The CardBoard
Sunday morning thoughts - Big Game - Printable Version

+- The CardBoard (https://thecardboard.org/board)
+-- Forum: C-House! (https://thecardboard.org/board/forum-4.html)
+--- Forum: The CardBoard (https://thecardboard.org/board/forum-5.html)
+--- Thread: Sunday morning thoughts - Big Game (/thread-25307.html)


Sunday morning thoughts - Big Game - msqueri - 11-24-2024

1. Frustrating missed opportunity to make this season feel like progress. It always stinks to lose Big Game but considering this year's team has been one of the worst in Stanford history I was actually somewhat encouraged to see us play a mediocre team more or less credibly in all phases. This year we ended up playing the solid but not great echelon of our schedule - TCU, Syracuse, Virginia Tech, Louisville, Cal - fairly competently, with the Virginia Tech game the only embarrassing one. It has been the weak FBS teams - Wake Forest and NC State - where we beclowned ourselves (which hopefully we can partially redeem against San Jose State). As inexcusable as it is to be the #97 team in the country, at least the last two games have been among our best of the season. [Our games this year have been befitting the #74, #65, #34, #115, #169, #144, #155, #118, #201, #27, and #54 teams in the nation.] With a product this bad one always has to look for signs of rot and demoralization so it is perhaps salutary that we have a chance to end the season on three relatively high notes. Nonetheless, it stings to miss the opportunity to change the narrative away from what seems like an increasingly hopeless program the longer this miserable string of three win seasons goes on.

2. A Big Game loss blowing an 11 point fourth quarter lead (14 points with a minute left in the third) will swamp any impulse to look at silver linings. They were there though. On the scoreboard, we scored 2.1 points per non-garbage drive, making the #39 points per drive defense look like the #58 point per drive defense and putting more points on the board than six Cal opponents, and we also gave up fewer points than six Cal opponents. The defense nearly beat out the Wake Forest game for the best yards per per play performance of the year (and Cal has a better offense than Wake), the fourth best a defense has done against Cal in both yards per play and scoring. We partied in the backfield 11 times, tied with last year's UCLA game for the most we've had in more than a decade (that is, since actual #PartyInTheBackfield days). We didn't commit a turnover (though I wouldn't crow too much about that as Daniels seemed pretty ball insecure). There were good things in this game. Of course, there were bad things too, in particular Weselman's catastrophic botched hold, the passing game after the first quarter, giving up a 50 yard QB run (and even more yardage due to a penalty), and giving up three 30 yard passes (two in the fourth quarter). But we looked like a mediocre team that came up a play short (pick any of those five I just mentioned or add a well-timed one for the passing game), which is a far cry from the terrible team we have been the vast majority of the time this season.

3. Cal has a great yards per play defense, #21 in the nation, and true to form the three stingiest defenses we faced in 2024 - Notre Dame, SMU, and Cal - were the three against which we had the most trouble getting yards per play. While it is understandable we would struggle to move the ball against Cal, our offensive struggles went beyond that, with only Oregon State struggling more than we did to gain yards. That means that FCS UC Davis and some of the worst offenses in FBS in Florida State, San Diego State, and Wake Forest all had more yards per play than we did. I am not going to sugarcoat that except to say we do get credit for scoring at a respectable clip, even with the (decisive two times over) six points left off the board due to the times we lined up for a field goal and got nothing. Our passing numbers were very ugly - and the touchdown was a trick play QB1 wasn't even on the field for - but Cal has one of the best pass defenses we play and we did marginally better in the air than we had against other tough pass defenses (Notre Dame, Clemson, TCU, SMU). We also had a better passer rating than five Cal opponents, though only better than two (including UC Davis) in yards per attempt. The passing performance was not good but some consideration needs to be given to opponent. Even more consideration needs to be given to opponent in terms of the run game as Cal has a great rushing defense - 14th in the nation - so we can be largely forgiven for the limited running efficacy. We were pretty middle of the road in terms of how teams run against Cal. I will take middle of the road as a positive since we have mostly been bad at rushing in the Taylor era. In short, our offense wasn't good but it was better than it usually is.

4. As I noted above, the defense did the fourth best a defense has done against Cal in both scoring and yards. On a points per drive basis it was a bit less impressive - 2.67 points per non-garbage drive, making the #71 points per drive offense look like the #31 points per drive offense - but by and large this was a defensive performance I will take. Cal has a very solid passing attack and we held them under our season average in passer rating allowed and yards per attempt allowed. Pass defense still ended up being a vulnerability for us (we did better than only 2-3 other teams in defending Cal's passing game) because good by our standards is still bad - on the season we are 127th in defensive passer rating and 126th in yards per attempt allowed. Still, we should acknowledge when we play better than our norm. In the run game, Syracuse is the only FBS team our run defense has bottled up more. Obviously all the partying in the backfield had a big hand in that. We held Cal under their season average, which was already quite pitiful. [This is the only time our run defense has done that in the last five games after starting the year with six consecutive such games. We are now 78th in yards per carry allowed, a relative strength of the team compared to being 107th in yards per carry, 113th in passer rating, and 127th in defensive passer rating. As I noted last week, though, there is nothing we are good at.] The big plays Nicholson and Wright gave up played a role in the loss but overall I don't think this was such a bad defensive performance.

RE: Sunday morning thoughts - Big Game - msqueri - 11-24-2024

5. Daniels was #87 of 125 in Total QBR this week, his worst game since September and a median type of performance for his 2024 season. On the year he is now the #88 QB in the nation after being #85 last year. Water is finding its level. I am sure he would be better with a better offensive line but it's not clear that is a reasonable expectation any time in his Stanford career to come and I think we have seen enough - turning in highly consistent 2023 and 2024 seasons at a sub-par level of play for a Power Four QB - to basically know what we have here. It very well may be the best we can do but there should be a genuine competition heading into next year. If we were ruthless and really in it to win we would look very hard at a transfer QB. If we stick with Daniels, I think he could improve to become mediocre next year but I doubt there's more in him than that, and there's no guarantee he improves at all (as he didn't really compared to last season). It will be interesting to see if Brown gets in next week now that his redshirt has officially been preserved. I don't have strong views on whether that should happen and suspect Taylor will do what I would do, which is start Daniels and keep him in if hot and otherwise play it by ear.

6. Shout out to Ford for passing 300 yards rushing on the season. He has the most rushing yards a Stanford freshman has had since Wilkerson in 2010. It will be fun to see where Ford and Davis rank on the all-time list after next week. Neither will come within half of Nelson but both will rank near and ahead of some great backs. Also shout out to Mosley, Ayomanor, and Lamson for putting in a lot of work yesterday to move the chains, the latter breaking our record for QB rushing touchdowns in a season (though it was the second effort when stuffed on fourth down that I found his best effort). [Moving the chains (first down) leader board: Mosley (4), Ayomanor (4), Lamson (4), Ford (2), Daniels (2), Roush] I don't think Roush is a world-beater but I am becoming more confident next year will finally be the year he is a good player, which will also coincide with another year of development for our other tight ends, notably Blackburn but also getting Holt back from injury. On the offensive line, I have heard much be made of the offense doing worse after House went out. I think this is classic correlation is not causation. The offense was already starting to scuffle before that and, in any case, House has not been good this season, including yesterday. PFF actually thought McLaughlin in injury relief was our best OL yesterday, followed by Maikkula and Pale with meh performances, Baklenko and Leyrer playing even worse, and House bringing up the caboose. Really hard to see how this offense figures things out without being saved by transfers at OL.
7. Have a day, Zach Buckey! Play four years, get a half of a sack. Play in potentially your last Big Game, get three sacks in that game alone. We needed somebody to step up with Franklin serving the half game suspension and Buckey sure did, contributing those three sacks as well as another tackle for loss, a pass breakup, and a crunch time tackle for a four yard gain on a 2nd and 15 pass. Really big contributions. Always fun when somebody plays out of their skull and has a game they'll always remember, even if it was a loss. Sinclair also had an inspired effort coming back from injury and playing in his last Big Game, especially his two play sequence forcing a turnover on downs but also making other plays too. Buckey and Sinclair were joined by Edwards, Wright, Rowell, Bernadel, Tafiti, and Sumlin in making multiple plays that showed up positively in the box score. Between Buckey, Rowell, and individual big plays by Franklin and Phillips, it felt like the line did a lot more than usual. The enemy gets a vote and Cal having a terrible offensive line is a big part of that story, but it's good that we could capitalize. Wright had the kind of game we've seen often from him and before him Kyu Blu Kelly in recent years - plays that help us a lot but also getting burned deep in ways that really sting. This was a very encouraging game for Sumlin and if it's at all representative of his ability that is a big deal for us heading into next year. Other freshmen DBs struggled and it generally looks like a part of the roster that needs help via transfers if high school recruiting is going to continue to not get the job done.

8. Special teams did some nice things but the blaring headling is Weselman's screwup. That botched hold likely cost us the game. It felt really big in the moment, even with the significant lead and all the time remaining. Just felt like the fulcrum of the game and an unforced error that would come back to haunt us. It did. Kenney missed a 53 yarder, so that's two times when the field goal unit didn't give us points. Flintoft had net punts of 42 to the 18 (ok), 44 to the 42 (out-kicked coverage a bit but good result), 43 to the 29 (ditto), and 43 to the 2 (spectacular). That's probably one of Flintoft's nicer games. Kick coverage had a lot of guys make tackles that helped but the star was true freshman Mattingly stoning returners at the 21 and the 18, the latter of which forced a fumble. [By the way, those who gripe about officiating never acknowledge the breaks that go our way and that one being ruled a fumble seems like one of those.] Bachmeier made a major contribution with his 35 yard punt return, now 17th in the nation in punt return average, our best since Irwin in 2018. It's a shame Weselman's hold marred the special teams game, which was otherwise quite helpful.

9. Game balls: Mosley, Buckey, Mattingly, Kolodziej

10. One more game left in a disappointing season. To me it still feels like we're playing for something as breaking the string of three win seasons would be an important step in giving the coaches at least something to sell internally and externally. This rebuild faces a lot of headwinds and it doesn't seem like the coaching staff's chops, charisma, or level of university support are going to provide significant boosts. We need to grind this out by slowly showing progress until we find ourselves in another zip code. Beating San Jose State to at least get to four wins is something tangible to support the argument of incremental progress. Otherwise we're just asking everybody - players, recruits, fans, donors - to take it on faith. We can beat San Jose State. Our first three games of the season and, more importantly, our last two have been at a level that would be expected to beat San Jose State. Let's turn in one of those performances and go into the off-season able to say with a straight face that we're slowly building something.

RE: Sunday morning thoughts - Big Game - ADPinWDC - 11-24-2024

Thanks much for the in-depth work, msqueri 

Why are we still stuck in Purgatory at 3-9?

Offensive Line is not competitive. From 2009-2017, we were.  
Harbaugh started there, and got Luck in 2008.
Defensive secondary has deteriorated. We have not kept pace.
We seem to get decent (but not 5-star) skill position players.

We are back now to #126 in USA on Average Game Scoring Margin at -17.6 average per game.
https://www.teamrankings.com/college-football/stat/average-scoring-margin

Last year we finished #130, 
Sure -- it's an imperfect stat (multiple factors combined), but highly correlated with our success, or not.

In 2015 (McCaffrey, Rose Bowl), Stanford was #8 on that Stat list at +15 points per game,
finishing #3 in country after thrashing IOWA in Rose Bowl.  That was the peak year. 
McCaffrey, Love and Hogan came well AFTER Harbaugh.  Ditto with JJArcegaW and Ty Montgomery.
2009 was the big jump up to 21st in USA to +9 points margin per game, from barely negative in 2008. 
Vic Fangio [Now DefCo at NFL Eagles] worked his magic in 2010 on the 3-4 Defense. 
One year; left with Harbaugh to Niners.

RE: Sunday morning thoughts - Big Game - gailtate - 11-24-2024

"On the year he is now the #88 QB in the nation after being #85 last year. Water is finding its level."
I have seen more than enough. To paraphrase an unsuccessful  candidate for president, time to turn the page.

RE: Sunday morning thoughts - Big Game - old spanish trail - 11-25-2024

Thanks, Square. Always a fun read even if the subject matter often doesn't match your skill.

RE: Sunday morning thoughts - Big Game - fullmetal - 11-25-2024

The job is Brown's for the taking.  Arguably, it was there for the taking this last summer and fall camp if Brown would have stepped up, but that would have been a big ask.  I wonder if Tiger can front load some of the QB learning curve to Bear...we need some real competition that forces everyone to step up their game.

RE: Sunday morning thoughts - Big Game - needle - 11-26-2024

(11-24-2024, 05:38 PM)gailtate Wrote:  "On the year he is now the #88 QB in the nation after being #85 last year. Water is finding its level."
I have seen more than enough. To paraphrase an unsuccessful  candidate for president, time to turn the page.

I haven't seen enough yet. If Ashton can go another game without throwing a pick and has a better day passing than against Kal, I think he should *probably* be the starter heading into 2025. (I say probably based on what I've seen so far of Brown.)

The issue is the offensive line. I was heartened to hear TT in the post-game Kal presser lay blame on the O-line without equivocating. 

And, while it matters not what I think, it appears that TT went out of his way to absolve Daniels for the poor passing in the second half. Asked about Brown in the presser this week, he said he'd be available if the team needs him. My translation: he ain't playing unless Daniels gets hurt. We'll see.