Has there been an uptick in outbound transfers? - Printable Version
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Has there been an uptick in outbound transfers? - BostonCard - 04-26-2022
Forgetting graduate transfers for a sec, it seems like between Taitz and Delaire on the mens basketball side, and Janna van Gytenbeek on the womens basketball side, and Peat and Jones on the football team, it sure seems like we’ve seen more players transfer before even graduating than in the past (I hope my math is right and I didn’t misclassify anyone). And many of these players were starters (Jones, Delaire) or likely significant contributors next year (the rest), so this isn’t players stuck at the end of the bench. Is this the start of a trend? Is it due to getting rid of the requirement to sit out a year? Is it just a momentary blip, perhaps because of the uncertainty due to COVID (plus an extra playing year)?
BC
RE: Has there been an uptick in outbound transfers? - DC 86 - 04-26-2022
(04-26-2022, 09:04 PM)BostonCard Wrote: Forgetting graduate transfers for a sec, it seems like between Taitz and Delaire on the mens basketball side, and Janna van Gytenbeek on the womens basketball side, and Peat and Jones on the football team, it sure seems like we’ve seen more players transfer before even graduating than in the past (I hope my math is right and I didn’t misclassify anyone). And many of these players were starters (Jones, Delaire) or likely significant contributors next year (the rest), so this isn’t players stuck at the end of the bench. Is this the start of a trend? Is it due to getting rid of the requirement to sit out a year? Is it just a momentary blip, perhaps because of the uncertainty due to COVID (plus an extra playing year)?
BC
There's been an uptick nationally since the transfer rules were liberalized and the portal established, a trend which surely will continue for Stanford and everyone else I assume.
RE: Has there been an uptick in outbound transfers? - SamuelMcF - 04-26-2022
Delaire graduated.
RE: Has there been an uptick in outbound transfers? - Phogge - 04-27-2022
Not many down through the years in my memory. Some QB defections... Grayson Rogers, Babe Laufenberg, Jessie Freitas.
RE: Has there been an uptick in outbound transfers? - msqueri - 04-27-2022
(04-27-2022, 06:08 AM)Phogge Wrote: Not many down through the years in my memory. Some QB defections... Grayson Rogers, Babe Laufenberg, Jessie Freitas.
More recently, Padric Scott, Jordan Najvar, Brett Nottingham, Alex Turner, Darren Daniel, Reilly Gibbons, Bo Peek, and Sione Lund.
I don't recall if David Marrero had his degree when he transferred. Obviously we've had a lot of grad transfers in recent years. I don't know precisely who had degrees or not but outbound transfers under Shaw have included Wayne Lyons, Kelsey Young, Kevin Reihner, Patrick Skov, Barry J. Sanders, Dontonio Jordan, Reilly Gibbons, Casey Tucker, Keller Chryst, Terrence Alexander, Brian Chaffin, Reagan Williams, Gabe Reid, Houston Heimuli, KJ Costello, Devery Hamilton, Michael Williams, Obi Eboh, Trevor Speights, Henry Hattis, Jovan Swann, Donald Stewart, Bo Peek, Dylan Powell, Loa Kaufusi, Ryan Johnson, Stuart Head, Andres Fox, Justus Woods, Austin Jones, Joshua Pakola, Nathaniel Peat. I'm likely forgetting somebody. A lengthy list reflective of the changing landscape in college football. The new norm is probably five or so outbound transfers per year.
RE: Has there been an uptick in outbound transfers? - Phogge - 04-27-2022
Good list. I don't think any of those kids have become stars. Any all-conference guys? Seems unlikely.
RE: Has there been an uptick in outbound transfers? - BostonCard - 04-27-2022
I think you probably want to distinguish grad transfers, especially of marginal contributors, who in years past might have just not been invited back for their fifth year and would have transferred to their post-football life, so to speak, and players transferring before getting their degrees (or grad transfers who were significant enough contributors that they would have been invited back).
To me, the biggest signs of concern were Jones and Peat (an incumbent starter and someone who would have been in contention to start), and Van Gytenbeek, who would have been in contention to start or early off the bench. All three would have likely been major contributors and left without their degree.
For some reason, I thought Delaire came in the fall of 2019 and was about to be a senior.
BC
RE: Has there been an uptick in outbound transfers? - msqueri - 04-27-2022
Costello was all-conference before he transferred. In fact, he's the only Stanford QB to be all-conference in the last six years. That's a massive transfer. But of course the context is very important that Costello had been over-recruited and was also not the same after injury.
Lyons, Tucker, Chryst, Alexander, Reid, Hamilton, Williams, Eboh, Swann, Jones, and Peat were all significant players but none were superstars. Jones was probably the closest having led the Pac-12 in scoring one year and being a top six back in the Pac-12. Jones and Reid are extremely significant, detrimental transfers. I'd put Williams, Swann, Hamilton, and Peat in the next tier as arguable whether those transfers were healthy/desirable. Below that threshold it's really pretty understandable and innocuous in all cases.
I think it's notable that arguably the two most damaging outbound transfers in Stanford's history unless I'm forgetting something were both this off-season - Jones and Reid.
RE: Has there been an uptick in outbound transfers? - bl82 - 04-27-2022
Devery Hamilton definitely flourished after leaving
RE: Has there been an uptick in outbound transfers? - Mick - 04-27-2022
(04-27-2022, 08:51 AM)BostonCard Wrote: I think you probably want to distinguish grad transfers, especially of marginal contributors, who in years past might have just not been invited back for their fifth year and would have transferred to their post-football life, so to speak, and players transferring before getting their degrees (or grad transfers who were significant enough contributors that they would have been invited back).
To me, the biggest signs of concern were Jones and Peat (an incumbent starter and someone who would have been in contention to start), and Van Gytenbeek, who would have been in contention to start or early off the bench. All three would have likely been major contributors and left without their degree.
For some reason, I thought Delaire came in the fall of 2019 and was about to be a senior.
BC
Not football, but MVB HM-All League Jaylen Jasper transferred to Pepperdine.
Jaylen Jasper - Men's Volleyball - Pepperdine University Athletics (pepperdinewaves.com)
RE: Has there been an uptick in outbound transfers? - Goose - 04-27-2022
(04-27-2022, 08:59 AM)msqueri Wrote: I think it's notable that arguably the two most damaging outbound transfers in Stanford's history unless I'm forgetting something were both this off-season - Jones and Reid.I would certainly agree these were very notable transfers. Damaging is TBD. As I understand it Jones was sort of told that he wasn't going to be starting next year and that the team was going a different way running back wise. Whether such a change is a good idea remains to be seen, but IMHO leaving under those conditions is totally understandable. It appears that USC expects to use Jones as a third down back who is primarily a pass receiver.
Reid is a grad and we have talked about his reasons to leave before. While we really wanted him back, I can certainly see why leaving made overwhelming sense to him. IMHO he is a bigger loss than Jones.
RE: Has there been an uptick in outbound transfers? - msqueri - 04-27-2022
(04-27-2022, 10:23 AM)Goose Wrote:(04-27-2022, 08:59 AM)msqueri Wrote: I think it's notable that arguably the two most damaging outbound transfers in Stanford's history unless I'm forgetting something were both this off-season - Jones and Reid.I would certainly agree these were very notable transfers. Damaging is TBD. As I understand it Jones was sort of told that he wasn't going to be starting next year and that the team was going a different way running back wise. Whether such a change is a good idea remains to be seen, but IMHO leaving under those conditions is totally understandable. It appears that USC expects to use Jones as a third down back who is primarily a pass receiver.
Reid is a grad and we have talked about his reasons to leave before. While we really wanted him back, I can certainly see why leaving made overwhelming sense to him. IMHO he is a bigger loss than Jones.
Folks are free to believe what they want but to me that narrative with regard to Jones does not pass the smell test. There is no evidence ever that our coaches thought that EJ Smith or Casey Filkins was on the same level as Austin Jones. The coaches revealed their preferences with playing time every week for two years. Smith and Jones both played (i.e., were healthy) in ten games and in those games Smith was deemed good enough to get 26 carries while Jones was deemed good enough to get 123 carries. There is no credible argument our coaches thought Smith was better than Jones. I guess what you're suggesting boils down to a change in heart/change in direction. The Emmitt Smith dynamic does raise for me the possibility of undue influence/coaches tilting preferences in a new direction after the season, though that would be weird and arguably out of character compared to previous playing time decisions.
For what it's worth, my understanding of what happened is different from yours. What I've heard has more to do with coaches and changes that weren't made after the miserable 2021 season.
In any case, I don't think it's all that TBD that Jones' transfer was damaging. Very hard to imagine Smith, Filkins, Harris (can we get anything from Barrow? will we have to play a walk-on?) being a depth chart that makes it not damaging that Jones left. Jones was, conservatively, one of the 15 best players on the team. You don't have one of those transfer out and have it not hurt, not with a roster like ours.
Reid was one of the 10 best players on the team (top four according to Pro Football Focus). Definitely hurts regardless of whether it made sense to him.
RE: Has there been an uptick in outbound transfers? - DC 86 - 04-27-2022
For completeness on the QB front I'll add Scott Frost and Tim Carey, who both came in with the same class. Frost of course then won a national championship at Nebraska playing in a system suited to his strengths. If a QB doesn't start he's going to look elsewhere these days, it's just the nature of the position.
RE: Has there been an uptick in outbound transfers? - msqueri - 04-27-2022
(04-27-2022, 12:09 PM)DC 86 Wrote: For completeness on the QB front I'll add Scott Frost and Tim Carey, who both came in with the same class. Frost of course then won a national championship at Nebraska playing in a system suited to his strengths. If a QB doesn't start he's going to look elsewhere these days, it's just the nature of the position.
Generally yes, although Ryan Burns was an interesting recent exception for us. Presumably we'll have another test case in a few years with whoever isn't QB1 among Patu, Daniels, and a 2023 recruit.
RE: Has there been an uptick in outbound transfers? - BostonCard - 04-27-2022
Eboh was also a loss. He probably would have started last year, and started 7 games last year at UCLA.
BC
Also, good point on Jones. Absent data that points to a demotion, I don’t think the mere fact that he transferred should be read as evidence that a demotion was imminent. A coach would be nuts to tell his returning starter that the team was going in a different direction. More so when the guys who would come in apent a lot of the last year injured.
Unless Jones asked Shaw for a guarantee that he would be starter next year, and Shaw demurred (along the lines of, “you will have to earn it”, I just don’t see it). Any number of things could have led to his transfer, some of which may be personal, some of which may be team related. I do consider the fact that *both* Jones and Peat left, particularly in a year where the running game floundered and our commitment to the run was questionable at best, does suggest something more systemic.
BC
RE: Has there been an uptick in outbound transfers? - Goose - 04-27-2022
(04-27-2022, 02:11 PM)BostonCard Wrote: Also, good point on Jones. Absent data that points to a demotion, I don’t think the mere fact that he transferred should be read as evidence that a demotion was imminent.
My conjecture was based on the fact that at the end of the season Shaw at least twice stated that they wanted to get E. J. and Filkins more reps, while not mentioning Jones or Peat. That seemed noteworthy to me, as Shaw generally tries to mention just about everybody in a position group even when there is a known pecking order. It tracked the idea that at the very least there was an open competition in the RB room. Further, as Phogge often points out, Jones last year seemed to be very easy to tackle. The extremely poor performance of our offensive line made it hard to judge the performance of the backs, but clearly what we had wasn't working. That makes a change reasonable, particularly since this year our defensive line probably will be sub-standard. Going with younger players to get them ready for 2023 may make more sense than playing guys who will be gone by then. This "wisdom" I got from the Cardboard. Not sure I agree, but it is plausible.
Quote:A coach would be nuts to tell his returning starter that the team was going in a different direction. More so when the guys who would come in spent a lot of the last year injured.
Unless it is the truth and there is no point in them sticking around. I obviously don't know if that is what they were told, but at the very least there were signs that the incumbent was going to lose reps.
Quote:Unless Jones asked Shaw for a guarantee that he would be starter next year, and Shaw demurred (along the lines of, “you will have to earn it”, I just don’t see it). Any number of things could have led to his transfer, some of which may be personal, some of which may be team related. I do consider the fact that *both* Jones and Peat left, particularly in a year where the running game floundered and our commitment to the run was questionable at best, does suggest something more systemic.
BC
We know that Shaw at a minimum said the younger guys were going to get more reps, so I think your hypothetical above, or something even stronger, is probable. We of course only know what the players said about their reasons, which isn't much AFAIK. However, even if one puts playing time aside, your point about the running game floundering and our commitment to the run being questionable is possibly enough reason for any upperclassman to leave. He isn't going to put up big numbers next year unless there is a quantum improvement. Younger guys can hang their hat on things turning around, but when it is now or never, one can't. Add to that any doubt about the confidence the coach has in you and it is a recipe to look elsewhere IMHO. Obviously, for Stanford's football fortunes to improve, we have to run the ball better. Going with new personnel may be necessary for that to happen. This may not be to the advantage of incumbents at any position, including the OL.
RE: Has there been an uptick in outbound transfers? - Phogge - 04-27-2022
Everybody is losing to the transfer virus. However Stanford has lost nobody close to what Oklahoma is enduring losing Williams. I don't think Reid or Jones or anyone else on the list make the team any more likely to lose more games. Scott Frost had an entirely different level of talent to work with in Lincoln. Walsh lost most of the studs recruited by Greene by the time Frost took over and the kids he recruited took a couple of years to mature (under the Sheriff).
Jones, Peat and Reid remaining wouldn't have mattered much to a team with abysmal prospects. Hopefully some kids will benefit long term from them leaving.
RE: Has there been an uptick in outbound transfers? - fullmetal - 04-27-2022
The "official"-friendly scuttlebutt says that Peat and Jones had a lot of NIL incentives to consider with their USC/Mizzou offers...incentives that weren't applicable to Stanford.
RE: Has there been an uptick in outbound transfers? - Goose - 04-27-2022
(04-27-2022, 07:52 PM)fullmetal Wrote: The "official"-friendly scuttlebutt says that Peat and Jones had a lot of NIL incentives to consider with their USC/Mizzou offers...incentives that weren't applicable to Stanford.Really? I just can't imagine what Jones could bring for NIL on a USC team where he is expected to be a third down back. There is so much talent there that is at least perceived to be above his that how can he get noticed? I guess it could just be the general crazy state of the game, but anything you can point me to would be appreciated.
RE: Has there been an uptick in outbound transfers? - SamuelMcF - 04-27-2022
(04-27-2022, 08:00 PM)Goose Wrote:(04-27-2022, 07:52 PM)fullmetal Wrote: The "official"-friendly scuttlebutt says that Peat and Jones had a lot of NIL incentives to consider with their USC/Mizzou offers...incentives that weren't applicable to Stanford.
Really? I just can't imagine what Jones could bring for NIL on a USC team where he is expected to be a third down back. There is so much talent there that is at least perceived to be above his that how can he get noticed? I guess it could just be the general crazy state of the game, but anything you can point me to would be appreciated.
I'm pretty sure this is not true.