(12-02-2017, 07:46 AM)washingtonismoney link Wrote:[quote author=stupac2 link=topic=18246.msg216485#msg216485 date=1512223811]
Also, re: the DL, did anyone see Thomas coming in 2015? He was a RS soph and balled out. I know we can't expect that type of performance from whoever's on the bench, but we can hope...
Yeah, pretty much. He was a five-star recruit who redshirted and had 10.5 tackles for loss as a redshirt freshman, which led the conference (among freshmen). He then got named All Pac-12 honorable mention. Only two other freshman defensive linemen got at least honorable mention that year: Greg Gaines and Hercules Mata'afa.
Taking a leap to second overall pick in the draft was a pretty incredible leap, but all the evidence in December 2015 was pointing to a high-quality starting lineman.
Jovan Swann has nice statistics for a young player if we're using mere mortals as his peer group. 3.5 TFL, 1.5 sacks, 1 INT 1 fumble forced, 6 hurries. Nice stuff -- compares favorably with Matt Masifilo, Ben Gardner, and Henry Anderson at similar stages of their careers. (And is better than Terrence Stephens's equivalent production). But it's no Solly Thomas.
Now, saying Swann compares favorably with some really good defensive linemen hardly seems like a crisis. And, ordinarily, it wouldn't be -- it'd be cause for celebration. The problem is, those defensive linemen didn't reach full house-wrecking powers until late in their careers. As Shaw likes to say, football is a junior/senior game and that's really true at the line. So we can't expect Swann to be a *good* defensive lineman until 2019 or 2020.
Again, in the ordinary course of things that's not a problem. But if you think the defensive line needs to get massively better than 2017 to realistically win a conference championship (or more), and you think Phillips is leaving, it's really hard to make the numbers work out when Swann is your best defensive line prospect in terms of actual on-field play. If Phillips comes back -- which won't happen -- I can just about talk myself into an above-average line backed by much better linebacker and defensive back play. But once Phillips leaves I think the defense is worse in 2018 than 2017, which means a lot of shootouts and a 7-5 season.
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I wasn't talking about Swann, I was talking about guys who are redshirting. If someone can make a Thomas-like jump from "on the bench" to "honorable all-pac-12" then we have a chance, especially if the secondary starts performing to form.
But, really, there's not a lot of reason for optimism on the defense. We'll probably need something like 2011 or 2015 to happen where the offense is so good that the defense just needs to be "good enough", though given the performance this year and our losses and our reserves, I'm not optimistic.
Then again, did we have any reason (besides Skov coming back) to think we'd get the performance we did in 2012? Hope springs eternal...