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Women's Tennis: 2023 ITA Kickoff Weekend - ColoradoTree - 06-15-2022

Stanford finished #13 in the team rankings, which is useful, because it ensures they'll be a host for next year's ITA kick-off tournament, which gives them a better chance of advancing to ITA Indoor Nationals, which in turn gives them a better resume that should boost their ranking and seeding so they're more likely to host a Super Regional next year rather than having to go to Norman. Getting into the top 8 is so important now, and advancing to ITA Nationals is a key factor in getting there, especially with how relatively light this team schedules. 

The draw for the ITA Kickoff Weekend women's tournament is tomorrow, while the men's draw is today (the Stanford men were the last host at #15, and their region was one of the first to fill up). As a reminder, ITA Kickoff Weekend consists of fifteen four-team regionals to determine the 15 teams that will join the host school at ITA Indoor Nationals. 

It's one of my favorite tournament formats, because while the hosts are established due to being the top 15 teams in the year-end rankings, the rest of the teams decide where they go, in descending ranking order. So, the #16 team chooses where it wants to be the regional #2 seed, and then the #17 team picks its destination, and so on. Sometimes four-team regions will fill up before anyone goes near the top few seeds, as teams calculate and recalculate their best chances of advancing to Indoor Nationals depending on how the draft board falls. Teams can pass and opt out of the tournament, and this happens more often toward the end of the draw, as teams decide between, say, being the #4 seed and playing the defending national champion or just skipping it altogether and scheduling matches that weekend where they have a better chance of winning. For teams where success is measured by just making the NCAA tournament at the end of the season, they have a different calculus than national championship contenders. Travel costs matter for some of these schools, too, so a coach of a California school ranked in the 40s or 50s may reluctantly choose to come to Stanford or Cal or Pepperdine rather than fly across the country where their odds might be a bit higher. 

I believe the University of Washington will host next year's women's indoor nationals (they're the highest-ranked team not listed in tomorrow's draft order and they've hosted in the past, including the men's event this past season), but I can't readily find public confirmation of that. 

The ideal Kickoff Weekend situation, in my view, is to host good-but-not-great teams so that you still have an excellent chance of advancing, but where the wins are actually worth something. A few years back, teams stayed far away from Stanford, so we ended up with rematches of regular-season tilts against St. Mary's and Washington State, which didn't move the needle in terms of rankings. Out of our control, obviously, but that's what I'll be looking for with the draft tomorrow (which starts at 9am Pacific). 

It'll be interesting to see which hosts the market deems vulnerable. While as the #13 team, we could expect to fill up sooner than other regionals, I think other teams will look at how little we lose and how freshman-heavy we were this year, and they might be leery of coming here.
For example, #15 Ohio State isn't just the lowest-ranked host, but they also lose its #2, #4, and #6 singles players, so teams will be eager to be the 2 seed there. #14 Auburn doesn't lose anyone in its top 4, but loses 5 and 6. #12 Georgia loses its 4 and 5. #11 Cal loses #4 Julia Rosenqvist, but that's it. #10 Oklahoma State loses its 1 and 3 lines, so expect Stillwater to be a place that fills up early. #9 Miami loses its 1, so maybe there, too. Anyway, you get the point. 

Stanford returning 6 of their top 7, then, and adding a couple of blue chips, stands out in a positive way. (Texas and OU also return basically everyone, so folks won't be eager to go to Austin or Norman, that's for sure. And #3 UNC returns everyone but Cameron Morra, I believe.)

RE: Women's Tennis: 2023 ITA Kickoff Weekend - ColoradoTree - 06-16-2022

Seventeen teams have chosen their spots so far, and Stanford remains one of four schools where teams are staying away, suggesting folks anticipate we're going to be even better next year.

RE: Women's Tennis: 2023 ITA Kickoff Weekend - ColoradoTree - 06-16-2022

And then the next two teams on the board come our way. First, #33 Florida State looked at the board and saw four #2 seeds still available (at #3 UNC, #4 Duke, #8 Pepperdine, and #13 Stanford), so presumably to avoid a repeat matchup with conference teams, they looked out west and figured they might have a better shot against us than against Pepperdine. Then, #34 Arkansas must have decided they liked their chances against FSU in the first round and potentially to beat us in the second round, so they came as the 3 seed. That makes sense, because now Arkansas is at least guaranteed a good, non-conference match out of this. No difference in being a 2 or a 3 seed, so would you rather play FSU and either get a good win or a not-so-damaging loss, or do you go as a 2 seed somewhere else and then your first-round opponent might not be as valuable, because you don't know when someone will choose to play you? 

Five regions are now filled, and two were pretty early: #14 Auburn was first, with #17 ASU, #21 UCF, and #22 UCSB coming on board. (That's gonna be a banger of a region.) Then #15 Ohio State filled up with #23 Wake Forest, #24 Tennessee, and #27 Old Dominion. Then, #10 Oklahoma State filled up with #18 Michigan, #29 Kansas, and #38 Oregon. I like that for both ASU and Oregon--you're in a winnable region but with very competitive matches, and Oklahoma State is one of the more vulnerable 1 seeds, so Oregon has a shot. Cal and Miami's regions have also filled up. 

Interestingly, we've seen our first pass, as #51 Ole Miss looked at the board and presumably didn't see a situation that was worth it for them.
Pepperdine just got its #2 seed, #52 Memphis, and the Waves were the last team to get a 2 seed. Remaining to be selected are the 3 and 4 at Pepperdine, and a bunch of 4 seeds. Ten spots yet to be filled. The remaining teams yet to pick are all going to be either NCAA bubble teams next spring or on the outside looking in, so now teams are picking assuming they'll lose the first match but where they might have a shot at a decent win against the other losing team in that region.
FYI, I like the situations for USC and UCLA, too--the Bruins are the 2 seed at Miami, which as mentioned above loses its #1 singles player. They get a good-but-winnable match against #35 Iowa State and a vulnerable 1 seed. Same thing for USC, the 2 seed at #12 UGA.

Stanford's regional is now full, as #56 Kansas State takes the 4 seed there. So, Stanford will take on the Wildcats and, if they win, the Arkansas-FSU winner.
There were a couple more passes, allowing #69 Washington State to sneak into the last available spot in the field, the #4 seed at UVA. So, Pac-12 teams in the field are as follows:

#11 Cal (host); #32 Georgia Tech; #36 San Diego; #42 Princeton
#13 Stanford (host); #33 Florida State; #34 Arkansas; #56 Kansas State
#17 ASU is the 2nd seed at #14 Auburn; #21 UCF and #22 UCSB fill out that regional
#19 UCLA is the 2nd seed at #9 Miami; #35 Iowa State and #43 FIU fill out that regional
#20 USC is the 2nd seed at #12 Georgia; #48 Notre Dame and #60 Stetson fill out that regional
#38 Oregon is the 4th seed at #10 Oklahoma State; #18 Michigan and #29 Kansas fill out that regional
#47 Arizona is the 3rd seed at #7 Texas A&M; #16 Florida and #66 Florida Atlantic fill out that regional
#49 Utah is the 2nd seed at #3 UNC; #50 UNC Charlotte and #64 Maryland fill out that regional
#69 Washington State is the 4th seed at #5 UVA; #28 South Carolina and #41 Northwestern fill out that regional

Sakibomb25 - Sakibomb25 - 06-17-2022

Thanks for the detailed explanation of how the tournament works! I never knew that and love the strategy for all teams.

RE: Women's Tennis: 2023 ITA Kickoff Weekend - ColoradoTree - 06-25-2022

FYI, some major shakeups in college tennis rosters:

* Texas loses its top two players, sophomores Peyton Stearns and Kylie Collins, to the pro ranks and to LSU, respectively (UT's assistant coach is the new head coach at LSU). Texas also loses the freshmen Zamarripa sisters, who are turning pro.
* UNC's Cameron Morra is spending her last year of eligibility as a grad transfer at Duke!
* UCLA's Abbey Forbes is transferring to UNC
* USC's Danielle Willson will be a grad transfer at Ohio State
* ASU is welcoming U of Minnesota's #1 singles player, though the Gophers aren't exactly a power
* Utah welcomes Katya Townsend as a grad transfer from Texas A&M, where she played high in the lineup
And UVA's Emma Navarro, too. So that's the top two players in the country, Navarro and Stearns, both leaving early.

RE: Women's Tennis: 2023 ITA Kickoff Weekend - BobK - 07-25-2022

New signees

https://gostanford.com/news/2022/7/25/womens-tennis-cardinal-adds-two.aspx

RE: Women's Tennis: 2023 ITA Kickoff Weekend - ColoradoTree - 07-25-2022

Always nice to have them signed, sealed, and delivered, that's for sure. Here's what I wrote about Blokhina and Sun back in May:

* In terms of what's coming in the door, we have the #2 class in the nation (behind USC, unfortunately). Alexis Blokhina is currently the #6 recruit in the country (has peaked as high as #4 in the class), and Emma Sun has charged up the rankings year by year, and she's now the #11 recruit (having peaked at 10).
* First, Blokhina. She's a hard-hitting lefty even though she's not super tall. She's compact but powerful, a little reminiscent of Caroline Lampl when Lampl was at her best. She's currently the 32nd-ranked junior in the world, having peaked a few weeks ago at 25th. That's nearly 20 spots higher than her previous career high, and the reason why is she just won the Easter Bowl, one of the preeminent junior tennis tournaments in the country. She did it in exciting fashion, too, knocking off UNC-bound Reese Brantmeier, who is arguably the top recruit in the country this year, in a third-set tiebreaker. She's 1-1 in her career against our own Alexandra Yepifanova, beating Sasha 6-2, 6-4 in March of 2021. She lost in three sets to Valencia Xu last August, around the same time she was partnering with Xu at the U.S. Open girls' tournament. She has some three-set wins against some top NCAA competitors, including a win over UGA's Mell Reasco, who mostly played #2 for Georgia this year but took over the #1 spot as a freshman down the stretch for the Bulldogs, though that win is aging a bit, coming in February 2020. In the $25K Sarasota tournament last week, she knocked off Adriana Reami in three sets (Reami just finished up a terrific career at NC State a year ago, where she finished as the program's all-time leader in singles wins, playing in the top half of the lineup her whole career (mostly at #3 singles). She has a few three-set losses against elite NCAA players like South Carolina's Sara Hamner and Iowa's Alexa Noel. When she was 13, she became the youngest-ever Florida 18U state champion. She's got an interesting tennis profile, as she lacks a lot of history against other American blue chip recruits, but unlike Ma, it's because she has been playing a ton of international competition, focusing on European ITF junior tournaments. Seems like she's intent on a pro career, so she may be a risk to move on early, but perhaps she reconsiders when she doesn't vault over Ma and Yepifanova in our lineup. 
* Looking at Emma Sun, she has something of a Ma-like profile in that she focused on high school tennis to the exclusion of a lot of tournament play. Unlike Blokhina (who is very active on Instagram), Sun's instagram profile gives little hint she's an elite tennis player. Just six posts, three of which are related to high-level piano competitions, and just one related to tennis--her Stanford commitment post. Looking at this old LA Times article, she seems like she's close to the platonic ideal of a Stanford student-athlete, where school and music often come first:  https://www.latimes.com/sports/highschoo...nd-a-stage . I wouldn't expect her to come in and play near the top of the lineup by any means, but she strikes me as a player who has a lot of untapped potential and someone who could climb in the lineup as she devotes more of her life to tennis. But my current expectations from her are slightly higher than I had for Choy coming in.

If we think about where they slot in, here's what I'd do in singles:

1. Connie Ma (So.)
2. Alexandra Yepifanova (So.)
3. Angelica Blake (Sr.)
4. Valencia Xu (So.)
5. Alexis Blokhina (Fr.)
6. Ana Geller (Jr.)

Bench: India Houghton (Jr.), Emma Sun (Fr.) 

There's a lot more uncertainty in the back half of the lineup than there normally is. If Geller comes back healthy and in form, she could not only play #4 but dominate at that line. But we didn't see her healthy or in form last year. The ordering of Xu and Blokhina in the lineup is also very much in up the air, but I'd give the edge to Xu there. So much will depend on how they look this fall, tournament play from now until early January, and who has taken a jump in development. Sun is a wild card, too--so much less competition against elite players than we usually see, so once she's on campus, we could see her development take off like a rocket. 

RE: Women's Tennis: 2023 ITA Kickoff Weekend - BobK - 07-25-2022

Awesome post. Going to be a great season.

RE: Women's Tennis: 2023 ITA Kickoff Weekend - ColoradoTree - 08-02-2022

The 2022-23 roster is now up on the official website, and Sara Choy is still on it! Looks like she's taking advantage of that extra covid year. So, here's the roster math:

5th year (1): Choy
Seniors (2): Blake, Mossmer
Juniors (2): Geller, Houghton
Sophomores (3): Ma, Yepifanova, Xu
Freshmen (2): Blokhina, Sun

If Mossmer is medically retired and only on the roster as a courtesy, and Choy's extra covid year isn't on the tennis team's dime, then the math works out. Otherwise, someone is paying their own way. 

The depth on this team will be otherworldly. Three of Blokhina, Geller, Houghton, Choy, and Sun won't even crack the singles lineup!

RE: Women's Tennis: 2023 ITA Kickoff Weekend - TheFarm07 - 08-02-2022

(08-02-2022, 09:45 AM)ColoradoTree Wrote:  The 2022-23 roster is now up on the official website, and Sara Choy is still on it! Looks like she's taking advantage of that extra covid year. So, here's the roster math:

5th year (1): Choy
Seniors (2): Blake, Mossmer
Juniors (2): Geller, Houghton
Sophomores (3): Ma, Yepifanova, Xu
Freshmen (2): Blokhina, Sun

If Mossmer is medically retired and only on the roster as a courtesy, and Choy's extra covid year isn't on the tennis team's dime, then the math works out. Otherwise, someone is paying their own way. 

The depth on this team will be otherworldly. Three of Blokhina, Geller, Houghton, Choy, and Sun won't even crack the singles lineup!

A lot can happen in the next few months, but what would you be your guess right now on the singles lineup if the season started tomorrow?

RE: Women's Tennis: 2023 ITA Kickoff Weekend - BostonCard - 08-02-2022

Unless he’s changed his opinion, his guess for a roster is a few posts up in the thread.

Quote:1. Connie Ma (So.)
2. Alexandra Yepifanova (So.)
3. Angelica Blake (Sr.)
4. Valencia Xu (So.)
5. Alexis Blokhina (Fr.)
6. Ana Geller (Jr.)


I don’t think Choy cracks that top six.

BC

RE: Women's Tennis: 2023 ITA Kickoff Weekend - ColoradoTree - 08-09-2022

(08-02-2022, 05:53 PM)BostonCard Wrote:  Unless he’s changed his opinion, his guess for a roster is a few posts up in the thread.

Quote:1. Connie Ma (So.)
2. Alexandra Yepifanova (So.)
3. Angelica Blake (Sr.)
4. Valencia Xu (So.)
5. Alexis Blokhina (Fr.)
6. Ana Geller (Jr.)


I don’t think Choy cracks that top six.

BC

Pretty much, though that assumes Xu, Blokhina, and Geller are healthy and in form. (We know Blokhina is, because she never seems to stop playing.) And even then, the order of those bottom three are up for debate. But yeah, they all slot ahead of Choy for me. If I had to set the NCAA roster order right now (which would be a terrible idea given how little I know about what most of these players have been up to this summer and what kind of form they're in), it'd be Ma, Yepifanova, Blake, Xu, Blokhina, Geller, Choy, Houghton, and Sun. Houghton playing over Choy all last spring seemed odd to me, since Houghton's play didn't seem to warrant it. But it'll take an injury or two for Choy to get a steady crack at the #6 spot this year. 

Blokhina is the #3 seed in the USTA Girls' 18s National Championships this week, and it's a massive 256-player draw, so she has a long road ahead of her, but she's in the third round (Round of 64) this afternoon. Emma Sun is also in the draw, but she lost 6-0, 6-2 in the second round to 9-16 seed Maya Joint, who is a rising HS junior and a top 5 recruit in her class. 

It's possible some of our players will be taking part in the ITA National Summer Championships starting on Thursday, but draws aren't out so I can't be sure.

Sakibomb25 - Sakibomb25 - 08-09-2022

Are we recruiting Joint?

RE: Women's Tennis: 2023 ITA Kickoff Weekend - oldalum - 08-09-2022

Blokhina won the singles gold medal at the Maccabiah Games in Israel, in the championship match defeating, in two sets, Vivian Ovrootsky who as a freshman played #6 singles last year for national champion Texas. Seems like a decent win for her. She also paired with Ovrootsky to win the doubles title.

RE: Sakibomb25 - ColoradoTree - 08-10-2022

(08-09-2022, 04:37 PM)Sakibomb25 Wrote:  Are we recruiting Joint?

No idea. I generally assume Lele has made at least some contact with every blue chip (or their coaches) to assess their interest and whether they've done the work academically to put them in the mix. But as the winner of half of the NCAA championships in this sport, it does seem like top players tend to try and seek us out to get on Lele's radar. 

The blue chips in the Class of 2023 have mostly made their verbal commitments, with none picking Stanford so far, but there are a handful of blue chips yet to commit, with the most interesting being Eleana Yu from Ohio, who has been the #1 recruit for a few years (but who is currently ranked #11 due to a light schedule), and Priya Nelson from Sacramento (currently #7, as high as #5). 

The tremendous recruiting over the last couple of years starts to be a problem, as the likelihood of playing high in our lineup from the beginning dips. 

I mean, think about the 2023-24 depth chart if you're a top rising HS senior:

1. Ma (Jr.)
2. Yepifanova (Jr.)
3. Xu (Jr.)
4. Blokhina (So.)
5. Geller (Sr.)
6. Houghton (Sr.)
7. Sun (So.)

That's a tough lineup to crack. Of course, it's always a tough lineup to crack, and we still manage to bring in great talent every year, but we sometimes see a slight dip in recruiting--by our standards--after two consecutive highly ranked classes. We had the #1 class in 2009 (M. Burdette, Tan) and then the #2 class in 2010 (Gibbs, Ahn), and then #7 and #5 the following years. We had the #1 class in 2013 (Davidson, Doyle, Zhao), and then not a single recruit in 2014 before being #1 again in 2015 (Lord, Lampl, Yee) and #2 in 2016 (Higuchi, Arbuthnott), and then #4, #9, #9, and #7, before being #1 with a bullet last year (Ma, Yepifanova, Xu) and #2 this year (Blokhina, Sun). 

So, don't be shocked if we don't get a whole lot out of the Class of 2023. The recruiting dips happen. But what differentiates the good years from the great is how short those dips are. We won a title in 2013 behind that 2010 class and Tan from the 2009 class. We won in 2016 with that 2013 class leading the charge and the 2015 class as freshmen, and we rode that 2015 class to four straight appearances in the national championship match, with three titles. But since they left, we have unquestionably fallen off. I have a good feeling that this year sees a return to form and a deep run at NCAAs.

RE: Women's Tennis: 2023 ITA Kickoff Weekend - BobK - 08-30-2022

The Frosh

https://gostanford.com/news/2022/7/25/womens-tennis-cardinal-adds-two.aspx

RE: Women's Tennis: 2023 ITA Kickoff Weekend - ColoradoTree - 09-06-2022

FYI, the ITA preseason rankings just dropped, https://www.wearecollegetennis.com/2022/09/06/di-womens-rankings-sep-6/ and here's where Stanford ranks:

Singles:

7. Connie Ma (So.)
14. Alexandra Yepifanova (So.)
83. Valencia Xu (So.)
105. Angelica Blake (Sr.)

Doubles:

12. Ma/Blake

Newcomers:

5. Alexis Blokhina (Fr.) (behind only UNC's Brantmeier among American freshmen)

Look out for Duke this year, folks. They have three of the top 10 (#5 Chloe Beck, #6 Cameron Morra as a grad transfer from UNC (still can't believe that one), and #8 Georgia Drummy), plus #57 Brianna Shvets (a grad transfer from Princeton), #70 Iullia Bryzgalova (a grad transfer from Penn), and #100 Emma Jackson, a sophomore who primarily played #3 for the Blue Devils last year. If they're not the #1 team coming in, it'll be North Carolina, who has players ranked 12th, 15th, 21st, 28th, and 31st, plus Brantmeier as the #2 newcomer. Boy howdy, those are some rosters.

RE: Women's Tennis: 2023 ITA Kickoff Weekend - ColoradoTree - 09-07-2022

Oh, and Pepperdine is dangerous again, too. They've got the #11, #32, #36, #44, #49, and #84 players, plus two ranked doubles teams. 

FWIW, looking around the Pac-12, you'd have to peg Stanford as the favorite if the rankings were your only input, though USC (who also has #6 newcomer Maddy Sieg) and Cal should be right there, with ASU nipping at their heels. UCLA, as always, will have plenty of talent, but it's really jarring to see just one ranked Bruin in the preseason. 

1. Cayetano (USC)
7. Ma
14. Yepifanova
25. Giavara (Cal)
46. Morlet (ASU)
50. Alsola (Cal)
65. Han (USC)
69. Turkovic (ASU)
83. Xu
85. Cheong (USC)
92. Fortin (UW)
97. Wiersholm (Cal)
98. Hance (UCLA)
105. Blake
107. Luescher (Oregon)
T111. Hanford (ASU)

RE: Women's Tennis: 2023 ITA Kickoff Weekend - Spiny_Norman - 09-07-2022

CT, you have not even mentioned yet the 2 time defending national champ Texas. I see them at 33, 47, 59, 74 and 99. Last year's runner up Oklahoma shows up at 4, 22 and 93. And 2 and 28 in doubles.

Edited to add that Texas also has #4 and #8 ranked newcomers and Oklahoma has the #3 ranked newcomer.

RE: Women's Tennis: 2023 ITA Kickoff Weekend - ColoradoTree - 09-07-2022

(09-07-2022, 08:45 AM)Spiny_Norman Wrote:  CT, you have not even mentioned yet the 2 time defending national champ Texas. I see them at 33, 47, 59, 74 and 99. Last year's runner up Oklahoma shows up at 4, 22 and 93. And 2 and 28 in doubles.

Edited to add that Texas also has #4 and #8 ranked newcomers and Oklahoma has the #3 ranked newcomer.

You're absolutely right. Texas loses their top 2 (no longer having Stearns and Collins is a body blow), but they're very, very deep. They import Pachkaleva from Pepperdine, Marlee Zein from Florida as a grad transfer, and they get two well-regarded international freshmen, one from Germany and one from Israel. A lot of #3 type players on that roster, so while you might get wins on the top two courts, it's going to be very hard to get wins on the back courts. 

I'm less worried about Oklahoma because of their relative lack of depth compared to these other teams. They get Sleeth back, lose Chanta, and that's still just three ranked singles, plus a ranked newcomer. I think we might have beaten them last year at a neutral site and especially at our house, but that's the Super Regional format for you. I like our chances against them this year if we see them. 

But yeah. Lots of good teams out there. I think we're one of them, though, especially with another year under the belts of Ma, Yepifanova, and Xu. (And I think Angelica Blake is almost criminally under-ranked at #105--she's going to put up great numbers for us on the #3 line.) But I'd put Duke and Carolina above us for now, I'd have us roughly level with Texas (that's a 4-3 match either way), and I like us just slightly better than Oklahoma.