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Truly surprised (and bothered) - OutsiderFan - 04-27-2012

It was kind of expected that Jonathan Martin would slip into the 2nd round, but I am quite surprised and a bit bothered by the fact Coby Fleener was not a first round pick.

The reason I am bothered is because this is just another show of disrespect/lack of appreciation for what the guy can do.  The Mackey Award finalist snub was bad, but IMO, not being a first round pick is worse.  Now, obviously he's going to have a chance to prove himself as a player in the NFL, but still, not being a first round pick definitely costs someone money, and Fleener deserved more for what he has done and is all about.  Now to the reason I am bothered...

It was widely talked about last NFL season how valuable TEs who can stretch the field are.  Antonio Gates, Jimmy Graham, Vernon Davis, Aaron Herandez and Rob Gronkowski, were the talk of the NFL world.  The fact is most teams don't have these kind of guys, and most teams don't have guys with Fleener's measurables and college production.  Here you have a player who can do something highly sought after in the NFL, and has physical ability superior to the next closest position prospect at his position, and he's still not a number one pick.

There were two Guards taken in the first round and not a single TE.  Traditionally Guards are the least paid position on the football field outside of kickers, suggesting they are the least valuable, yet two were taken before the best TE prospect in the last two drafts.  Rob Gronkowski was a 2nd round pick.  Aaron Hernandez was a 4th round pick.  Jimmy Graham was a 3rd round pick.  So it's not like Fleener is in bad company.  My biggest beef is here you have all this evidence for how valuable TEs are, and NFL personnel people still undervalue them.  I just don't get it and simply don't understand why NFL personnel people are undervaluing the position with the rarest combination of physical ability in football, the jumbo athlete. 

Any of you have any theories?






Re: Truly surprised (and bothered) - socalstanfan1 - 04-27-2012

I guess I would describe myself as surprised, but not particularly bothered.  It seems to me that Fleener would be well worth investing a first round draft choice.  But perhaps two things might be going on.  First, there may be some sense that on the blocking side of the TE skill set Fleener needs some work.  Occasionally we read these things, though sometimes stories emphasize how much he has improved in this area, and others write that he still has work to do.  Sometimes group-think takes over and everyone comes to believe that, as much success as a guy had in college, he won't do it in the pros.  There certainly have been lots of cases of that over the years.  Maybe scouts and GMs are just looking too closely for flaws.  OR, maybe a consensus is emerging in the NFL that you can wait to pick up high quality TEs in later rounds (as your post indicated).  Why spend a first round choice if you are pretty convinced you can wait to the second or third round and get a guy of similar quality? 

I don't really know the answer to why Fleener wasn't chosen, but I doubt any kind of conspiracy or discrimination, the types of things that WOULD really bother me.  Fleener will get his chance, and I think he'll be great in the NFL.

My theory is... - Redrum - 04-27-2012

Fleener will get his chance to play in the NFL.  He will get paid handsomely for doing what he presumably loves to do.  It is more important that Fleener play for the right team.  "Right" in this sense:  a team that knows how to use a TE and is willing to adapt schemes (or at least their thinking)  to leverage Fleener's skills.    Beats me which of the teams those are.  A higher draft place to a team that later trades or releases him because what they really want and whose scheme requires an offensive guard blocker at TE ultimately does not serve Fleener at all.   

It would be great for Stanford to have lots of high draft picks, I guess,  but not fulfilling pre-draft hype and speculation isn't a reason for concern.  A long, distinguished career is the best outcome.



Re: Truly surprised (and bothered) - OutsiderFan - 04-27-2012

My beef is with the fact no team had the "balls" to say "you know what, we could get a TE later, but let's differentiate and take the best TE now and give us the best chance of having a unique competitive edge."  That, and the fact Dustin Keller was a first round pick for the N.Y. Jets a few years ago and Fleener seems to be a better prospect; runs faster, is a better blocker, has a higher vertical, and importantly, is 4 inches taller.



Re: Truly surprised (and bothered) - oldguy - 04-27-2012

An article somewhere online recently pointed out that when a team has multiple high picks, rarely do the players do as well as projected. I believe the speculation is that a player like AL really does make the players around him better, so the NFL tends to over-value them. May or not be true in this care - we'll see.

Re: Truly surprised (and bothered) - CowboyIndian - 04-27-2012

How about if he goes to Indy with their first pick today? That'd be OK with me.

Re: Truly surprised (and bothered) - FarmBoy - 04-27-2012

As a Stanford fan, I'm bothered because I was hoping for a historic draft with 3+ players taken in the first. But I wasn't super surprised based on the way Martin was dropping after his Pro day and the fact that TEs don't often go in the first round.

I will be less much less bothered if they both find solid organizations. To that end, being a mid-late first round is better than being an early 2nd. It would be fun if one of them teamed up with Luck in Indy.

Re: Truly surprised (and bothered) - FarmBoy - 04-27-2012

I was also hoping to see Fleener in a 49er's uniform.

Re: Truly surprised (and bothered) - CrazedZooChimp - 04-27-2012

(04-27-2012, 06:15 AM)OutsiderFan link Wrote:My beef is with the fact no team had the "balls" to say "you know what, we could get a TE later, but let's differentiate and take the best TE now and give us the best chance of having a unique competitive edge."  That, and the fact Dustin Keller was a first round pick for the N.Y. Jets a few years ago and Fleener seems to be a better prospect; runs faster, is a better blocker, has a higher vertical, and importantly, is 4 inches taller.

It would be awfully dumb for a team that thinks they can get him later on to use a first round draft pick for him.  That's called wasting picks.

Clearly teams were looking to fill other needs than receiving (and offensive line for that matter).  Only 4 WRs were taken in the first round, no TE was taken above him.  Only two OTs were taken in the first round, and Martin is probably #4 or so.  Clearly most people making mock-drafts misjudged what positions teams were concerned with (I get the impression that more teams took defense than was expected).  I don't think there's anything to be annoyed by here, except that it would have been fun to have 4 guys taken in round one.  Anyways, now we can watch Luck throw to Fleener for however many more years.

Re: Truly surprised (and bothered) - 76lsjumb - 04-27-2012

"Plunkett to Vataha" worked out okay for the Patriots a few years back:

http://www.patspulpit.com/2009/11/10/1123687/time-capsule-plunkett-to-vataha

No reason why Luck to Fleener couldn't do the same for the Colts...  :)



Re: Truly surprised (and bothered) - fullmetal - 04-27-2012

Didn't a lot of people have the Browns taking Martin?  And look what they did to their draft--gave up a bucketload of picks to take Trent Richardson, and then later Brandon Weeden, for their first-round haul.  The Browns must have some insider knowledge about underrated OL and WR prospects in the draft if they're going to do anything with their offense this next season.  And so much for Colt McCoy...

Re: Truly surprised (and bothered) - CompSci87 - 04-27-2012

(04-27-2012, 09:30 AM)FarmBoy link Wrote:I was also hoping to see Fleener in a 49er's uniform.

I never expected that, given that the 49ers have Vernon Davis and Delanie Walker. Davis is a stud, and Walker is also a good receiving tight end. Harbaugh actually considered using Walker at wide receiver late last season when the 49er's WR corps was so depleted by injuries.

I'm still hacked off about how the Browns used Vardell - Redrum - 04-27-2012

The Bermuda Triangle of good Stanford players.

Re: Truly surprised (and bothered) - fullmetal - 04-27-2012

(04-27-2012, 09:30 AM)FarmBoy link Wrote:I was also hoping to see Fleener in a 49er's uniform.

I don't think anyone expected to see AJ Jenkins up there.  Stephen Hill was a pundit consensus pick for SF (if they didn't have Fleener for backstory's sake)--Hill seems to be a much better receiver.  Jenkins would have been there in the later rounds, many think.  I don't think Harbaugh was involved with the Jenkins pick...

Re: Truly surprised (and bothered) - Nan3cy - 04-27-2012

According to this morning's Merc, Harbaugh was involved and totally in with the Jenkins pick.


Re: Truly surprised (and bothered) - fullmetal - 04-27-2012

In that case, maybe we all underestimate Jenkins.  Hope that pans out for the Niners.

Re: Truly surprised (and bothered) - washingtonismoney - 04-27-2012

As a Niners fan, I preferred the trade back into the second round for 2013 picks. To me, if you've got a team with a well-balanced, deep roster (and no clear players to address those needs you did have), you need to accumulate extra picks for the future. But what do I know.

Re: Truly surprised (and bothered) - Roberton3 - 04-27-2012

(04-27-2012, 07:11 PM)washingtonismoney link Wrote:As a Niners fan, I preferred the trade back into the second round for 2013 picks. To me, if you've got a team with a well-balanced, deep roster (and no clear players to address those needs you did have), you need to accumulate extra picks for the future. But what do I know.

Trading picks in this year's draft for picks in next year's draft is usually a great deal, because most teams are really impatient.  I've seen estimates that by trading for a pick in the next year's draft, you can get a pick that's about 70% more valuable.

Re: Truly surprised (and bothered) - unclechuck - 04-27-2012

While Fleener's downfield work was often electric, his hands were occasionally inconsistent; I recall at least a couple of dropped TDs in 2011 (OSU, and at least one other) Plus, his ability to find seams underneath was not the equal of Ertz's.

I said on an earlier thread I didn't expect him to go first round, and I think falling to the Colts @ #2 is a great fit. It will allow him to develop his consistency and underneath work, while refining his deep strike game. Absolute best case scenario for him.

Re: Truly surprised (and bothered) - fullmetal - 04-27-2012

Fleener wasn't graded as a great blocker by the scouts, so his value might have been limited.  I think he could develop as a blocker though.  He's dropped some easy catches before, but no one's perfect.  Martin was dinged for "not being able to move guys off the line of scrimmage."  That's pretty good motivation for him to disprove the pundits.

Teams with multiple high picks tend to pick for need rather than talent, right?  Not sure, but maybe that's why their picks tend not to pan out?