[Redrum]

A Wilner column built around Kal's Demetris Robertson and his truncated California football vacation...and what it means for P12 recruiting football talent nationwide.  It could use some better statistics to bolster his thesis, but at least Stanford gets a kind of sideways nod for succeeding where others fail.  He does fail to explore that opening, choosing to frame academics as a requirement imposed on Stanford  rather than see it as an ability and attraction Stanford has that many other P12 schools can't leverage.

http://mercurynews.ca.newsmemory.com/pub...=040c01d84

[Redrum]

A Wilner column built around Kal's Demetris Robertson and his truncated California football vacation...and what it means for P12 recruiting football talent nationwide.  It could use some better statistics to bolster his thesis, but at least Stanford gets a kind of sideways nod for succeeding where others fail.  He does fail to explore that opening, choosing to frame academics as a requirement imposed on Stanford  rather than see it as an ability and attraction Stanford has that many other P12 schools can't leverage.

http://mercurynews.ca.newsmemory.com/pub...=040c01d84

[lex24]

Not quite sure what you mean. The admissions requirement is imposed on Stanford football. And it does make it more difficult by greatly limiting the pool. So they must recruit nationally. 

What Wilner, IMO, doesn’t explore is why Stanford doesn’t have as big of a “cultural “ issue - losing players from other regions because they don’t in. Sure they occasionally lose one - Simone Lund being an example. But it doesn’t appear to be much of a problem. I’d guess two main reasons - first, the players recruited have a little broader prospective. Obviously football still is a major focus. Maybe just not the only major focus. Second the campus itself is much more geographically diverse than a State University.

[lex24]

Not quite sure what you mean. The admissions requirement is imposed on Stanford football. And it does make it more difficult by greatly limiting the pool. So they must recruit nationally. 

What Wilner, IMO, doesn’t explore is why Stanford doesn’t have as big of a “cultural “ issue - losing players from other regions because they don’t in. Sure they occasionally lose one - Simone Lund being an example. But it doesn’t appear to be much of a problem. I’d guess two main reasons - first, the players recruited have a little broader prospective. Obviously football still is a major focus. Maybe just not the only major focus. Second the campus itself is much more geographically diverse than a State University.

[OutsiderFan]

Wilner needs to stick to what he knows and not write wildly speculative and poorly researched articles as click-bait.  He knows the business side of the Pac-12 versus the rest of the country.  He does a decent job assessing the strengths and weaknesses of rosters and projecting how teams will perform.

These are facts:

1. Robertson wanted to go to Stanford and choose Cal as a backup plan.
2. He signed up to play for a coach, style, and staff that no longer is there.
3. He was consistently injured and well could have thought a change of scenery was needed.
4. He deleted photos of his former girlfriend off his social media.
5. Many, many players transferred out of Cal after the Dykes departure, regardless of where they went to high school.
6. Stanford recruits nationally. USC recruits Nationally. Oregon does too, and dominated with many recruits from TX and FL under Kelly.
7. There are also west coast recruits who go east and get home sick.

To claim recruiting out of state athletes is somehow perilous, is just plain stupid. Every example has to be viewed as an individual case, and we don't have near enough data to conclude recruiting out of state athletes is somehow a cautionary tale because of Demitris Robertson.  Just a massively intellectually lazy article by Wilner.

[OutsiderFan]

Wilner needs to stick to what he knows and not write wildly speculative and poorly researched articles as click-bait.  He knows the business side of the Pac-12 versus the rest of the country.  He does a decent job assessing the strengths and weaknesses of rosters and projecting how teams will perform.

These are facts:

1. Robertson wanted to go to Stanford and choose Cal as a backup plan.
2. He signed up to play for a coach, style, and staff that no longer is there.
3. He was consistently injured and well could have thought a change of scenery was needed.
4. He deleted photos of his former girlfriend off his social media.
5. Many, many players transferred out of Cal after the Dykes departure, regardless of where they went to high school.
6. Stanford recruits nationally. USC recruits Nationally. Oregon does too, and dominated with many recruits from TX and FL under Kelly.
7. There are also west coast recruits who go east and get home sick.

To claim recruiting out of state athletes is somehow perilous, is just plain stupid. Every example has to be viewed as an individual case, and we don't have near enough data to conclude recruiting out of state athletes is somehow a cautionary tale because of Demitris Robertson.  Just a massively intellectually lazy article by Wilner.

[Goose]

Wilner needs to stick to what he knows and not write wildly speculative and poorly researched articles as click-bait.  He knows the business side of the Pac-12 versus the rest of the country.  He does a decent job assessing the strengths and weaknesses of rosters and projecting how teams will perform.

These are facts:

1. Robertson wanted to go to Stanford and choose Cal as a backup plan.
2. He signed up to play for a coach, style, and staff that no longer is there.
3. He was consistently injured and well could have thought a change of scenery was needed.
4. He deleted photos of his former girlfriend off his social media.
5. Many, many players transferred out of Cal after the Dykes departure, regardless of where they went to high school.
6. Stanford recruits nationally. USC recruits Nationally. Oregon does too, and dominated with many recruits from TX and FL under Kelly.
7. There are also west coast recruits who go east and get home sick.

To claim recruiting out of state athletes is somehow perilous, is just plain stupid. Every example has to be viewed as an individual case, and we don't have near enough data to conclude recruiting out of state athletes is somehow a cautionary tale because of Demitris Robertson.  Just a massively intellectually lazy article by Wilner.

Totally agree. Attempting to generalize one players actions based on assumed motives into a general rule is very questionable. Also, as you point out, there are "bulk" counter-examples. Nobody really knows why Robertson left UCB except Robertson. Assigning motives with no additional data is at best speculation.

[Goose]

Wilner needs to stick to what he knows and not write wildly speculative and poorly researched articles as click-bait.  He knows the business side of the Pac-12 versus the rest of the country.  He does a decent job assessing the strengths and weaknesses of rosters and projecting how teams will perform.

These are facts:

1. Robertson wanted to go to Stanford and choose Cal as a backup plan.
2. He signed up to play for a coach, style, and staff that no longer is there.
3. He was consistently injured and well could have thought a change of scenery was needed.
4. He deleted photos of his former girlfriend off his social media.
5. Many, many players transferred out of Cal after the Dykes departure, regardless of where they went to high school.
6. Stanford recruits nationally. USC recruits Nationally. Oregon does too, and dominated with many recruits from TX and FL under Kelly.
7. There are also west coast recruits who go east and get home sick.

To claim recruiting out of state athletes is somehow perilous, is just plain stupid. Every example has to be viewed as an individual case, and we don't have near enough data to conclude recruiting out of state athletes is somehow a cautionary tale because of Demitris Robertson.  Just a massively intellectually lazy article by Wilner.

Totally agree. Attempting to generalize one players actions based on assumed motives into a general rule is very questionable. Also, as you point out, there are "bulk" counter-examples. Nobody really knows why Robertson left UCB except Robertson. Assigning motives with no additional data is at best speculation.

[Phogge]

Hey Bob, remembering that I’m a Gator please explain “geographic diversity.”

[Phogge]

Hey Bob, remembering that I’m a Gator please explain “geographic diversity.”

[winflop]

I'm shocked, I tell you, totally shocked to find that Wilner published a poorly-researched piece of clickbait...

[winflop]

I'm shocked, I tell you, totally shocked to find that Wilner published a poorly-researched piece of clickbait...

[CompSci87]

This one wasn't just online clickbait, but appeared in the paper SJ Merc too. So the sports editor can share some blame for how dumb it was. I agree with OF's take on the article too.

[CompSci87]

This one wasn't just online clickbait, but appeared in the paper SJ Merc too. So the sports editor can share some blame for how dumb it was. I agree with OF's take on the article too.

[CTcard]

A Wilner column built around Kal's Demetris Robertson and his truncated California football vacation...and what it means for P12 recruiting football talent nationwide.  It could use some better statistics to bolster his thesis, but at least Stanford gets a kind of sideways nod for succeeding where others fail.  He does fail to explore that opening, choosing to frame academics as a requirement imposed on Stanford  rather than see it as an ability and attraction Stanford has that many other P12 schools can't leverage.

http://mercurynews.ca.newsmemory.com/pub...=040c01d84

Agree with many of these comments.

First, Stanford's academic requirements, and academic status generally, is both a difficult and a great opportunity.
Yes, only a limited number of top football players can get admitted, but in addition there is actually a reason to choose Stanford even if you are not emerging from the local fan base. Few schools have that.
That tends to put both a floor and a ceiling on Stanford recruiting.

Secondly, Wilner is doing one of his typical things in claiming a news item raises a question, and later on just assuming that question is answered in the way that creates a story he wants to write. He never bothers with the step of establishing his premise is true.

Now there might be something to the idea. Maybe kids from far away don't pan out as well. Maybe there is a point to a recruiting win that not only gets you a player but denies one to your opponent. But, by themselves, the numbers he cites don't seem to me to be overly noteworthy.

"In his last two seasons in Berkeley, Dykes signed 15 players from outside the conference footprint...
Of those, only two are currently with the program and could be considered impact players ...
A fewhave shown promise, many are likely to be career role players, and several have left the program."
Well, 15 (out of 56 as it turns out) over two years does seem a little high for a Pac 12 team, though only a little and really I don't know. It wouldn't have been too hard to figure out just where that stands, but that appears to be too much work.
Whether that hit rate is decent or not depends on the details, and I wonder just how many is "several" who have left the program?



Then there is the warning about Oregon,
"First under Willie Taggart and now under Mario Cristobal, Oregon is casting an eye east for more than just a handful of players each year.
With the 2017-18 recruiting classes and the still-forming ’19 class, the Ducks have corralled more than a dozen prospects from the east and south."

What I see is these recruit from the east and south at Oregon (apparently Texas qualifies):
2019 - 3  
2018 - 5
2017 - 8 (a pile from Florida here, I think Taggart brought USF recruting)
---------Taggart's arrival---------------
2016 - 4
2015 - 6
2014 - 6
2013 - 5

Outside of a bunch of Florida guys Taggart brought with him from USF, I just don't see the big increase in reliance upon recruits from the east and south under Taggart and Cristobal.


------------
I do think it would be interesting to see a serious write up on whether football recruits pan out better when staying close to home or not; including issues like: does it matter which region they come from, or end up at, are there exceptions at places that notably recruit nationally (Stanford, und, BC, etc.), if so why.

But, of course we didn't get that.

--------------
Despite all of my criticisms above, I still appreciate that Wilner actually makes an effort to write about college sports and Bay Area college sports. Really nobody else at the major newspapers does.

[CTcard]

A Wilner column built around Kal's Demetris Robertson and his truncated California football vacation...and what it means for P12 recruiting football talent nationwide.  It could use some better statistics to bolster his thesis, but at least Stanford gets a kind of sideways nod for succeeding where others fail.  He does fail to explore that opening, choosing to frame academics as a requirement imposed on Stanford  rather than see it as an ability and attraction Stanford has that many other P12 schools can't leverage.

http://mercurynews.ca.newsmemory.com/pub...=040c01d84

Agree with many of these comments.

First, Stanford's academic requirements, and academic status generally, is both a difficult and a great opportunity.
Yes, only a limited number of top football players can get admitted, but in addition there is actually a reason to choose Stanford even if you are not emerging from the local fan base. Few schools have that.
That tends to put both a floor and a ceiling on Stanford recruiting.

Secondly, Wilner is doing one of his typical things in claiming a news item raises a question, and later on just assuming that question is answered in the way that creates a story he wants to write. He never bothers with the step of establishing his premise is true.

Now there might be something to the idea. Maybe kids from far away don't pan out as well. Maybe there is a point to a recruiting win that not only gets you a player but denies one to your opponent. But, by themselves, the numbers he cites don't seem to me to be overly noteworthy.

"In his last two seasons in Berkeley, Dykes signed 15 players from outside the conference footprint...
Of those, only two are currently with the program and could be considered impact players ...
A fewhave shown promise, many are likely to be career role players, and several have left the program."
Well, 15 (out of 56 as it turns out) over two years does seem a little high for a Pac 12 team, though only a little and really I don't know. It wouldn't have been too hard to figure out just where that stands, but that appears to be too much work.
Whether that hit rate is decent or not depends on the details, and I wonder just how many is "several" who have left the program?



Then there is the warning about Oregon,
"First under Willie Taggart and now under Mario Cristobal, Oregon is casting an eye east for more than just a handful of players each year.
With the 2017-18 recruiting classes and the still-forming ’19 class, the Ducks have corralled more than a dozen prospects from the east and south."

What I see is these recruit from the east and south at Oregon (apparently Texas qualifies):
2019 - 3  
2018 - 5
2017 - 8 (a pile from Florida here, I think Taggart brought USF recruting)
---------Taggart's arrival---------------
2016 - 4
2015 - 6
2014 - 6
2013 - 5

Outside of a bunch of Florida guys Taggart brought with him from USF, I just don't see the big increase in reliance upon recruits from the east and south under Taggart and Cristobal.


------------
I do think it would be interesting to see a serious write up on whether football recruits pan out better when staying close to home or not; including issues like: does it matter which region they come from, or end up at, are there exceptions at places that notably recruit nationally (Stanford, und, BC, etc.), if so why.

But, of course we didn't get that.

--------------
Despite all of my criticisms above, I still appreciate that Wilner actually makes an effort to write about college sports and Bay Area college sports. Really nobody else at the major newspapers does.

[BostonCard]

Despite all of my criticisms above, I still appreciate that Wilner actually makes an effort to write about college sports and Bay Area college sports. Really nobody else at the major newspapers does.

The question is whether bad takes on college sports are worse than no takes at all.

Like OF, Willner generally has good sources and decent insight into the business of the Pac-12 and the television deals.  He does not have particulalry good insight into recruiting or actual collegiate sports.

BC

[BostonCard]

Despite all of my criticisms above, I still appreciate that Wilner actually makes an effort to write about college sports and Bay Area college sports. Really nobody else at the major newspapers does.

The question is whether bad takes on college sports are worse than no takes at all.

Like OF, Willner generally has good sources and decent insight into the business of the Pac-12 and the television deals.  He does not have particulalry good insight into recruiting or actual collegiate sports.

BC

[BobK]

Marin County Phogge lol

[BobK]

Marin County Phogge lol

[Snorlax94]

I didn’t think there was anything necessarily wrong with the article. It does generalize, but I don’t think it does so in an irresponsible or “click bait” sort of way.

I think a less incendiary way he could’ve framed his point would be to point out how difficult it can be for kids to move across the country. I remember when I moved to the bay area, it was an adjustment, but one that I looked forward to. I remember a lot of my classmates, and I recall several specifically from more rural areas, like the farmlands in central California, were more home sick. Several worried about their families back home who were struggling economically, and they felt guilty about being students and investing in their future when they thought they could help their families immediately.

 I think one advantage Stanford has is that being around kids with similar values and goals can feel like home even if they’re moving far away. I’ve seen a lot of recruits talk about how excited they were to meet other kids like them. Which is to say, a bright, ambitious student in Texas or Georgia may feel more belonging and more in common with other Stanford students than back home, even if the food is different, the accents are different, and the economies are different.  I remember Andrew Luck saying how he missed Stanford after he went to the NFL, even though Indianapolis is probably more like his home state of Texas than the bay area. 

Wilner also didn’t mention the pretty great weather which much of the pac 12 enjoys and which permits year-round training and enjoyment of the outdoors without floods, or brutal humidity, or alligators.

But Wilner did call the schedule perfectly last year. He seems to write proportionately more about TV contracts and scheduling and conferences than about X’s and O’s, but I think he is a close, experienced observer and he raises interesting points.

In terms of a click bait test, do I think he is trying to raise an interesting point in a limited amount of space under a deadline, or do I think he is intentionally writing a bunch of BS just to get people pissed off and to get attention? I think he is a sincere writer, and that it’s the former.

I should probably disclose that my wife previously worked at the Mercury News, and I know some remaining staff members (after numerous layoffs), though I have never met Wilner.

[Snorlax94]

I didn’t think there was anything necessarily wrong with the article. It does generalize, but I don’t think it does so in an irresponsible or “click bait” sort of way.

I think a less incendiary way he could’ve framed his point would be to point out how difficult it can be for kids to move across the country. I remember when I moved to the bay area, it was an adjustment, but one that I looked forward to. I remember a lot of my classmates, and I recall several specifically from more rural areas, like the farmlands in central California, were more home sick. Several worried about their families back home who were struggling economically, and they felt guilty about being students and investing in their future when they thought they could help their families immediately.

 I think one advantage Stanford has is that being around kids with similar values and goals can feel like home even if they’re moving far away. I’ve seen a lot of recruits talk about how excited they were to meet other kids like them. Which is to say, a bright, ambitious student in Texas or Georgia may feel more belonging and more in common with other Stanford students than back home, even if the food is different, the accents are different, and the economies are different.  I remember Andrew Luck saying how he missed Stanford after he went to the NFL, even though Indianapolis is probably more like his home state of Texas than the bay area. 

Wilner also didn’t mention the pretty great weather which much of the pac 12 enjoys and which permits year-round training and enjoyment of the outdoors without floods, or brutal humidity, or alligators.

But Wilner did call the schedule perfectly last year. He seems to write proportionately more about TV contracts and scheduling and conferences than about X’s and O’s, but I think he is a close, experienced observer and he raises interesting points.

In terms of a click bait test, do I think he is trying to raise an interesting point in a limited amount of space under a deadline, or do I think he is intentionally writing a bunch of BS just to get people pissed off and to get attention? I think he is a sincere writer, and that it’s the former.

I should probably disclose that my wife previously worked at the Mercury News, and I know some remaining staff members (after numerous layoffs), though I have never met Wilner.

[lex24]

Hey Bob, remembering that I’m a Gator please explain “geographic diversity.”

Players from Red Blue and Purple states ......

[lex24]

Hey Bob, remembering that I’m a Gator please explain “geographic diversity.”

Players from Red Blue and Purple states ......

[martyup]

The Cardboard has put forth far more thought and effort on this topic than Wilner.

[martyup]

The Cardboard has put forth far more thought and effort on this topic than Wilner.