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Sunday afternoon thoughts - Wake Forest - msqueri - 10-04-2026

1. How many times can a fan base ask if this is rock bottom before the lights go off in a program? Based on the number of diehards I've heard from/about who didn't bother to watch the second half, this is a worthy contender for rock bottom. While there is competition for the honor, this one has a claim to the throne: worst Stanford loss by margin since 1954, a school record 13 game road losing streak, and a 4.81 yard per play margin in Wake Forest's favor the worst we've been dominated on a per play basis in three years/36 games going back to 2023 Oregon. On the other hand, this is depressingly just an exaggerated version of an ineptitude that has been characteristic of the team. We are now Sagarin #109 and SP+ #114, meaning computers think this a strong contender for the worst team in Stanford history. That is not hyperbole. Our scoreboard margins so far have been befitting #112, #156, #142, #66, and #258, which means that Pritchard's squad has looked like the worst Stanford team ever four of the five times he's taken them out of the tunnel. [Under Reich we didn't play like a top 100 team five teams. Under Taylor it happened six times in 2024 and seven times in 2023. It happened 5-7 times in Shaw's worst years.] Before the year we wanted a nationally notable amount of seniority and returning production to translate to improvement on our best team of the beleaguered era. Through five games, we not only don't look improved, we look as bad as ever.

2. Conversations I've seen and had the last 24 hours try to parse out how much of this is talent vs. coaching vs. institutional constraints vs. program rot. With the stats I just laid out and what our eyeballs have shown throughout the year and going back several years, I don't know how one can confidently pick one thing out. It's catastrophic, comprehensive, system failure. The talent level has receded below Power Four level. It plays worse than the inherent talent level because the players aren't football-first glass eaters (at least not in sufficient numbers) and cultural rot has long ago wiped out winning mentalities and expectations. Frankly, our players are too smart to believe in themselves. How could this program believe in itself at this point? The coaching staff is learning on the job and has shown no reason to believe in it in the most important respects - the head coach's ability to organize and motivate a program and coordinators' ability to extract more from talent than the sum of the parts. The front office timidly fails to provide the needed transfer talent via roster turnover plainly required in this era, despite evidence that our best players each year are disproportionately transfers, whether because of a misguided calculation in building via our indigenous Stanford Men talent or a feckless nod to institutional constraints. And our misfit alignment in the ACC produces a massive headwind for most of the games on our schedule. We didn't lose this game because of travel and body clock and we didn't get blown out because of travel and body clock, but those are brobdingnagian factors we shouldn't dismiss. In our ACC era, we are 1-11 in significant travel road games straight up, 2-10 against the spread (historically across a long sweep of Stanford history we are just about exactly 50-50 against the spread as Vegas is very good at setting these lines), and a whopping negative 9.6 points per game against the spread. The last six early body clock games are 0-6, 1-5 ATS, and median negative 19.5 versus the spread (it's only negative 2.2 points in 4pm Pacific or later starts). Going back to 1996, we 1-13 in true road games with kickoffs before noon Pacific. I don't want to harp too much on travel when it's everything that's broken, but include it on the list.

3. A 54 point loss to a not even ranked team feels like a special kind of low. I want us to hold in our head, however, that it's not special....because we get our asses whooped so routinely. This is the third time in the last six games we have had a 5+ point per drive difference from the opponent, which is to say an opponent scoring at will while we are impotent. It's happened in two of Pritchard's four career ACC games, with the third one being over a still-an-***-whooping 2.5 points per drive margin. Putting aside bus travel across the Bay to Berkeley, we have lost by 24+ in seven of our nine ACC road games all-time (seven of the last eight since the first ever against Syracuse was really the only good game we've ever played on the road outside the Bay Area in this conference). [Plus we lost by 24+ on the road against both Notre Dame and BYU).] That said, the offensive ineptitude yesterday was pretty special. We scored 0.375 points per non-garbage drive, joining last year's BYU game as just about as bad as an offense can do (we did once score zero non-garbage points, the 24-7 loss to Kansas State in 2021), and gained 2.94 yards per play, our fourth worst of the decade. Wake last had a game this stifling in conference play in 2006. I put this as a potential Mount Rushmore of all-time bad Stanford offensive games since I don't think Wake's D is great shakes. Looking at our four worst yards per play games of the era, at least 2024 SMU was Defensive FEI #14, 2025 BYU was #22 by that metric, and 2025 Miami was #4, but coming into yesterday Wake's defense was only #37 (even after yesterday SP+ has them #46). We made a maybe good Wake defense look like the 1985 Bears/2000 Ravens. Our defense was terrible but not that bad, giving up 5.375 or 5.56 points per non-garbage drive, depending on whether you count the Warren interception or the third quarter 4th and 20 punt as the end of the game. The best thing you can say about that is it's slightly less pick the number for the other team than the most recent Miami and Notre Dame games. We gave up 7.75 yards per play, our 11th worst this decade. At least we beat out Akron and three 2025 Wake opponents in this respect. Pitiful but not historic like the offensive crap.

4. Our passing game and run game were equal opportunity crap. If we thought we could rely on relatively better pieces in the pass game, it sure didn't work out. The Miami and Duke games weren't good either but this takes the cake for our worst passing game of the season in all five major dimensions (passer rating, yards, yards per attempt, touchdowns, interceptions), the worst since last year's Miami game. That is inexcusable considering that, even after dog walking us, Wake Forest ranks dead last on our schedule to date in pass efficiency defense. We did worse than all their opponents, even Akron. Pathetic does not begin to describe our passing game yesterday. We're pretty used to a useless run game, now having been held under 3.4 yards per carry in 13 of the 17 2025-2026 games, but this was our worst run game statistically since North Carolina last year. Wake has a good run defense but not that good: we did half a yard per carry worse than Louisville and significantly worse than the other teams. On the other side of the ball, run defense has also become accustomed to failure, now three games in a row giving up 5+ yards per carry. We were the only team other than Akron that Wake could do that to. Wake has a middling run game so we should not be making them look like Miami or Duke, but we shouldn't have made Georgia Tech look like that either yet we did. The run defense is totally lost right now. Pass defense was the least bad of our phases, in between how we did against Duke/Georgia Tech and how we did against Miami, which is disappointing because Wake seems more like a good passing attack than a great one. Wake also torched Akron and Louisville and was respectable against Purdue and Miami, but on the evidence of the season it seems like everybody they've faced other than Miami struggles in pass defense, which is why I think this is at best a good passing attack. Still, our other phases did worse.

RE: Sunday afternoon thoughts - Wake Forest - msqueri - 10-04-2026

5. I thought based on eye test that Warren was quite bad, inaccurate throughout and should have had two interceptions against the minimal production that kept us out of the red zone all game. Total QBR was less harsh, pegging him at 78th of 113 QBs this week. In their algorithm, his running and penalties (lack thereof) were his saving grace. PFF was much harsher, but I trust Total QBR more. It was not a strong game for Warren but he's low on our list of problems. He's now 69th on the season in Total QBR. High on our list of problems are guards and tight ends, garbage on the year and garbage yesterday. I am not surprised the tight ends are as weak as they've ever been in Stanford history. I am surprised Pale is this horrible. He has now been back three games and is simply too atrocious to play, the worst graded regular on our roster (Black and Howard with worse grades in less significant action). Williams and House are clearly among our five best linemen. Pale to the bench, please. The best lineman is Prongos. Nice to have him back, hopefully that makes a big difference in the winnable games. Among skill position players, it remains morbidly interesting that Irvin is arguably better this year than Ford. Nico Brown clearly rates with Warren and Prongos (and High, but not yesterday) as guys who help this offense. [Moving the chains (first down) leaderboard: Brown (3), Irvin (2), Ford (2), Joseph (also drew a pass interference), Warren, Onovughe, Thorpe, Altahir]

6. The defense gets the excuse of playing without Nicholson, Rose, and Galvan. That explains a lot. Far from all of it. But those are significant holes and even with them the defense wasn't as bad as the offense in this game. That is damning with faint praise, however, in assessing Kris Richard's miserable first five games. Those three plus BMO and Green unquestionably (and Tafiti an arguable addition to the case) formed an objectively good core for a defense. SP+ is the most evidence-based preseason algorithm on such things and it figured our defense for #57. Flash forward to five games of actual results and we are #115, worse even than the offense on the year. Richard has been an absolute joke. Five games in it's the definition of insanity that we keep playing a man heavy, stunt/blitz low defense acting like our personnel has a chance. I never would have thought that with two years of Bobby April, a year of Andy Thompson, and now Kris Richard that it would be the Thompson meat in the sandwich that stands out as the only competence in a desert of defensive dereliction. But that's what we've seen. While the defense has been unspeakable and yesterday reinforced the overwhelming impression of indefensible tackling and effort, it should be said that the best players on the defense played fine yesterday. BMO, Green, and Kaminski graded well. We just had too many weak links to name (most egregiously Mattingly, Bryant, and Howard, and Cooper continues to never and I mean never make plays). Green got trucked on a touchdown or two but he showed up seven times positively contributing to success rate, and that includes three in garbage time, so that's an erstwhile star struggling to play with passion this season who gave us good sustained effort yesterday. He wasn't the problem. Neither was Kaminski (not to say he set the edge well in defending Gio Lopez). BMO never is the problem. Tafiti made a few plays but I so wish there was more there. Some signs of life from Harmon and Jackson may be something to build on.

7. I don't view our special teams as special but they continue to seem incidental in the big picture of a dumpster fire program. Kenney missed a 46 yard field goal after the gift of the muff and made a 43 yarder. At this point in our struggles I take a 40+ yard make as a confidence building (and try not to think about all the 50+ yarders I see other teams make when I'm watching the rest of college football). Flintoft had net punts of 40 to the 33 resulting in a muff giving us the ball (phenomenal result but punt was average), 41 to the 35 (ok), 43 to the 48 (good), 43 to the 50 (good), 40 to the 18 (ok), and 45 to the 25 (good). With Stanford being early pioneers in scholarships to specialists, specialists not making a lot of money anywhere, and our guys having been relatively big recruits, it continues to feel like we're not getting differentiation here. Warford left with an injury, something to watch. Chris Davis Jr., who I hate to watch miscalculate returns vis-a-vis fair catch yardage (gave up 3 yards of position on a 22 yard return and 7 yards on a 15 yard return), did have a big 42 yard return wiped out by a Jernegan hold. Thorpe cost the team 20 yards of field position when the game was still in doubt by not fielding a punt. Edwards (who has been benched into oblivion on defense) recovered the muff, enabled by Tre Williams blocking the Demon Deacon into it. Williams and Tate teamed up for a special teams tackle.

8. Game balls: Niki Prongos, Jay Green, Tre Williams, Kodi Whitfield/Tank Williams (not sure I've ever given a co-game ball but, truly, how are we supposed to distinguish between them?)

9. It sucks when a team reaches one of these rock bottom points and has a no-hoper game upcoming. There's really no point. Luck and Pritchard already have existential wherewithall and morale questions suffocating the team. Now we face an opponent we'd do well to lose to by less than 40. That sucks. The real question is what kind of fight, resolve, finish, ruthless and relentless defense, blah blah blah we show against Elon and NC State. One has to just hope that another 13 days, at least, of feeling down in the dumps serves as impetus for the conversations that need to happen among Levin, Martinez, Donahoe, Luck, and anybody else who matters. This will fail forever until the instituton accepts that there is no way out of this other than recognizing it's complete system failure that requires a fundamental rethink - resources, admissions exceptions, mass turnover led by transfers, accountability, rejection of glib and smug confidence in our culture. We do not have a foundation for the rebuild. We are not improving. Admitting you're powerless is the first step to recovery.

RE: Sunday afternoon thoughts - Wake Forest - Row80Critic - 10-04-2026

(10-04-2026, 02:29 PM)msqueri Wrote:  This will fail forever until the instituton accepts that there is no way out of this other than recognizing it's complete system failure that requires a fundamental rethink - resources, admissions exceptions, mass turnover led by transfers, accountability, rejection of glib and smug confidence in our culture. We do not have a foundation for the rebuild. We are not improving. Admitting you're powerless is the first step to recovery.

Amen!

RE: Sunday afternoon thoughts - Wake Forest - ADPinWDC - 10-04-2026

Cannot argue with the trenchant analysis. 
Dire straits.  
Too many naive fans are screaming on social media to fold back into Pac12, which would be driving off a cliff and endanger MORE sports at Stanford! 
[Dramatic loss of revenue; Recruiting would plummet]


Well... just to stir the pot, LA Chargers are 0-4 now.  They might dump Harbaugh before the season is over. 
He might consider a jump back to college, as Bill Walsh did.  It's a stretch, sure. Low expectations, a plus.
He certainly knows Andrew Luck...

Desperate times; Desperate measures.  
-- worst loss since the Korean War. That is special.
Harbaugh might need a job, and it can only be as Head Coach.  He has a Natl Championship.
Pritchard, not.
After getting creamed in South Bend, then we look headed toward ... 3-9.

RE: Sunday afternoon thoughts - Wake Forest - drnoodleman - 10-04-2026

(10-04-2026, 02:29 PM)msqueri Wrote:  5. I thought based on eye test that Warren was quite bad, inaccurate throughout and should have had two interceptions against the minimal production that kept us out of the red zone all game. Total QBR was less harsh, pegging him at 78th of 113 QBs this week. In their algorithm, his running and penalties (lack thereof) were his saving grace. PFF was much harsher, but I trust Total QBR more. It was not a strong game for Warren but he's low on our list of problems. He's now 69th on the season in Total QBR. High on our list of problems are guards and tight ends, garbage on the year and garbage yesterday. I am not surprised the tight ends are as weak as they've ever been in Stanford history. I am surprised Pale is this horrible. He has now been back three games and is simply too atrocious to play, the worst graded regular on our roster (Black and Howard with worse grades in less significant action). Williams and House are clearly among our five best linemen. Pale to the bench, please. The best lineman is Prongos. Nice to have him back, hopefully that makes a big difference in the winnable games. Among skill position players, it remains morbidly interesting that Irvin is arguably better this year than Ford. Nico Brown clearly rates with Warren and Prongos (and High, but not yesterday) as guys who help this offense. [Moving the chains (first down) leaderboard: Brown (3), Irvin (2), Ford (2), Joseph (also drew a pass interference), Warren, Onovughe, Thorpe, Altahir]

6. The defense gets the excuse of playing without Nicholson, Rose, and Galvan. That explains a lot. Far from all of it. But those are significant holes and even with them the defense wasn't as bad as the offense in this game. That is damning with faint praise, however, in assessing Kris Richard's miserable first five games. Those three plus BMO and Green unquestionably (and Tafiti an arguable addition to the case) formed an objectively good core for a defense. SP+ is the most evidence-based preseason algorithm on such things and it figured our defense for #57. Flash forward to five games of actual results and we are #115, worse even than the offense on the year. Richard has been an absolute joke. Five games in it's the definition of insanity that we keep playing a man heavy, stunt/blitz low defense acting like our personnel has a chance. I never would have thought that with two years of Bobby April, a year of Andy Thompson, and now Kris Richard that it would be the Thompson meat in the sandwich that stands out as the only competence in a desert of defensive dereliction. But that's what we've seen. While the defense has been unspeakable and yesterday reinforced the overwhelming impression of indefensible tackling and effort, it should be said that the best players on the defense played fine yesterday. BMO, Green, and Kaminski graded well. We just had too many weak links to name (most egregiously Mattingly, Bryant, and Howard, and Cooper continues to never and I mean never make plays). Green got trucked on a touchdown or two but he showed up seven times positively contributing to success rate, and that includes three in garbage time, so that's an erstwhile star struggling to play with passion this season who gave us good sustained effort yesterday. He wasn't the problem. Neither was Kaminski (not to say he set the edge well in defending Gio Lopez). BMO never is the problem. Tafiti made a few plays but I so wish there was more there. Some signs of life from Harmon and Jackson may be something to build on.

7. I don't view our special teams as special but they continue to seem incidental in the big picture of a dumpster fire program. Kenney missed a 46 yard field goal after the gift of the muff and made a 43 yarder. At this point in our struggles I take a 40+ yard make as a confidence building (and try not to think about all the 50+ yarders I see other teams make when I'm watching the rest of college football). Flintoft had net punts of 40 to the 33 resulting in a muff giving us the ball (phenomenal result but punt was average), 41 to the 35 (ok), 43 to the 48 (good), 43 to the 50 (good), 40 to the 18 (ok), and 45 to the 25 (good). With Stanford being early pioneers in scholarships to specialists, specialists not making a lot of money anywhere, and our guys having been relatively big recruits, it continues to feel like we're not getting differentiation here. Warford left with an injury, something to watch. Chris Davis Jr., who I hate to watch miscalculate returns vis-a-vis fair catch yardage (gave up 3 yards of position on a 22 yard return and 7 yards on a 15 yard return), did have a big 42 yard return wiped out by a Jernegan hold. Thorpe cost the team 20 yards of field position when the game was still in doubt by not fielding a punt. Edwards (who has been benched into oblivion on defense) recovered the muff, enabled by Tre Williams blocking the Demon Deacon into it. Williams and Tate teamed up for a special teams tackle.

8. Game balls: Niki Prongos, Jay Green, Tre Williams, Kodi Whitfield/Tank Williams (not sure I've ever given a co-game ball but, truly, how are we supposed to distinguish between them?)

9. It sucks when a team reaches one of these rock bottom points and has a no-hoper game upcoming. There's really no point. Luck and Pritchard already have existential wherewithall and morale questions suffocating the team. Now we face an opponent we'd do well to lose to by less than 40. That sucks. The real question is what kind of fight, resolve, finish, ruthless and relentless defense, blah blah blah we show against Elon and NC State. One has to just hope that another 13 days, at least, of feeling down in the dumps serves as impetus for the conversations that need to happen among Levin, Martinez, Donahoe, Luck, and anybody else who matters. This will fail forever until the instituton accepts that there is no way out of this other than recognizing it's complete system failure that requires a fundamental rethink - resources, admissions exceptions, mass turnover led by transfers, accountability, rejection of glib and smug confidence in our culture. We do not have a foundation for the rebuild. We are not improving. Admitting you're powerless is the first step to recovery.

Denial is the first step in recovery :)

RE: Sunday afternoon thoughts - Wake Forest - Goose - 10-04-2026

(10-04-2026, 05:06 PM)ADPinWDC Wrote:  Well... just to stir the pot, LA Chargers are 0-4 now.  They might dump Harbaugh before the season is over. 
He might consider a jump back to college,
There is a little matter of a 10 year show cause letter issued by the NCAA. This 10 year period starts in 2028 when the previous 4 year show cause letter expires. Jim Harbaugh isn't coming back to college football, period.

RE: Sunday afternoon thoughts - Wake Forest - ADPinWDC - 10-04-2026

(10-04-2026, 05:58 PM)Goose Wrote:  
(10-04-2026, 05:06 PM)ADPinWDC Wrote:  Well... just to stir the pot, LA Chargers are 0-4 now.  They might dump Harbaugh before the season is over. 
He might consider a jump back to college,
There is a little matter of a 10 year show cause letter issued by the NCAA. This 10 year period starts in 2028 when the previous 4 year show cause letter expires. Jim Harbaugh isn't coming back to college football, period.

RIGHT !!  Cancel that.  Forgot

RE: Sunday afternoon thoughts - Wake Forest - rogpodge - 10-05-2026

https://x.com/statsowar/status/2107106085488545912

I'm not going to make excuses, but it looks like everything that could go wrong went wrong on Saturday. Stanford played below such luminaries as Middle Tennessee State, Charlotte, UTEP, and Old Dominion in terms of success rate delta. An insane how nothing went right.

Anyhow, onward.