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Stanford Coaching Longevity and Success - Jamesy - 08-20-2024

Lele retiring made me look at long term Stanford coaches and national titles and thought it was interesting to share what I found.

There have been several long-time Stanford coaches retiring in the past 8 years or so. Marquess (41(!) years with 2 titles), Posthumus (23 years), Dunning ("only" 16 years, felt like he was here longer, 3 titles), Vargas (20 years, 2 titles), TVD (38 years, 3 titles), Lele (24 years, 10 titles)

Current head coaches that have been here for ~20 years: Conrad Ray (20 years, 2 titles), Glielmi (22 years, 6 titles), John Kosty (17 years, 1 titles), Paul Ratcliffe (21 years, 3 titles), John Tanner (26 years, 9 titles)

Honorable mention: Jeremy Gunn, Anne Walker and Greg Meehan each with 3 titles in 12 years (what a great hiring cycle in 2012). Also an interesting note: Muir was named AD on on 7/27/2012. Meehan was the only one that was hired after Muir was named, he was hired less than a month later.

I believe (and someone will correct me if I'm wrong) the longest tenured current Stanford head coach without a national title is Paul Goldstein with 9 years under his belt. 

Another interesting note: Since Muir became AD in 7/2012, Stanford has won 33 NCAA team titles. Crediting Meehan's hire to Muir's predecessor given the timing, Muir-hired coaches have only won 3 NCAA titles (Hambly WVB x 2, Byrnes women's rowing x 1). Softball, Beach volleyball, women's gymnastics, cross country are all teams with Muir-hired coaches that look like they are close, but interesting that there haven't been more titles won by coaches Muir has hired. I understand that there is inherent bias in that successful coaches stay a long time so the teams most likely to win titles have long standing coaches. With the recent retirements, there should be more opportunity for these new coaches to win titles, but they haven't yet.

RE: Stanford Coaching Longevity and Success - SkiBum80 - 08-21-2024

Good & interesting coach research.
The three big revenue sports recent coach turnover and new hires would be attributable to Muir, though Coach Paye seems more an assumed ascension than Muir's doing.
I think for Coach TT to get to simply a winning season quickly would be a minor miracle achievement.
Coaches Smith and Paye both seem to have stabilized the roster and achieved good recruiting, their first big challenge.
In Coach Smith's case, I assume getting Raynaud back is due to a big assist from Lifetime Cardinal.

RE: Stanford Coaching Longevity and Success - BobK - 08-21-2024

Great post Jamesy. As a long long time season ticket holder for baseball and softball I’m thrilled that both teams have been To several World Series recently. Winning a national title of course easier with fewer teams competing

RE: Stanford Coaching Longevity and Success - Mick - 08-21-2024

(08-21-2024, 06:55 AM)SkiBum80 Wrote:  Good & interesting coach research.
The three big revenue sports recent coach turnover and new hires would be attributable to Muir, though Coach Paye seems more an assumed ascension than Muir's doing.
I think for Coach TT to get to simply a winning season quickly would be a minor miracle achievement.
Coaches Smith and Paye both seem to have stabilized the roster and achieved good recruiting, their first big challenge.
In Coach Smith's case, I assume getting Raynaud back is due to a big assist from Lifetime Cardinal.

Have to agree. Athlon and The Athletic ranks Stanford at #87, fifth worst among FBS teams, only Purdue, ASU, Cincinnati and Vandy are behind them.

I don't see seven wins on their schedule. Cal Poly. SJSU and Cal, both away games, both have preseason rankings better than Stanford. TCU is a late night home game, they'll be playing the second half after 10:30 p.m. body clock time, maybe Stanford can steal that one. Wake Forest, that's five wins, maybe.

I think losses are Louisville, Notre Dame in South Bend, NC State at Raleigh, SMU, at Clemson, Virginia Tech. Six losses.

Syracuse, at Syracuse? September, 4:30 body clock time...possible. They were 6-7 last year. We'd have to win that to get to 6-6. Agreed, it would be a minor miracle.

Assuming Stanford gets to six wins, maybe a minor bowl and a win. Here's the ACC-affiliated bowl schedule, all but one in the Eastern time zone...of course:

Friday, December 20, 2024
Gasparilla Bowl (Tampa, Florida) – 3:30 p.m. ET / ESPN

Friday, December 27, 2024
Birmingham Bowl (Birmingham, Alabama) – Noon or 3:30 p.m. ET / ESPN

Saturday, December 28, 2024
Fenway Bowl (Boston, Massachusetts) – 11 a.m. ET / ESPN
Pinstripe Bowl (The Bronx, New York) – Noon ET / ABC
Pop-Tarts Bowl (Orlando, Florida) – 3:30 p.m. ET / ABC
Military Bowl presented by GoBowling.com (Washington DC) – 5:45 p.m. ET / ESPN

Tuesday, December 31, 2024
Tony the Tiger Sun Bowl (El Paso, Texas) – 2 p.m. ET / CBS

Thursday, January 2, 2025
Gator Bowl (Jacksonville, Florida) – 7:30 p.m. ET / ESPN

Friday, January 3, 2025
Duke’s Mayo Bowl (Charlotte, North Carolina) – 7:30 p.m. ET / ESPN

TBA
Holiday Bowl

RE: Stanford Coaching Longevity and Success - SkiBum80 - 08-21-2024

(08-21-2024, 08:17 AM)Mick Wrote:  
(08-21-2024, 06:55 AM)SkiBum80 Wrote:  Good & interesting coach research.
The three big revenue sports recent coach turnover and new hires would be attributable to Muir, though Coach Paye seems more an assumed ascension than Muir's doing.
I think for Coach TT to get to simply a winning season quickly would be a minor miracle achievement.
Coaches Smith and Paye both seem to have stabilized the roster and achieved good recruiting, their first big challenge.
In Coach Smith's case, I assume getting Raynaud back is due to a big assist from Lifetime Cardinal.

Have to agree. Athlon and The Athletic ranks Stanford at #87, fifth worst among FBS teams, only Purdue, ASU, Cincinnati and Vandy are behind them.

I don't see seven wins on their schedule. Cal Poly. SJSU and Cal, both away games, both have preseason rankings better than Stanford. TCU is a late night home game, they'll be playing the second half after 10:30 p.m. body clock time, maybe Stanford can steal that one. Wake Forest, that's five wins, maybe.

I think losses are Louisville, Notre Dame in South Bend, NC State at Raleigh, SMU, at Clemson, Virginia Tech. Six losses.

Syracuse, at Syracuse? September, 4:30 body clock time...possible. They were 6-7 last year. We'd have to win that to get to 6-6. Agreed, it would be a minor miracle.

Assuming Stanford gets to six wins, maybe a minor bowl and a win. Here's the ACC-affiliated bowl schedule, all but one in the Eastern time zone...of course:

Friday, December 20, 2024
Gasparilla Bowl (Tampa, Florida) – 3:30 p.m. ET / ESPN

Friday, December 27, 2024
Birmingham Bowl (Birmingham, Alabama) – Noon or 3:30 p.m. ET / ESPN

Saturday, December 28, 2024
Fenway Bowl (Boston, Massachusetts) – 11 a.m. ET / ESPN
Pinstripe Bowl (The Bronx, New York) – Noon ET / ABC
Pop-Tarts Bowl (Orlando, Florida) – 3:30 p.m. ET / ABC
Military Bowl presented by GoBowling.com (Washington DC) – 5:45 p.m. ET / ESPN

Tuesday, December 31, 2024
Tony the Tiger Sun Bowl (El Paso, Texas) – 2 p.m. ET / CBS

Thursday, January 2, 2025
Gator Bowl (Jacksonville, Florida) – 7:30 p.m. ET / ESPN

Friday, January 3, 2025
Duke’s Mayo Bowl (Charlotte, North Carolina) – 7:30 p.m. ET / ESPN

TBA
Holiday Bowl

Great notes.  Lots I agree with.
Maybe need move this to Football topic? but in the meantime, I'll carry on here:
Looking over our roster again, seems to my amateur eyes, that Coach TT has made improvements:
QB's are a talented group, not tons experience, and some of that experience not great, but nonetheless looks like a talent pool with potential
RB's another talent looking pool, not tons experience
OL looks more experienced and beefed up
DL same
LB's I dunno
WR's hoping Elic stays healthy, but lots other good options too
Secondary maybe improved some

Overall, looks like improved OL and DL and if so, that will be key to making Cards more competitive.

Given where they were and what Coach TT & Co have to work with in recruiting and for transfers, my expectations are:

2 wins - Does Home Depot keep tar & feathers in stock?
3 wins - Treading water, so still alive. But you can only tread water for so long before drowning
4 wins - OK, alright, not worthy of fireworks celebration, but as Dr Marvin said in the movie: Baby Steps, Bob, Baby Steps
5 wins - Pretty dang good, High Fives for moving really well in the right direction. Respect the Tree, if not Fear it.
6 wins - as Vizzini says in the Princess Bride: "Inconceivable!"

RE: Stanford Coaching Longevity and Success - martyup - 08-21-2024

I'm saying it right now.  Mark my words.  This is a promise.

If we make either the Pop Tarts Bowl or Tony the Tiger Bow, I'M GOING!

[Image: ?u=http%3A%2F%2F31.media.tumblr.com%2Fee...ipo=images]

[Image: ?u=https%3A%2F%2Fi.gifer.com%2F2A1K.gif&...ipo=images]

RE: Stanford Coaching Longevity and Success - Giants - 08-21-2024

Mick dateline='[url=tel:1724253449' Wrote:  1724253449[/url]']
SkiBum80 dateline='[url=tel:1724248506' Wrote:  1724248506[/url]']
Good & interesting coach research.
The three big revenue sports recent coach turnover and new hires would be attributable to Muir, though Coach Paye seems more an assumed ascension than Muir's doing.
I think for Coach TT to get to simply a winning season quickly would be a minor miracle achievement.
Coaches Smith and Paye both seem to have stabilized the roster and achieved good recruiting, their first big challenge.
In Coach Smith's case, I assume getting Raynaud back is due to a big assist from Lifetime Cardinal.

Have to agree. Athlon and The Athletic ranks Stanford at #87, fifth worst among FBS teams, only Purdue, ASU, Cincinnati and Vandy are behind them.

I don't see seven wins on their schedule. Cal Poly. SJSU and Cal, both away games, both have preseason rankings better than Stanford. TCU is a late night home game, they'll be playing the second half after 10:30 p.m. body clock time, maybe Stanford can steal that one. Wake Forest, that's five wins, maybe.

I think losses are Louisville, Notre Dame in South Bend, NC State at Raleigh, SMU, at Clemson, Virginia Tech. Six losses.

Syracuse, at Syracuse? September, 4:30 body clock time...possible. They were 6-7 last year. We'd have to win that to get to 6-6. Agreed, it would be a minor miracle.

Assuming Stanford gets to six wins, maybe a minor bowl and a win. Here's the ACC-affiliated bowl schedule, all but one in the Eastern time zone...of course:

Friday, December 20, 2024
Gasparilla Bowl (Tampa, Florida) – 3:30 p.m. ET / ESPN

Friday, December 27, 2024
Birmingham Bowl (Birmingham, Alabama) – Noon or 3:30 p.m. ET / ESPN

Saturday, December 28, 2024
Fenway Bowl (Boston, Massachusetts) – 11 a.m. ET / ESPN
Pinstripe Bowl (The Bronx, New York) – Noon ET / ABC
Pop-Tarts Bowl (Orlando, Florida) – 3:30 p.m. ET / ABC
Military Bowl presented by GoBowling.com (Washington DC) – 5:45 p.m. ET / ESPN

Tuesday, December 31, 2024
Tony the Tiger Sun Bowl (El Paso, Texas) – 2 p.m. ET / CBS

Thursday, January 2, 2025
Gator Bowl (Jacksonville, Florida) – 7:30 p.m. ET / ESPN

Friday, January 3, 2025
Duke’s Mayo Bowl (Charlotte, North Carolina) – 7:30 p.m. ET / ESPN

TBA
Holiday Bowl

re: Bowls — for the next two years, former P12 teams will honor existing contracts and be assigned to bowls agreed to when they were members of the P12.

RE: Stanford Coaching Longevity and Success - CardinalSagehen - 08-21-2024

I don't think it's easy to rationalize our team's improvement based on roster talent and composition on paper.

You have to discount the freshmen (mostly) for 2024, and we lost considerably more in the transfer portal than we gained. On defense, Keneley (35 tackles), Moi (15 tackles and a 300-pound physique), and Gilman (physical against the run) are gone. On offense, Yurosek went to Georgia which says a lot about his value. In the battle between TT's Love and Other Schools' Money, it appears that Money is usually going to win. 

In fairness, it takes time to establish a new culture. It's great that we retained Elic, but I'm assuming it took some $$$.  I like that Manley, Sinclair, and Phillips are back - especially Manley - but we've likely seen their ceilings after four years as part of really bad defenses.

I think the only hope is that our OL has matured significantly (as mentioned above) and that our players in all position groups have made significant physical and mental gains in their second year in the system. That's hard to quantify but there's always hope.

I will say this - TCU, like Colorado, might be a team that we can beat to get off on the right foot. I read that they have a weak, patchwork OL this year. This suggests to me that they might not be able or willing (Dykes?) to exploit our Achilles' heel since ~2017, our abysmal run defense.

RE: Stanford Coaching Longevity and Success - OCcardinal - 08-21-2024

I read in the Chronicle that TT started with only 74 scholarship players last season, but that they currently have 83 (2 below the max). Hopefully it will at least be easier for TT to manage injuries this season. I haven't seen a tally of how many total injuries we had, but it seemed we were running out of bodies for some position groups last year.

RE: Stanford Coaching Longevity and Success - paloalto - 08-21-2024

(08-20-2024, 11:10 PM)Jamesy Wrote:  I believe (and someone will correct me if I'm wrong) the longest tenured current Stanford head coach without a national title is Paul Goldstein with 9 years under his belt. 

Excellent summary of coaching records at Stanford.  Andrew Fuller, head coach of beach volleyball, has been here 8 years without an NC.   Both Fuller and Goldstein recruit well and have been making it fairly deep into the NCAA tournament on a regular basis.

I think there's a reasonable chance Fuller could get a National Championship in the next few years.  However, some schools like Texas have started throwing around NIL money for beach recruits.  I don't know if Stanford does that.  If they do, it's probably a minimum amount.   There are 23 players on the roster with precious little athletic scholarship money to be divvied out.  Elite beach players continue to come here because of the Stanford name.

RE: Stanford Coaching Longevity and Success - Jamesy - 08-21-2024

(08-21-2024, 04:27 PM)paloalto Wrote:  
(08-20-2024, 11:10 PM)Jamesy Wrote:  I believe (and someone will correct me if I'm wrong) the longest tenured current Stanford head coach without a national title is Paul Goldstein with 9 years under his belt. 

Excellent summary of coaching records at Stanford.  Andrew Fuller, head coach of beach volleyball, has been here 8 years without an NC.   Both Fuller and Goldstein recruit well and have been making it fairly deep into the NCAA tournament on a regular basis.

I think there's a reasonable chance Fuller could get a National Championship in the next few years.  However, some schools like Texas have started throwing around NIL money for beach recruits.  I don't know if Stanford does that.  If they do, it's probably a minimum amount.   There are 23 players on the roster with precious little athletic scholarship money to be divvied out.  Elite beach players continue to come here because of the Stanford name.

Yes, I believe Fuller is the next longest tenured coach without a title at Stanford. However, he's pretty close to one in contrast to Goldstein and his recruiting is still doing pretty good. With every athlete potentially being on a scholarship starting in 2025-2026, I wonder if that could help some of our scholarship limited sports.

RE: Stanford Coaching Longevity and Success - BobK - 08-21-2024

Jamesy, Stanford needs our bucks to have so many more on full scholarship