[BostonCard]

Since we have a bye this week end, time to look at some other Pac-12 games:

The highlight, of course, is USC at Notre Dame.  Notre Dame has played well (only loss is against Georgia), but also hasn't beaten any ranked team.  That changes as they have three ranked teams in four weeks (USC, NC State next week, and Miami on Nov. 11).  SC should run away with the Pac-12 South, but doesn't have a lot of impressive wins either.  Notre Dame is a three point home favorite, suggesting they are two relatively evenly matched teams.  I'm rooting for the sweet meteor of death here.

Oregon at UCLA.  Interesting because it's two decent offenses against two poor defenses.  Oregon has a good rushing game; UCLA has a historically bad rush defense (even worse than ours).  Expect Royce Freeman to post 200+ yards.  On the flip side, UCLA has Rosen, and Oregon has a bad pass defense.  Over/under is 68 points, which seems low.  UCLA is favored by 6, which I guess surprises me, but perhaps our easy win over the Ducks after WSU beat them has reset expectations.

Arizona at Cal.  A couple weeks ago, both teams seemed like they would be struggling to make a bowl game.  Now, both look likely to make one.  Cal had a great win against WSU, and Arizona's QB is the best running back not named Bryce Love in the conference (seriously Tate has 649 yards rushing, 550 in the last two games).  Arizona is favored by 3 on the road; maybe the expectation is that Tate will run all over a team missing its best defenseman.

Rounding out the slate are Colorado at WSU and ASU at Utah; both home teams are appropriately favored by double digits.

BC

[BostonCard]

Since we have a bye this week end, time to look at some other Pac-12 games:

The highlight, of course, is USC at Notre Dame.  Notre Dame has played well (only loss is against Georgia), but also hasn't beaten any ranked team.  That changes as they have three ranked teams in four weeks (USC, NC State next week, and Miami on Nov. 11).  SC should run away with the Pac-12 South, but doesn't have a lot of impressive wins either.  Notre Dame is a three point home favorite, suggesting they are two relatively evenly matched teams.  I'm rooting for the sweet meteor of death here.

Oregon at UCLA.  Interesting because it's two decent offenses against two poor defenses.  Oregon has a good rushing game; UCLA has a historically bad rush defense (even worse than ours).  Expect Royce Freeman to post 200+ yards.  On the flip side, UCLA has Rosen, and Oregon has a bad pass defense.  Over/under is 68 points, which seems low.  UCLA is favored by 6, which I guess surprises me, but perhaps our easy win over the Ducks after WSU beat them has reset expectations.

Arizona at Cal.  A couple weeks ago, both teams seemed like they would be struggling to make a bowl game.  Now, both look likely to make one.  Cal had a great win against WSU, and Arizona's QB is the best running back not named Bryce Love in the conference (seriously Tate has 649 yards rushing, 550 in the last two games).  Arizona is favored by 3 on the road; maybe the expectation is that Tate will run all over a team missing its best defenseman.

Rounding out the slate are Colorado at WSU and ASU at Utah; both home teams are appropriately favored by double digits.

BC

[washingtonismoney]

Is Oregon a poor defense? I know Stanford just gashed 'em but.... ESPN has them ranked #40. FEI has them #53. S&P+ puts them at #60. That looks "decent" to me.

By contrast Stanford is #69 on FEI (not nice), #58 on ESPN, and #47 on S&P+.

[washingtonismoney]

Is Oregon a poor defense? I know Stanford just gashed 'em but.... ESPN has them ranked #40. FEI has them #53. S&P+ puts them at #60. That looks "decent" to me.

By contrast Stanford is #69 on FEI (not nice), #58 on ESPN, and #47 on S&P+.

[BostonCard]

Pass defense (not sure if you were quoting pass defense or total defense).  Oregon ranks 98th in yards/game (246), but you are right, they aren't that bad in more advanced metrics (yards per attempt and PER).  I was going by memory, and thought that they had a good run defense but a bad pass defense; it is merely "meh".

BC

[BostonCard]

Pass defense (not sure if you were quoting pass defense or total defense).  Oregon ranks 98th in yards/game (246), but you are right, they aren't that bad in more advanced metrics (yards per attempt and PER).  I was going by memory, and thought that they had a good run defense but a bad pass defense; it is merely "meh".

BC

[Hulk01]

Arcega Whiteside and Chryst made Arrion Springs (Oregon CB) look bad.  But Springs isn't.  He's likely to make first or second team all conference. 

The Ducks have an above average pass defense.  And they're an ILB away from having a decent run defense.

[Hulk01]

Arcega Whiteside and Chryst made Arrion Springs (Oregon CB) look bad.  But Springs isn't.  He's likely to make first or second team all conference. 

The Ducks have an above average pass defense.  And they're an ILB away from having a decent run defense.

[teejers1]

Think healthy ND handles SC;

Agree that Oregon-UCLA is a tough call.  Hard to see UCLA stopping Oregon's run game; hard to see Oregon containing Rosen.  Of course, Oregon may commit multiple penalties and coach may call too many passing plays, frustrating effectiveness of ground game (as happened against Stanford).  Who knows?

Agree that Cal-Arizona is also a tough game.  For some reason, I think Cal is in for a tough one (maybe due to loss of stud LB).  Would probably give the points and take 'Zona, but fortunately, I don't bet.

[teejers1]

Think healthy ND handles SC;

Agree that Oregon-UCLA is a tough call.  Hard to see UCLA stopping Oregon's run game; hard to see Oregon containing Rosen.  Of course, Oregon may commit multiple penalties and coach may call too many passing plays, frustrating effectiveness of ground game (as happened against Stanford).  Who knows?

Agree that Cal-Arizona is also a tough game.  For some reason, I think Cal is in for a tough one (maybe due to loss of stud LB).  Would probably give the points and take 'Zona, but fortunately, I don't bet.

[Spiny_Norman]

U.SC is down to one healthy DT.  One had back surgery. A 5th year senior who was not playing much left the team. And starter Josh Fatu was in a car accident this week and is on concussion protocol.  They'll rely on their DEs and LBs to stop N.D's running game.

http://beta.latimes.com/sports/usc/la-sp...ft07a-2gp1

[Spiny_Norman]

U.SC is down to one healthy DT.  One had back surgery. A 5th year senior who was not playing much left the team. And starter Josh Fatu was in a car accident this week and is on concussion protocol.  They'll rely on their DEs and LBs to stop N.D's running game.

http://beta.latimes.com/sports/usc/la-sp...ft07a-2gp1

[CTcard]

Agree that Oregon-UCLA is a tough call.  Hard to see UCLA stopping Oregon's run game; hard to see Oregon containing Rosen.  Of course, Oregon may commit multiple penalties and coach may call too many passing plays, frustrating effectiveness of ground game (as happened against Stanford).  Who knows?

Well, given that nationally those two teams are #127 and 130 (out of 130) in penalties, there may not be a play in the game without a flag.


And just to recap, Oregon calling too many pass plays against Stanford meant calling 13 for the game, five of those on their final two garbage time drives.
For reference, that is the same number of passes (without the garbage time padding) that Stanford called in their famous on-the-ground mugging of Oregon in 2013.

[CTcard]

Agree that Oregon-UCLA is a tough call.  Hard to see UCLA stopping Oregon's run game; hard to see Oregon containing Rosen.  Of course, Oregon may commit multiple penalties and coach may call too many passing plays, frustrating effectiveness of ground game (as happened against Stanford).  Who knows?

Well, given that nationally those two teams are #127 and 130 (out of 130) in penalties, there may not be a play in the game without a flag.


And just to recap, Oregon calling too many pass plays against Stanford meant calling 13 for the game, five of those on their final two garbage time drives.
For reference, that is the same number of passes (without the garbage time padding) that Stanford called in their famous on-the-ground mugging of Oregon in 2013.

[slide]

Pass defense (not sure if you were quoting pass defense or total defense).  Oregon ranks 98th in yards/game (246), but you are right, they aren't that bad in more advanced metrics (yards per attempt and PER).  I was going by memory, and thought that they had a good run defense but a bad pass defense; it is merely "meh".

BC

I like your take.  Oregon is a bad pass defense.  their only Pac-12 int was last weekend (vs 11 TDs).  12.35 per completion in league play, 281 yards per game etc.  57% completion rate and 7.5 ypa are probably their best pass D state.

[slide]

Pass defense (not sure if you were quoting pass defense or total defense).  Oregon ranks 98th in yards/game (246), but you are right, they aren't that bad in more advanced metrics (yards per attempt and PER).  I was going by memory, and thought that they had a good run defense but a bad pass defense; it is merely "meh".

BC

I like your take.  Oregon is a bad pass defense.  their only Pac-12 int was last weekend (vs 11 TDs).  12.35 per completion in league play, 281 yards per game etc.  57% completion rate and 7.5 ypa are probably their best pass D state.

[lex24]

Teejers, you didn’t really mean to say Oregon called too many pass plays against Stanford , did you. They ran the ball 25 straight times.

Think healthy ND handles SC;

Agree that Oregon-UCLA is a tough call.  Hard to see UCLA stopping Oregon's run game; hard to see Oregon containing Rosen.  Of course, Oregon may commit multiple penalties and coach may call too many passing plays, frustrating effectiveness of ground game (as happened against Stanford).  Who knows?

Agree that ןɐɔ-Arizona is also a tough game.  For some reason, I think ןɐɔ is in for a tough one (maybe due to loss of stud LB).  Would probably give the points and take 'Zona, but fortunately, I don't bet.

[lex24]

Teejers, you didn’t really mean to say Oregon called too many pass plays against Stanford , did you. They ran the ball 25 straight times.

Think healthy ND handles SC;

Agree that Oregon-UCLA is a tough call.  Hard to see UCLA stopping Oregon's run game; hard to see Oregon containing Rosen.  Of course, Oregon may commit multiple penalties and coach may call too many passing plays, frustrating effectiveness of ground game (as happened against Stanford).  Who knows?

Agree that ןɐɔ-Arizona is also a tough game.  For some reason, I think ןɐɔ is in for a tough one (maybe due to loss of stud LB).  Would probably give the points and take 'Zona, but fortunately, I don't bet.

[teejers1]

Yes, I did.  The Ducks' QB was terrible - seriously, the IM QB at our frat back in the day was MUCH better than Burmeister.

And if you look at the YPP of those 25 plays (as was done previously), it reveals they should have run it until Stanford proved it could stop it (which was exactly once in 1H IIRC).  But Oregon mucked up the waters by committing too many penalties.  Still, they were ripping off yards against Stanford non-stop.

[teejers1]

Yes, I did.  The Ducks' QB was terrible - seriously, the IM QB at our frat back in the day was MUCH better than Burmeister.

And if you look at the YPP of those 25 plays (as was done previously), it reveals they should have run it until Stanford proved it could stop it (which was exactly once in 1H IIRC).  But Oregon mucked up the waters by committing too many penalties.  Still, they were ripping off yards against Stanford non-stop.

[CowboyIndian]

Yes, I did.  The Ducks' QB was terrible - seriously, the IM QB at our frat back in the day was MUCH better than Burmeister.

And if you look at the YPP of those 25 plays (as was done previously), it reveals they should have run it until Stanford proved it could stop it (which was exactly once in 1H IIRC).  But Oregon mucked up the waters by committing too many penalties.  Still, they were ripping off yards against Stanford non-stop.

49-7

[CowboyIndian]

Yes, I did.  The Ducks' QB was terrible - seriously, the IM QB at our frat back in the day was MUCH better than Burmeister.

And if you look at the YPP of those 25 plays (as was done previously), it reveals they should have run it until Stanford proved it could stop it (which was exactly once in 1H IIRC).  But Oregon mucked up the waters by committing too many penalties.  Still, they were ripping off yards against Stanford non-stop.

49-7

[lex24]

By that time they were down 35-7. Stanford held them to about 50 yards rushing the second half.

Yes, I did.  The Ducks' QB was terrible - seriously, the IM QB at our frat back in the day was MUCH better than Burmeister.

And if you look at the YPP of those 25 plays (as was done previously), it reveals they should have run it until Stanford proved it could stop it (which was exactly once in 1H IIRC).  But Oregon mucked up the waters by committing too many penalties.  Still, they were ripping off yards against Stanford non-stop.

[lex24]

By that time they were down 35-7. Stanford held them to about 50 yards rushing the second half.

Yes, I did.  The Ducks' QB was terrible - seriously, the IM QB at our frat back in the day was MUCH better than Burmeister.

And if you look at the YPP of those 25 plays (as was done previously), it reveals they should have run it until Stanford proved it could stop it (which was exactly once in 1H IIRC).  But Oregon mucked up the waters by committing too many penalties.  Still, they were ripping off yards against Stanford non-stop.

[BostonCard]

Ternera seems to forget that the Ducks rarely passed out of choice.  We are talking about 5 passes in the first half.  Two of course were inadvised, but it was already 28-7 by then, which is to say the ducks were behind by three touchdowns despite throwing it three times.

Also worth noting that they turned the call over on downs once after being stuffed on third and fourth and one.

And lastly... once Phillips and Kalambayi were back in, both the run and passing game were toast.

The idea that the Ducks would have kept this game closer had they not passed at all is a figment of Teejers twisted mind.

BC

[BostonCard]

Ternera seems to forget that the Ducks rarely passed out of choice.  We are talking about 5 passes in the first half.  Two of course were inadvised, but it was already 28-7 by then, which is to say the ducks were behind by three touchdowns despite throwing it three times.

Also worth noting that they turned the call over on downs once after being stuffed on third and fourth and one.

And lastly... once Phillips and Kalambayi were back in, both the run and passing game were toast.

The idea that the Ducks would have kept this game closer had they not passed at all is a figment of Teejers twisted mind.

BC

[Mick]

49-7.  Most lopsided win by the Cardinal against the Oregon Ducks ever.  Pretty darned cool. 

[Mick]

49-7.  Most lopsided win by the Cardinal against the Oregon Ducks ever.  Pretty darned cool. 

[Beeg_Dawg]

[quote author=Boston Card link=topic=17737.msg207171#msg207171 date=1508530709]
Pass defense (not sure if you were quoting pass defense or total defense).  Oregon ranks 98th in yards/game (246), but you are right, they aren't that bad in more advanced metrics (yards per attempt and PER).  I was going by memory, and thought that they had a good run defense but a bad pass defense; it is merely "meh".

BC

I like your take.  Oregon is a bad pass defense.  their only Pac-12 int was last weekend (vs 11 TDs).  12.35 per completion in league play, 281 yards per game etc.  57% completion rate and 7.5 ypa are probably their best pass D state.
[/quote]

Well, the pick last weekend was the equivalent of a blind squirrel finding an acorn.  What should have been a TD turned into a fluke pick. 

[Beeg_Dawg]

[quote author=Boston Card link=topic=17737.msg207171#msg207171 date=1508530709]
Pass defense (not sure if you were quoting pass defense or total defense).  Oregon ranks 98th in yards/game (246), but you are right, they aren't that bad in more advanced metrics (yards per attempt and PER).  I was going by memory, and thought that they had a good run defense but a bad pass defense; it is merely "meh".

BC

I like your take.  Oregon is a bad pass defense.  their only Pac-12 int was last weekend (vs 11 TDs).  12.35 per completion in league play, 281 yards per game etc.  57% completion rate and 7.5 ypa are probably their best pass D state.
[/quote]

Well, the pick last weekend was the equivalent of a blind squirrel finding an acorn.  What should have been a TD turned into a fluke pick. 

[OutsiderFan]

Only one of these games is an easy call for me.

Arizona (-3.5) at ןɐɔ 
I don't trust ןɐɔ's run defense, especially without Downs, and don't think ןɐɔ can score enough. Arizona covers barely.

Oregon at UCLA (-6.5)
How can this line be so low?  No, UCLA doesn't run well, or play great run defense, but still, Ducks have no QB and Rosen will light up any defense.  UCLA covers easily.

ASU at Utah (-10)
ASU surely got some confidence from UW win, and Utah struggles on offense.  ASU covers.

Colorado at Washington State (-10)
Cougs will be looking to bounce back from ןɐɔ debacle and Buffs can't keep up on offense.  WSU covers.

Southern ןɐɔ at Votre Dame (-3.5)
This news about Southern ןɐɔ having no DL is bad news against anybody, but especially a team that averages over 300 yards per game on the ground.  ND defense not elite, but good enough to get some key stops.  Still, ND only wins by a FG and Southern ןɐɔ covers by a hair.  Officials probably make some terrible calls to aid ND.

[OutsiderFan]

Only one of these games is an easy call for me.

Arizona (-3.5) at ןɐɔ 
I don't trust ןɐɔ's run defense, especially without Downs, and don't think ןɐɔ can score enough. Arizona covers barely.

Oregon at UCLA (-6.5)
How can this line be so low?  No, UCLA doesn't run well, or play great run defense, but still, Ducks have no QB and Rosen will light up any defense.  UCLA covers easily.

ASU at Utah (-10)
ASU surely got some confidence from UW win, and Utah struggles on offense.  ASU covers.

Colorado at Washington State (-10)
Cougs will be looking to bounce back from ןɐɔ debacle and Buffs can't keep up on offense.  WSU covers.

Southern ןɐɔ at Votre Dame (-3.5)
This news about Southern ןɐɔ having no DL is bad news against anybody, but especially a team that averages over 300 yards per game on the ground.  ND defense not elite, but good enough to get some key stops.  Still, ND only wins by a FG and Southern ןɐɔ covers by a hair.  Officials probably make some terrible calls to aid ND.

[JohnR34231]

49-7.  Most lopsided win by the Cardinal against the Oregon Ducks ever.  Pretty darned cool.

Yeah, who would have thought after they kicked our butts in Eugene in 2014 and (probably) knocked us out of the playoffs in 2015 we'd win the next two games by a combined score of 101-34.

[JohnR34231]

49-7.  Most lopsided win by the Cardinal against the Oregon Ducks ever.  Pretty darned cool.

Yeah, who would have thought after they kicked our butts in Eugene in 2014 and (probably) knocked us out of the playoffs in 2015 we'd win the next two games by a combined score of 101-34.

[BostonCard]

Also worth paying attention to Michigan versus penn state for the H-award implications.  Here’s hoping hsrbaugh’s run defense stifles Barkley.

BC

[BostonCard]

Also worth paying attention to Michigan versus penn state for the H-award implications.  Here’s hoping hsrbaugh’s run defense stifles Barkley.

BC

[FarmDad.01]

Back in high school, I saw sickening footage of USoCal's All-American goons, the McKeever twins (https://www.si.com/vault/1959/11/16/6010...-down-mike). I graduated from U. Michigan and thus rightly despise Touchdown Jesus Tech. So today's game presents a true Hobson's choice. I think it best if USoCal squeezes out a narrow road win to hike its ranking; that Stanford runs its win streak to nine by demolishing the Leprechuans on Nov. 25, and that the Cardinal beats Darnold & Co. in the CG. 

[FarmDad.01]

Back in high school, I saw sickening footage of USoCal's All-American goons, the McKeever twins (https://www.si.com/vault/1959/11/16/6010...-down-mike). I graduated from U. Michigan and thus rightly despise Touchdown Jesus Tech. So today's game presents a true Hobson's choice. I think it best if USoCal squeezes out a narrow road win to hike its ranking; that Stanford runs its win streak to nine by demolishing the Leprechuans on Nov. 25, and that the Cardinal beats Darnold & Co. in the CG. 

[DC 86]

Back in high school, I saw sickening footage of USoCal's All-American goons, the McKeever twins (https://www.si.com/vault/1959/11/16/6010...-down-mike).

As a saving grace, Mike McKeever's son (Barry McKeever) chose Stanford over USC and was a pretty good linebacker in the mid-80s until injuries slowed him down. I believe Barry was still an infant when his father was involved in the auto accident that eventually claimed his life (after being in a coma for almost two years).

[DC 86]

Back in high school, I saw sickening footage of USoCal's All-American goons, the McKeever twins (https://www.si.com/vault/1959/11/16/6010...-down-mike).

As a saving grace, Mike McKeever's son (Barry McKeever) chose Stanford over USC and was a pretty good linebacker in the mid-80s until injuries slowed him down. I believe Barry was still an infant when his father was involved in the auto accident that eventually claimed his life (after being in a coma for almost two years).