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Women's Tennis: Pac-12 Champs and looking ahead to NCAAs - ColoradoTree - 04-25-2022

For a team that seemed to limp into the conference tournament, #18 Stanford figured out a way to play its best tennis at the right time. 

They rolled over Oregon in the second round as expected, and then it was a Friday evening semifinal against #16 UCLA, with the winner likely locking up NCAA hosting duties for the first and second rounds. As usual, UCLA doubles came out strong, even against our reshuffled doubles lineup of the last couple of weeks, and it was the same old story, down 1-0 to the Bruins going into singles, and with a dangerous lineup looming. Choy was the first off court, leveling the match with a quick 6-2, 6-2 win. That was the only easy singles match of the day, however. Yepifanova was next off court with a great comeback win over #53 Elysia Bolton, keeping the pressure on in the third. Blake toughed out a 7-5, 6-4 win over Vagramov on Court 3 to put us one point away, but with Ma faltering in the third set and Houghton's match a coin flip, it looked like it had to be Xu on 5. And Xu came through with a second-set tiebreaker that clinched the match (not hard to imagine that had she lost that tiebreaker, Forbes quickly dispatches Ma and the momentum overtakes both Houghton and Xu). Great team win and one of those 4-1 matches that was a heck of lot closer than the scoreline. 

Because ASU knocked off top-seeded Cal in the other semifinal, there was an opportunity for revenge over the Sun Devils in Saturday's championship match. This time, Stanford took a hard-fought doubles point, and Blake served up a double bagel to Gallagher on Court 3 to make it 2-0. Houghton lost relatively quickly on 4, but Ma put Stanford one point away by avenging her loss to Morlet a few weeks ago with a 6-3, 6-4 win. Then, in a somewhat surprising reversal from the regular season match, where Choy dominated Argyrokastriti, it was the Sun Devil sophomore getting revenge and getting the match back to 3-2 Stanford. That left the two matches in third sets, but Stanford had the upper hand in both. In the end, it was Yepifanova clinching the conference title with a 6-7, 6-2, 6-2 win!

With the win, Stanford secured the Pac-12's automatic NCAA bid and almost assuredly will host the first two rounds of the NCAA tournament before likely heading on the road to a super regional if they get past that. The postseason draw will be announced on the NCAA's live selection show on May 2 at 3:30pm. But we'll get a little bit better of an idea when the new ITA rankings drop on April 27. Wins over #37 Oregon, #16 UCLA, and #20 ASU should get Stanford into the top 16, but they still don't have enough marquee wins to climb higher. That's enough to host, but I'd guess they'll be the 15 seed and be in line to travel to Norman for a date with 2nd-seeded Oklahoma in a super regional that will be a very heavy lift. 

I'm still not as confident in this team as I'd like to be, but that was a heck of a fight against UCLA and great finishing against ASU. 

A good season for the Pac-12 overall. Should be two regional hosts (Cal and Stanford), with Cal playing itself out of a super regional hosting spot with its tournament performance, and three regional 2nd seeds that no one will want to play, in ASU, UCLA, and USC. Washington and Oregon should be in as 3 seeds somewhere and they've got the capacity to pull an upset.

Sakibomb25 - Sakibomb25 - 04-25-2022

Is it a bit concerning Ma hasn’t been playing as well as she had been in the beginning of the year?

RE: Women's Tennis: Pac-12 Champs and looking ahead to NCAAs - TheFarm07 - 04-25-2022

Thanks ColoradoTree! I was hoping and looking forward to an update from you after our conference tournament run.

Saturday was the first time I watched our team this season and it seemed that though Ma is pretty consistent, she is not as aggressive as Yepifanova, but on the other hand, Yepifanova is more streaky, as evident by her blowing a 5-1 lead in the first set to lose it in a tiebreak, but then got hot again and only dropped four games in the final two sets.

I know Ma's been struggling lately, dropping a few matches in the top slot. What was the likelihood of Forood switching Ma and Yepifanova in the top two spots or does that not happen very often? Or does it even matter very much?

What are your keys to us making a deep run into the NCAA tournament? As you mentioned, our conference title will probably let us host the first couple rounds but then as one of the lower seeded teams, we'll have to probably travel to the home courts of a top seed. I know we've pulled out title runs as a lower seed before, but what needs to happen for us to have that magic again this year?

As always, as a tennis fan (but not a close follower of the collegiate scene), it's always great to get your insights.

RE: Sakibomb25 - ColoradoTree - 04-25-2022

(04-25-2022, 11:18 AM)Sakibomb25 Wrote:  Is it a bit concerning Ma hasn’t been playing as well as she had been in the beginning of the year?

Oh, for sure. With our depth being less reliable than in past years, we need her to come in and shut down top players from other teams. She was outstanding for the entire dual match season but then hit a four-match snag where she lost to ASU's Morlet and UW's Wong and then got crushed by WSU's Bayerlova and Cal's Giavara. If we've got a shot at a deep NCAA run, we need her to go toe to toe with the best in the country.

RE: Women's Tennis: Pac-12 Champs and looking ahead to NCAAs - ColoradoTree - 04-25-2022

TheFarm07, great questions. 

As for whether Lele would swap Ma and Yepifanova in the lineup, it's something we see more often from other teams than from Stanford. While you're allowed to shift a player by one line per match, you are also obligated to put your players out there from best to worst, and I don't think Ma's dip in form changes Lele's mind that Yepifanova is now a better player than Ma. 

Sometimes players really are a coin flip as to who's better, but I don't think that's the case here. Lele would be justified in switching if she wanted to, and if she thought that would light a fire under Ma, she might do it. But she tweaks less than most coaches I've seen. 

And as far as keys for a deep run, I'll throw these out there:

1. Doubles. As our depth isn't as solid as it often is in singles, needing to go out there and take four out of six singles matches against top teams is such a tall order. 

2. We need Yepifanova to be a force at 2 and Choy to be the same at 6. Any NCAA wins out of the #4 line are gravy, and given that Ma will be in battles with elite players most matches, we're in very dangerous territory if we're counting on her to win. But 

3. Blake and Xu have been good, but those are our next most likely wins, and to have a shot, we need them in top form. Blake seems like she's been on a good run of form lately, and for her to double bagel Gallagher to get revenge for a loss last time around is just great to see. Xu's 16-2 dual record is great, but she also has a handful of concerningly close matches in those 16 wins, so we need her to step up and be the sort of NCAA freshman we've had in years past, like Lampl and Lord at 5 and 6 their freshman year. 

4. We need to finish matches. Momentum is absolutely a real thing in college tennis, and when you have a team on the ropes, you simply cannot let them get their breath back. There are no safe leads against top teams. There are only wins and losses, and you need to take maximum advantage of a team while they're reeling. 
 
We'll see soon enough! The NCAA tries to avoid regular-season rematches in the first couple of rounds, so usually that means regional pods don't have intra-conference battles. If that holds true this year, expect a team like Michigan, Tennessee, UCF, or Baylor to be the #2 seed in our regional, as we'll be in line for one of the teams that just misses out on hosting themselves.

RE: Women's Tennis: Pac-12 Champs and looking ahead to NCAAs - TheFarm07 - 04-25-2022

Thanks ColoradoTree! I look forward to your preview when the draw comes out

RE: Women's Tennis: Pac-12 Champs and looking ahead to NCAAs - ColoradoTree - 04-27-2022

New ITA team and individual rankings dropped today, and here's how we look along with the teams on our schedule:

3. Texas (W)
4. UVA (L)
8. Pepperdine (L)
11. Cal (L)
15. Stanford
17. ASU (L, W)
18. UCLA(W)
19. USC (W)
27. USCB (L)
30. Arkansas (W)
37. Washington (W)
38. Oregon (W, W)
49. Arizona (W)
51.  Utah (W)

And for singles, we have #23 Yepifanova, #24 Ma, and #105 Xu. In doubles, Blake/Ma are the 14th-ranked pair, but we're unranked otherwise. 

Washington and Oregon are probably on the right side of the bubble, while Arizona and Utah will be left home.

RE: Women's Tennis: Pac-12 Champs and looking ahead to NCAAs - ColoradoTree - 05-05-2022

GUESS WHO IS BACK ON THE ROSTER FOR NCAAs: 

MICHAELA FLIPPING GORDON.

http://web1.ncaa.org/tennis/exec/lineup?doWhat=listing&sportCode=WTE&division=1&fromLink=Y

She is listed at #5, and I just checked the school's website and she's back on there as well. The lineup wasn't protested, so it's final for NCAAs. Oh my lanta!

RE: Women's Tennis: Pac-12 Champs and looking ahead to NCAAs - BobK - 05-05-2022

Wow. There’s a first for everything
Thanks Colorado

RE: Women's Tennis: Pac-12 Champs and looking ahead to NCAAs - ColoradoTree - 05-05-2022

This pushes Xu down to 6, where she should absolutely roll. What a roll of the dice going into NCAAs! We had no inkling she was even practicing!
It's a little terrifying having a cold player go into NCAAs, but I assume Lele knows what she's doing. A warmup match against SE Missouri State, and maybe she's all systems go? What a curveball!

RE: Women's Tennis: Pac-12 Champs and looking ahead to NCAAs - ColoradoTree - 05-05-2022

Choy is listed at 7 and Madurawe at 8, so that's the order in which they'd get back into the lineup in case of an injury. But also of note is who's not on the NCAA roster: Ana Geller. There was no clear evidence of injury earlier this year, just a question of form and playing shape. But this means that if we had a few injuries, rather than play Geller at 6, we'd forfeit that singles line (and #3 doubles as well). 

I found it curious when it was just the six who played at Pac-12s being in the championship celebration photos, which is a departure from usual practice. No Geller or Madurawe in those, but at least Madurawe is still apparently with the team. Geller is still on the team website, but no word on whether she's missing NCAAs with injury or what her status is. 

Mossmer is also not on the roster; I wondered if she'd be practicing, at least, but apparently not. Her continued presence on the roster (and the fall Hawaii trip) is confusing to me. I know there was a health issue a while back (about which I don't know details), but if she can play, one assumes she'd be practicing and playing. If she can't play after all this time, then I would've thought a medical retirement (and keeping her scholarship while being off the books for the team) would've happened.

RE: Women's Tennis: Pac-12 Champs and looking ahead to NCAAs - oldalum - 05-05-2022

Also, Gordon is listed at #3 doubles with Xu!

RE: Women's Tennis: Pac-12 Champs and looking ahead to NCAAs - ColoradoTree - 05-05-2022

It's just jaw-dropping all around, and I'm choosing to place my trust in Lele, as she's earned it so often over the years. 

This makes us significantly more dangerous in doubles. I already felt like we were pretty good bets at 5 and 6 in singles, so I don't know how much this changes things, especially since we have no earthly idea what sort of playing shape Gordon is in right now. She hasn't played a meaningful match in almost a year! (I'm not counting the single Hawaii exhibition match she played this past fall after apparently not playing tournaments in the summer.) But it should change 6 from "very good odds" to "nearly certain," at least. 

How much has her form dipped? How rusty is she? How long has she been practicing under the radar? Why didn't she play the dual match season? (I'm assuming grad school commitments, but who knows.) 

If she's been playing a while and is looking good, maybe we even see her climb over Houghton. Houghton at 5 rather than 4 is a much greater win probability.

RE: Women's Tennis: Pac-12 Champs and looking ahead to NCAAs - oldalum - 05-05-2022

I assume this was not a spur-of-the-moment decision, and Gordon's been practicing and playing against other team members (who I hear are pretty good) for some time to get ready. (But I know nothing)

RE: Women's Tennis: Pac-12 Champs and looking ahead to NCAAs - cardfan77 - 05-05-2022

wow. What a nice surprise. This could be a magical NCAA tournament again.

ColoradoTree - what do you think of single lineup below? How likely will we see it?

Ma
Yepifanova
Blake
Gordon
Xu
Choy

Both Houghton and Geller have not had great success yet so Gordon taking over the #4 spot would be a great boost. In Lele and Frankie we trust!

RE: Women's Tennis: Pac-12 Champs and looking ahead to NCAAs - TheFarm07 - 05-05-2022

Wow, that is potentially great news, depending on what form Gordon is in.

Has anything liked this happen before? How can one not be officially playing and not even on the website's roster and just magically reappear for the postseason? 

I don't want to speculate with the situation for Gordon, but what kind of general scenarios would lead to this kind of development?

RE: Women's Tennis: Pac-12 Champs and looking ahead to NCAAs - BobK - 05-05-2022

I suspect extremely personal reasons. Great She has made it back

RE: Women's Tennis: Pac-12 Champs and looking ahead to NCAAs - Spiny_Norman - 05-05-2022

The team wants to see and hear you out at the Taube Tennis Center this weekend.

[twitter]https://twitter.com/StanfordWTennis/status/1522405499492204545[/twitter]

RE: Women's Tennis: Pac-12 Champs and looking ahead to NCAAs - ColoradoTree - 05-06-2022

(05-05-2022, 12:43 PM)cardfan77 Wrote:  wow. What a nice surprise. This could be a magical NCAA tournament again.

ColoradoTree - what do you think of single lineup below? How likely will we see it?

Ma
Yepifanova
Blake
Gordon
Xu
Choy

Both Houghton and Geller have not had great success yet so Gordon taking over the #4 spot would be a great boost. In Lele and Frankie we trust!

I like it for the reasons you mentioned, but I assume Lele putting Gordon at 5 was well-considered and based on how she currently stacks up. We'll see soon enough!
She was on the roster earlier this season and was on the website for a while and then off again, and now back on again. I had assumed she'd moved on and was focused on grad school in her fifth year, but I have no information on her reasoning whatsoever. Like Bob said, I'm just glad she's back. 

And no, I can't think of a similar situation where someone hasn't played and is back for NCAAs. The closest is when Carol Zhao missed much of the year training with the Canadian Fed Cup team back in 2015-16, but she still played around half of the spring season, so she wasn't completely off the radar. 

The video is interesting. Gordon and Madurawe are there, but no Geller.
Video should be here: https://www.tennis.one/tournament/da9e7b51-a846-47f2-bc01-d2023b3694e0?tab=0

RE: Women's Tennis: Pac-12 Champs and looking ahead to NCAAs - ColoradoTree - 05-06-2022

FWIW, Kansas took the doubles point over UCSB. UCSB is a top-heavy team--its top two singles players are terrific, but after that, there is a dropoff and there should be opportunities (this is part of why I was so frustrated with that upset loss).  

Kansas just went up 2-0 with a win on Court 4, and the rest of the matches look tight. Could go either way.