conference games: versus ASU and UW.
ESPN BPI gives Stanford an 18.1% chance of winning tonight's game in Eugene, which is higher than the probability of Stanford winning at USC. So let's shock the world and get this done!
RE: Men's BB: Stanford @ Oregon, 6 pm Thursday, ESPN2 - teejers1 - 02-10-2022
(02-10-2022, 11:22 AM)Papa John Wrote: The Stanford men (#88 NET) travel to Eugene to play their 3rd game in 5 days against the Fighting Ducks (#50 NET). This is Stanford's third chance in four games for a Quad 1 win, so maybe the third time is the charm. But it won't be easy. Since losing to Stanford and Jaiden Delaire's buzzer beater on December 12, Oregon has gone 10-2 with home losses to Baylor and Colorado the only blemishes and road wins against UCLA and USC. Oregon is currently 3rd in the conference but just 1/2 game behind 2nd-place UCLA and two games behind Arizona. Stanford is treading water in 7th place, two full games behind 5th place USC. I'm still anticipating that 4th-place WSU and 6th-place UW will fall in the standings as their schedules become much more challenging for the rest of February.
If Stanford wants to earn a first-round bye in the conference tournament and legit consideration for the NCAA tournament, tonight's game feels like a must-win to me. And the fact that Stanford is playing must-win games in early February is cause for concern. On the other hand, I thought a win at USC was too much to ask, and I was certainly wrong then. Add to that the observation by most on this board that Stanford has actually played up to its potential the past two games--much better than Washington and not up to UCLA's talent level--and a win over the Ducks is not unfathomable.
Oregon has more than one weapon but is led by guard Will Richardson. WR, in conference games, has scored 17.6 ppg and is shooting 47% (not a typo) 3 pt FG. WR also has a 1.9 assist-to-turnover ratio.
After a bad start to the season, Oregon has done a lot of things well in conference play. (The game-to-game improvement is not a surprise considering that Dana Altman is an excellent coach.) Oregon is 2nd in FG% made, 3-pt FG% made, points scored per game, 3-pt FG% defended and, unfortunately for Stanford, turnovers forced per game.
The Ducks have weaknesses, too. They are 11th in FT% and 9th in rebounding margin (net -1.5 per game).
The formula for Stanford winning isn't too complicated. Stanford shoots a *lot* of threes, so it needs to make, say, 40% of them. Stanford needs to take care of the ball and limit points off of turnovers. In other words, Stanford will have to overcome its weaknesses--which are Oregon's strengths--to win.
One other way to look at it. Oregon scores on average 76.5 points per game in conference play. Stanford has scored at least 77 points twice in 13 conference games: versus ASU and UW.
ESPN BPI gives Stanford an 18.1% chance of winning tonight's game in Eugene, which is higher than the probability of Stanford winning at USC. So let's shock the world and get this done!
I just don't see an Altman-coached team losing to this Stanford team in Eugene at this time of the year. His teams improve over the course of the season . . . or so it seems . . . every year. If Stanford were to somehow find a way to win, then I think it would be the best win of the year . . . by a wide margin. It wouldn't shock me if the game is a 20 point Oregon win. Really hope I'm wrong.
RE: Men's BB: Stanford @ Oregon, 6 pm Thursday, ESPN2 - winflop - 02-10-2022
This is a win they need to get after losing at home to Wazzu. Can't afford more than a couple losses the rest of the season to have any chance at the dance.
RE: Men's BB: Stanford @ Oregon, 6 pm Thursday, ESPN2 - needle - 02-10-2022
I fully expect a close game. Very excited to see if the team can pull it off.
This is the last best chance for Stanford to kickoff a serious run at an NCAA bid.
RE: Men's BB: Stanford @ Oregon, 6 pm Thursday, ESPN2 - SamuelMcF - 02-10-2022
(02-10-2022, 01:54 PM)winflop Wrote: This is a win they need to get after losing at home to Wazzu. Can't afford more than a couple losses the rest of the season to have any chance at the dance.
Agree that this would be an "over the hump" type of win.
More realistically, I see a loss here and a loss to Arizona. Winning the other 5 (all definitely winnable) games puts us at "need to win a couple games or the whole Pac-12 tournament to get in" territory. Unfortunately my gut tells me that neither of those two things - winning all 5 winnable games, and/or winning multiple rounds of the tournament - will happen, and we're NIT-bound.
When the above happens, we'll have a "should Haase be fired" discussion, Haase won't be fired regardless so there's no real point in the discussion, and nearly the entire team will return for next season. The pivotal question will be if a) Ingram returns as well (my suspicion is he will), and b) to a lesser extent Delaire. If a) or a) and b), there's considerable hype. If b), more NIT. If neither a) nor b), yikes.
RE: Men's BB: Stanford @ Oregon, 6 pm Thursday, ESPN2 - martyup - 02-10-2022
If Hasse fails to pull Delaire when he starts trying to play one-on-five and/or starts passing the ball to empty air, we don't have a chance to beat OR.
RE: Men's BB: Stanford @ Oregon, 6 pm Thursday, ESPN2 - bl82 - 02-10-2022
(02-10-2022, 03:58 PM)martyup Wrote: If Hasse fails to pull Delaire when he starts trying to play one-on-five and/or starts passing the ball to empty air, we don't have a chance to beat OR.
For that reason and for his propensity for committing bad fouls, I wonder if he should be our sixth man. We could start Angel or Raynaud or even Murrell for the first 4-5 minutes and Delaire could come in as a designated offensive weapon rather than as someone who disrupts our offensive flow right from the outset.
RE: Men's BB: Stanford @ Oregon, 6 pm Thursday, ESPN2 - TonyLima - 02-10-2022
Note at 7:28 first half. Only 3 Oregon players have scored.
RE: Men's BB: Stanford @ Oregon, 6 pm Thursday, ESPN2 - Sam Leopold - 02-10-2022
What is Haase's plan for all these timeouts he's frying?
Stuff jalapenos with them, and then serve them to his team with ranch sauce at halftime?
RE: Men's BB: Stanford @ Oregon, 6 pm Thursday, ESPN2 - burger - 02-10-2022
That was bad. I don't understand how we're only down 8. Feels like we should be down 20.
RE: Men's BB: Stanford @ Oregon, 6 pm Thursday, ESPN2 - TonyLima - 02-10-2022
Oregon player lowers his shoulder, knocks over Stanford player. Foul, Stanford.
But that’s no excuse. Ducks offense reminds me of Stanford women. Lots of passing to get someone open. Stanford? Not so much.
(02-10-2022, 07:46 PM)Sam Leopold Wrote: What is Haase's plan for all these timeouts he's frying?
Stuff jalapenos with them, and then serve them to his team with ranch sauce at halftime?
One was called by a player during a tie-up. Stanford had the possession arrow. Lack of situational awareness.
RE: Men's BB: Stanford @ Oregon, 6 pm Thursday, ESPN2 - JJJ - 02-10-2022
Tuned in halfway through and I thought I heard Walton say he thought Stanford was “in” (the tourney)…
Angel playing a little more to his potential here as we pull within 6.
RE: Men's BB: Stanford @ Oregon, 6 pm Thursday, ESPN2 - Sam Leopold - 02-10-2022
A toast to Will Richardson, who is doing his best to chuck and foul us back into the game. Now if only some more of the Ducks (and some more of our players) could get with that program......
RE: Men's BB: Stanford @ Oregon, 6 pm Thursday, ESPN2 - Card10Fan - 02-10-2022
6 minutes left in the game and we’re 2-18 on three pointers in the game and on pace for 20 turnovers. Hard to win with those stats.
Oregon has not played their A game but we’ve been even worse. Feels like a game we could have won if some things went our way. Not gonna happen though. Sigh…
RE: Men's BB: Stanford @ Oregon, 6 pm Thursday, ESPN2 - JJJ - 02-10-2022
I hope MOC is ok. We can’t afford to lose him but that’s not the point.
RE: Men's BB: Stanford @ Oregon, 6 pm Thursday, ESPN2 - burger - 02-10-2022
(02-10-2022, 09:01 PM)JJJ Wrote: I hope MOC is ok. We can’t afford to lose him but that’s not the point.
Armchair doctoring: looks like a bad sprain at a minimum. Ugh.
With Taitz out, too, our backcourt just got awfully thin.
RE: Men's BB: Stanford @ Oregon, 6 pm Thursday, ESPN2 - needle - 02-10-2022
*sigh*
Saw plenty of guys getting their floor burns, but not nearly enough shooting to come close against a good (not great) team.
It is criminal that Raynaud hasn’t gotten more minutes this season.
Really hope MOC just rolled an ankle.
EDIT: Fixed spelling. Sorry, Maxime!
RE: Men's BB: Stanford @ Oregon, 6 pm Thursday, ESPN2 - old spanish trail - 02-10-2022
(02-10-2022, 08:26 PM)JJJ Wrote: Tuned in halfway through and I thought I heard Walton say he thought Stanford was “in” (the tourney)…
Angel playing a little more to his potential here as we pull within 6.
He did. He also said "Pac 12, Conference of Champions" would get 7 teams in the tournament.
My Gawd, let Reynaud play. The offense is so much more fluid with him. It loosens the D for Ingram, Jones and Angel, and McConnell. They begin to hit shots, duh. And, his D was good enuf. If Reynaud fouls, ok take him out. But otherwise, he needs to play.
(02-10-2022, 07:55 PM)TonyLima Wrote: Oregon player lowers his shoulder, knocks over Stanford player. Foul, Stanford.
But that’s no excuse. Ducks offense reminds me of Stanford women. Lots of passing to get someone open. Stanford? Not so much.
(02-10-2022, 07:46 PM)Sam Leopold Wrote: What is Haase's plan for all these timeouts he's frying?
Stuff jalapenos with them, and then serve them to his team with ranch sauce at halftime?
One was called by a player during a tie-up. Stanford had the possession arrow. Lack of situational awareness.
I think Jones was afraid he was going to lose possession, so he called timeout.
RE: Men's BB: Stanford @ Oregon, 6 pm Thursday, ESPN2 - burger - 02-10-2022
Count me among the Raynaud fans, too. The offense scores 6 more points per 100 possessions with Raynaud in the game than with Keefe. Keefe has improved a ton this year, but Raynaud's ceiling is higher. And if Raynaud has issues with fouls or turnovers, he needs playing time to work on those.
Not using Raynaud is yet another in the long series of puzzling lineup decisions by Haase.
RE: Men's BB: Stanford @ Oregon, 6 pm Thursday, ESPN2 - old spanish trail - 02-10-2022
(02-10-2022, 09:39 PM)burger Wrote: Count me among the Raynaud fans, too. The offense scores 6 more points per 100 possessions with Raynaud in the game than with Keefe. Keefe has improved a ton this year, but Raynaud's ceiling is higher. And if Raynaud has issues with fouls or turnovers, he needs playing time to work on those.
Not using Raynaud is yet another in the long series of puzzling lineup decisions by Haase.
You are right. I should have noted that Keefe has improved a ton. The problem is that the offense just stops while he looks around with the ball. And, Reynaud is not afraid to shoot. Walton exaggerates a "bit" but he says Raynaud will be leading the Pac in 2 years. Lets hope he stays around that long.