Top Stanford Football players - 2023 - Printable Version
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Top Stanford Football players - 2023 - msqueri - 08-27-2023
I had fun in 2022, 2021 2020, and 2019 taking a stab at a top 35 for the Stanford football team and wouldn't miss giving it a go this year to see how I can do amidst lots of inexperience, new scheme, and general uncertainty. The exercise is meant to predict how good players will be this fall (so upperclassmen will tend to be higher than newcomers). The basic rule of it is I'm trying to predict the top 35 players by snap count at the end of the season and rank them in terms of quality (best understood in terms of things like quality in relation to Pac-12 peers, which can be approximated by year-end PFF grades). Specialists are not ranked here. The top 35 in snaps is essentially synonymous with the non-specialists who matter in a season, those with approximately 200 snaps over the course of a 12 game season give or take a dozen snaps or so.
You can see in the earlier threads that I did quite well at this the first two years before whiffing in 2021. Last year, I nailed the top two (as I did in 2020) and got 29 of the top 35 right (compared to 28 each of the two prior years, and would have had 30 if I knew the Bragg retirement news a few days earlier) but struggled with the top ten (getting four of ten for the second year in a row). Let's see how I can do with a new staff:
1. David Bailey
2. Collin Wright
3. Benjamin Yurosek
4. Gaethan Bernadel
5. Ernest "RJ" Cooper
6. Teva Tafiti
7. Justin Lamson
8. Ashton Daniels
9. Casey Filkins
10. Lance Keneley
11. EJ Smith
12. Jack Leyrer
13. Tristan Sinclair
14. Jimmy Wyrick
15. Joshua Thompson
16. John Humphreys
17. Zahran Manley
18. Levi Rogers
19. Mudia Reuben
20. Simi Pale
21. Elic Ayomanor
22. Aaron Armitage
23. Jaden Slocum
24. Fisher Anderson
25. Tiger Bachmeier
26. Jaxson Moi
27. Trevor Mayberry
28. Omari Porter
29. Connor McLaughlin
30. Sam Roush
31. Alaka'i Gilman
32. Anthony Franklin
33. Tobin Phillips
34. Scotty Edwards
35. Zach Buckey
Apologies to Spencer Jorgensen, Matt Rose, Wilfredo Aybar, Silas Star, Bryce Farrell, Alec Bank, James Pogorelc, Ryan Butler, Sedrick Irvin, and Spencer Lytle, among others. QB is enough of an uncertainty that it didn't feel right guessing and leaving QB2 off.
In general, my methodology is pretty self-explanatory and generally aligns with what other people would understand with a "top players" list but occasionally there are oddities. The one this year may be Armitage; I'm not even sure he's going to be a significant player for us, much less be better than his position mates, but the exercise I go through here is to forecast out our top 35 most relied on (snap count) guys and then forecast out how I foresee them grading. In Armitage's case I see spot duty asked to get after the QB, and I could see him grading better on his given plays than his mates who have less glamorous and more voluminous work. A similar rationale applies for why a guy I think a guy like Cooper who is facing a lot of competition just for playing time could nonetheless grade so high....his explosiveness and body just jump off the screen (and I did try to take into account trajectory and I think it's possible Cooper begins as OLB4 or so but talent wins out).
Obviously there are judgment calls galore here. Would love to hear others' thoughts.
RE: Top Stanford players - 2023 - cardcrimson - 08-27-2023
(08-27-2023, 12:43 PM)msqueri Wrote: I had fun in 2022, 2021 2020, and 2019 taking a stab at a top 35 for the Stanford football team and wouldn't miss giving it a go this year to see how I can do amidst lots of inexperience, new scheme, and general uncertainty. The exercise is meant to predict how good players will be this fall (so upperclassmen will tend to be higher than newcomers). The basic rule of it is I'm trying to predict the top 35 players by snap count at the end of the season and rank them in terms of quality (best understood in terms of things like quality in relation to Pac-12 peers, which can be approximated by year-end PFF grades). Specialists are not ranked here. The top 35 in snaps is essentially synonymous with the non-specialists who matter in a season, those with approximately 200 snaps over the course of a 12 game season give or take a dozen snaps or so.
You can see in the earlier threads that I did quite well at this the first two years before whiffing in 2021. Last year, I nailed the top two (as I did in 2020) and got 29 of the top 35 right (compared to 28 each of the two prior years, and would have had 30 if I knew the Bragg retirement news a few days earlier) but struggled with the top ten (getting four of ten for the second year in a row). Let's see how I can do with a new staff:
1. David Bailey
2. Collin Wright
3. Benjamin Yurosek
4. Gaethan Bernadel
5. Ernest "RJ" Cooper
6. Teva Tafiti
7. Justin Lamson
8. Ashton Daniels
9. Casey Filkins
10. Lance Keneley
11. EJ Smith
12. Jack Leyrer
13. Tristan Sinclair
14. Jimmy Wyrick
15. Joshua Thompson
16. John Humphreys
17. Zahran Manley
18. Levi Rogers
19. Mudia Reuben
20. Simi Pale
21. Elic Ayomanor
22. Aaron Armitage
23. Jaden Slocum
24. Fisher Anderson
25. Tiger Bachmeier
26. Jaxson Moi
27. Trevor Mayberry
28. Omari Porter
29. Connor McLaughlin
30. Sam Roush
31. Alaka'i Gilman
32. Anthony Franklin
33. Tobin Phillips
34. Scotty Edwards
35. Zach Buckey
Apologies to Spencer Jorgensen, Matt Rose, Wilfredo Aybar, Silas Star, Bryce Farrell, Alec Bank, James Pogorelc, Ryan Butler, Sedrick Irvin, and Spencer Lytle, among others. QB is enough of an uncertainty that it didn't feel right guessing and leaving QB2 off.
In general, my methodology is pretty self-explanatory and generally aligns with what other people would understand with a "top players" list but occasionally there are oddities. The one this year may be Armitage; I'm not even sure he's going to be a significant player for us, much less be better than his position mates, but the exercise I go through here is to forecast out our top 35 most relied on (snap count) guys and then forecast out how I foresee them grading. In Armitage's case I see spot duty asked to get after the QB, and I could see him grading better on his given plays than his mates who have less glamorous and more voluminous work. A similar rationale applies for why a guy I think a guy like Cooper who is facing a lot of competition just for playing time could nonetheless grade so high....his explosiveness and body just jump off the screen (and I did try to take into account trajectory and I think it's possible Cooper begins as OLB4 or so but talent wins out).
Obviously there are judgment calls galore here. Would love to hear others' thoughts.
I'm clearly not plugged in at all. Who are these guys? I sure hope I recognize more than half the names by season's end. . . .
RE: Top Stanford players - 2023 - gailtate - 08-27-2023
(08-27-2023, 01:35 PM)cardcrimson Wrote:(08-27-2023, 12:43 PM)msqueri Wrote: I had fun in 2022, 2021 2020, and 2019 taking a stab at a top 35 for the Stanford football team and wouldn't miss giving it a go this year to see how I can do amidst lots of inexperience, new scheme, and general uncertainty. The exercise is meant to predict how good players will be this fall (so upperclassmen will tend to be higher than newcomers). The basic rule of it is I'm trying to predict the top 35 players by snap count at the end of the season and rank them in terms of quality (best understood in terms of things like quality in relation to Pac-12 peers, which can be approximated by year-end PFF grades). Specialists are not ranked here. The top 35 in snaps is essentially synonymous with the non-specialists who matter in a season, those with approximately 200 snaps over the course of a 12 game season give or take a dozen snaps or so.
You can see in the earlier threads that I did quite well at this the first two years before whiffing in 2021. Last year, I nailed the top two (as I did in 2020) and got 29 of the top 35 right (compared to 28 each of the two prior years, and would have had 30 if I knew the Bragg retirement news a few days earlier) but struggled with the top ten (getting four of ten for the second year in a row). Let's see how I can do with a new staff:
1. David Bailey
2. Collin Wright
3. Benjamin Yurosek
4. Gaethan Bernadel
5. Ernest "RJ" Cooper
6. Teva Tafiti
7. Justin Lamson
8. Ashton Daniels
9. Casey Filkins
10. Lance Keneley
11. EJ Smith
12. Jack Leyrer
13. Tristan Sinclair
14. Jimmy Wyrick
15. Joshua Thompson
16. John Humphreys
17. Zahran Manley
18. Levi Rogers
19. Mudia Reuben
20. Simi Pale
21. Elic Ayomanor
22. Aaron Armitage
23. Jaden Slocum
24. Fisher Anderson
25. Tiger Bachmeier
26. Jaxson Moi
27. Trevor Mayberry
28. Omari Porter
29. Connor McLaughlin
30. Sam Roush
31. Alaka'i Gilman
32. Anthony Franklin
33. Tobin Phillips
34. Scotty Edwards
35. Zach Buckey
Apologies to Spencer Jorgensen, Matt Rose, Wilfredo Aybar, Silas Star, Bryce Farrell, Alec Bank, James Pogorelc, Ryan Butler, Sedrick Irvin, and Spencer Lytle, among others. QB is enough of an uncertainty that it didn't feel right guessing and leaving QB2 off.
In general, my methodology is pretty self-explanatory and generally aligns with what other people would understand with a "top players" list but occasionally there are oddities. The one this year may be Armitage; I'm not even sure he's going to be a significant player for us, much less be better than his position mates, but the exercise I go through here is to forecast out our top 35 most relied on (snap count) guys and then forecast out how I foresee them grading. In Armitage's case I see spot duty asked to get after the QB, and I could see him grading better on his given plays than his mates who have less glamorous and more voluminous work. A similar rationale applies for why a guy I think a guy like Cooper who is facing a lot of competition just for playing time could nonetheless grade so high....his explosiveness and body just jump off the screen (and I did try to take into account trajectory and I think it's possible Cooper begins as OLB4 or so but talent wins out).
Obviously there are judgment calls galore here. Would love to hear others' thoughts.
I'm clearly not plugged in at all. Who are these guys? I sure hope I recognize more than half the names by season's end. . . .
Slim pickin's. Not to be confused with Slim Pickens (a real star).
RE: Top Stanford players - 2023 - cardcrimson - 08-27-2023
(08-27-2023, 02:37 PM)gailtate Wrote: Slim pickin's. Not to be confused with Slim Pickens (a real star).
Do you really need the parenthesizes? Perhaps Hedley Lamarr should be in charge of our recruiting. . . .
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fLpmswBKVN4
RE: Top Stanford players - 2023 - gailtate - 08-27-2023
(08-27-2023, 02:55 PM)cardcrimson Wrote:(08-27-2023, 02:37 PM)gailtate Wrote: Slim pickin's. Not to be confused with Slim Pickens (a real star).
Do you really need the parenthesizes? Perhaps Hedley Lamarr should be in charge of our recruiting. . . .
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fLpmswBKVN4
Mel Brooks rules.
Langdude - Langdude - 08-27-2023
Somebody’s gotta go back and get a s**tload of dimes.
-m.
RE: Top Stanford players - 2023 - CowboyIndian - 08-28-2023
Slim getting his lights punched out at the Cow Palace in 1950. He'd bought a miniature Brahma bull from Phil Stadtler (puncher) and hadn't paid for it. That's Willie Shoemaker looking down on the action. A cowboy named Buckshot Sorrells from Modoc County just kicked the cop in the head because he was trying to break it up. LOL!
![[Image: full]](https://emuseum.tempe.gov/internal/media/dispatcher/27175/full)
RE: Top Stanford players - 2023 - msqueri - 11-29-2023
Time for the annual check-in comparing how I did in predicting Stanford's top contributors with how PFF viewed our players as faring. Here are the top 35 contributors for 2023 Stanford football ranked in order of PFF grades (with the delta between predicted and actual included parenthetically):
1. Elic Ayomanor - 74.4 (+20)
2. Collin Wright - 73.2 (nailed it!)
3. Scotty Edwards - 72.6 (+31)
4. Alaka'i Gilman - 68.7 (+27)
5. Levi Rogers - 67.9 (+13)
6. Zahran Manley - 67.2 (+11)
7. EJ Smith - 66.7 (+4)
8. Justin Lamson - 65.8 (-1)
9. Tobin Phillips - 65.1 (+22)
10. Ashton Daniels - 64.4 (-2)
11. Connor McLaughlin - 64.1 (+18)
12. Benjamin Yurosek - 63.1 (-9)
13. Lance Keneley - 61.9 (-3)
14. David Bailey - 61.7 (-13)
15. Tiger Bachmeier - 61.4 (+10)
16. Jaxson Moi - 60.6 (+10)
17. Jake Maikkula - 59.8 (not on the board preseason)
17. Mudia Reuben - 59.8 (+2)
19. Anthony Franklin - 58.9 (+13)
20. Wilfredo Aybar - 58.3 (not on the board preseason)
21. Bryce Farrell - 58.0 (not on the board preseason)
22. Casey Filkins - 57.7 (-13)
23. Tevarua Tafiti - 57.2 (-17)
24. Sam Roush - 57.1 (+6)
25. Luke Baklenko - 56.1 (not on the board preseason)
26. Zach Buckey - 56.0 (+9)
27. Mitch Leigber - 55.3 (not on the board preseason)
28. Simione Pale - 54.7 (-8)
29. JShawn Frausto-Ramos - 53.7 (not on the board preseason)
30. Gaethan Bernadel - 53.6 (-26)
31. Trevor Mayberry - 53.2 (-4)
32. Fisher Anderson - 48.9 (-8)
33. Spencer Jorgensen - 47.8 (not on the board preseason)
34. Tristan Sinclair - 45.3 (-21)
35. Jaden Slocum - 44.2 (-12)
Observations:
* This was my worst year in guessing the top ten. I only got three right, compared to four each of the last two years and a remarkable eight in 2020. I got one of the top two right, which is pretty good but I got both right in 2020 and 2022. I always get 28-29 of the top 35 right and this year was the same, 28 right for the third time in four years (29 the other year). To the extent I was worse at predicting the standout players this year I think that is probably pretty predictable in a rebuilding year. There are less standouts in general on bad teams. I think there is a reason I did better in 2020 - it was a decent team, unlike our last three years.
* The players I got wrong were Ernest Cooper, Jack Leyrer, Jimmy Wyrick, Joshua Thompson, John Humphreys, Aaron Armitage, and Omari Porter. Wyrick and Humphreys were clear cases of the kind of injuries we see every year. I had a very close judgment call to make on whether a fifth DL or third ILB would get more snaps and I guessed wrong but don't feel badly about it as Jorgensen was the first guy outside of the bubble for me preseason. I was simply wrong on who would play more between Porter and Leigber. Cooper is an enigma for all of us on why he doesn't play more. Leyrer is one of the big mysteries/wildcards of the season and I suspect a doghouse situation. And Thompson is simply a player I'd been a fan of based on very limited data points and was probably wrong about.
* If PFF grades were available for every year in Stanford's history you might have to go back to 1977 and Darrin Nelson to find a year when a football freshman was the best player on our team (though prime James Lofton would have something to say about that). Ayomanor was spectacular.
* It's startling to see such over-performance compared to my expectations for the DBs, especially since I feel like I was consistently the DBs biggest fan in the off-season. I always knew it would be a strength of the team. But I really don't think any of us could have anticipated how well Gregory's guys would play.
* The least surprising thing here is how wrong I was about the DL room. I anticipated this at the time, posting that I felt I could be underestimating that room.
* I had the QB room pegged from the jump in terms of the overall performance and that both guys would play a lot. It's an artifact of the PFF approach that Lamson ranks as high as he does - remember, these are rate grades, and he gets a lot of credit for the running - and is not one of our ten most important players in my view, but I did have the general level of QB play pegged right.
* I was wildly off on the entire second level of the defense. I think I put too much faith in the Wisconsin coaching staff/scheme coming so intact and it translating right away. It is a big surprise our ILBs graded as poorly as they did given what Wisconsin defenses do. This is grist for lots of debate. Opinions differ wildly on Sinclair. Bernadel is somebody I have liked more than his PFF grades, but like Sinclair he grades really poorly. Bailey and Tafiti did not live up to the hype. Hoping better days ahead for our OLBs and ILBs, not a good year at all. A Wisconsin-style defense with nobody in those groups above a 62 grade is appalling.
* Four true freshmen key contributors is a lot. I imagine we see something similar next year.
* We know this, but this team was awful. Three key contributors with 70+ grades is hard to fathom. That is definitely the worst PFF has ever graded us at the top end. One silver lining is that we actually did better in avoiding disastrously incompetent performances, with four sub-50 grades better than the five in 2022 and eight in 2021. It's also the only time in the last three years we didn't have a laughable sub-40 grade or two. In short, a nice silver lining of this season is that our weakest links weren't as weak or as plentiful as the last two years under Shaw.
* But there was no Drake Nugent, Drew Dalman, or Paulson Adebo either. Ayomanor wasn't consistent enough to grade at the elite level. Hopefully that's the step he takes next year.
* The thing to watch every offseason is how many of the top players return. This year Bailey, Filkins, Leyrer, and Keneley were the only top 15 guys to return. We should be able to double our number of top guys back. Beyond that I'm not ready to forecast. At first blush it doesn't seem like we have very much talent returning but it's an improvement. The most important thing probably is that heading into this year we had zero players who were proven 70+ guys and presumably next year we'll have three to build around.
RE: Top Stanford Football players - 2023 - terry - 11-30-2023
Thanks for the detailed analysis. I agree with you in liking Bernadel more than these ratings would suggest. And I don't know whether I would have guessed that four of our top six players were our starting DBs.
RE: Top Stanford Football players - 2023 - needle - 11-30-2023
(11-30-2023, 10:06 AM)terry Wrote: Thanks for the detailed analysis. I agree with you in liking Bernadel more than these ratings would suggest. And I don't know whether I would have guessed that four of our top six players were our starting DBs.
I have always felt like these grades have much more value when evaluating offensive lineman than any other position, and I still don't understand exactly what they mean even for linemen.
RE: Top Stanford Football players - 2023 - SkiBum80 - 11-30-2023
I think is pretty well accepted by us armchair Coaches that our OLine's and DLine's struggled pretty badly this season.
Which is not a surprise given the decimating abandon-ship actions by most of our experienced linemen during the last off season.
So while I'm not aware of the exact algorithm used to calculate the performance grades, I suspect that the struggling lines could have ended up weighing down, bogging down, the performance numbers on the whole rest of the team.
When we were on Offense, if our OLine didn't reliably open up running lanes, or worse let the D through to party in the backfield, then how good a grade could our RB's (or a running TE or WR) get? While we were in pass protect, if our QB only got 2 to 3 sec max of protect and decision time, before a sack or chased outta pocket, then how great a grade could he or the TE's and Receivers be expected to get?
While on Defense, if our DLine got pushed around and big running lane holes opened up, then of course these linemen and LB's grades not gonna look good.
If we were pass rushing but didn't get quick penetration, and their QB got 4, 5, or more seconds to calmly go through his progressions, then this made it so much harder for our DB's to cover well than if our rush would have forced their QB into quick and panicky throws.
I'm not making excuses for anyone.
Just conjecturing (rightly or wrongly) that if our OLine wasn't strong, it might have bogged down the grades of our entire offense.
And likewise if our DLine wasn't strong, there might have been be a similar bog down of grades to our entire defense including to our DB's.