[washingtonismoney]

"Stanford QB K.J. Costello completed 18-of-35 deep passes this season, for 505 yards and 6 TDs without an INT.

That's good enough for the nation's best deep passer rating."

Aside from PFF's often bespoke and baroque stats, 10+ YPA is pretty darn good

https://twitter.com/PFF_College/status/9...8156414977

[washingtonismoney]

"Stanford QB K.J. Costello completed 18-of-35 deep passes this season, for 505 yards and 6 TDs without an INT.

That's good enough for the nation's best deep passer rating."

Aside from PFF's often bespoke and baroque stats, 10+ YPA is pretty darn good

https://twitter.com/PFF_College/status/9...8156414977

[BostonCard]

Hi overall resume is more pedestrian, but I wonder if Costello 2018 could mirror Hogan 2013, especially if Love comes back.

BC

[BostonCard]

Hi overall resume is more pedestrian, but I wonder if Costello 2018 could mirror Hogan 2013, especially if Love comes back.

BC

[needle]

Much credit to JJAW for this stat.

[needle]

Much credit to JJAW for this stat.

[washingtonismoney]

Hi overall resume is more pedestrian, but I wonder if Costello 2018 could mirror Hogan 2013, especially if Love comes back.

Costello had more down games in 2017 than Hogan in 2012, but I don't, overall, see a brobdingnagian difference between the two:

Yards per play
K.J. 2017: 6.92
Hogan 2012: 6.57

Yards per attempt
KJ: 7.4
Hogan: 7.2

Yards per carry
KJ: 2.7
Hogan: 4.78

TD pass %age
KJ: 5.97
Hogan: 5.92%

Int %age
KJ: 1.08%
Hogan: 1.97%

If anything I think KJ was the better player.

[washingtonismoney]

Hi overall resume is more pedestrian, but I wonder if Costello 2018 could mirror Hogan 2013, especially if Love comes back.

Costello had more down games in 2017 than Hogan in 2012, but I don't, overall, see a brobdingnagian difference between the two:

Yards per play
K.J. 2017: 6.92
Hogan 2012: 6.57

Yards per attempt
KJ: 7.4
Hogan: 7.2

Yards per carry
KJ: 2.7
Hogan: 4.78

TD pass %age
KJ: 5.97
Hogan: 5.92%

Int %age
KJ: 1.08%
Hogan: 1.97%

If anything I think KJ was the better player.

[CTcard]

If anything I think KJ was the better player.

One of Hogan's great attributes his first year was his running and ability to scramble, particularly to convert on third downs when/if the pocket collapsed. KJ appears to have significant mobility, but hasn't actually exploited that aspect of his game as much.

[CTcard]

If anything I think KJ was the better player.

One of Hogan's great attributes his first year was his running and ability to scramble, particularly to convert on third downs when/if the pocket collapsed. KJ appears to have significant mobility, but hasn't actually exploited that aspect of his game as much.

[washingtonismoney]

One of Hogan's great attributes his first year was his running and ability to scramble, particularly to convert on third downs when/if the pocket collapsed. KJ appears to have significant mobility, but hasn't actually exploited that aspect of his game as much.

I think that's fair. I wouldn't say there's a gigantic difference between the two. But, performance-wise, they seem very very close to me.

[washingtonismoney]

One of Hogan's great attributes his first year was his running and ability to scramble, particularly to convert on third downs when/if the pocket collapsed. KJ appears to have significant mobility, but hasn't actually exploited that aspect of his game as much.

I think that's fair. I wouldn't say there's a gigantic difference between the two. But, performance-wise, they seem very very close to me.

[Mick]

[quote author=CTcard link=topic=18303.msg217234#msg217234 date=1512522406]
One of Hogan's great attributes his first year was his running and ability to scramble, particularly to convert on third downs when/if the pocket collapsed. KJ appears to have significant mobility, but hasn't actually exploited that aspect of his game as much.

I think that's fair. I wouldn't say there's a gigantic difference between the two. But, performance-wise, they seem very very close to me.
[/quote]

The few times KJ has taken off, he seems to have gained a lot of yards.

[Mick]

[quote author=CTcard link=topic=18303.msg217234#msg217234 date=1512522406]
One of Hogan's great attributes his first year was his running and ability to scramble, particularly to convert on third downs when/if the pocket collapsed. KJ appears to have significant mobility, but hasn't actually exploited that aspect of his game as much.

I think that's fair. I wouldn't say there's a gigantic difference between the two. But, performance-wise, they seem very very close to me.
[/quote]

The few times KJ has taken off, he seems to have gained a lot of yards.

[FarmBoy]

[quote author=washingtonismoney link=topic=18303.msg217235#msg217235 date=1512523104]
[quote author=CTcard link=topic=18303.msg217234#msg217234 date=1512522406]
One of Hogan's great attributes his first year was his running and ability to scramble, particularly to convert on third downs when/if the pocket collapsed. KJ appears to have significant mobility, but hasn't actually exploited that aspect of his game as much.

I think that's fair. I wouldn't say there's a gigantic difference between the two. But, performance-wise, they seem very very close to me.
[/quote]

The few times KJ has taken off, he seems to have gained a lot of yards.
[/quote]

Really? I would say he's a sneaky runner who often eeks out enough yards to pick up the 1st down, and seems to have a nose for where the down market is. But I struggle to think of any big gains he's had. 

[FarmBoy]

[quote author=washingtonismoney link=topic=18303.msg217235#msg217235 date=1512523104]
[quote author=CTcard link=topic=18303.msg217234#msg217234 date=1512522406]
One of Hogan's great attributes his first year was his running and ability to scramble, particularly to convert on third downs when/if the pocket collapsed. KJ appears to have significant mobility, but hasn't actually exploited that aspect of his game as much.

I think that's fair. I wouldn't say there's a gigantic difference between the two. But, performance-wise, they seem very very close to me.
[/quote]

The few times KJ has taken off, he seems to have gained a lot of yards.
[/quote]

Really? I would say he's a sneaky runner who often eeks out enough yards to pick up the 1st down, and seems to have a nose for where the down market is. But I struggle to think of any big gains he's had. 

[BostonCard]

His longest run was 25 yards, and he had 5 10+ yard runs, with an average of 3.67 yards per carry (including sacks).  Overall, he ran for 9 first downs and 3 touchdowns in 27 attempts (including sacks).  On third down, he scrambled for a first down or a touchdown 5 times in 10 attempts (including sacks).  Situationally, that's pretty good.

BC

[BostonCard]

His longest run was 25 yards, and he had 5 10+ yard runs, with an average of 3.67 yards per carry (including sacks).  Overall, he ran for 9 first downs and 3 touchdowns in 27 attempts (including sacks).  On third down, he scrambled for a first down or a touchdown 5 times in 10 attempts (including sacks).  Situationally, that's pretty good.

BC

[stupac2]

If Love comes back the offense has a chance to be really, really special next year. Hell, even if Love doesn't come back there's still a ton of potential.

[stupac2]

If Love comes back the offense has a chance to be really, really special next year. Hell, even if Love doesn't come back there's still a ton of potential.

[CTcard]

I think that's fair. I wouldn't say there's a gigantic difference between the two. But, performance-wise, they seem very very close to me.

I would agree. I was trying to elaborate on the point, rather than contradict.

Really? I would say he's a sneaky runner who often eeks out enough yards to pick up the 1st down, and seems to have a nose for where the down market is. But I struggle to think of any big gains he's had.

Depends upon just what you mean. Costello has had runs of 14 ($C), 18 (UW), 14 (WSU), 12 (Utah), and 25 (Rice).
Not Khalil Tate runs, but not bad.

[CTcard]

I think that's fair. I wouldn't say there's a gigantic difference between the two. But, performance-wise, they seem very very close to me.

I would agree. I was trying to elaborate on the point, rather than contradict.

Really? I would say he's a sneaky runner who often eeks out enough yards to pick up the 1st down, and seems to have a nose for where the down market is. But I struggle to think of any big gains he's had.

Depends upon just what you mean. Costello has had runs of 14 ($C), 18 (UW), 14 (WSU), 12 (Utah), and 25 (Rice).
Not Khalil Tate runs, but not bad.

[BostonCard]

Yards per play
K.J. 2017: 6.92
Hogan 2012: 6.57

Yards per attempt
KJ: 7.4
Hogan: 7.2

Yards per carry
KJ: 2.7
Hogan: 4.78

Yards per play is a bit of a deceiving stat here.  Costello has slightly better YPA, and substantially worse yards per carry, and yet his YPA are significantly better than Hogan's.  That only works out because KJ vs. Hogan's run/pass mix was very different.  Hogan was a better runner, and had significantly more carries.  But since ypc running < ypa passing for both, the runs drag Hogan's average down more than KJ's.

Hogan: rushes (including sacks): 55; pass attempts (excluding sacks): 152.  Proportion rushes 26.6%. That means that over 1/4 of the time that Hogan did not hand off, he ended up running the ball (a substantial number as part of the "Hogan package" early in the year.

Costello: rushes (including sacks): 27; pass attempts (excluding sacks): 184.  Proportion rushes 12.8%.  That means that just over 1/8th of the time Costello did not hand off, he ended up running the ball; that is he was roughly half as likely to run the ball as Hogan.  By the way, I maintain he should have run more; a lot of those read options had the DE crashing on Love; Costello could have gotten big gains had he kept the ball.

Either way, though, the two players had pretty similar seasons.

BC

[BostonCard]

Yards per play
K.J. 2017: 6.92
Hogan 2012: 6.57

Yards per attempt
KJ: 7.4
Hogan: 7.2

Yards per carry
KJ: 2.7
Hogan: 4.78

Yards per play is a bit of a deceiving stat here.  Costello has slightly better YPA, and substantially worse yards per carry, and yet his YPA are significantly better than Hogan's.  That only works out because KJ vs. Hogan's run/pass mix was very different.  Hogan was a better runner, and had significantly more carries.  But since ypc running < ypa passing for both, the runs drag Hogan's average down more than KJ's.

Hogan: rushes (including sacks): 55; pass attempts (excluding sacks): 152.  Proportion rushes 26.6%. That means that over 1/4 of the time that Hogan did not hand off, he ended up running the ball (a substantial number as part of the "Hogan package" early in the year.

Costello: rushes (including sacks): 27; pass attempts (excluding sacks): 184.  Proportion rushes 12.8%.  That means that just over 1/8th of the time Costello did not hand off, he ended up running the ball; that is he was roughly half as likely to run the ball as Hogan.  By the way, I maintain he should have run more; a lot of those read options had the DE crashing on Love; Costello could have gotten big gains had he kept the ball.

Either way, though, the two players had pretty similar seasons.

BC

[Spiny_Norman]

Either way, though, the two players had pretty similar seasons.

BC

Except for their win-loss record

[Spiny_Norman]

Either way, though, the two players had pretty similar seasons.

BC

Except for their win-loss record

[lex24]

Well, first he has to beat out Mills. That will be interesting.

Hi overall resume is more pedestrian, but I wonder if Costello 2018 could mirror Hogan 2013, especially if Love comes back.

BC

[lex24]

Well, first he has to beat out Mills. That will be interesting.

Hi overall resume is more pedestrian, but I wonder if Costello 2018 could mirror Hogan 2013, especially if Love comes back.

BC

[washingtonismoney]

Except for their win-loss record

Fair, though Costello played against tougher teams than Hogan did. Counting the UCLA and ASU games as Costello games, the average Sagarin rating of his opponents was 81.45. (which would be roughly a top-25 team this year). Hogan, by contrast, faced off against opponents whose average rating was 78.1. (To be fair, the Colorado game -- which I counted as a start -- was an outlier. Remove that and Hogan's average opponent in 2012 was 83.14.)

Anyway, the win-loss record comparison is hardly something you can credit Hogan for. The 2012 defense was excellent and the 2017 defense was average, if not outright poor.

[washingtonismoney]

Except for their win-loss record

Fair, though Costello played against tougher teams than Hogan did. Counting the UCLA and ASU games as Costello games, the average Sagarin rating of his opponents was 81.45. (which would be roughly a top-25 team this year). Hogan, by contrast, faced off against opponents whose average rating was 78.1. (To be fair, the Colorado game -- which I counted as a start -- was an outlier. Remove that and Hogan's average opponent in 2012 was 83.14.)

Anyway, the win-loss record comparison is hardly something you can credit Hogan for. The 2012 defense was excellent and the 2017 defense was average, if not outright poor.

[FarmBoy]

Perhaps my view of Hogan as a better runner is skewed by the WSU game in which he single handedly won the game with his legs, which was an outlier. Still, I seem to recall Hogan's wheels being more of a weapon in general. Maybe it's also because he originally had a "package" that made use of his running ability more.

It will be really interesting to see how the QB competition plays outl. If Mills is really good enough to unseat Costello, the offense should be in great shape next year.

I tried to find the full list of PFF top down the field passers but couldn't find it. Anyone know where to look?

[FarmBoy]

Perhaps my view of Hogan as a better runner is skewed by the WSU game in which he single handedly won the game with his legs, which was an outlier. Still, I seem to recall Hogan's wheels being more of a weapon in general. Maybe it's also because he originally had a "package" that made use of his running ability more.

It will be really interesting to see how the QB competition plays outl. If Mills is really good enough to unseat Costello, the offense should be in great shape next year.

I tried to find the full list of PFF top down the field passers but couldn't find it. Anyone know where to look?

[French Rage]

[quote author=Spiny_Norman link=topic=18303.msg217267#msg217267 date=1512539402]
Except for their win-loss record

Fair, though Costello played against tougher teams than Hogan did. Counting the UCLA and ASU games as Costello games, the average Sagarin rating of his opponents was 81.45. (which would be roughly a top-25 team this year). Hogan, by contrast, faced off against opponents whose average rating was 78.1. (To be fair, the Colorado game -- which I counted as a start -- was an outlier. Remove that and Hogan's average opponent in 2012 was 83.14.)

Anyway, the win-loss record comparison is hardly something you can credit Hogan for. The 2012 defense was excellent and the 2017 defense was average, if not outright poor.
[/quote]

I don't exactly think of Hogan's opponents in 2012 as easy.  Sure Colorado was a walkover, but OSU was a team near the top of the division, Oregon was Oregon, UCLA was good enough to win its division and playing them twice in 6 days was not easy.  That's what makes the end of 2012 run so impressive.

[French Rage]

[quote author=Spiny_Norman link=topic=18303.msg217267#msg217267 date=1512539402]
Except for their win-loss record

Fair, though Costello played against tougher teams than Hogan did. Counting the UCLA and ASU games as Costello games, the average Sagarin rating of his opponents was 81.45. (which would be roughly a top-25 team this year). Hogan, by contrast, faced off against opponents whose average rating was 78.1. (To be fair, the Colorado game -- which I counted as a start -- was an outlier. Remove that and Hogan's average opponent in 2012 was 83.14.)

Anyway, the win-loss record comparison is hardly something you can credit Hogan for. The 2012 defense was excellent and the 2017 defense was average, if not outright poor.
[/quote]

I don't exactly think of Hogan's opponents in 2012 as easy.  Sure Colorado was a walkover, but OSU was a team near the top of the division, Oregon was Oregon, UCLA was good enough to win its division and playing them twice in 6 days was not easy.  That's what makes the end of 2012 run so impressive.

[washingtonismoney]

I don't exactly think of Hogan's opponents in 2012 as easy.  Sure Colorado was a walkover, but OSU was a team near the top of the division, Oregon was Oregon, UCLA was good enough to win its division and playing them twice in 6 days was not easy.  That's what makes the end of 2012 run so impressive.

Sure, but 2012's opponents were even easier. And, of course, the 2012 defense was way better than the 2017 defense. So the W-L differential is not really that relevant a statistic.

[washingtonismoney]

I don't exactly think of Hogan's opponents in 2012 as easy.  Sure Colorado was a walkover, but OSU was a team near the top of the division, Oregon was Oregon, UCLA was good enough to win its division and playing them twice in 6 days was not easy.  That's what makes the end of 2012 run so impressive.

Sure, but 2012's opponents were even easier. And, of course, the 2012 defense was way better than the 2017 defense. So the W-L differential is not really that relevant a statistic.