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Line vs. BYU - Printable Version

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Line vs. BYU - Austroturf - 11-21-2022

The Cougars are favored by 6.5 points in the upcoming game.  BYU is already bowl eligible at 6-5.  O/U is at 58, which would imply a score of about 32-26.  What?  The odds-makers (or gamblers) really believe we can put up 26 points?

RE: Line vs. BYU - SamuelMcF - 11-21-2022

(11-21-2022, 04:37 PM)Austroturf Wrote:  The Cougars are favored by 6.5 points in the upcoming game.  BYU is already bowl eligible at 6-5.  O/U is at 58, which would imply a score of about 32-26.  What?  The odds-makers (or gamblers) really believe we can put up 26 points?

Cal is ranked #61 in Defensive FEI and we did score 20 on them.

BYU is #106 in Defensive FEI, the worst on our entire schedule (even including our own). They gave up 26 points to FCS Utah Tech at home last week, though of course they scored a hell of a lot more and won handily.

Scoring 20 against the #61 defense can explain why odds-makers think we can put up 26 points on a significantly worse one. Very obvious they don't watch the games though.

RE: Line vs. BYU - BostonCard - 11-21-2022

ASU's Defensive FEI is ranked 115, and we scored 15 points.  Since mid-October, the 20 points scored (three on a last second meaningless field goal) are our high water mark.  We've scored 16, 15, 13, 14, 7, and now 20 in our last 6.  I agree, the oddsmakers aren't watching the games.

BC

RE: Line vs. BYU - murky - 11-21-2022

(11-21-2022, 07:52 PM)BostonCard Wrote:  ASU's Defensive FEI is ranked 115, and we scored 15 points.  Since mid-October, the 20 points scored (three on a last second meaningless field goal) are our high water mark.  We've scored 16, 15, 13, 14, 7, and now 20 in our last 6.  I agree, the oddsmakers aren't watching the games.

BC

So maybe Karty can bang out another 4/4 field goals and win that trophy or whatever they give to kickers.

RE: Line vs. BYU - SamuelMcF - 11-22-2022

I'm not gonna bet on the game, but the key question here is: assuming we put up something in the 13-21 point range, will BYU put up 37-45+ to hit the over of 58?

RE: Line vs. BYU - BostonCard - 11-22-2022

(11-22-2022, 10:58 AM)SamuelMcF Wrote:  I'm not gonna bet on the game, but the key question here is: assuming we put up something in the 13-21 point range, will BYU put up 37-45+ to hit the over of 58?

Probably.  To me, it is the line that seems off; giving 6.5 points against this Stanford team, seems a bit stingy.  I don't bet either, but I could see a final that is something like 39-19, which gets you the over and takes into account Stanford's futility.

BC

RE: Line vs. BYU - StanfordMatt - 11-23-2022

BYU is firing their defensive coordinator next Monday. That job would make a lot of sense for Lance. Maybe Kalani and Lance can work out of a deal on the sideline Saturday.

RE: Line vs. BYU - lex24 - 11-23-2022

(11-23-2022, 11:26 AM)StanfordMatt Wrote:  BYU is firing their defensive coordinator next Monday. That job would make a lot of sense for Lance. Maybe Kalani and Lance can work out of a deal on the sideline Saturday.

Lance, IMO, did a good job with the defense this year. Couple train wrecks. But all in all, the defense was better than expected. And not the reason for the abysmal season.

I suppose BYU has something to play for go 7-5 might impact what bowl they go to. Stanford of course has nothing to play for on a game being played after the BG and after Thanksgiving.

Even in a normal situation I’d take BYU and lay the points. Given the situation, I think there’s a good chance that Stanford packs it in. It’s been a rough year to say the least. If they fall behind early it could get very very ugly.

RE: Line vs. BYU - gailtate - 11-23-2022

(11-23-2022, 01:12 PM)lex24 Wrote:  
(11-23-2022, 11:26 AM)StanfordMatt Wrote:  BYU is firing their defensive coordinator next Monday. That job would make a lot of sense for Lance. Maybe Kalani and Lance can work out of a deal on the sideline Saturday.

Lance, IMO, did a good job with the defense this year. Couple train wrecks.  But all in all, the defense was better than expected.  And not the reason for the abysmal season.

I suppose BYU has something to play for go 7-5 might impact what bowl they go to. Stanford of course has nothing to play for on a game being played after the BG and after Thanksgiving.

Even  in a normal situation I’d  take BYU and lay the points. Given the situation, I think there’s a good chance that Stanford packs it in. It’s been a rough year to say the least. If  they fall behind early it could get very very ugly.

Esp. if their coach has lost them.

RE: Line vs. BYU - Austroturf - 11-23-2022

(11-22-2022, 10:46 PM)BostonCard Wrote:  
(11-22-2022, 10:58 AM)SamuelMcF Wrote:  I'm not gonna bet on the game, but the key question here is: assuming we put up something in the 13-21 point range, will BYU put up 37-45+ to hit the over of 58?

Probably.  To me, it is the line that seems off; giving 6.5 points against this Stanford team, seems a bit stingy.  I don't bet either, but I could see a final that is something like 39-19, which gets you the over and takes into account Stanford's futility.

BC

I think you've just picked the winning prediction.  Stanford's total of 19 translates to one TD and 4 Karty FGs.  The BYU total of 39 could be off by one point: 5 TDs and a FG.  So how about 38-19?  Might also be 38-16.  We might breach 20 with a 2 TD and 3 FG output (23 total points).  However you calculate it, we lose.  By quarter:

Q1: BYU 14 Stanford 7
Half: BYU 17 Stanford 10
Q3: BYU 31 Stanford 16
End: BYU 38 Stanford 19 (or 23) 

If 19 is the final total, it's because Shaw lets Karty kick a 65-yarder with under one minute to play.  Karty is a beast.

RE: Line vs. BYU - SamuelMcF - 11-27-2022

(11-21-2022, 04:37 PM)Austroturf Wrote:  The Cougars are favored by 6.5 points in the upcoming game.  BYU is already bowl eligible at 6-5.  O/U is at 58, which would imply a score of about 32-26.  What?  The odds-makers (or gamblers) really believe we can put up 26 points?

The oddsmakers did very well. We put up exactly 26 points. 35-26 is damn close to the implied score.

RE: Line vs. BYU - Austroturf - 11-27-2022

(11-27-2022, 02:30 PM)SamuelMcF Wrote:  
(11-21-2022, 04:37 PM)Austroturf Wrote:  The Cougars are favored by 6.5 points in the upcoming game.  BYU is already bowl eligible at 6-5.  O/U is at 58, which would imply a score of about 32-26.  What?  The odds-makers (or gamblers) really believe we can put up 26 points?

The oddsmakers did very well. We put up exactly 26 points. 35-26 is damn close to the implied score.

Indeed.  My pick was 35-16.  I didn't see us breaking 20 after our underwhelming offensive performance of past weeks.  Of course, I don't bet.