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05-18-2019, 08:14 PM
(This post was last modified: 05-18-2019, 08:36 PM by
ColoradoTree.)
Final thoughts:
1. Welcome to the postseason indeed, Sara Choy. After a couple of spot starts in the dual season that didn't engender a ton of confidence, she comes in against a great player in Sanford (who played #2 singles last year for the #1 team in the country, let's not forget), wins a tough first set before steamrolling her in the second set. I can't say enough about her performance, given the stakes.
2. Depth matters, ladies and gentlemen. Sure, only six play singles on a given night, but there's a reason you have eight scholarships. And we needed every last one today.
3. Winning doubles against that team? Sure, we ended up getting four singles wins anyway, but this was a great example of how important that doubles point is. How would we all have felt if we were down 0-1 and we lost three first sets?
4. That was a big time win from Lord to put pressure on UNC and give a boost to the rest of our team, and Choy delivering a surprise win on #6 only heightened that pressure (and that boost).
5. A really frustrating loss from Lampl for her first dual match loss of the year. She had it, but her ever-inconsistent serve failed her in the end, and she dropped that second set that would have given Stanford a 4-0 win. But an undefeated dual season record doesn't matter. Only the title matters, and maybe this stokes the fire for tomorrow. (Though Lampl doesn't need help finding sufficient passion to play, obviously.)
6. I'm glad Shin has bounced back from some inconsistent play and seems to be hitting her stride at the best possible time.
7. MICHAELA GORDON, folks. I am pumped about that win. Your ace beating their ace is always the best feeling, and for her to come back from a set down against a Top 5 player on this stage? That's a level we haven't seen from Michaela yet. She's beaten top players, yes. But we didn't win last year's title on the strength of a lot of wins at the #1 singles position. She delivered in a big, big moment today, and that makes me excited for her playing Jokic tomorrow.
8. Last year, we won the title 4-3 against a team we'd lost to by a 7-0 score in the regular season. Tomorrow, we play a team that beat us 4-3 in the regular season. So, why not us?
In doubles, Georgia is a decent team, but not great. Much like we are, they're used to dropping the doubles point in big matches but coming back and getting 4 from singles. But I like our chances in doubles tomorrow.
In singles (with UTR differential in parentheses):
1. #24 Gordon vs. #2 Katarina Jokic (Jokic by 0.16)
2. #29 Lord vs. #19 Marta Gonzalez (Lord by 0.10)
3. #66 Lampl vs. #69 Lourdes Carle (Lampl by 0.07)
4. #44 Arbuthnott vs. #72 Vivian Wolff (Wolff by 0.23)
5. #108 Shin vs. Eleni Christofi (Christofi by 0.2)
6. #107 Higuchi or #119 Choy vs. #122 Meg Kowalski (Kowalski by 0.63 over Higuchi and 0.87 over Choy)
At Indoor Nationals, like oldalum noted, we won doubles, but singles didn't go our way. At #1, Gordon lost 4-6, 6-1, 6-3. At #2, Lord was competitive but then just got bulldozed in the second set and seemed very much out of sorts, 7-5, 6-2. At #3, Lampl started slow but turned on the gas, winning 3-6, 6-3, 6-0. At #4, Wolff absolutely crushed Arbuthnott, 6-2, 6-2. At #5, Shin had little trouble with Christofi, 6-3, 6-2. And at #6, Higuchi had no answers for Kowalski, falling 6-1, 6-1.
So, if we win doubles again, which match or matches do we turn around? My bet is that Lord finds that NCAA level she's reached before, and she doesn't lose again. I like the odds of Lampl turning her disappointment today into fuel for tomorrow, and she takes care of Carle again. I hope Arbuthnott gets some sleep, because we need her in classic fighting-for-every-point form tomorrow. I hope we see a similarly dominant performance from Shin against Christofi, but I'm nervous about that. And if it's Higuchi tomorrow, she needs an entirely different game plan against Kowalski, so maybe it's for the best if we get Choy in there against her to see if she can throw Kowalski for a loop.
I will never pick this team to lose, so I'll say 4-2 Stanford. We take doubles and we get singles wins from #2, #3, and #5. Gordon is locked in a tight match when we clinch, but we drop #4 and #6. Lord got her heroic clinch last year, so it would be kind for fate to allow Lampl that glory tomorrow. Goodness knows she deserves it.
FWIW, Slam.tennis says Georgia is 63% to win tomorrow.