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Women's Tennis: Top 25 Showdown in Austin - ColoradoTree - 02-24-2023

The rankings have flipped the switch from a coaches' poll to the automated rankings, which means that what would have been a matchup between the #12 and #4 teams in the country last week (and the #8 and #1 teams in the preseason) is now the #22 Stanford Cardinal going to Austin to play the #8 Texas Longhorns. At a certain point, your resume takes over, and if you don't have enough quality wins to feed into the equation, you're gonna drop, no matter how good coaches think you are.

Texas so far this year

The two-time defending national champions were also tabbed as the #1 team in the preseason despite losing their top two players, both sophomores last season. Peyton Stearns joined the pro ranks, and Kylie Collins left for LSU, so while I think this is an excellent team, I probably would have had them below UNC, Duke, and maybe a couple of others, at least until we saw how their terrific freshman class panned out (they had the #4 and #8 newcomers in the preseason). Texas has dropped just one match, a 4-1 upset by an Iowa State team that seems to be surprising everyone this year. 

In reality, this is a top ten matchup. Both teams have plausible designs on a deep postseason run. 

When?

Saturday, 2/25 at 10:00am Pacific.

Lineups

Anyway, here's what the singles lineup likely will be:

1. #5 Connie Ma vs. Nicole Khirin (preseason #4 newcomer)
2. #25 Alexandra Yepifanova vs. #60 Charlotte Chavatipon
3. #20 Angelica Blake vs. #79 Sabina Zeynalova
4. #72 Alexis Blokhina vs. Malaika Rapolu
5. Valencia Xu vs. Taisiya Pachkaleva (transfer from Pepperdine who mostly played 3 and 4 last year for the Waves)
6. Sara Choy vs. Nicole Rivkin (preseason #8 newcomer)

#97 Marlee Zein could also figure at the 6 spot. The Texas lineup has been something of a moving target. 

How to watch: https://texassports.com/sports/2018/2/8/texas-tennis-center-live-video
Live stats: http://sidearmstats.com/texas/wtennis/xlive.htm

Prediction: I'll go out on a limb and predict that Stanford takes the doubles point and gets singles wins from Ma, Blokhina, and Choy to get the win. Maybe we drop one or two matches, but I don't think there will be a match where we get smoked.

RE: Women's Tennis: Top 25 Showdown in Austin - oldalum - 02-24-2023

(02-24-2023, 12:59 PM)ColoradoTree Wrote:   I'll go out on a limb and predict that Stanford takes the doubles point 
That's a pretty thin limb, but I hope it's thick enough!

RE: Women's Tennis: Top 25 Showdown in Austin - fullmetal - 02-24-2023

I would be there except I have serious obligations all weekend...what a matchup!

RE: Women's Tennis: Top 25 Showdown in Austin - ColoradoTree - 02-24-2023

(02-24-2023, 03:08 PM)oldalum Wrote:  
(02-24-2023, 12:59 PM)ColoradoTree Wrote:   I'll go out on a limb and predict that Stanford takes the doubles point 
That's a pretty thin limb, but I hope it's thick enough!

For whatever reason, Texas is one of those other top teams that also struggles with doubles, so it's not as crazy as it sounds!

RE: Women's Tennis: Top 25 Showdown in Austin - ColoradoTree - 02-25-2023

And Texas takes doubles, because we can’t even win doubles against relatively not great doubles teams. There is a surprising lack of grit on this team that is unusual for Lele-coached teams, especially given our talent level. Let’s see if they can fight back in singles.

RE: Women's Tennis: Top 25 Showdown in Austin - TheFarm07 - 02-25-2023

It looks like we took 5 of the 6 singles matches - three in straight sets and two in three set battles and the one we did lose went to 6-4 in the third (Xu at #5 singles).

Hopefully ColoradoTree can do a post-match analysis - beating a top 10 team at home will surely help the confidence if nothing else (especially with them being the two-time defending national champions)

RE: Women's Tennis: Top 25 Showdown in Austin - ColoradoTree - 02-27-2023

Sorry, folks, I was out and about doing kids' sports stuff all weekend, so I didn't get the chance to chime in. But holy mackerel, what a performance in singles!

We once again saw Lele flip our top two, with Yepifanova at 1 against Khirin and Ma at 2 against Chavatipon. (Lele also had Yepifanova at 1 against St. Mary's last week.) I remain of the view that Ma is objectively better than Yepifanova right now, and it's not close, but Lele wouldn't be doing this if she wasn't seeing something in practice that was making her think differently. 

Yet, those two were the first off court, with Yepifanova cruising 6-4, 6-3 to tie the match up at 1-1, and then Ma soon thereafter giving us a 2-1 lead with a 6-2, 6-4 win. Blokhina put us on the verge on Court 4 with a 7-6, 6-4 win, but the remaining three matches were headed to third sets. (Blake and Xu had won their first sets but dropped the second, while Choy got smoked in her first set, 1-6, but came back to take the second, 6-4.) We just needed one of the three, while Texas needed all three. 

Texas closed the gap to 3-2, with Xu dropping her third set 6-4, and the other two matches were on serve in the third, so we'd need to find something and get a break. And we did, with Blake getting an opportune break late in the third to clinch the match with a 6-2, 2-6, 6-4 win over Zeynalova. That seems to invigorate Choy, who then got a late break of her own to win her match 1-6, 6-4, 7-5 to make the final score 5-2. 

A great, great win, and the best one we've had so far this year. We'll see how that affects the updated rankings coming out tomorrow. We'll rise and Texas will fall, but how much? 

I complained about a perceived lack of grit sometimes, and how the body language sometimes falters when this team fails to finish. Well, I couldn't keep as close an eye on this match as I would've liked, but winning the top two courts in routine fashion? Getting a gutsy straight-sets-in-name-only type win from Blokhina? You don't win 7-6, 6-4 without a lot of fight and willpower. That sort of scoreline shows you're finding something extra in the key moments. And then with three matches going to third sets, you saw some different stories. Xu started strong but then wasn't competitive in the second and was close but not quite there in the third. Blake dominated her first, got dominated right back in the second, but shook it off and reasserted herself in the third. And Choy got crushed in the first (the only first set Texas won), before winning a couple of close, competitive sets. I'm glad they played the match out, because that's the kind of thing that can really instill confidence in a player and be a reservoir of grit as the season goes on. 

We needed a win like this for lots of reasons. Rankings. A shot at hosting a super regional. Some self-belief heading into Pac-12 play. Because while we don't necessarily have teams on the level of Duke and Georgia that we'll be facing in the Pac-12, there are a number of very good teams that can absolutely beat us if we're not at our best. UCLA's current ranking doesn't reflect how dangerous that team can be. USC has the talent to beat anyone on the right day. Arizona State has seemingly joined that top tier of teams. Cal has struggled early, but just like UCLA, they have the talent to beat us depending on the day. Washington can be dangerous. Arizona, long a doormat, is now competitive against good, ranked teams. Still a lot of work to be done!

RE: Women's Tennis: Top 25 Showdown in Austin - oldalum - 02-27-2023

(02-27-2023, 09:42 AM)ColoradoTree Wrote:  I remain of the view that Ma is objectively better than Yepifanova right now, and it's not close, but Lele wouldn't be doing this if she wasn't seeing something in practice that was making her think differently. 
Could it be a match-up consideration, that in scouting our opponents she is seeing weaknesses that different of our players can exploit better? Or put another way, can she can construct a stronger game plan for one of our players versus the other? Or am I too immersed in basketball season, where matchups are key?

RE: Women's Tennis: Top 25 Showdown in Austin - ColoradoTree - 03-01-2023

(02-27-2023, 10:29 AM)oldalum Wrote:  
(02-27-2023, 09:42 AM)ColoradoTree Wrote:  I remain of the view that Ma is objectively better than Yepifanova right now, and it's not close, but Lele wouldn't be doing this if she wasn't seeing something in practice that was making her think differently. 
Could it be a match-up consideration, that in scouting our opponents she is seeing weaknesses that different of our players can exploit better? Or put another way, can she can construct a stronger game plan for one of our players versus the other? Or am I too immersed in basketball season, where matchups are key?

In theory, you're not really allowed to play matchups in tennis, because you're obligated by rule to rank your players in order of ability. Of course, form can impact that, so if Lele's seeing something from Ma that she doesn't like, it's fine to drop her for a bit. And you can always move one line per match, so Ma at 2 means she can return to 1 at anytime. But Texas would've been the kind of match you do that for, so I'm not sure.

But certainly there are times when you do play matchups, and you realize that a particular player's strengths feed into the weaknesses of a likely opponent. So you can try to do that, but you also run the risk the other team wouldn't play their top player at that slot for the same matchup concerns. 

FYI, new team rankings dropped yesterday, and here's where we and our opponents this season rank:

6. Georgia (L)
9. Pepperdine (maybe it'll get rescheduled?)
10. Texas (road W)
11. Duke (L)
13. Stanford (up 9 spots)
18. Vanderbilt (W)
25. Arizona State (home)
26. Washington (home)
31. USC (away)
37. San Diego (home)
40. Florida State (W)
43. Arizona (home)
53. Oregon (away)
55. Cal (home)
56. Utah (away)
63. UCLA (away)

Not in Top 75: St. Mary's (W), UC Davis (W), Kansas State (W), Colorado (away), USF (home), and Washington State (home).

So, you can see that right now we only have two good wins and no real marquee win opportunities left on the schedule, given the disappointing early showing from the Pac-12 teams that were expected to be better. And some of the matches that we're counting on being useful wins for us look like no-win situations instead--UCLA is so much better than #63, but they're 3-2 with no impressive wins to their name, so there they sit. So, either we beat them and don't get much credit for it, or we go to Westwood and take a loss that would hang around our necks like an albatross. They don't have a lot of non-conference opportunities yet to prove it, either. They get #3 Ohio State and #9 Pepperdine, and both at home, so in those two matches, we'll all be big Bruins fans (assuming we don't reschedule the Pepperdine match). And for us, we are now rooting for Georgia and Vanderbilt to dominate the SEC, Texas to do the same in the Big 12, and Duke to roll over the ACC. The stars are really going to have to align to get us into the top 8 to finish the season, because the rest of the Pac-12 teams aren't doing their part. 

I'm not looking forward to that LA road trip. Two teams that are good enough to beat you, but where the rankings don't reflect it. Ugh.

RE: Women's Tennis: Top 25 Showdown in Austin - ColoradoTree - 03-06-2023

I didn't do a separate thread for it, but Pac-12 play kicked off this weekend with Stanford heading to Boulder on Friday and Salt Lake City on Sunday. 

The CU match went much as expected, where we managed to win the doubles point (though Choy/Yepifanova managed to lose on Court 2), and then we got straight set wins from everyone except Blokhina on Court 4, who retired down 6-4, 2-0, so presumably something was hindering her throughout the match and then got worse. So, a 6-1 score against CU is a little surprising, but it wasn't like one of our regulars lost at full strength. Oh, and the lineup was back to normal otherwise, with Ma at 1 and Yepifanova at 2. Then at Utah, we dropped the doubles point (which, I mean, come on), though Ma/Xu at least won on Court 3. Choy/Yepifanova isn't working on Court 2. Blokhina skipped singles, which meant Xu and Choy slid up a line and Sun entered the lineup at 6. Ma, Blake, and Choy rolled on Courts 1, 3, and 5, and Yepifanova and Xu had surprisingly close straight set wins on 2 and 4, and Sun actually lost her match, 6-1, 7-5. 

So, two wins, but we should be winning these 7-0, not 6-1, or 5-2. I'll give Blokhina a pass for the CU match--clearly something must have been bothering her. But dropping doubles to Utah just isn't okay. And the fact that it was Sun who entered the lineup at 6 rather than Geller or Houghton, is a little shocking. Sun doesn't seem ready for prime time, but this indicates she's ahead of Geller and Houghton in the internal pecking order, which either means they're injured or that they've suffered a shocking drop in form. 

You can't just keep dropping doubles and expect to get four singles wins all the time. Yeah, it works a lot, and it's exciting when it does, but it's also the recipe for some 4-3 losses to good teams. 

Last match for a while is this Wednesday vs. the USF Dons, and then our players get some study time before finals and then Spring Break--we visit USC and UCLA the weekend of the 26th-28th, which are exactly the kind of road matches we could drop if we keep mailing in the doubles point.

RE: Women's Tennis: Top 25 Showdown in Austin - TheFarm07 - 03-06-2023

Thanks for the update! Has Lele shown in the past a willingness to mix up the doubles lineup, pairing different players with new partners or are you usually pretty set during the season with the pairings?

Just trying to think of ways to solve our doubles conundrum.