WBB: Stanford 50 -- USC 47 - Printable Version

WBB: Stanford 50 -- USC 47 - Printable Version

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WBB: Stanford 50 -- USC 47 - 81alum - 02-14-2023

Preview:

After USC shocked us in LA by stifling our offense, there is little chance our team will take them lightly. It is very possible that we will play them a third time in the Pac 12 tournament, too, so there is even more reason to solve the puzzle.

Here is our last thread on USC, from the ignominious Jan 15 game:

https://thecardboard.org/board/showthread.php?tid=23964&pid=379109&highlight=WBB%3A+USC+55+Stanford+46#pid379109

And here is the depressing box score:

https://gostanford.com/sports/womens-basketball/stats/2022-23/usc/boxscore/37998

USC certainly had our number, but our loss was not a fluke. It might have seemed that way at the time--when they beat us they were 2-3 in league play. Since then they have gone 6-2, beating Oregon and Oregon State who had both beaten USC earlier. They also are the only team to have beaten Colorado in Boulder. Some of their wins have been nail biters--they beat Washington in Seattle in overtime, and Oregon State at home in overtime. They lost to Arizona at home in double overtime. In all these games the scores were in the 50s at the end of regulation--USC is winning primarily on the strength of superb defense and just "good enough" offense. Its one blemish was @ Utah, which beat them 83-73 in regulation.

USC has been rewarded for beating us and turning its season around. It has just entered the AP poll at 25, Massey has them at 27, and the NET at 28. Overall they are now 19-6, in league 9-5. They are thus in a three way tie with UCLA and Arizona for the coveted 4th place slot in the Pac 12 tourney. Charlie Creme has them as a 9 seed.

Now here is a bit of ominous news to Stanford fans who have not been following USC. When we last played them in LA, their leading scorer--6'2" forward grad transfer Kadi Sissoku--was out with injury. Sissoku came back the next weekend for USC and has been on a tear ever since, scoring 18 in their win @ Colorado, for example. USC doesn't usually have to score that many points to win, and so Sissoku has been instrumental in their recent success.

At the chalk talk following our USC loss, fans understandably asked about it. Usually such answers are very circumspect and don't reveal too much, and this one didn't either. But the size and length of USC was noted--that they matched up well defensively on us. If so, then we ought to look at playing them as good practice for the NCAAs. We have often been able to use our own size and length to beat teams that cannot match up physically with us. With USC we have a team that can match up physically, so we need to beat them the old fashioned way--by playing better! How much have we learned since January 15? We will find out.

USC's last game was a very ugly 60-56 overtime win over Oregon State. The teams were tied 55-55 at the end of regulation and no team had scored more than 16 points in a quarter. Then, in overtime, USC held Oregon State to 1 point, and staggered to victory.

Raegen Beers did score 18 points and nab 16 rebounds coming in off the bench, so strong post play can be successful against USC. I am sure Tara has studied what OSU did to free up Beers against the USC defense. But other than Bendu Yeaney getting a few breakaways--no one else from OSU got out of single digits. USC may simply have to be beaten in a low scoring game.

While none of USC's players seem like All-American superstars, they have multiple players who can score, making it difficult to ignore anyone they put on the court. Destiny Littleton has been getting better and better offensively. Against OSU she led with 18 points despite going 0-6 from three point range. She got 7 free throws, so clearly she was taking it to the rim against the OSU defense and manufacturing points.

Sissoku and Okako Adika have joined Littleton at nearly 40 minutes a game. Neither one was very efficient shooting in that last defensive slugfest, but contribute mightily on defense, and both routinely get close to double digits in points.

In addition to that core of 3 that play full time, USC rotates 4 other players in the other two slots. Rayah Marshall is their star post, at 6'4", and she gets spelled by 6'6" Clarice Akunwafo who had some success guarding Brink the last time out. And the fifth slot is held by 5'7" guard Kayla Williams, who seems to share with Rokia Doumbia.

To remember last time, USC was able to keep a quick, athletic guard on Jump full time, and Jump went 0-5. Meanwhile, Marshall and Akunwafo bothered Brink to the point she was 3-14, and Adika seems to be the right kind of player to guard Jones, who was 3-13. In short, they match up 1:1 pretty well against all our main scorers. They also got 7 steals from us while keeping their own turnovers down. We had an apalling 8:14 assist to turnover ratio. It was just hard to ever pass the ball, and when a team's strength is inside rather than outside, that became our fatal flaw.

On defense we have to do better defending the three point line than we did last time out. USC is not a prolific three point shooting team, but they went 8-19 against us. Taylor Bigby has not been getting many minutes lately, but she came in and scored 3/6 from three against us, and while Littleton was 0/6 in their last game, she and Adika both hit a couple of threes against us last time. In other words, if they are reasonably defended they are not terrific three point shooters, but if we pack the paint and leave them open, they will heat up enough to make us pay.

On offense, I think our newish high-low offense will be required. Betts played 3 minutes in our last game, and she and good post-to-post passes might be the way to break open the USC defense. Clearly OSU figured out a way to get Beers going.

Tara commented after the loss that we failed in three aspects of the game--offense and defense of course, but also rebounding. We gave them 14 O-boards. Can't do that in a low scoring defensive game and expect to win.

It is a tall order, but our team should be pleased to be coming home, playing in front of a friendly crowd, confident with its recent adjustments and success, and angry at our last loss. I'm looking forward to a better result.

RE: WBB: Stanford vs. USC Friday 8pm - Griffins78 - 02-14-2023

Wow! What an outstanding write up! Unbelievably good with lots of insights. Thank you 81!

RE: WBB: Stanford vs. USC Friday 8pm - BobK - 02-14-2023

Ok 81 ya got us worried. :). That said awesome write up

RE: WBB: Stanford vs. USC Friday 8pm - stopandpop - 02-14-2023

As we did so well in the AZ game, I hope we're more selective in our 3-point shooting and not rely on it as we did in our first game with 'SC. Continuing with our trend with the Arizona schools, our primary attack should be an inside/out game (and more of the Brink-Betts high-low) along with decent screens to open things up for Haley and her mid-range jumpers. When we score inside, things will open up for Jump. The one thing we should not do- is stand around, looking for shots as the clock winds down. Better passing and movement is critical.

In LA, we basically had 1 day to prepare for the Trojans after that UCLA game. This time we have the better part of a week. I have confidence that Tara and her staff will put together a much better defensive and offensive game plan against them, leading to a much better result.

RE: WBB: Stanford vs. USC Friday 8pm - triangle2 - 02-14-2023

Potential positives for the upcoming game: USC has not really seen Nivar and her athleticism could really help push the tempo and avoid pressure. And they didn't get to see Betts either. I think the rotation is much better now, but I do worry about how much USC played the passing lanes and disrupted the flow. We're initiating the offense from different spots to minimize the quick turnover, and the screening action from the elbow seems to be back. I'm hoping to see a couple of new sets that haven't been scouted.

RE: WBB: Stanford vs. USC Friday 8pm - 81alum - 02-14-2023

We didn't get to see Kadi Sissoko in the last game: she wears #30.

She played 4 years for Minnesota before grad transferring to USC, so this is the last year we will see her. Last year at Minnesota, she started 27 games and averaged 11 points and 6 rebounds.

Earlier this year, she was out with a leg injury for half a dozen games before returning soon after USC defeated us.

She grew up in France, and has played in the French national system for some time.--the U23, U20, U18 teams, winning the European championship with the U18 team. She wound up as the ESPN #10 player in 2018 class. She was considered a guard back then despite her height. That put her near Sedona Prince and Destanni Henderson in the great ESPN pecking order.

RE: WBB: Stanford vs. USC Friday 8pm - M T - 02-15-2023

A big aspect of the game that can't be scouted is the refs. Tight or loose? Benefit to the home team or not?

In our loss, not counting the last 3 minutes of the game (when the team behind usually fouls a lot), Stanford was called for 17 fouls to USC's 8 by Ellis, Murray, Gonzalez, giving USC +4 in FTA at that point. (USC hit 8 of 12 FTA in that last 3 minutes).

Oddly, but as best I can tell, not a single offensive foul was called.

Location W/L USC fouls (opponent fouls)   officials
Home W OSU 15(15) Nash, Robinson, M. Murray
Home W Ore 16(15) Bennett, Luna, Barlow
Home L Ariz 16(22) Turner, Trimble, L. Jones
Home W ASU 8(13)   Mitchell, A. Murray, Pantoja
Away W Col 11(14) Lasuik, Bacon, L. Jones
Away L Utah 19(14) Blow, Kresniek, Barlow - USC only 2 fouls in last 3:00 vs 1 for Utah
Away W Wash 10(14) Merritt, Charles Gonzalez, M. Murray
Away W WSU 9(13) Hobbs, Pantoja, Turner
Home W Stan 8(17) Ellis, A. Murray, Chuck Gonzalez    Only counting fouls up to last 3:00.

RE: WBB: Stanford vs. USC Friday 8pm - 81alum - 02-15-2023

(02-15-2023, 03:51 AM)M T Wrote: A big aspect of the game that can't be scouted is the refs. Tight or loose? Benefit to the home team or not?

Good point MT. If both offenses were left free to roam and operate as they would like--meaning a closely called game that restrains both defenses--then I think we win easily. Our offense flourishes with lots of movement and lots of assists.

If the refs "let both sides play" and call very few fouls then I think things become somewhat equalized. That would play into USC's natural strength. We can be strong and physical on defense too, but a sumo-wrestling or WWF style basketball game would neutralize our offensive strengths.

USC knows this so I imagine they will commit lots and lots of fouls, and just dare the refs to call them all. Colorado has done that for years--overload the fouling so much that it tends to normalize itself as the game goes on. Some of those games get to the point where one would think only an overhead body slam would get called.

RE: WBB: Stanford vs. USC Friday 8pm - TheFarm07 - 02-15-2023

(02-14-2023, 05:42 AM)81alum Wrote: To remember last time, USC was able to keep a quick, athletic guard on Jump full time, and Jump went 0-5. Meanwhile, Marshall and Akunwafo bothered Brink to the point she was 3-14, and Adika seems to be the right kind of player to guard Jones, who was 3-13. In short, they match up 1:1 pretty well against all our main scorers. They also got 7 steals from us while keeping their own turnovers down. We had an apalling 8:14 assist to turnover ratio. It was just hard to ever pass the ball, and when a team's strength is inside rather than outside, that became our fatal flaw.

On offense, I think our newish high-low offense will be required. Betts played 3 minutes in our last game, and she and good post-to-post passes might be the way to break open the USC defense. Clearly OSU figured out a way to get Beers going.

If Tara decides to go with two bigs (such as Brink & Betts) in that new high-low offense, how effective do you think that will be against USC's defense? You mentioned Marshall and Akunwafo were effective against Brink but if we had both Brink and Betts at the same, would Gottlieb counter with both of their posts at the same time and if so, how would that change the dynamic?

In any case, having another guard shoot consistently will help alleviate the pressure off of Jump. If whoever is playing PG (assuming the rest of the lineup would be Jump, Jones and a combo of two bigs) can make some jump shots, then that would surely help

RE: WBB: Stanford vs. USC Friday 8pm - mbdude - 02-15-2023

condensed replay of USC Oregon st at 430 on pac12 today

RE: WBB: Stanford vs. USC Friday 8pm - martyup - 02-15-2023

Don't forget that USC was the game when none of our players were willing to attempt a mid-range shot and only Jump would shoot 3s. We've come a long way since then with our mid-range arsenal and players not named Jump willingness to shoot from downtown.

RE: WBB: Stanford vs. USC Friday 8pm - 81alum - 02-15-2023

(02-15-2023, 07:05 PM)martyup Wrote: Don't forget that USC was the game when none of our players were willing to attempt a mid-range shot and only Jump would shoot 3s. We've come a long way since then with our mid-range arsenal and players not named Jump willingness to shoot from downtown.

I agree, Marty. All the changes in offense, as well as the excellent development of Betts and Nivar, have come since that loss. So on that basis we should do better. But USC has their best scorer back who we did not face, and USC has improved on offense more generally since we last saw them. So it is going to be a new kind of game on both sides. Both teams are on the upswing.

(02-15-2023, 04:58 PM)TheFarm07 Wrote: If Tara decides to go with two bigs (such as Brink & Betts) in that new high-low offense, how effective do you think that will be against USC's defense? You mentioned Marshall and Akunwafo were effective against Brink but if we had both Brink and Betts at the same, would Gottlieb counter with both of their posts at the same time and if so, how would that change the dynamic?

Farm, as far as whether USC can counter our High-Low passes--yes, I think they can do so far more effectively than either of the Arizona schools could. But there is a price for anything. If they play Rayah Marshall on Brink and Clarice Akunwafo on Betts, who will they take out? And Akunwafo has been averaging 11 minutes, probably for a reason. Conditioning? She doesn't score much and shoots 41%--pretty bad for a center who mostly does layups. USC needs offense and Akunwafo isn't the answer there. Plus, what if Marshall needs a rest or gets into foul trouble? I imagine Gottlieb has a very good reason for alternating those two and not playing them together.

Now let's say they decide to stick with Rayah Marshall and keep Akunwafo on the bench as her backup. They almost have to put Marshall on Betts. Then who guards Brink? It will probably have to be Sissoku, who is 2-3 inches shorter. I like Brink's chances if that is the case.

Let the chess match begin.

RE: WBB: Stanford vs. USC Friday 8pm - JTM - 02-15-2023

We've got a difficult closing schedule. All of the final 4 games are against ranked teams. And the last two games, perhaps the most important, are away.

RE: WBB: Stanford vs. USC Friday 8pm - martyup - 02-15-2023

(02-15-2023, 10:49 PM)JTM Wrote: We've got a difficult closing schedule. All of the final 4 games are against ranked teams. And the last two games, perhaps the most important, are away.

Yep, and each of those teams has to play Stanford. I'd rather be us than any of them.

But, I'll say it again. There are only 6 must-win games remaining in this season. I don't see this team as being satisfied with a Pac-12 Championship as it's highest achievement.

RE: WBB: Stanford vs. USC Friday 8pm - BostonCard - 02-16-2023

They only have to play Stanford once. Utah and Colorado have tough games at Arizona this week, but also get to play bottom-dwellers ASU and Cal. The only ranked game thatUSC and UCLA have to play is the one against Stanford; they get Cal and home games against UW and WSU, and I’d much rather my chances with one very tough match and three easier ones than four tough games.

BC

RE: WBB: Stanford vs. USC Friday 8pm - old spanish trail - 02-16-2023

This is going to be fun. It's great to be playing important games. Much better than the alternative.

RE: WBB: Stanford vs. USC Friday 8pm - TheWildJacko - 02-16-2023

(02-16-2023, 12:22 AM)BostonCard Wrote: They only have to play Stanford once. Utah and Colorado have tough games at Arizona this week, but also get to play bottom-dwellers ASU and Cal. The only ranked game thatUSC and UCLA have to play is the one against Stanford; they get Cal and home games against UW and WSU, and I’d much rather my chances with one very tough match and three easier ones than four tough games.

BC

All true, but remember UW beat us, Cal took us to the wire in our 2nd game, and WSU has beaten AZ and OR and played both UT and CO close. No easy games in the Pac-12.

RE: WBB: Stanford vs. USC Friday 8pm - warren65 - 02-16-2023

Does anyone know about Rayah Marshall's availability for Friday's game?
She played 28 minutes on Sunday in the Oregon State game. She came out late in the third quarter, never to return again. The announcers were speculating that she was injured when she took a seat at the end of the bench. Given the tightness of this overtime game, it's fair to assume that injury was a factor.

RE: WBB: Stanford vs. USC Friday 8pm - BostonCard - 02-16-2023

(02-16-2023, 11:27 AM)TheWildJacko Wrote:
(02-16-2023, 12:22 AM)BostonCard Wrote: They only have to play Stanford once. Utah and Colorado have tough games at Arizona this week, but also get to play bottom-dwellers ASU and Cal. The only ranked game thatUSC and UCLA have to play is the one against Stanford; they get Cal and home games against UW and WSU, and I’d much rather my chances with one very tough match and three easier ones than four tough games.

BC

All true, but remember UW beat us, Cal took us to the wire in our 2nd game, and WSU has beaten AZ and OR and played both UT and CO close. No easy games in the Pac-12.

I was thinking specifically about UW when I wrote that, so your point is very well taken. That being said, I would rather play UW, WSU, Cal, and ASU than UCLA, USC, Colorado, and Utah, even acknowledging that (save for ASU, who is winless in conference), there are no gimme's in the conference.

BC

RE: WBB: Stanford vs. USC Friday 8pm - stopandpop - 02-16-2023

(02-15-2023, 07:05 PM)martyup Wrote: Don't forget that USC was the game when none of our players were willing to attempt a mid-range shot and only Jump would shoot 3s. We've come a long way since then with our mid-range arsenal and players not named Jump willingness to shoot from downtown.

I believe Brink missed a few 3-point shots as well as several uncontested mid-range shots in that horrible game. With all her offensive skills, her midrange game is streaky at best and she has all, but abandoned shooting the 3-ball.