(11-04-2019, 10:40 AM)BostonCard Wrote: I don't know, the fact that we are only 3 point favorites (albeit on the road) against the last place team in the South kind of tells us a bit about what the public thinks of Stanford. A good team should be able to be at least a touchdown favorite against the Buffs.
I don't think much of the public is paying much attention to either Stanford or Colorado. Certainly not enough to know the sources of each teams inconsistencies. And whatever Stanford is at the moment, they certainly they don't qualify as a good team - certainly by Stanford's own recent past as comparison - so that part isn't in play.
My impression is that Stanford has been much more inconsistent this year than usual. The good parts make me wonder if a healthy version of Stanford 2019 could have been a good team, but the bad parts have been rather horrendous.
As to the source ...
Home/Road:
Stanford has played three road games, stunk in two and played mostly well until the fourth quarter collapse at Corvalis.
Stanford has played five home games, one was their worst performance of the year (imo), one terrible offense but good defense, and the other three were at least pretty good.
QB play/health:
On the other hand, Stanford's four losses were their four worst QB performances of the year and four wins were their four best QB performances. Three of the bad and three of the good were far from the mean. One of the poorer performances ($C) and one of the better (Northwestern) were more middling.
While it is hard to assign cause and effect, my own take is that most of Stanford's inconsistency leading to wins vs losses has been due to QB play.
Defense:
That doesn't really address the inconsistent defense, but those haven't been quite as closely tied to win/loss. Stanford's defense played well in the loss to Oregon and not terrible for most of the UCLA game. On the other hand the defense was quite poor vs OSU (particularly the fourth quarter) and UA (with some redemption in the fourth quarter).
Colorado
Colorado on the other hand seems to have their good/bad much more closely tied to home/away. They don't seem to have put up any stinkers in their four home and one pseudo-neutral site games. Their offense has been poor in three of four road games, but never atrocious at home (their worst home game offense was in an OT loss to Air Force, which is a decent team with a pretty good defense).
It's tough to be sure what either team will bring in one particular game. My guess would be lots of offense and scoring - much more like our Arizona game than Northwestern. But I have been consistently horrible in the pick'em game.