Slightly Surprising Statistics - Printable Version
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Slightly Surprising Statistics - washingtonismoney - 10-22-2010
I\'m a big fan of yards per play as the best statistic to show how you\'re doing as a team; it helps remove some of the noise from a team like Oregon, which fits so many plays into a game that both its offensive and defensive statistics are inflated.
Speaking of Oregon, did you realize that their offense through seven games is better than it was last year? (6.1 last year, 7.2 this year, a pretty crazy yard a play tacked on.)
But to focus on Stanford: our offense is marginally better than it was last year (6.8 versus 6.5. Interestingly, the Pac-10 offenses are much better this year than last: 6.5 yards/play was good enough to lead the conference last year. This year? 6.8 gets you third place, behind Oregon and USC, though there\'s a big gap between us and the rest of the conference--4th place, Arizona, only averages 6.3 yards/play) while our defense is much better (5.3 yards/play versus 6 yards/play). It\'s not immediately clear our statistics have been inflated by inferior opposition: while we\'ve only faced two of the top six defenses (Oregon and UCLA), we\'ve faced the two best offenses (as mentioned previously, Oregon and USC).
Point being, we\'re probably better than last year, which would\'ve surprised me to hear at the beginning of this year.
Re: Slightly Surprising Statistics - mark3k - 10-22-2010
Interesting analysis of a good stat, though I would note one significant shortcoming: simple averages ignore the often critical implications of volatility. Â
I watched the incrediblly exciting Barry Sanders for years, and he would commonly run for 0 yards, then negative 3, then 1, then 24... an example which equates to an impressive 5.5 YPC average. Â Of course, if you repeat that cycle in various sequences, you\'ll get a few first downs between punts, but rarely more (in practice, it forced our lame QBs into many third-and-long sequences which they rarely converted).
Similarly, if you complete 35 yard passes on every 5th attempt or so, you\'ll have  a great average to go along with your numerous punts.
I\'m not saying that our offense is "worse" than last year, but as fun as it is to watch the big play (particularly those executed by Mr. Sanders) the consistency with which Toby delivered his yards (particularly on third down) made his YPC much more valuable.
Re: Slightly Surprising Statistics - washingtonismoney - 10-22-2010
One of the underappreciated parts of Toby\'s game was how explosive he was: he had two plays over 60 yards, at least three over 30, and several over twenty. We don\'t have any player this year who\'s close to Toby in the "explosive plays" department--if anything, this year\'s offense is more consistent than last year\'s.
Re: Slightly Surprising Statistics - fyao - 10-22-2010
I think the ability to consistently move the chains and the ability to score touchdowns in the red zone are more important than yards per play, even though the latter is an important statistic.
Re: Slightly Surprising Statistics - mark3k - 10-22-2010
Quote:One of the underappreciated parts of Toby\'s game was how explosive he was: he had two plays over 60 yards, at least three over 30, and several over twenty. We don\'t have any player this year who\'s close to Toby in the "explosive plays" department--if anything, this year\'s offense is more consistent than last year\'s.
I concur with your appreciation of Toby\'s big play production as well, but Owusu and Baldwin have delivered a fair amount of that too this year. Â We just haven\'t gotten it from our RBs... though they\'re still young, and I\'m pleased with their overall performance (just not at Toby\'s level of consistency or explosiveness in his senior year, but who is?).
Re: Slightly Surprising Statistics - washingtonismoney - 10-22-2010
Baldwin had an 80 yard play against Sacramento State but the rest of his season is a possession receiver\'s: 12 yards/catch. Owusu is similar--he\'s got nearly 3 yards/catch fewer than last year.
I think it\'s the lack of explosive plays that have made us look ordinary at times (and struggle to finish) on our road games against UCLA, Notre Dame and Oregon.
Re: Slightly Surprising Statistics - Leftcoast - 10-22-2010
WI$ Â I get your point but it\'s hard to argue we didn\'t finish off ND or UCLA. Â I mean the score against the Bruins WAS 35-0, right?
Re: Slightly Surprising Statistics - washingtonismoney - 10-23-2010
We did, but we had distinct troubles finishing off drives. The score at halftime of UCLA, for example, was 13-0 and our red zone trips were one touchdown and two FGs. Both of the FGs came in & goal situations, meaning that we could\'ve had like a 17-0 lead, which would\'ve made the game far more comfortable. As it was, UCLA essentially blew the game in the second half by throwing too much, but given the run of play, we should\'ve made UCLA\'s decision-making in the second half a more-or-less nonfactor.
Re: Slightly Surprising Statistics - mark3k - 10-23-2010
and I\'d call Owusu\'s kick return against USC a "big play" (same with Luck\'s 52 yard run)!