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OT: I'm rooting for Arizona - cctop - 11-20-2023

I've got a soft spot in my heart for Arizona to win the Pac-12 in its final year.

An Arizona win against ASU (highly likely) and an Oregon State win over Oregon (the betting line is Oregon -13.5) would put Arizona into the title game.

Since Arizona joined the Pac-10 in 1978 they've finished 1st in the conference only once -- a 3-way tie in 1993 -- and have never gone to the Rose Bowl.

Colorado is the only other Pac-12 team never to have gone to the Rose Bowl. They joined the conference in 2011.

RE: OT: I'm rooting for Arizona - 82lsju - 11-20-2023

(11-20-2023, 06:12 PM)cctop Wrote:  I've got a soft spot in my heart for Arizona to win the Pac-12 in its final year.

An Arizona win against ASU (highly likely) and an Oregon State win over Oregon (the betting line is Oregon -13.5) would put Arizona into the title game.

Since Arizona joined the Pac-10 in 1978 they've finished 1st in the conference only once -- a 3-way tie in 1993 -- and have never gone to the Rose Bowl.

Colorado is the only other Pac-12 team never to have gone to the Rose Bowl. They joined the conference in 2011.

the Rose Bowl game this season is a CFP semifinal game....so even if they win the Pac-12 they will be going elsewhere....

RE: OT: I'm rooting for Arizona - Goose - 11-20-2023

(11-20-2023, 06:12 PM)cctop Wrote:  I've got a soft spot in my heart for Arizona to win the Pac-12 in its final year.
So do I, and I hope they win for another practical reason. Virtually everybody at Arizona believes Fisch is gone at the end of the season. He will get hired at a more "successful" football school for more money. If Fisch leaves, the whole team will go into the portal to follow him. However, everybody in the market wants the new coach ASAP to stabilize recruiting and the portal. If Arizona plays in the championship, Fisch isn't going to be able to avoid coaching in it. If they win, they get an NY6 bowl. Will Fisch be able to say no to coaching in that game? Some say no. That could possibly prevent him from getting hired away. Slim hope, but maybe all their is.

Arizona can't offer Fisch a raise, even if they get  money from "donors", because of the $240 million shortfall and the subsequent hiring freeze/ 2% budget cut. This is on top of an athletic department that owes the University $50 million and that has a "systemic budget deficit". Politically impossible.

RE: OT: I'm rooting for Arizona - msqueri - 11-20-2023

(11-20-2023, 07:41 PM)Goose Wrote:  
(11-20-2023, 06:12 PM)cctop Wrote:  I've got a soft spot in my heart for Arizona to win the Pac-12 in its final year.
So do I, and I hope they win for another practical reason. Virtually everybody at Arizona believes Fisch is gone at the end of the season. He will get hired at a more "successful" football school for more money. If Fisch leaves, the whole team will go into the portal to follow him. However, everybody in the market wants the new coach ASAP to stabilize recruiting and the portal. If Arizona plays in the championship, Fisch isn't going to be able to avoid coaching in it. If they win, they get an NY6 bowl. Will Fisch be able to say no to coaching in that game? Some say no. That could possibly prevent him from getting hired away. Slim hope, but maybe all their is.

Arizona can't offer Fisch a raise, even if they get  money from "donors", because of the $240 million shortfall and the subsequent hiring freeze/ 2% budget cut. This is on top of an athletic department that owes the University $50 million and that has a "systemic budget deficit". Politically impossible.

Fisch has done a hell of a job but it is extraordinarily speculative to think he is going to leave for a bigger opportunity elsewhere. There are only a handful of jobs a year bigger than what he has now, and he's not the only excellent coach at a mid-tier power program (Jonathan Smith, Lance Leipold, Chris Kleiman, Mike Elko). And the programs bigger than Arizona may or may not hire from among this group, they could just as easily go for even splashier names/poaching/NFL guys/up and coming coordinators/etc. I think the best bet is that Fisch will still be coaching Arizona next year. Just not that many good jobs open per year. Sure he's a great candidate but so are the others I mentioned and others.

RE: OT: I'm rooting for Arizona - Goose - 11-20-2023

(11-20-2023, 07:49 PM)msqueri Wrote:  Fisch has done a hell of a job but it is extraordinarily speculative to think he is going to leave for a bigger opportunity elsewhere. There are only a handful of jobs a year bigger than what he has now, and he's not the only excellent coach at a mid-tier power program (Jonathan Smith, Lance Leipold, Chris Kleiman, Mike Elko).
Arizona does not see itself as a "mid-tier" power program. They have extraordinary recruiting issues. Tucson is not very attractive to many candidate players. It is definitely not "the big city". UofA is very much the financial "little brother" of ASU and this is getting worse all the time as Phoenix dominates state politics more and more. Obviously the $240 million etc. problem is going to be a major drag on the whole University. Supposedly Fisch himself does not like Tucson. Right now, Fisch can bring with him a whole lot of very good players that are young but proven. His players are (understandably) very loyal to him personally. He is probably in much better shape there than the other coaches you named.  Arizona has a long and frequent history of being a "stepping stone" program that loses their coach to greener pastures. If they ever find a good one, he leaves, and then they flail through a lot of bad coaches before getting a good one (who then leaves). That does make them a bit paranoid :-).
Quote:And the programs bigger than Arizona may or may not hire from among this group, they could just as easily go for even splashier names/poaching/NFL guys/up and coming coordinators/etc. I think the best bet is that Fisch will still be coaching Arizona next year. Just not that many good jobs open per year. Sure he's a great candidate but so are the others I mentioned and others.
Nothing is certain, but the UofA folks are very, very nervous. It only takes one "better offer".
https://athlonsports.com/college-football/michigan-state-spartans-narrows-in-on-four-candidates-jedd-fisch-mike-elko-jason-candle-jonathan-smith

RE: OT: I'm rooting for Arizona - msqueri - 11-20-2023

That’s semantics on mid-tier, probably my fault in choosing the term. I was trying to lump them with the below average in terms of heft programs. I mean, Oregon State isn’t even in a power conference! Kansas is Kansas! There is competition for Fisch in the realm of coaches who are better than their current employers. 

This is a constant parlor game and it feels to me like people assume a) there will be a lot more openings than there are and b) candidates will be sifted through in a meritocratic and rational way. Neither of those is reality. 

The thought experiment to do is just to forecast out where one thinks Fisch will go. Any guesses?

RE: OT: I'm rooting for Arizona - Jamesy - 11-20-2023

(11-20-2023, 10:18 PM)msqueri Wrote:  That’s semantics on mid-tier, probably my fault in choosing the term. I was trying to lump them with the below average in terms of heft programs. I mean, Oregon State isn’t even in a power conference! Kansas is Kansas! There is competition for Fisch in the realm of coaches who are better than their current employers. 

This is a constant parlor game and it feels to me like people assume a) there will be a lot more openings than there are and b) candidates will be sifted through in a meritocratic and rational way. Neither of those is reality. 

The thought experiment to do is just to forecast out where one thinks Fisch will go. Any guesses?

If UCLA ends up firing Chip, Fisch would make sense (refraining from making some kind of fish and chips pun).

RE: OT: I'm rooting for Arizona - Goose - 11-21-2023

(11-20-2023, 10:18 PM)msqueri Wrote:  That’s semantics on mid-tier, probably my fault in choosing the term. I was trying to lump them with the below average in terms of heft programs. I mean, Oregon State isn’t even in a power conference! Kansas is Kansas! There is competition for Fisch in the realm of coaches who are better than their current employers. 

This is a constant parlor game and it feels to me like people assume a) there will be a lot more openings than there are and b) candidates will be sifted through in a meritocratic and rational way. Neither of those is reality.
Understand that labels for these schools are a problem. In reality, they are all unique situations where factors the "general public" is unaware of often play a major role. The UofA paranoia is IMO present to a greater degree than most other places (of any label) though :-).

I think people know fairly accurately how many openings there actually are at any given moment. IMO people do think more coaches that are "on the hot seat" in the press will actually be let go than actually are, so I agree people often theorize as if these are "facts". IMO people create scenarios that support their own hopes/fears. They string together the "facts" they think they know and deprecate all the other "facts" they are aware of that do not fit. These scenarios have differing degrees of meritocracy and reason behind them, irrespective of the process the schools will actually use. That is what makes it a good parlor game. However, some of these people will actually be right :-). FWIW this also describes the way most people deal with any situation that contains a high degree of uncertainty.
Quote:The thought experiment to do is just to forecast out where one thinks Fisch will go. Any guesses?
Fisch has coached "everywhere", but mostly east of the Mississippi. Supposedly, he wants to return to the "east coast". Obviously, that is rumor, but it is plausible. IMO he won't take the Michigan State job even if offered. That is going to be a difficult situation for quite some time and possibly a bit of a "coaching graveyard". Michigan State alums seem to have very high expectations relative to where their program is today. That isn't a problem at Arizona :-).

The UCLA job would be a big step up. Obviously not moving further east though. Fisch has quite a few SoCal players on his current team. They would probably love to return. All that said, it appears ATM that Chip Kelly isn't going anywhere this year. If UCLA does part ways with Kelly, would Fisch be a big enough "name" to lead UCLA into the B1G? IMO no. He would certainly be a great coach for UCLA, but would not make a Lincoln Rileyesque splash in the LA media. FBOW, I think that "counts" a lot in the process.

Syracuse is not a "step up", so not a chance there. I expect Fisch was contacted though, just in case.

RE: OT: I'm rooting for Arizona - SamuelMcF - 11-21-2023

(11-21-2023, 09:49 AM)Goose Wrote:  Fisch has coached "everywhere", but mostly east of the Mississippi. Supposedly, he wants to return to the "east coast". Obviously, that is rumor, but it is plausible. IMO he won't take the Michigan State job even if offered. That is going to be a difficult situation for quite some time and possibly a bit of a "coaching graveyard". Michigan State alums seem to have very high expectations relative to where their program is today. That isn't a problem at Arizona :-).

The UCLA job would be a big step up. Obviously not moving further east though. Fisch has quite a few SoCal players on his current team. They would probably love to return. All that said, it appears ATM that Chip Kelly isn't going anywhere this year. If UCLA does part ways with Kelly, would Fisch be a big enough "name" to lead UCLA into the B1G? IMO no. He would certainly be a great coach for UCLA, but would not make a Lincoln Rileyesque splash in the LA media. FBOW, I think that "counts" a lot in the process.

Syracuse is not a "step up", so not a chance there. I expect Fisch was contacted though, just in case.

Actually, the name (rightly) being floated for UCLA is Jonathan Smith, who was born and raised in Pasadena and has coached in the West his entire career (Montana, Boise, UW, Oregon St). He earned a sizable salary bump and extension last season and is an excellent coach, but his program is on the receiving end of the seismic conference shift so this would make perfect sense if it were to happen.

RE: OT: I'm rooting for Arizona - 82lsju - 11-21-2023

track the open jobs here

https://www.espn.com/college-football/story/_/id/38890311/college-football-coaching-tracker-firings-hirings-latest-news

current list

- Syracuse 
- Texas A&M
- Mississippi State 
- Michigan State
- San Diego State 
- Boise State