Picking a good Power Five turnaround artist

Picking a good Power Five turnaround artist - Printable Version

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Picking a good Power Five turnaround artist - msqueri - 10-11-2022

Yesterday was a federal holiday and a gorgeous day in DC so my choice for self-care was to spend quality time on my patio researching Power Five football coaching hires. What follows are a series of posts drawing on that research. I hope that this becomes relevant for Stanford football soon and, in the meantime, spurs discussion. At least for me it's more pleasant to think about attractive futures than to beat all the dead horses in the Stanford football stable.

I did a previous analysis of the pedigrees of the most successful Power Five coaches of the last three years to see if it supported my long-held belief that the best way to hire a good head coach is to hire somebody who is already a good proven head coach. That analysis suggested that the primary path to a good coach, at least recently and especially for Power Five programs below the football factory level, is to get a proven Group of Five (specifically Group of Five rather than FCS) coach. A few of the names I proposed should be on Muir's watch list continue to reinforce their case, like Jamey Chadwell, Kalani Sitake, and Jeff Traylor. Among other Group of Five guys, Curt Cignetti continues to do really special things that are getting more and more attention now that James Madison has moved up to FBS, Gus Malzahn is making a case to make it back to Power Five, Brent Brennan is making a name for himself, and of course there's Luke Fickell. IMHO all of these guys should at least be on a long list for any opening. Brennan's local and Pac-12 ties makes him an especially obvious one to be on our list.

I wanted to expand/complicate the earlier analysis and look specifically at the pedigrees of coaches who have done what we're hoping will happen post-Shaw: take a very mediocre or worse program and get them to 8+ win seasons. To do this, I thought I'd look at Power Five coaches this century who fit this bill. The next several posts identify those successful turnover artists, lump them into general categories, and provide details on their pedigrees as well as age when they took the job. The coaches are listed in reverse chronological order of their date of hire to approximate relevance to modern college football. In total, there are 52 hires (several coaches mentioned twice because their turnaround artist skills proved replicable....I'm sure you can guess at least one of those!) in the data set: 22 proven Power Five+ head coaches (+ to account for a couple who did NFL before college), 15 coordinators (8 offense, 7 defense), 13 proven lower level head coaches (11 of which came from Group of Five, one of which had a Group of Five-equivalent job long prior but was coming from a Power Five assistant job, and only one of whom did not come from major college football at all....I KNOW you can guess this guy, same guy as before); and 2 position coaches (again an easy one for us to guess!). Across the whole data set, the median age of a Power Five turnaround artist at time of hire is 48.

Much more to dig into below, let's get to it.....

The largest category by what seems like a significant amount are proven Power Five coaches (and certainly the overall category of proven head coaches is the overwhelming route for successful hires). Here is that first category:

Proven Power Five+ Coaches

Lane Kiffin (Ole Miss): Spectacularly successful Florida Atlantic head coach but more known for being the head coach of the Oakland Raiders, USC, and Tennessee; has also been offensive coordinator at Alabama and USC [Miscellaneous: Ole Miss was in a mire of sanctions and mediocrity but he now has them as an apparent powerhouse] - 45

Chip Kelly (UCLA): Former San Francisco 49ers, Philadelphia Eagles, and Oregon head coach; previously Oregon and New Hampshire offensive coordinator [Miscellaneous: I'm grudgingly making a slight assumption UCLA ends up with an 8+ win season this year, which would be two in a row and qualify for my definition of a turnaround] - 54

Bronco Mendenhall (Virginia): Very successful BYU head coach; previous defensive coordinator at BYU, New Mexico, and Oregon State, along with defensive position coaching jobs [Miscellaneous: currently available] - 50

Jim Harbaugh (Michigan): Spectacularly successful tenures at San Francisco 49ers, Stanford, and University of San Diego; previously NFL QB coach and player [Miscellaneous: as with Kelly it's debatable whether I should even include Harbaugh for this gig as, despite immediately prior mediocrity Michigan is hardly a mediocre program. I did not include Brady Hoke despite two good years because the case for Michigan's mediocrity was even more tenuous pre-Hoke and Hoke's trajectory was bad.] - 51

Todd Graham (Arizona State): Moved laterally from Pitt after a mediocre season; previously spectacularly successful head coach of Tulsa and also head coach of Rice; earlier he had defensive coordinator and position coaching jobs at Tulsa and West Virginia [Miscellaneous: the coaches in this list had trajectories of all sorts and Graham's is one where turnaround came immediately and tremendously and then he sputtered, so clearly not a good/sustainable trajectory, but 28 wins in three years and top two in the Pac-12 South four times in six years is a turnaround artist despite his eventual failings] - 47

Mike Leach (Washington State): Came back from a two year timeout for bad behavior after his spectacular tenure at Texas Tech; prior to Texas Tech was offensive coordinator and quarterbacks coach at Oklahoma and Kentucky [Miscellaneous: One of many offensive minds on these lists who cut his teeth as an offensive line coach] - 51

Jim L. Mora (UCLA): Technically not a Power Five head coach but an NFL head coach from the Atlanta Falcons and Seattle Seahawks; previously San Francisco 49ers defensive coordinator [Miscellaneous: ditto as with Graham in terms of excellent early results that tapered off] - 50

Brian Kelly (Notre Dame): Spectacularly successful tenures at Cincinnati (I realize Cincinnati isn't Power Five now, but Big East was fairly major back then), Central Michigan, and Grand Valley State [Miscellaneous: His predecessors, Tyrone Willingham and Charlie Weis, were edge cases for this exercise. They arguably inherited mediocre programs and both had good seasons but Notre Dame is Notre Dame and their trajectories were bad so I don't think they're what we're talking about here. Arguably Kelly isn't either because it's Notre Dame, but he fits the criteria better.] - 48

Bill Snyder (Kansas State, the second time around): GOAT Hall of Fame coach coming off of a 3+ year retirement for an excellent second act; long ago he was Iowa's offensive coordinator and quarterbacks coach [Miscellaneous: hey, maybe Shaw can leave for a while and then clean up after his replacement's failure; Snyder left too healthy of a program for me to count Chris Klieman as a turnaround artist, but he's clearly been an excellent coach and if I included him he would have been in the proven lower level coach category] - 69

David Cutcliffe (Duke): Successful tenure at Ole Miss and fired after his only losing season for refusing to fire assistants; most recently Tennessee offensive coordinator [Miscellaneous: long-time Tennessee assistant alongside and then under Phil Fulmer] - 53

RE: Picking a good Power Five turnaround artist - msqueri - 10-11-2022

Houston Nutt (Ole Miss): Extremely successful Arkansas head coach; previously Boise State and Murray State head coach; previously Arkansas wide receivers coach and Oklahoma State quarterbacks and wide receivers coach [Miscellaneous: I'm including out of methodological rigor but he achieved this success by cheating his ass off; Hugh Freeze gets lumped in the same bucket, talk about a lack of institutional control] - 50

Nick Saban (Alabama): Miami Dolphins head coach; previously spectacularly successful LSU, Michigan State, and Toledo head coach; long ago was the Cleveland Browns and Michigan State defensive coordinator [Miscellaneous: Weird to count Alabama but it's appropriate since they had one winning season in the prior four years and were under sanctions] - 55

Mark Dantonio (Michigan State): Moderately successful shepherding Cincinnati's move up to the Big East; previously Ohio State's defensive coordinator, Power Five defensive backs coach, and Youngstown State defensive coordinator [Miscellaneous: Apprenticed under Jim Tressel and Nick Saban] - 51

Tom O'Brien (NC State): Successful tenure as Boston College head coach; Virginia offensive coordinator; offensive line coaching background [Miscellaneous: On this list twice] - 58

Butch Davis (North Carolina): Successful tenure at Miami and then a failed tenure as an NFL head coach for the Browns; NFL defensive coordinator prior to head coaching jobs [Miscellaneous: wins during most successful seasons at North Carolina were subsequently vacated] - 55

Steve Spurrier (South Carolina): Legendary coach coming off failed stint with Washington Redskins; previously spectacularly successful Florida, Duke, and Tampa Bay Buccaneers head coach; previously Duke offensive coordinator and quarterbacks coach [Many of the blast from the past types in this post succeeded on fame for a few years and then fizzled but Spurrier was legitimately great at South Carolina] - 60

Rich Brooks (Kentucky): Venerable coach coming back from a few years away and six years since he'd been the St. Louis Rams coach; previously Oregon's head coach for an extremely long time with very successful close to his tenure there; previously an NFL defensive and special teams coach and Oregon State's defensive coordinator [Miscellaneous: I'm squeamish about it, but this is an example of a grey beard taking multiple years away and coming back ready to lead again] - 62

Pete Carroll (USC): Technically not a Power Five coach but a head coach from the New England Patriots; previously the New York Jets defensive coordinator and had also been a defensive coordinator at Pacific and NC State [Miscellaneous: it may seem strange to count USC as a mediocre program that needed a turnaround artist but they only had one 7 win season in the half decade prior to Carroll] - 49

Nick Saban (LSU): Michigan State head coach; previously Toledo head coach; long ago was the Cleveland Browns and Michigan State defensive coordinator [Miscellaneous: The GOAT appears again. There's a reason he is the GOAT. LSU is a proud program, but they had won seven games in two years prior to Saban] - 48

Dennis Erickson (Oregon State): Legendary coach bouncing back from a stint with the Seattle Seahawks; previously head coach (much spectacularly successful) at Miami, Washington State, Wyoming, and Idaho [Miscellaneous: Mike Riley had an awesome stint at Oregon State the second time around but Erickson bequeathed too good of a program for Riley to make this list] - 52

Lou Holtz (South Carolina): Legendary coach returning after a couple years away, previously coached Notre Dame, Minnesota, Arkansas, NC State, William & Mary, and the New York Jets; in ancient times he had once been an assistant but that was so long ago Wikipedia doesn't say what positions [Miscellaneous: This is like Graham and Mora where the celebrity was enough for a super charge for a time but it fizzled] - 62

Glen Mason (Minnesota): Modestly successful by normal standards but spectacularly successful by Kansas standards getting the Jayhawks to two top 25 finishes; head coach at Kent State before that; former Ohio State offensive coordinator [Miscellaneous: Thanks to one early career year at Allegheny, he had experience as a coordinator on both sides of the ball] - 47

The median age of this group is 51.

Eight of 22 of these happened since 2010. It's a decades-old, somewhat tried and true approach to hiring a good coach.

Illustrative names that would fit this bill (not exhaustive, not in any particular order, inclusion does not equal endorsement, and obviously many wouldn't consider us, just observing match with one or more of the types above): Mendenhall, Graham, Mora, Cutcliffe, Dantonio, Tom Herman, Jeff Brohm, Lance Leipold, Chris Klieman, Kalani Sitake, Sonny Dykes, Bret Bielema, PJ Fleck, Pat Fitzgerald, Chris Petersen, Gary Patterson, Jeff Tedford, Matt Rhule, Bill O'Brien, Doug Marrone, Urban Meyer, Dan Quinn, Dave Clawson, Dino Babers, Brady Hoke, Dana Holgorsen, Gus Malzahn, Willie Taggart, Jonathan Smith, Bryan Harsin

Something you don't see a lot of in this category are guys who failed as Power head coaches coming back for redemption and succeeding. Usually the tell of somebody being a successful coach is having been a successful coach, at the very least adjusted for circumstance (like Dantonio and Mason, which is where I think the Sonny Dykes comparison comes in). For that reason I would be hostile to a candidate like Taggart. I'd feel even more strongly about not hiring Derek Mason. You do see failed NFL coaches being a reasonable path to super charging a college program at least for a time, which is why I included Rhule, O'Brien, Marrone, and Quinn.

The real sustainable path here is to just hire a good coach. The guys I'd be interested in are Mendenhall, Herman, Brohm, Leipold, Kleiman, Sitake, Fleck, Petersen, and Clawson.

RE: Picking a good Power Five turnaround artist - msqueri - 10-11-2022

The next largest category belongs to coordinators, though as you'll see that's become less well-trod of a route over time. Here is that second category:

Coordinators

Mark Stoops (Kentucky): Florida State defensive coordinator and defensive backs coach; previously had the same positions at Arizona and Houston; also coached defensive backs at Miami [Miscellaneous: Apprenticed under Hayden Fry and, as you'll see below, being a defensive coordinator named Stoops is one of the best credentials in the sport] - 46

James Franklin (Vanderbilt): Maryland offensive coordinator and quarterbacks coach; previously had the same positions at Kansas State; before that was an NFL and college position coach [Miscellaneous: Pennsylvania roots] - 39

Charlie Strong (Louisville): Florida defensive coordinator; long-time SEC defensive coordinator with Florida and South Carolina [Miscellaneous: Varied position coaching background earlier in his career but primarily defensive line] - 50

Steve Sarkisian (Washington): USC offensive coordinator and quarterbacks coach; previously Oakland Raiders quarterbacks coach [Miscellaneous: This is arguably the edgiest case in the post but after how disastrously Gilbertson and Willingham left the Huskies, four straight winning seasons including several good bowls just could not be left off the list; that level of winning is why I can't truly credit Chris Petersen as a turnaround artist, though clearly he's a great/better coach and if I were to include Petersen he would have been in the proven lower level coach category thanks to his time at Boise State] - 35

Dan Mullen (Mississippi State): Florida offensive coordinator and quarterbacks coach; previously followed Urban Meyer around as a quarterbacks coach [Miscellaneous: Urban Meyer may be a distasteful person but he's one of the greatest coaches ever and Mullen learned a lot] - 37

Doug Marrone (Syracuse): New Orleans Saints offensive coordinator and offensive line coach; offensive line coaching background in college and NFL [Miscellaneous: Syracuse alum] - 45

Bo Pelini (Nebraska): LSU defensive coordinator; previously defensive coordinator at Oklahoma and Nebraska and before that an NFL position coach with the Green Bay Packers, New England Patriots, and San Francisco 49ers [Miscellaneous: Debatable whether Callahan's tenure was enough to make Nebraska a mediocre program but given the combination of what preceded/succeeded Pelini I think he belongs on this list] - 40

Mike Stoops (Arizona): Oklahoma co-defensive coordinator and defensive backs coach; previously held the same positions at Kansas State [Miscellaneous: Apprenticed under Hayden Fry, Bill Snyder, and Bob Stoops; judgment call on whether to call Mike Stoops or Rich Rodriguez or neither the turnaround artist at Arizona and the answer really may be neither but Stoops getting to three good bowls after inheriting crap somewhat impresses me] - 42

Jeff Tedford (Cal): Oregon offensive coordinator and quarterbacks coach; previously held the same positions with Fresno State [Miscellaneous: local-ish ties as former Fresno State player and coach] - 40

Mark Mangino (Kansas): Oklahoma defensive coordinator; previously Oklahoma and Kansas State offensive line coach [Miscellaneous: Apprenticed under Jim Tressel, Bill Snyder, and Bob Stoops; Lance Leipold hasn't had enough success yet at Kansas to fit my methodology for this list but he feels like a guy who belongs as an exemplar of a hire gone right.....if I had included him he'd be in the proven lower level coach category] - 46

Greg Schiano (Rutgers, the first time around): Miami defensive coordinator; previously Chicago Bears and Penn State defensive backs coach [Miscellaneous: New Jersey high school and Rutgers grad assistant ties] - 35

Ralph Friedgen (Maryland): Georgia Tech offensive coordinator; very long-time offensive coordinator (San Diego Chargers, another previous stint with Georgia Tech, Maryland, Murray State, William & Mary, Citadel) [Miscellaneous: Maryland alum] - 54

Les Miles (Oklahoma State): Technically was a position coach (Dallas Cowboys tight end coach for three years) but had been Oklahoma State's offensive coordinator and offensive coordinator for three years before that and that seems salient; previously Michigan and Colorado offensive line coach [Miscellaneous: Mike Gundy is an incredible coach but Miles bequeathed too good of a program for Gundy to make this list] - 47

Bob Stoops (Oklahoma): Florida defensive coordinator; previously Kansas State co-defensive coordinator and defensive backs coach [Miscellaneous: It now feels weird to include Oklahoma on a list like this but they were most definitely mediocre when Stoops came on board] - 38

Tom O'Brien (Boston College): Virginia offensive coordinator; offensive line coaching background; no previous head coach experience [Miscellaneous: Played/coached at academically-minded institutions] - 48

The median age of this group is 42.

Only 3 of 10 happened since 2010. This was a very hot way of doing things in the 2000s but it's passe. Good turnaround artists aren't hired this way anymore. When they were, offensive coordinators with a grounding in QB or OL instruction and defensive coordinators with a grounding in DB instruction were the ways to go.

Names that would fit this bill (same caveats as above): Lance Taylor, Josh Gattis, Jeff Grimes, Jeff Lebby, Graham Harrell, Jesse Minter, Jim Knowles, Jim Leonhard two weeks ago, Tommy Rees, Alex Grinch, Morgan Scalley, Todd Monken, Warren Ruggiero, Sherrone Moore, Casey Dunn, Alex Golesh, LeVar Woods

When this has worked it's tended to be guys coming from big-time programs and often with experience learning at the feet of a master. I don't want to pick from this category and don't think Stanford would have to but the above names wouldn't be crazy to look into. The one exception I'd take a very close look at is Lance Taylor - he's a former successful Stanford assistant under Shaw, a reasonably successful recruiter at Stanford, one of the hottest coordinators in the sport, a person of color, and has apprenticed for an insanely impressive assortment of masters in Nick Saban, Jerry Moore (Hall of Fame FCS coach for those who don't know), Rex Ryan, Ron Rivera (ok that's somewhat less impressive), David Shaw, and Brian Kelly. Taylor is an obvious candidate to look very, very closely at.

RE: Picking a good Power Five turnaround artist - msqueri - 10-11-2022

The third largest but hottest category belongs to lower level coaches. Here is that category:

Lower Level Coaches

PJ Fleck (Minnesota): Spectacularly successful tenure at Western Michigan; previously Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Rutgers, and Northern Illinois wide receivers coach [Miscellaneous: Judgment call on how to handle the Brewster/Kill/Claeys/Fleck chronology but to me Fleck is the hire they succeeded on and thus the one worth inclusion on this list] - 36

Tom Herman (Texas): Spectacularly successful short tenure at Houston; previously offensive coordinator and quarterbacks coach at Ohio State, Iowa State, Rice, and Texas State [Miscellaneous: Perhaps a controversial inclusion but in my opinion Herman did turn around Texas and got fired for not doing it spectacularly enough. Unless there are demons I don't know about, I think a Power Five team is going to be lucky to get him] - 42

Jeff Brohm (Purdue): Spectacularly successful tenure at Western Kentucky; previously Western Kentucky, UAB, and Louisville offensive coordinator and quarterback coach [Miscellaneous: he's only had one really good season at Purdue but this year looks like it could be a second consecutive one so he's a name to watch and belongs in this category] - 46

Matt Campbell (Iowa State): Very successful tenure at Toledo; previously Toledo offensive coordinator and offensive line coach and before that Bowling Green run game coordinator and offensive line coach [Miscellaneous: One of the more pure turnover artist arcs and a very recent one for folks looking for a modern archetype] - 36

Dave Clawson (Wake Forest): Successful tenures at Fordham, Richmond, Bowling Green; offensive coordinator for Tennessee as a transition between levels before taking Bowling Green job [Miscellaneous: Good example of rising from various lower levels] - 47

Butch Jones (Tennessee): Extremely successful tenures at Cincinnati and Central Michigan; previously coached various positions at Central Michigan and West Virginia [Miscellaneous: He had some low level coordinator gigs and one major one he lost after a year but mostly seems to be a guy who rose based on position coaching/leadership] - 45

Art Briles (Baylor): Very successful tenure at Houston; previously Texas Tech running backs coach and before that a high school head coach in Texas [Miscellaneous: whoa, eerie Troy Taylor parallels] - 52

Jim Harbaugh (Stanford): Spectacularly successful tenure at University of San Diego; previously Oakland Raiders quarterbacks coach [Miscellaneous: His lack of staying power at Stanford makes him a somewhat edge case but he qualifies as my criterion is multiple 8+ win seasons and obviously his trajectory was spectacular] - 43

Jim Grobe (Wake Forest): Mediocre tenure at Ohio was very impressive given their previous track record; previously a Group of Five level linebacker coach [Miscellaneous: Like Cutcliffe at Duke, Grobe's Wake Forest tenure was not terribly successful but I'm including because of an excellent three year stretch in the middle of his 13 year tenure that we'd kill for at this point] - 49

Gary Pinkel (Missouri): Extremely successful tenure at Toledo; previously Washington offensive coordinator and wide receivers coach; before that wide receivers coach at Washington and Bowling Green [Miscellaneous: Apprenticed under Don James and followed college teammate Saban at Toledo] - 49

Houston Nutt (Arkansas): Mediocre year as the Boise State head coach but only a year removed from spectacular Murray State tenure; previously Arkansas wide receivers coach and Oklahoma State quarterbacks and wide receivers coach [Miscellaneous: Arkansas one of two home bases as he played both there and Oklahoma State and those are the two schools from which he launched his coaching career; Sam Pittman is an Arkansas coach who could be on this list in a few years but there's not enough information to know yet whether he'll turn them around] - 40

Joe Tiller (Purdue): Spectacularly successful (at least his last year) tenure at Wyoming (plus six games as a CFL interim coach over two decades prior); previously Washington State (two tenures) and Wyoming offensive coordinator and offensive line coach and Purdue defensive coordinator and defensive line coach [Miscellaneous: Notable to have been both an offensive coordinator and defensive coordinator at the Power Five level] - 54

Walt Harris (Pitt): Former Pacific head coach (did not have winning record); most recently Ohio State QB coach and prior to that New York Jets QB coach; also had extensive offensive coordinator experience at Tennessee [Miscellaneous: Extremely varied and non-linear career coaching defense and offense, head coach/coordinator/position coach at different points) - 50

The median age of this group is 46.

Six of 13 happened since 2010. This is the au courant way to hire a good coach.

Names that would fit this bill (same caveats as above): Brent Brennan, Jamey Chadwell, Luke Fickell, Mike Bloomgren, Troy Taylor, Mike Sanford, Curt Cignetti, Jeff Traylor, Tyson Helton, Jeff Monken, Shawn Clark, Charles Huff, Blake Anderson, Troy Calhoun, Thomas Hammock, Sean Lewis, Jay Norvell, Matt Entz, Deion Sanders, Jay Hill, Brent Vigen, Bobby Hauck, Steve Ryan, Drew Cronic, Chris Oliver, Nate Milne

Somebody doing a coaching search at Stanford would be committing malpractice not to have Brent Brennan and Troy Taylor on the short list. Too obvious. I also think that if we're being realistic our old friend Bloomgren would surely get a close look, though Brennan and Taylor (and Lance Taylor if we want to keep it in the Shaw family) are more attractive to me. I am absolutely head over heels in love with the James Madison football program but Cignetti is on the older side.

RE: Picking a good Power Five turnaround artist - msqueri - 10-11-2022

The last category:

Position Coaches

Pat Fitzgerald (Northwestern): Northwestern linebackers coach and recruiting coordinator; previously Northwestern defensive backs coach; no other experience [Miscellaneous: Northwestern alum (legend actually)] - 31

Tyrone Willingham (Stanford): Minnesota Vikings running backs coach; previously coached position groups on offense, defense, and special teams at Stanford, Rice, NC State, Michigan State, and Central Michigan [Miscellaneous: as a Willingham hater this pains me, and I'm sure it will pain Walsh lovers, but Walsh II was so awful that this is a straightforward turnaround artist case thanks to the eventual heights of the Rose and Seattle bowl years] - 41

This group is too small to have a meaningful median but of course they were both young.

This hasn't happened since 2006. Not a proven way to get a successful turnaround artist in the modern era in my view.

A few alibis as I close out my initial contribution to this thread.

* TCU is a noticeable omission from this list. The reason is that Dennis Franchione didn't stay long enough to be considered a true turnaround artist yet bequeathed a good enough program that Gary Patterson can't be considered one either, and now Sonny Dykes hasn't been there long enough to count. I consider all three good coaches. I think if I did this list a few years from now Dykes would be on the list. He belongs in the proven Power Five coach category and given his various stops and the degrees of difficulty is one of the most underrated coaches in the country.

* Speaking of Sonny Dykes, his dad left too stable of a program for Mike Leach for me to count Leach's Texas Tech tenure on this list, but it's somewhat debatable since Leach definitely took mediocre to very good. If Leach were on the list for that tenure he'd be on the coordinator list as he was Oklahoma and Kentucky's offensive coordinator and quarterbacks coach.

* Urban Meyer's spectacular two years at Utah is the definition of a turnaround but he isn't included because Utah wasn't Power Five at the time. If he were included he would be in the proven lower level coach category due to his time at Bowling Green.

TL;DR:

My picks for the next Stanford football coach are somebody among Bronco Mendenhall, Tom Herman, Jeff Brohm, Lance Leipold, Chris Kleiman, Kalani Sitake, PJ Fleck, Chris Petersen, Dave Clawson, Lance Taylor, Brent Brennan, and Troy Taylor. And David Shaw must go.

RE: Picking a good Power Five turnaround artist - BobK - 10-11-2022

Troy Taylor abd stop there

RE: Picking a good Power Five turnaround artist - msqueri - 10-11-2022

(10-11-2022, 09:19 AM)BobK Wrote: Troy Taylor abd stop there

Love Troy Taylor and he is definitely on my short list. Gives me some pause that Jim Harbaugh is the only non-FBS or NFL coach to engineer a Power Five turnaround this century. Harbaugh is a great coach and may be sui generis. Part of this may be sample size/selection bias, but it does jump out to me that the best practices for teams in our situation are to hire either proven big-time coaches or proven Group of Five coaches. The jump from Sacramento State to Stanford may be too big. Not to say Taylor isn't on my short list, he very much is. And maybe it says something about Stanford that Stanford's past turnarounds (Willingham, Harbaugh) have been unorthodox choices.

RE: Picking a good Power Five turnaround artist - martyup - 10-11-2022

Bravo! You should get paid for that analysis . . . by Muir.

(10-11-2022, 09:30 AM)martyup Wrote: Bravo! You should get paid for that analysis . . . by Muir.

And, I would love to read your analysis on potential replacements for Muir. Sorry if I'm being too greedy here.

RE: Picking a good Power Five turnaround artist - BobK - 10-11-2022

Jack Curtice did great at Utah faikure at Stanford
Dowhower promoted from within failure
Wiggin from the pros great assistant faikure
Elway super successful at SJS failure

Walsh 2 one great year then not
Harris ugh

Of course successful with same backgrounds
Taylor
Ralston
Walsh
Green at the end
Willingham
Harbaugh all different route
Shaw

RE: Picking a good Power Five turnaround artist - OutsiderFan - 10-11-2022

Did I miss Matt Rhule - who is now available - on that list?

He made Temple relevant and turned Baylor around faster than anyone thought possible. Rhule is a defensive coach, which Stanford really, really needs.

RE: Picking a good Power Five turnaround artist - msqueri - 10-11-2022

(10-11-2022, 09:53 AM)OutsiderFan Wrote: Did I miss Matt Rhule - who is now available - on that list?

He made Temple relevant and turned Baylor around faster than anyone thought possible. Rhule is a defensive coach, which Stanford really, really needs.

Rhule was on my list of illustrative names. He didn't make my final list because I didn't include any NFL guys but if I did he might be the one I'd pick. There'd be a jolt of energy and recruiting and he might be great. I'd have sustainability/staying power concerns. But a good name to highlight/consider IMHO.

RE: Picking a good Power Five turnaround artist - Mick - 10-11-2022

Great work, msqueri. Four thoughts:

1) Whoever it is needs to "get" Stanford.
2) Recruiting hurdles are enormous, yet surmountable.
3) University itself needs to decide how "all-in" it wants to be re: the new college football game, including conference selection and participation, NIL, transfer portal.
4) Choice of coordinators will be crucial. Need NFL level skills, who can work with smart, smart players.

RE: Picking a good Power Five turnaround artist - msqueri - 10-11-2022

(10-11-2022, 10:11 AM)Mick Wrote: Great work, msqueri. Four thoughts:

1) Whoever it is needs to "get" Stanford.
2) Recruiting hurdles are enormous, yet surmountable.
3) University itself needs to decide how "all-in" it wants to be re: the new college football game, including conference selection and participation, NIL, transfer portal.
4) Choice of coordinators will be crucial. Need NFL level skills, who can work with smart, smart players.

Thank you! My quick reactions:

1) To a point but definitely not the top criterion. Harbaugh would probably score relatively low on this scale and that worked out great. At the same time he showed sensitivity to the issue with both his coaching staff and administrative/football office hires. I don't want a Walt Harris who comes into Stanford telling the locker room his top expectation is nobody brings a gun into the facilities but I also don't want a Stanford Man, or at least I don't think a Stanford Man should have a leg up in the hiring.

2) We have advantages and disadvantages in recruiting. It's a much longer post to really dive into this. I am confident that the right coach could maintain top 25 recruiting at Stanford.

3) Yes, the million dollar question. I don't think you need to be all-in on the transfer portal and/or NIL to be competitive in major college football, so there could be a nuanced answer to this. It's not all or nothing. But we do need to decide something.

4) This is the big advantage of hiring a proven good coach. They have their own team and you know the alchemy of the team works.

RE: Picking a good Power Five turnaround artist - rogpodge - 10-11-2022

I posted this on the other board.

https://jmusports.com/sports/football/roster/coaches/mike-shanahan/3324

https://jmusports.com/sports/football/roster/coaches/bryant-haines/3326

James Madison is the newest member of the doing more with less group. They made the leap from the FCS and are already pulling off upsets and outperforming their talent (and covering ATS). Both coordinators have NFL-ish experience.

https://kuathletics.com/sports/football/roster/season/2022-23/coach/andy-kotelnicki/

Kansas' offense has exploded under Lance Leipold. Granted Leipold may go elsewhere after this remarkable turnaround (Vegas o/u for wins was 2.5), one of his assistants might be tempted?

https://usajaguars.com/sports/football/roster/coaches/kane-wommack/1411

If you want to really take a flyer, might I interest you in Kane Wommack?

https://twitter.com/rodger/status/1577369194215129100

RE: Picking a good Power Five turnaround artist - msqueri - 10-11-2022

(10-11-2022, 11:33 AM)rogpodge Wrote: I posted this on the other board.

https://jmusports.com/sports/football/roster/coaches/mike-shanahan/3324

https://jmusports.com/sports/football/roster/coaches/bryant-haines/3326

James Madison is the newest member of the doing more with less group. They made the leap from the FCS and are already pulling off upsets and outperforming their talent (and covering ATS). Both coordinators have NFL-ish experience.

https://kuathletics.com/sports/football/roster/season/2022-23/coach/andy-kotelnicki/

Kansas' offense has exploded under Lance Leipold. Granted Leipold may go elsewhere after this remarkable turnaround (Vegas o/u for wins was 2.5), one of his assistants might be tempted?

https://usajaguars.com/sports/football/roster/coaches/kane-wommack/1411

If you want to really take a flyer, might I interest you in Kane Wommack?

https://twitter.com/rodger/status/1577369194215129100

If you're talking about those people as coordinator hires, sure you can interest me in at least considering. As head coach? No way. By the way, the tweet you share at the end argues against hiring any of those guys as a head coach. As the tweet rightly suggests, the best way to hire a good head coach is to hire a good head coach. Not a coordinator.

RE: Picking a good Power Five turnaround artist - PAsportsfan - 10-11-2022

How about a coach from a top 5 program?

Special Teams Coordinator Jay Harbaugh.

RE: Picking a good Power Five turnaround artist - Ohiocard - 10-11-2022

(10-11-2022, 10:11 AM)Mick Wrote: Great work, msqueri. Four thoughts:

1) Whoever it is needs to "get" Stanford.
2) Recruiting hurdles are enormous, yet surmountable.
3) University itself needs to decide how "all-in" it wants to be re: the new college football game, including conference selection and participation, NIL, transfer portal.
4) Choice of coordinators will be crucial. Need NFL level skills, who can work with smart, smart players.

1) I would say they don't need to "get" Stanford, but they do need to understand what a national/high academic recruiting plan would look like.
2) Agree and as that will continue to be our only source for talent, it needs to be a priority.
3) This is truly the only question that matters. Can you attract a high quality coach if we are one of the few non "Football First" schools? How aggressive will we be without a clear idea of future $
4) Coordinators are always key, but I wouldn't say the schemes have to be NFL based. Clawson & Chadwell have turned programs around with schemes that are built for college not the NFL.

Dave Clawson is the list for me. The only question is can we lure him from a stable well built program for a unique (no portal) rebuild job?

RE: Picking a good Power Five turnaround artist - msqueri - 10-11-2022

(10-11-2022, 12:38 PM)PAsportsfan Wrote: How about a coach from a top 5 program?

Special Teams Coordinator Jay Harbaugh.

Other names on top five programs: Bill O'Brien, Todd Monken, Will Muschamp, Kevin Wilson, Tony Alford, Brian Hartline, Jesse Minter, Sherrone Moore

Getting a few years ahead of the curve, our old non-coach assistant from early Harbaugh days, Coleman Hutzler, is now Saban's special teams coordinator and outside linebackers coach. Having apprenticed under Harbaugh, Urban Meyer, Lane Kiffin, and now Saban, he's a guy to have an eye on. Getting ahead of ourselves to consider for Power Five head coach though.

RE: Picking a good Power Five turnaround artist - Ohiocard - 10-11-2022

(10-11-2022, 01:03 PM)msqueri Wrote:
(10-11-2022, 12:38 PM)PAsportsfan Wrote: How about a coach from a top 5 program?

Special Teams Coordinator Jay Harbaugh.

Other names on top five programs: Bill O'Brien, Todd Monken, Will Muschamp, Kevin Wilson, Tony Alford, Brian Hartline, Jesse Minter, Sherrone Moore

Getting a few years ahead of the curve, our old non-coach assistant from early Harbaugh days, Coleman Hutzler, is now Saban's special teams coordinator and outside linebackers coach. Having apprenticed under Harbaugh, Urban Meyer, Lane Kiffin, and now Saban, he's a guy to have an eye on. Getting ahead of ourselves to consider for Power Five head coach though.

1) Are there some examples of coaches in the past decade, that flamed out elsewhere becoming success at a 2nd HC opportunity?

2) Rank these attributes:

- History of developing players to outperform talent ratings
- National/high academic recruiting track record
- Established ties on the West Coast
- Productive & innovative schemes
- Ability to re-brand a program

RE: Picking a good Power Five turnaround artist - gailtate - 10-11-2022

(10-11-2022, 01:18 PM)Ohiocard Wrote:
(10-11-2022, 01:03 PM)msqueri Wrote:
(10-11-2022, 12:38 PM)PAsportsfan Wrote: How about a coach from a top 5 program?

Special Teams Coordinator Jay Harbaugh.

Other names on top five programs: Bill O'Brien, Todd Monken, Will Muschamp, Kevin Wilson, Tony Alford, Brian Hartline, Jesse Minter, Sherrone Moore

Getting a few years ahead of the curve, our old non-coach assistant from early Harbaugh days, Coleman Hutzler, is now Saban's special teams coordinator and outside linebackers coach. Having apprenticed under Harbaugh, Urban Meyer, Lane Kiffin, and now Saban, he's a guy to have an eye on. Getting ahead of ourselves to consider for Power Five head coach though.

1) Are there some examples of coaches in the past decade, that flamed out elsewhere becoming success at a 2nd HC opportunity?

2) Rank these attributes:

- History of developing players to outperform talent ratings
- National/high academic recruiting track record
- Established ties on the West Coast
- Productive & innovative schemes
- Ability to re-brand a program

Talent on hand "brands" your program in the early going, fortified with the supplemental talent you're capable of attracting. Denny Green ran "power" primarily because of what Jack Elway left him (Vardell); Walsh I was endowed with the talent to run a spectacular pro-set along with
"long handoffs", Wiggin inherited a generational QB; Harbaugh ran power mainly because of his inheritance (Gerhart, et. al.)