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Is scouting really that hard? - OutsiderFan - 04-25-2012

In 2009 I vividly remember Andrew Luck, David DeCastro, Jonathan Martin, and Coby Fleener standing out in various games I saw Stanford play.  Among the memories:  DeCastro destroying fools against UCLA; Jonathan Martin providing superlative pass protection in virtually every game as a RS Frosh; Watching Luck play and thinking "this is the best QB prospect I've seen since Elway"; and the 25 yard TD pass Coby Fleener caught against USC had me thinking "watch out for this kid in the future!"

Now, here it is, 2012 NFL Draft eve, and all of these guys are projected as first round picks.  What is particularly funny is that Fleener, who wasn't even a Mackey Award finalist (one of the greatest travesties in the history of awards), wasn't considered a first rounder two months ago, and now I just saw a mock draft with him going as high as #13 to Arizona!

So here you have all the video, measurements, interviews, discussion, comparisons, pulling and prodding to assess these guys, and all it does is confirm what was clear (to this observer at least) three seasons ago, that these guys were elite football players in the making. 

Which Frosh or Sophs performed to that Luck, DeCastro, Martin, Fleener level in 2011?  You guys see any potential other first rounders on the Stanford roster who have played already?  I'm guessing Shayne Skov pre-injury, but he was  Junior in 2011.  He definitely made his mark as an elite player and NFL first round caliber talent in 2010.  Anybody in 2011?






Re: Is scouting really that hard? - washingtonismoney - 04-25-2012

Right now it looks like the freshman/sophomore class is defined more by depth than superstars. If I had to guess one player from those classes (eligibility-wise), it'd be David Yankey, who performed at a very high level for a redshirt freshman guard. But Zach Ertz, Levine Toilolo, Trent Murphy, Ben Gardner, Ty Montgomery, Cameron Fleming...all of them, I imagine, will get drafted, possibly as high as the second round.

Judging by the way coaches talked about them, James Vaughters and Wayne Lyons have first-round potential but we didn't get to see it in 2011, for varying reasons. Perhaps we'll see it in 2012--along with guys like Kevin Anderson and Kelsey Young. From an NFL perspective, these are the guys I'd keep an eye on.

Re: Is scouting really that hard? - yvonne - 04-25-2012

Sometimes, it's easy to spot a really special player. I remember the first time I saw Troy Taylor in practice. I was really excited. Those were the very early days of the web, so it was very easy to have a secret. Kelsey Young seemed to really stand out like that in practice.

I also remember sitting in a horrible game watching us lose to Navy (yes, the first of the quick kick games), and hearing freshman Toby Gerhart's name being called somewhat repeatedly after he had gained than four yards a clip. I commented to my friend that he was going to be good. We didn't get to see many young running backs because we're so stacked there. People are expecting Barry Sanders to be special, but I wonder how much of that is simply bloodlines.

I can tell when an OL plays well as a unit, but I can't judge individual play very well. I'd guess that David Yankey will probably develop into a special player.

I seem to hear Vaughters' name a lot, so he might be special.

Re: Is scouting really that hard? - fullmetal - 04-25-2012

On the other end of the spectrum, I expect Delano Howell and Michael Thomas to do well in the NFL given their playmaking ability in college, but the scouts are not very high on either of them.  In fact, Johnathan Bademosi was graded above Michael Thomas.

http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/football/nfl/draft-2012/breakdowns/by_position/S.html

Re: Is scouting really that hard? - Class_of_75 - 04-25-2012

Yvonne, you must mean someone other than Troy Taylor, ex-QB for the Bears, don't you?

Re: Is scouting really that hard? - washingtonismoney - 04-25-2012

I remember Toby Gerhart against Navy really well. I remember texting a friend and telling him Toby was the next Jerome Bettis.

Re: Is scouting really that hard? - yvonne - 04-25-2012

You're right. Troy Walters.

BTW, did he get retained when the Aggies made the coaching change?

Re: Is scouting really that hard? - fullmetal - 04-25-2012

Walters didn't stay.

Re: Is scouting really that hard? - FarmBoy - 04-25-2012

Interestingly, ESPN's draft guru, Todd McShay, only has one other Stanford player drafted after the big-four. He has Chris Owusu being taken in the 7th round by the Packers:

http://insider.espn.go.com/nfl/draft2012/story/_/id/7852469/2012-nfl-draft-complete-seven-round-mock-draft

Re: Is scouting really that hard? - needle - 04-25-2012

I think Henry Anderson and AJ Tarpley will be big-time, all-conference type players.

Re: Is scouting really that hard? - StannyBoy - 04-25-2012

(04-25-2012, 02:30 PM)needle link Wrote:I think Henry Anderson and AJ Tarpley will be big-time, all-conference type players.

I really like Henry Anderson and think he's definitely starting opposite Ben Gardner this year. As for Tarpley, I'm not sure he's any better than Lancaster and after the latest spring report it sounds like Hemschoot has passed up both Tarpley and Lancaster. But I guess anything could happen between now and the first game.

Re: Is scouting really that hard? - needle - 04-25-2012

Wilner and Fowkes both wrote that Tarpley and Hemschoot started the spring game, fwiw.

Re: Is scouting really that hard? - OutsiderFan - 04-25-2012

A.J. Tarpley was the guy that really stood out to me for Stanford as a RS Frosh in 2011.  Fleming and Yankey were also both impressive.
Ty Montgomery is another one that looks promising, but you have to be a physical freak to be an elite WR prospect. 

Tarpley was more solid than explosive as a RS Frosh.  He doesn't have that elite burst like Skov, but if he improves as much as he was a surprise performer in 2011, he might have NFL potential.

Re: Is scouting really that hard? - CowboyIndian - 04-25-2012

Tarpley is on my list....of guys who will never have to buy a drink in my presence. He earned that by recovering a U$C  fumble in the end zone to beat those $wine. Terrence Stephens, Tavita Pritchard, Richard Sherman and Mark Bradford are in that group as well.

Re: Is scouting really that hard? - washingtonismoney - 04-25-2012

(04-25-2012, 02:45 PM)young_money link Wrote:I really like Henry Anderson and think he's definitely starting opposite Ben Gardner this year. As for Tarpley, I'm not sure he's any better than Lancaster and after the latest spring report it sounds like Hemschoot has passed up both Tarpley and Lancaster. But I guess anything could happen between now and the first game.

The thing you have to take into account when evaluating the three players is age and eligibility:

Tarpley and Hemschoot are the earliest, eligibility-wise. And Hemschoot skipped two grades--he's one of the youngest on the team. So Lancaster should look better than the two of them. But Hemschoot and Tarpley are probably on better parts of their learning/growth curves. The other thing to take into account is pass coverage. I didn't realize it at the time, but from time to time I've rewatched old Stanford games...Lancaster was not very good in pass coverage. Had three pass interference penalties. Tarpley had more passes broken up, an important interception, and (IIRC) never got penalized in pass coverage.

Hamschoot is the unknown factor here because of his age, but from his limited action last year, he is highly explosive. So I'm not necessarily surprised to see the Hemschoot/Tarpley combo in the spring game, but I presume the competition will be intense in the fall with Skov, Vaughters, Hemschoot, Tarpley and Lancaster all pressing their claim. Maybe even Blake Martinez in there too.