04-19-2018, 08:36 AM
This is it, folks. One regular-season match left. Cal hasn't been as consistent as we would have expected this year, but they are still very dangerous and have some excellent players. It's an early one, starting at 11:00am tomorrow.
Cal preview:
You expect Cal and UCLA to play close matches, and they did (UCLA won 4-3 back in February). You don't expect Cal to lose 4-0 to Arizona State, but that happened, too. You certainly don't expect Cal to lose to Washington, but the Huskies prevailed 5-2 last weekend for their first win over Cal since 2005. The point: Cal has been very much up and down, but at their best, they can still beat you.Â
Despite being ranked at the bottom of the top 50, Cal's individual players have had some success. They have three ranked players in the lineup: #34 Julia Rosenqvist (who plays #1); #41 Anna Bright (who plays #2); and #48 Olivia Hauger (who plays #3). #84 Karla Popovic is also in the lineup, but she hasn't played all spring; her ranking is a vestige of her very successful fall, much like Lord's was before she returned. If Popovic's absence was due to injury and she's ready to come back? Then this a very different Cal team.
Rosenqvist joined the team in January from Sweden and immediately made an impact, and has been holding down the #1 spot in the lineup for much of the spring season.Â
As a team, Cal's strengths have been at the top of the lineup, with Rosenqvist at 1, and then Bright and Hauger in whatever order at 2 and 3. Because the top three courts in singles will have their hands full, our likeliest path to victory is what it often is: get the doubles point and get wins from the back courts. (That's not to say those matches won't be close on the back courts. They should be. But we have an edge there.)
Since Rosenqvist at #1 has been important to their success, here's a quick comparison with Gordon of matches against common conference opponents:
* Both lost to Oregon's Tobita in straight sets.
* Gordon crushed USC's Smith, but Rosenqvist needed three sets to win
* Both beat UCLA's Shibahara, but Rosenqvist had a much easier time of it
* Gordon crushed ASU's John-Baptiste, who beat Rosenqvist in straights.
* Gordon was tied in the third set against UW's Fung, who beat Rosenqvist in straights.
* Gordon lost to WSU's Bayerlova in three, while Rosenqvist won handily.
What do I take from that? Rosenqvist is incredibly inconsistent, flashing the ability to beat Shibahara and Bayerlova solidly, but also struggling to beat (or losing to) players Gordon handled with ease, like Smith and John-Baptiste. In short, no result in this match would shock me.
Team comparisons:
* UCLA: Stanford won 4-3; Cal lost 4-3
* USC: both teams blanked USC
* ASU: Stanford won 4-0; Cal lost 4-0 (a bit misleading; Stanford trailed in a couple of abandoned matches, while Cal was leading in the remaining abandoned matches)
* Oregon: Stanford won 6-1; Cal won 5-2
* UW: Stanford won 4-2; Cal lost 5-2
* WSU: Stanford won 4-2; Cal won 4-3
Ultimately, we're at home, and I like us to win a close one.
How to follow:Â The match will be aired live on the Pac-12 Network (https://pac-12.com/womens-tennis/event/2...a-stanford), and you should still be able to follow along with live scoring at http://streamingtennis.com/Cardinal/index.html
Pac-12 Standings:
I included updated standings at the end of the UW/Wazzu thread, so I won't repeat them here. Long story short: Stanford clinches the regular season title and the #1 seed in the conference tournament with a win. Cal is likely locked into the #4 seed no matter the result of this match, but a win over Stanford would be a big feather in their cap when it comes to the NCAAs.
UCLA is locked into the 2 seed (unless Stanford loses to Cal and then loses a makeup match with Colorado, which likely won't be played if Stanford beats Cal). Right now, it looks like Stanford would play 8th-seeded Washington in the quarterfinals, then a semifinal against the Cal-Wazzu winner, and very likely UCLA out of the other half of the bracket in the final.Â
It's rivalry week, so while some of the matches are duds (ASU-Arizona, UCLA-USC) and others are meaningless (Colorado-Utah), the Stanford-Cal match will always be exciting, and Washington-Wazzu in Seattle promises to be a good one that could throw a wrench into tournament seeding.
ITA Rankings update:Â
April 17 team rankings:
Ranked: #20, up a couple from last week. We're running out of time to get back in that top 16, but all we can do at this point is beat who's on the schedule. (A quick note: the teams between 16 and 20 are very close, with Kansas on a 41.53-point average at 16 and Stanford at 39.84. Top 12 seems out of reach, but the 14-16 range seems doable.) Beating the Washington schools was worth about 5 points in our rolling average, so with a win over Cal in the regular season, then winning the Pac-12 tournament (no guarantee of anything vs. UCLA, though), and losses by some of the teams above us, that really should be enough, especially since all three Stanford losses would be to top 10 teams.
Teams to watch this week to determine if we'll get a Top 16 seed (unless 22nd-ranked UVA goes on a tear in the ACC tournament and upsets multiple higher-ranked teams, we shouldn't get caught from behind):
13. Texas Tech
14. UCLA
15. Illinois
16. Kansas
17. Miami
18. Florida State
19. Auburn
Past opponent watch:Â
# 2 Vanderbilt (L)
# 5 Texas (L)
# 9 Florida (L)
# 14 UCLA (W)Â
# 29 Oregon (W)
# 32 Arizona State (W)
# 40 Washington State (W)Â Â
# 47 USC (W)
# 49Â Washington (W)Â
NR TCU (W)
NR Utah
NR St. Mary's (W)
NR San Jose State (W)
NR UNLV (W)
NR HawaiiÂ
NR Arizona
NR UCSB
Future opponent watch:
# 42 Cal
Individual rankings:
All Stanford singles players are now ranked! That's more like it!
Singles:
# 22 Michaela Gordon (season high of #10)
# 45 Emily Arbuthnott (season high of #22)
# 64 Melissa Lord (season high was #7 preseason)
# 96 Janice Shin (rankings debut!)
# 100 Emma Higuchi (regular season debut; season high was #44 preseason)
# 102 Lampl (season high was #51 preseason)
Doubles:
# 3 Arbuthnott/Gordon (steady; season high of #1)
# 56 Lampl/Yee (season high of #54)
Cal preview:
You expect Cal and UCLA to play close matches, and they did (UCLA won 4-3 back in February). You don't expect Cal to lose 4-0 to Arizona State, but that happened, too. You certainly don't expect Cal to lose to Washington, but the Huskies prevailed 5-2 last weekend for their first win over Cal since 2005. The point: Cal has been very much up and down, but at their best, they can still beat you.Â
Despite being ranked at the bottom of the top 50, Cal's individual players have had some success. They have three ranked players in the lineup: #34 Julia Rosenqvist (who plays #1); #41 Anna Bright (who plays #2); and #48 Olivia Hauger (who plays #3). #84 Karla Popovic is also in the lineup, but she hasn't played all spring; her ranking is a vestige of her very successful fall, much like Lord's was before she returned. If Popovic's absence was due to injury and she's ready to come back? Then this a very different Cal team.
Rosenqvist joined the team in January from Sweden and immediately made an impact, and has been holding down the #1 spot in the lineup for much of the spring season.Â
As a team, Cal's strengths have been at the top of the lineup, with Rosenqvist at 1, and then Bright and Hauger in whatever order at 2 and 3. Because the top three courts in singles will have their hands full, our likeliest path to victory is what it often is: get the doubles point and get wins from the back courts. (That's not to say those matches won't be close on the back courts. They should be. But we have an edge there.)
Since Rosenqvist at #1 has been important to their success, here's a quick comparison with Gordon of matches against common conference opponents:
* Both lost to Oregon's Tobita in straight sets.
* Gordon crushed USC's Smith, but Rosenqvist needed three sets to win
* Both beat UCLA's Shibahara, but Rosenqvist had a much easier time of it
* Gordon crushed ASU's John-Baptiste, who beat Rosenqvist in straights.
* Gordon was tied in the third set against UW's Fung, who beat Rosenqvist in straights.
* Gordon lost to WSU's Bayerlova in three, while Rosenqvist won handily.
What do I take from that? Rosenqvist is incredibly inconsistent, flashing the ability to beat Shibahara and Bayerlova solidly, but also struggling to beat (or losing to) players Gordon handled with ease, like Smith and John-Baptiste. In short, no result in this match would shock me.
Team comparisons:
* UCLA: Stanford won 4-3; Cal lost 4-3
* USC: both teams blanked USC
* ASU: Stanford won 4-0; Cal lost 4-0 (a bit misleading; Stanford trailed in a couple of abandoned matches, while Cal was leading in the remaining abandoned matches)
* Oregon: Stanford won 6-1; Cal won 5-2
* UW: Stanford won 4-2; Cal lost 5-2
* WSU: Stanford won 4-2; Cal won 4-3
Ultimately, we're at home, and I like us to win a close one.
How to follow:Â The match will be aired live on the Pac-12 Network (https://pac-12.com/womens-tennis/event/2...a-stanford), and you should still be able to follow along with live scoring at http://streamingtennis.com/Cardinal/index.html
Pac-12 Standings:
I included updated standings at the end of the UW/Wazzu thread, so I won't repeat them here. Long story short: Stanford clinches the regular season title and the #1 seed in the conference tournament with a win. Cal is likely locked into the #4 seed no matter the result of this match, but a win over Stanford would be a big feather in their cap when it comes to the NCAAs.
UCLA is locked into the 2 seed (unless Stanford loses to Cal and then loses a makeup match with Colorado, which likely won't be played if Stanford beats Cal). Right now, it looks like Stanford would play 8th-seeded Washington in the quarterfinals, then a semifinal against the Cal-Wazzu winner, and very likely UCLA out of the other half of the bracket in the final.Â
It's rivalry week, so while some of the matches are duds (ASU-Arizona, UCLA-USC) and others are meaningless (Colorado-Utah), the Stanford-Cal match will always be exciting, and Washington-Wazzu in Seattle promises to be a good one that could throw a wrench into tournament seeding.
ITA Rankings update:Â
April 17 team rankings:
Ranked: #20, up a couple from last week. We're running out of time to get back in that top 16, but all we can do at this point is beat who's on the schedule. (A quick note: the teams between 16 and 20 are very close, with Kansas on a 41.53-point average at 16 and Stanford at 39.84. Top 12 seems out of reach, but the 14-16 range seems doable.) Beating the Washington schools was worth about 5 points in our rolling average, so with a win over Cal in the regular season, then winning the Pac-12 tournament (no guarantee of anything vs. UCLA, though), and losses by some of the teams above us, that really should be enough, especially since all three Stanford losses would be to top 10 teams.
Teams to watch this week to determine if we'll get a Top 16 seed (unless 22nd-ranked UVA goes on a tear in the ACC tournament and upsets multiple higher-ranked teams, we shouldn't get caught from behind):
13. Texas Tech
14. UCLA
15. Illinois
16. Kansas
17. Miami
18. Florida State
19. Auburn
Past opponent watch:Â
# 2 Vanderbilt (L)
# 5 Texas (L)
# 9 Florida (L)
# 14 UCLA (W)Â
# 29 Oregon (W)
# 32 Arizona State (W)
# 40 Washington State (W)Â Â
# 47 USC (W)
# 49Â Washington (W)Â
NR TCU (W)
NR Utah
NR St. Mary's (W)
NR San Jose State (W)
NR UNLV (W)
NR HawaiiÂ
NR Arizona
NR UCSB
Future opponent watch:
# 42 Cal
Individual rankings:
All Stanford singles players are now ranked! That's more like it!
Singles:
# 22 Michaela Gordon (season high of #10)
# 45 Emily Arbuthnott (season high of #22)
# 64 Melissa Lord (season high was #7 preseason)
# 96 Janice Shin (rankings debut!)
# 100 Emma Higuchi (regular season debut; season high was #44 preseason)
# 102 Lampl (season high was #51 preseason)
Doubles:
# 3 Arbuthnott/Gordon (steady; season high of #1)
# 56 Lampl/Yee (season high of #54)

