[ColoradoTree]

The full spring schedule was announced, so here it is ( https://gostanford.com/sports/womens-tennis/schedule), with an annotated version below, followed by some analysis on the relative strength of schedule and which dates to circle as benchmarks for how good our team is this year.  Because the first team rankings of the year don't come out until January 8, the rankings used are last year's final team rankings. 

Schedule: 

* Jan. 17-19: Freeman Memorial Championships, Las Vegas, NV 

* Jan. 25: vs. #53 South Florida (ITA Kick-Off Weekend)
* Jan. 26: vs. #36 Washington State or #45 Denver (ITA Kick-Off Weekend)   

* Jan. 30: vs. Hawaii

* Feb. 7-10: ITA National Indoor Championships (Chicago, IL) (3 matches against other Kick-Off winners, presuming we qualify; 4 if we make the final)

* Feb. 14: vs. U.C. Davis

* Feb. 21: at #70 TCU (in Austin, TX)
* Feb. 22: at  #9 Texas
  
* Mar. 6: vs. #16 USC
* Mar. 7: vs. #7 UCLA

* Mar. 13: vs. Oregon

* Mar. 22: vs. Harvard

* Mar. 25: vs. #57 UC Santa Barbara  

* Mar. 27: at #49 Arizona
* Mar. 28: at #34 Arizona State

* Apr. 3: at #10 Washington
* Apr. 4: at #36 Washington State

* Apr. 10: vs. #74 Colorado
* April 12: vs. #44 Utah

* Apr. 17: vs. #18 Cal

* Apr. 22-25: Pac-12 Championships, Ojai, CA

That's 18 regular season matches scheduled, with a near-certainty of at least three more at Indoor Nationals.  That total is thus pretty low for Stanford (last year was 19, and it was 20 the year before that), but nearly certain to go to 21 or 22; the total is very low compared to other top teams.  

Analysis:

January tournaments

The Freeman is something of a holdover from the fall season, an individual tournament right before team play starts. The NCTC Classic is off the schedule for some reason, but as long as that means a full presence at the Freeman, that's fine.   
 
Regular season schedule 

This is the softest and lightest non-conference schedule I can recall seeing Stanford play. Last year, we dropped Florida and Pepperdine, and this year, we drop Vanderbilt. The only good non-conference team we play is Texas. The end-of-season rankings go through 75, and our non-conference slate has three teams that are entirely unranked, three teams that are ranked outside the top 30, and just the one good team.   

Now, a lot of that goes away with a deep run at Indoor Nationals, where you'll grab some wins against some top teams. But let's say you go 1-2 or 2-1 there. You just don't have the ammunition for a top 8 ranking unless you sweep the Pac-12 (which, given how good both UCLA and Cal look, is hardly a safe bet) and the Pac-12 is as impressive overall as it was last year. This schedule is a brobdingnagian bet on success at Indoor Nationals and sweeping the Pac-12, which doesn't feel at all certain after the fall season and recognizing what we lost from last year. If we win out? We'll be at or near the top, and we'll be fine. But the margin for error with this schedule is very, very thin. UCLA, Cal, and USC all look much-improved. Say we lose close matches to those three and have a middling performance at Indoor Nationals. No chance we're a top 8 seed, and I'd argue we wouldn't even have the resume for a top 16 seed, either. 

Recall that we need 9 good wins for ranking purposes. On this schedule, I barely see 9 good matches. Texas, UCLA, USC, Cal, and Washington make 5. We'll get at least one good match at Pac-12s, and probably two depending on how the tournament shakes out, so that's 6-7. And if we make the finals at Indoor Nationals, those 4 matches get us to 10-11. So, like I said, there's no margin for error here. We need to win nearly every one of those matches to have the resume for a top 8 seed. I just don't understand why this schedule is so light. 

Remember that broad strength of schedule--i.e., playing a bunch of teams that are in the top 50--doesn't get you to the top. Beating top 20 teams is what gets you there. And losing to top 10 teams doesn't really hurt you in the rankings formula, so you might as well schedule as many as you can. 
 
Indoor Nationals

Indoor Nationals is in Chicago this year, so Illinois is automatically there as the host. The other 15 spots will be filled by 15 regional winners, with hosting duties determined off last year's final rankings. So, you're likely to play at least 2 top 10 teams. It's a single elimination tournament that's seeded by current ranking with a draw to determine each seeded team's first-round opponent, so you could get the #9 team, a team in the 20s who pulled an upset to get there, or Washington. I'd rather get a tougher draw, since the whole point of the tournament is to play top teams for ranking purposes. There is a consolation draw, and each team is guaranteed three matches, but you'll get four if you make the final of the main draw (they stop the consolation draw after each team has 3 matches).

Expect #1 Stanford, #2 Georgia, #3 UNC, #4 Duke, #6 Pepperdine, and #7 UCLA to sail through their regions, as they're not terribly competitive. #5 South Carolina could be surprised by Georgia Tech in that regional. But there are risks for each of the other host teams--#8 Vanderbilt has #28 Northwestern looming, #9 Texas gets a couple of Top 30 teams in LSU and Texas Tech, #10 Washington has to fend off #16 USC (and I'd give USC the edge, frankly), with two other good teams in #27 Kentucky and #33 Princeton looming. #11 N.C. State has #24 Florida. #12 Oklahoma State has #23 Wake Forest and #25 Ohio State. #14 Michigan has to deal with #19 UCF. The toughest two regions look to be in Lawrence (#13 Kansas hosts #18 Cal, #21 UVA, and #22 Tennesee) and Tallahasee (#15 Florida State has #17 Texas A&M and #20 Miami). 

My annual special note on team rankings

The first several team rankings of the year are done by committee, and Stanford will do very well there, as those in the tennis world generally agree that Stanford is one of the top teams.  But at some point in mid- to late-February, the rankings switch over to an algorithm, and Stanford will likely drop substantially when that switch happens. In the past, that drop was substantial, because (1) we play a lighter schedule, period, (2) we didn't participate in the ITA Kick-off weekend, where you're guaranteed two matches against good opponents and where you can qualify for the Indoor Team Championships in February, where you'll get at least a couple more, and (3) we have some early-season matches against weaker, but local, teams.  This year, the second reason no longer exists, but the first and third still do, so this will likely still happen (unless we win Indoor Nationals), but the drop won't be as precipitous. And it could carry over to the NCAA tournament, where we'll be underseeded, and then overperform our seed.  Do not fret. 'Twas ever thus.

[ColoradoTree]

The full spring schedule was announced, so here it is ( https://gostanford.com/sports/womens-tennis/schedule), with an annotated version below, followed by some analysis on the relative strength of schedule and which dates to circle as benchmarks for how good our team is this year.  Because the first team rankings of the year don't come out until January 8, the rankings used are last year's final team rankings. 

Schedule: 

* Jan. 17-19: Freeman Memorial Championships, Las Vegas, NV 

* Jan. 25: vs. #53 South Florida (ITA Kick-Off Weekend)
* Jan. 26: vs. #36 Washington State or #45 Denver (ITA Kick-Off Weekend)   

* Jan. 30: vs. Hawaii

* Feb. 7-10: ITA National Indoor Championships (Chicago, IL) (3 matches against other Kick-Off winners, presuming we qualify; 4 if we make the final)

* Feb. 14: vs. U.C. Davis

* Feb. 21: at #70 TCU (in Austin, TX)
* Feb. 22: at  #9 Texas
  
* Mar. 6: vs. #16 USC
* Mar. 7: vs. #7 UCLA

* Mar. 13: vs. Oregon

* Mar. 22: vs. Harvard

* Mar. 25: vs. #57 UC Santa Barbara  

* Mar. 27: at #49 Arizona
* Mar. 28: at #34 Arizona State

* Apr. 3: at #10 Washington
* Apr. 4: at #36 Washington State

* Apr. 10: vs. #74 Colorado
* April 12: vs. #44 Utah

* Apr. 17: vs. #18 Cal

* Apr. 22-25: Pac-12 Championships, Ojai, CA

That's 18 regular season matches scheduled, with a near-certainty of at least three more at Indoor Nationals.  That total is thus pretty low for Stanford (last year was 19, and it was 20 the year before that), but nearly certain to go to 21 or 22; the total is very low compared to other top teams.  

Analysis:

January tournaments

The Freeman is something of a holdover from the fall season, an individual tournament right before team play starts. The NCTC Classic is off the schedule for some reason, but as long as that means a full presence at the Freeman, that's fine.   
 
Regular season schedule 

This is the softest and lightest non-conference schedule I can recall seeing Stanford play. Last year, we dropped Florida and Pepperdine, and this year, we drop Vanderbilt. The only good non-conference team we play is Texas. The end-of-season rankings go through 75, and our non-conference slate has three teams that are entirely unranked, three teams that are ranked outside the top 30, and just the one good team.   

Now, a lot of that goes away with a deep run at Indoor Nationals, where you'll grab some wins against some top teams. But let's say you go 1-2 or 2-1 there. You just don't have the ammunition for a top 8 ranking unless you sweep the Pac-12 (which, given how good both UCLA and Cal look, is hardly a safe bet) and the Pac-12 is as impressive overall as it was last year. This schedule is a brobdingnagian bet on success at Indoor Nationals and sweeping the Pac-12, which doesn't feel at all certain after the fall season and recognizing what we lost from last year. If we win out? We'll be at or near the top, and we'll be fine. But the margin for error with this schedule is very, very thin. UCLA, Cal, and USC all look much-improved. Say we lose close matches to those three and have a middling performance at Indoor Nationals. No chance we're a top 8 seed, and I'd argue we wouldn't even have the resume for a top 16 seed, either. 

Recall that we need 9 good wins for ranking purposes. On this schedule, I barely see 9 good matches. Texas, UCLA, USC, Cal, and Washington make 5. We'll get at least one good match at Pac-12s, and probably two depending on how the tournament shakes out, so that's 6-7. And if we make the finals at Indoor Nationals, those 4 matches get us to 10-11. So, like I said, there's no margin for error here. We need to win nearly every one of those matches to have the resume for a top 8 seed. I just don't understand why this schedule is so light. 

Remember that broad strength of schedule--i.e., playing a bunch of teams that are in the top 50--doesn't get you to the top. Beating top 20 teams is what gets you there. And losing to top 10 teams doesn't really hurt you in the rankings formula, so you might as well schedule as many as you can. 
 
Indoor Nationals

Indoor Nationals is in Chicago this year, so Illinois is automatically there as the host. The other 15 spots will be filled by 15 regional winners, with hosting duties determined off last year's final rankings. So, you're likely to play at least 2 top 10 teams. It's a single elimination tournament that's seeded by current ranking with a draw to determine each seeded team's first-round opponent, so you could get the #9 team, a team in the 20s who pulled an upset to get there, or Washington. I'd rather get a tougher draw, since the whole point of the tournament is to play top teams for ranking purposes. There is a consolation draw, and each team is guaranteed three matches, but you'll get four if you make the final of the main draw (they stop the consolation draw after each team has 3 matches).

Expect #1 Stanford, #2 Georgia, #3 UNC, #4 Duke, #6 Pepperdine, and #7 UCLA to sail through their regions, as they're not terribly competitive. #5 South Carolina could be surprised by Georgia Tech in that regional. But there are risks for each of the other host teams--#8 Vanderbilt has #28 Northwestern looming, #9 Texas gets a couple of Top 30 teams in LSU and Texas Tech, #10 Washington has to fend off #16 USC (and I'd give USC the edge, frankly), with two other good teams in #27 Kentucky and #33 Princeton looming. #11 N.C. State has #24 Florida. #12 Oklahoma State has #23 Wake Forest and #25 Ohio State. #14 Michigan has to deal with #19 UCF. The toughest two regions look to be in Lawrence (#13 Kansas hosts #18 Cal, #21 UVA, and #22 Tennesee) and Tallahasee (#15 Florida State has #17 Texas A&M and #20 Miami). 

My annual special note on team rankings

The first several team rankings of the year are done by committee, and Stanford will do very well there, as those in the tennis world generally agree that Stanford is one of the top teams.  But at some point in mid- to late-February, the rankings switch over to an algorithm, and Stanford will likely drop substantially when that switch happens. In the past, that drop was substantial, because (1) we play a lighter schedule, period, (2) we didn't participate in the ITA Kick-off weekend, where you're guaranteed two matches against good opponents and where you can qualify for the Indoor Team Championships in February, where you'll get at least a couple more, and (3) we have some early-season matches against weaker, but local, teams.  This year, the second reason no longer exists, but the first and third still do, so this will likely still happen (unless we win Indoor Nationals), but the drop won't be as precipitous. And it could carry over to the NCAA tournament, where we'll be underseeded, and then overperform our seed.  Do not fret. 'Twas ever thus.

[oldalum]

Thanks CT. Your points about strength of schedule and NCAA seeding are of course right. But we've always overcome our poor seeding in the past. My concern with the schedule is about getting enough top-flight competition under our belts during the season so that we are able to excel at the NCAAs. This is especially true for doubles, where playing against ourselves and against lesser teams just doesn't prepare you to play against top competition. Maybe with a younger team Lele wants to ease them into college competition, I don't know.

[oldalum]

Thanks CT. Your points about strength of schedule and NCAA seeding are of course right. But we've always overcome our poor seeding in the past. My concern with the schedule is about getting enough top-flight competition under our belts during the season so that we are able to excel at the NCAAs. This is especially true for doubles, where playing against ourselves and against lesser teams just doesn't prepare you to play against top competition. Maybe with a younger team Lele wants to ease them into college competition, I don't know.

[ColoradoTree]

Thanks CT. Your points about strength of schedule and NCAA seeding are of course right. But we've always overcome our poor seeding in the past. My concern with the schedule is about getting enough top-flight competition under our belts during the season so that we are able to excel at the NCAAs. This is especially true for doubles, where playing against ourselves and against lesser teams just doesn't prepare you to play against top competition. Maybe with a younger team Lele wants to ease them into college competition, I don't know.

Oh, there is certainly reason for concern. It's legit sad that our longstanding rivalries with Florida and Pepperdine have been left on the cutting room floor, and the burgeoning one with Vanderbilt is now being ignored as well. It's one thing to anticipate that you'll get some good matches at Indoor Nationals, but it's quite another to gut your non-conference schedule otherwise and become totally reliant on that handful of matches. 

And I wouldn't think easing a younger team into college competition would matter much. As a freshman, Michaela Gordon played #1 and had non-conference matches against Vanderbilt, Texas, and Florida (with Pepperdine getting rained out). As freshmen, Arbuthnott and Higuchi were vital in getting a 4-3 win over Vanderbilt, and also played Florida, Texas, Oklahoma State, and Pepperdine. As freshmen, Lampl and Lord locked down #5 and #6 all year, including against Ole Miss, Vandy, Florida, and Pepperdine. 

This year, we're unlikely to have more than one freshman play. We have a junior at #1, a senior at #2, and another senior and junior somewhere else in the top 6, with either two sophomores rounding out the lineup or, more likely, a sophomore and one freshman (Blake). We lost the great trio of Lord/Lampl/Yee, of course, but we're always losing great players to graduation. We keep plugging in new ones and a weaker non-conference slate isn't going to help them get better. 

Things could go really well this year, and if so, we'll still be a top 5 team at the start of NCAAs. Things could go really poorly (a lot of close losses to the best teams), and we'd miss out on hosting the first two rounds for the first time ever. But more likely with this schedule, we'll win some close ones and lose some close ones, but the lack of marquee matches means we'll sneak into the top 16 but not the top 8, hosting the first two rounds and then having to go play a road match at someone like UNC or Georgia in the round of 16 rather than get a third match at home.

[ColoradoTree]

Thanks CT. Your points about strength of schedule and NCAA seeding are of course right. But we've always overcome our poor seeding in the past. My concern with the schedule is about getting enough top-flight competition under our belts during the season so that we are able to excel at the NCAAs. This is especially true for doubles, where playing against ourselves and against lesser teams just doesn't prepare you to play against top competition. Maybe with a younger team Lele wants to ease them into college competition, I don't know.

Oh, there is certainly reason for concern. It's legit sad that our longstanding rivalries with Florida and Pepperdine have been left on the cutting room floor, and the burgeoning one with Vanderbilt is now being ignored as well. It's one thing to anticipate that you'll get some good matches at Indoor Nationals, but it's quite another to gut your non-conference schedule otherwise and become totally reliant on that handful of matches. 

And I wouldn't think easing a younger team into college competition would matter much. As a freshman, Michaela Gordon played #1 and had non-conference matches against Vanderbilt, Texas, and Florida (with Pepperdine getting rained out). As freshmen, Arbuthnott and Higuchi were vital in getting a 4-3 win over Vanderbilt, and also played Florida, Texas, Oklahoma State, and Pepperdine. As freshmen, Lampl and Lord locked down #5 and #6 all year, including against Ole Miss, Vandy, Florida, and Pepperdine. 

This year, we're unlikely to have more than one freshman play. We have a junior at #1, a senior at #2, and another senior and junior somewhere else in the top 6, with either two sophomores rounding out the lineup or, more likely, a sophomore and one freshman (Blake). We lost the great trio of Lord/Lampl/Yee, of course, but we're always losing great players to graduation. We keep plugging in new ones and a weaker non-conference slate isn't going to help them get better. 

Things could go really well this year, and if so, we'll still be a top 5 team at the start of NCAAs. Things could go really poorly (a lot of close losses to the best teams), and we'd miss out on hosting the first two rounds for the first time ever. But more likely with this schedule, we'll win some close ones and lose some close ones, but the lack of marquee matches means we'll sneak into the top 16 but not the top 8, hosting the first two rounds and then having to go play a road match at someone like UNC or Georgia in the round of 16 rather than get a third match at home.

[oldalum]

last year I thought Lele responded appropriately to the new 8-seed format by increasing our out-of-conference strength of schedule. I don't understand the rationale for this year's opposite approach. maybe no one wanted to schedule us? but why not, doesn't make sense?

[oldalum]

last year I thought Lele responded appropriately to the new 8-seed format by increasing our out-of-conference strength of schedule. I don't understand the rationale for this year's opposite approach. maybe no one wanted to schedule us? but why not, doesn't make sense?

[TheFarm07]

This year, we're unlikely to have more than one freshman play. We have a junior at #1, a senior at #2, and another senior and junior somewhere else in the top 6, with either two sophomores rounding out the lineup or, more likely, a sophomore and one freshman (Blake). We lost the great trio of Lord/Lampl/Yee, of course, but we're always losing great players to graduation. We keep plugging in new ones and a weaker non-conference slate isn't going to help them get better. 

I am sorry if you've mentioned this before in another thread, but what is the singles lineup you expect from the team this year? Could you provide a quick general analysis too of the strength/weakness of that lineup (if you have the time)? I always appreciate your analysis. I am a big tennis fan (and play it myself), but more of the pro tour than on the collegiate level.

[TheFarm07]

This year, we're unlikely to have more than one freshman play. We have a junior at #1, a senior at #2, and another senior and junior somewhere else in the top 6, with either two sophomores rounding out the lineup or, more likely, a sophomore and one freshman (Blake). We lost the great trio of Lord/Lampl/Yee, of course, but we're always losing great players to graduation. We keep plugging in new ones and a weaker non-conference slate isn't going to help them get better. 

I am sorry if you've mentioned this before in another thread, but what is the singles lineup you expect from the team this year? Could you provide a quick general analysis too of the strength/weakness of that lineup (if you have the time)? I always appreciate your analysis. I am a big tennis fan (and play it myself), but more of the pro tour than on the collegiate level.

[ColoradoTree]

This year, we're unlikely to have more than one freshman play. We have a junior at #1, a senior at #2, and another senior and junior somewhere else in the top 6, with either two sophomores rounding out the lineup or, more likely, a sophomore and one freshman (Blake). We lost the great trio of Lord/Lampl/Yee, of course, but we're always losing great players to graduation. We keep plugging in new ones and a weaker non-conference slate isn't going to help them get better. 

I am sorry if you've mentioned this before in another thread, but what is the singles lineup you expect from the team this year? Could you provide a quick general analysis too of the strength/weakness of that lineup (if you have the time)? I always appreciate your analysis. I am a big tennis fan (and play it myself), but more of the pro tour than on the collegiate level.

No worries! I think the top two of the lineup are fairly set--Michaela Gordon at 1 and Emily Arbuthnott at 2. After that, it depends on how much Lele expects of freshman Angelica Blake. I expect her to be in the lineup, but precisely where is yet to be determined. We'll also have Janice Shin, Emma Higuchi, and one of the sophomores--either Madurawe or Choy. My sense, based on limited appearances last year, is that Madurawe has a slight edge over Choy, but I think it's pretty even.  Here's what I'd like to see:

1. Gordon
2. Arbuthnott
3. Blake
4. Shin
5. Madurawe
6. Higuchi

Gordon is, if anything, even more comfortable at #1 and should be a little more successful for us there. The concern isn't really with Michaela (or with Madurawe or Higuchi, for that matter) but with Arbuthnott and Shin playing higher in the lineup, as they haven't shown throughout the fall season that they're ready to hold down a spot in the top half of the lineup. I'm very bullish on Angelica Blake, though, so if she plays #3, that means Shin slides up just one spot from last year. 

Overall, we've been spoiled by having Lord and Lampl playing #2 and #3 the last couple of years, meaning that with Gordon at #1, we effectively had a 1, 1A, and 1B situation going on. Now, it's a much clearer dropoff after Gordon, meaning we can anticipate more losses at the 2, 3, and 4 lines than we're used to seeing from this team. As always, our strength is in our depth, but unlike past years when we had a few players who were plausible #1s or #2s, it seems like our depth is a little more concentrated at the back of the lineup. That's great if we run into some injuries, but it means we could take more losses in the middle of the lineup than we're used to seeing. 

I wouldn't be surprised to see Higuchi higher in the lineup, or Blake lower, but that's probably close to what we're looking at. And really, with Higuchi having taken the entire fall season off for unknown reasons (presumably an injury), it's always possible we won't see Higuchi in the lineup at all if she's got a nagging injury.

[ColoradoTree]

This year, we're unlikely to have more than one freshman play. We have a junior at #1, a senior at #2, and another senior and junior somewhere else in the top 6, with either two sophomores rounding out the lineup or, more likely, a sophomore and one freshman (Blake). We lost the great trio of Lord/Lampl/Yee, of course, but we're always losing great players to graduation. We keep plugging in new ones and a weaker non-conference slate isn't going to help them get better. 

I am sorry if you've mentioned this before in another thread, but what is the singles lineup you expect from the team this year? Could you provide a quick general analysis too of the strength/weakness of that lineup (if you have the time)? I always appreciate your analysis. I am a big tennis fan (and play it myself), but more of the pro tour than on the collegiate level.

No worries! I think the top two of the lineup are fairly set--Michaela Gordon at 1 and Emily Arbuthnott at 2. After that, it depends on how much Lele expects of freshman Angelica Blake. I expect her to be in the lineup, but precisely where is yet to be determined. We'll also have Janice Shin, Emma Higuchi, and one of the sophomores--either Madurawe or Choy. My sense, based on limited appearances last year, is that Madurawe has a slight edge over Choy, but I think it's pretty even.  Here's what I'd like to see:

1. Gordon
2. Arbuthnott
3. Blake
4. Shin
5. Madurawe
6. Higuchi

Gordon is, if anything, even more comfortable at #1 and should be a little more successful for us there. The concern isn't really with Michaela (or with Madurawe or Higuchi, for that matter) but with Arbuthnott and Shin playing higher in the lineup, as they haven't shown throughout the fall season that they're ready to hold down a spot in the top half of the lineup. I'm very bullish on Angelica Blake, though, so if she plays #3, that means Shin slides up just one spot from last year. 

Overall, we've been spoiled by having Lord and Lampl playing #2 and #3 the last couple of years, meaning that with Gordon at #1, we effectively had a 1, 1A, and 1B situation going on. Now, it's a much clearer dropoff after Gordon, meaning we can anticipate more losses at the 2, 3, and 4 lines than we're used to seeing from this team. As always, our strength is in our depth, but unlike past years when we had a few players who were plausible #1s or #2s, it seems like our depth is a little more concentrated at the back of the lineup. That's great if we run into some injuries, but it means we could take more losses in the middle of the lineup than we're used to seeing. 

I wouldn't be surprised to see Higuchi higher in the lineup, or Blake lower, but that's probably close to what we're looking at. And really, with Higuchi having taken the entire fall season off for unknown reasons (presumably an injury), it's always possible we won't see Higuchi in the lineup at all if she's got a nagging injury.

[BostonCard]

The dateline of that article is

02/11/2019 | Women's Tennis

BC

[BostonCard]

The dateline of that article is

02/11/2019 | Women's Tennis

BC

[BobK]

Oh Eric. Lol. Yes I wrote back wrong dates

[BobK]

Oh Eric. Lol. Yes I wrote back wrong dates

[82lsju]

The dateline of that article is

02/11/2019 | Women's Tennis

BC

oops, what dateline??  :)

I guess I should more carefully review what shows up in the All Write Now newsletter......

[82lsju]

The dateline of that article is

02/11/2019 | Women's Tennis

BC

oops, what dateline??  :)

I guess I should more carefully review what shows up in the All Write Now newsletter......

[ColoradoTree]

All, the first team rankings of the new season are out, and Stanford women's tennis checks in at #1.  https://www.wearecollegetennis.com/2020/...an-8-2020/

I know we're the defending champions and all, but given the ridiculous strength UNC has at the top of the lineup, and the questions that Arbuthnott and Shin have to answer about playing higher in our lineup, I was legitimately surprised to see it. 

As a reminder, the first few rankings of the year are done by committee vote, and after several weeks of that the rankings switch to a formula, so we can see that Stanford got 8 of 12 first-place votes, UNC got 3, and Georgia got 1. Here's the full top 25 (with teams on our schedule in italics):

1. Stanford
T2. UNC
T2. Georgia
4. UCLA
5. Duke
6. Pepperdine
7. Texas
8. N.C. State
9. South Carolina
10. Vanderbilt
11. Oklahoma State
12. USC
13. UCF
T14. Washington
T14. Michigan
16. Florida State
17. Cal
18. Texas A&M
19. Kansas
20. Virginia
21. Florida
22. Tennessee
23. Miami
24. Wake Forest
25. Ohio State

* Notable climbs in the rankings from last year's year-end set are UCF (up 6 spots), USC (up 4), UCLA, Florida, and N.C. State (each up 3)

* Notable drops in the rankings are Kansas (down 6), South Carolina and Washington (each down 4), and Miami (down 3). 

I think Cal is very much underranked here, given the strength we saw from their freshman class in the fall season, and Washington is likely overranked--I think losing Stacey Fung will hit them a lot harder than this ranking anticipates. But otherwise, the Pac-12 is well-regarded, with both UCLA and USC expected to improve on last year.

If USC, UCLA, and Cal all do well in non-conference, then I think wins over those teams will be Top 10 wins by the end of the year. So, if Stanford sweeps the Pac-12 (which I think is far less likely this year than in past years), Stanford could well be the #1 seed at NCAAs, as they'd have three Top 10 wins in the regular season plus likely 2 more in the Pac-12 tournament. Add that to a win over Texas, and you're at 6 great wins. You need 9 countable good wins, so you need 3 more good ones, and we could get those from National Indoors and from Washington. The issue, as we've discussed, is that things could get bleak very quickly if we don't win those matches due to the very thin schedule this year--lose some 4-3 matches to Pac-12 foes and at National Indoors and all of a sudden we don't have the resume to even host the first two rounds of NCAAs. But that's a problem for another day. First things first, we have the Freeman Memorial Championships next weekend where we'll see some good individual matches, and hopefully a season debut from Emma Higuchi. The first dual match of the year is at home vs. South Florida on January 25th, at a time TBD.

[ColoradoTree]

All, the first team rankings of the new season are out, and Stanford women's tennis checks in at #1.  https://www.wearecollegetennis.com/2020/...an-8-2020/

I know we're the defending champions and all, but given the ridiculous strength UNC has at the top of the lineup, and the questions that Arbuthnott and Shin have to answer about playing higher in our lineup, I was legitimately surprised to see it. 

As a reminder, the first few rankings of the year are done by committee vote, and after several weeks of that the rankings switch to a formula, so we can see that Stanford got 8 of 12 first-place votes, UNC got 3, and Georgia got 1. Here's the full top 25 (with teams on our schedule in italics):

1. Stanford
T2. UNC
T2. Georgia
4. UCLA
5. Duke
6. Pepperdine
7. Texas
8. N.C. State
9. South Carolina
10. Vanderbilt
11. Oklahoma State
12. USC
13. UCF
T14. Washington
T14. Michigan
16. Florida State
17. Cal
18. Texas A&M
19. Kansas
20. Virginia
21. Florida
22. Tennessee
23. Miami
24. Wake Forest
25. Ohio State

* Notable climbs in the rankings from last year's year-end set are UCF (up 6 spots), USC (up 4), UCLA, Florida, and N.C. State (each up 3)

* Notable drops in the rankings are Kansas (down 6), South Carolina and Washington (each down 4), and Miami (down 3). 

I think Cal is very much underranked here, given the strength we saw from their freshman class in the fall season, and Washington is likely overranked--I think losing Stacey Fung will hit them a lot harder than this ranking anticipates. But otherwise, the Pac-12 is well-regarded, with both UCLA and USC expected to improve on last year.

If USC, UCLA, and Cal all do well in non-conference, then I think wins over those teams will be Top 10 wins by the end of the year. So, if Stanford sweeps the Pac-12 (which I think is far less likely this year than in past years), Stanford could well be the #1 seed at NCAAs, as they'd have three Top 10 wins in the regular season plus likely 2 more in the Pac-12 tournament. Add that to a win over Texas, and you're at 6 great wins. You need 9 countable good wins, so you need 3 more good ones, and we could get those from National Indoors and from Washington. The issue, as we've discussed, is that things could get bleak very quickly if we don't win those matches due to the very thin schedule this year--lose some 4-3 matches to Pac-12 foes and at National Indoors and all of a sudden we don't have the resume to even host the first two rounds of NCAAs. But that's a problem for another day. First things first, we have the Freeman Memorial Championships next weekend where we'll see some good individual matches, and hopefully a season debut from Emma Higuchi. The first dual match of the year is at home vs. South Florida on January 25th, at a time TBD.

[ColoradoTree]

The Freeman Memorial Championships get started at UNLV this weekend, and while I don't see draws yet, UNLV confirms the field will be made up of players from #1 Stanford, #2 UNC, #6 Pepperdine, and #11 Oklahoma State, in addition to host UNLV. Looks like it's a field of 32 in singles, so expect to see 6+ players from Stanford in the singles field, and 2 or 3 doubles teams in the doubles field. This is an excellent preseason tournament, most recently won by a Stanford player in 2017 by then-sophomore Melissa Lord. 

Things kick off Friday with the Round of 16 in Doubles at 10:00am PT, with the first and second rounds of singles to follow, though none of those times are determined yet and will likely be flexible to allow player rest.  Saturday will start with the doubles quarterfinals, again at 10:00am, with the singles quarterfinals and semifinals to follow. Sunday has the doubles semifinals at 10:00am, followed by the doubles final and the singles final. 

This is a smaller number of schools than usually competes at the Freeman, but the benefit of that is that more of our players will get to participate than usual. Rather than 3 or so players and 1 doubles team here while the rest of the team competes at a different invitational, now the whole team will compete here. 

With players from Stanford, UNC, Pepperdine, and Oklahoma State, here's what we can expect from the field, where all the matches from the Round of 16 on should be excellent (with some in the Round of 32 pitting ranked or ranked-until-recently players against each other):

#1 Ashley Lahey (Pepperdine)
#2 Cameron Morra (UNC)
#4 Sara Daavettila (UNC)
#7 Michaela Gordon
#8 Alexa Graham (UNC)
#16 Lisa Marie Rioux (Oklahoma State)
#29 Bunyawu Thamchaiwat (Oklahoma State)
#36 Alle Sanford (UNC)
#49 Janice Shin
#50 Jessica Failla (Pepperdine)
#62 Anastasia Iamachkine (Pepperdine)
#90 Daria Kuczer (Pepperdine)
#92 Ayumi Miyamoto (Oklahoma State)

Also, Makenna Jones of UNC was ranked #3 in the preseason, but isn't currently ranked due to not playing in the fall. Also ranked in the preseason but not now are Arbuthnott (preseason #30), Higuchi (#78), Choy (#87), and Madurawe (#93), as well as Blake (#8 newcomer). Oklahoma State's Miyamoto was the #7 newcomer in preseason. UNLV does not have any ranked singles players. 

In terms of doubles, here the teams from those schools in the most recent rankings from November:

#5 Jones/Morra (UNC)
#6 Daavettila/Graham (UNC)
#17 Miyamoto/Rioux (Okla State)
#28 Huang/Asano (UNLV)
#33 Blake/Arbuthnott
#36 Iamachkine/Failla (Pepperdine)
#39 Thamchaiwat/Detkovskaya (Okla State)
#50 Sanford/Yarlagdda (UNC)
#58 Arbuthnott/Gordon

I'll post the draws once I have them, as well as any information on live scoring or live streaming, but IIRC, UNLV usually doesn't have any of that for the Freeman.

[ColoradoTree]

The Freeman Memorial Championships get started at UNLV this weekend, and while I don't see draws yet, UNLV confirms the field will be made up of players from #1 Stanford, #2 UNC, #6 Pepperdine, and #11 Oklahoma State, in addition to host UNLV. Looks like it's a field of 32 in singles, so expect to see 6+ players from Stanford in the singles field, and 2 or 3 doubles teams in the doubles field. This is an excellent preseason tournament, most recently won by a Stanford player in 2017 by then-sophomore Melissa Lord. 

Things kick off Friday with the Round of 16 in Doubles at 10:00am PT, with the first and second rounds of singles to follow, though none of those times are determined yet and will likely be flexible to allow player rest.  Saturday will start with the doubles quarterfinals, again at 10:00am, with the singles quarterfinals and semifinals to follow. Sunday has the doubles semifinals at 10:00am, followed by the doubles final and the singles final. 

This is a smaller number of schools than usually competes at the Freeman, but the benefit of that is that more of our players will get to participate than usual. Rather than 3 or so players and 1 doubles team here while the rest of the team competes at a different invitational, now the whole team will compete here. 

With players from Stanford, UNC, Pepperdine, and Oklahoma State, here's what we can expect from the field, where all the matches from the Round of 16 on should be excellent (with some in the Round of 32 pitting ranked or ranked-until-recently players against each other):

#1 Ashley Lahey (Pepperdine)
#2 Cameron Morra (UNC)
#4 Sara Daavettila (UNC)
#7 Michaela Gordon
#8 Alexa Graham (UNC)
#16 Lisa Marie Rioux (Oklahoma State)
#29 Bunyawu Thamchaiwat (Oklahoma State)
#36 Alle Sanford (UNC)
#49 Janice Shin
#50 Jessica Failla (Pepperdine)
#62 Anastasia Iamachkine (Pepperdine)
#90 Daria Kuczer (Pepperdine)
#92 Ayumi Miyamoto (Oklahoma State)

Also, Makenna Jones of UNC was ranked #3 in the preseason, but isn't currently ranked due to not playing in the fall. Also ranked in the preseason but not now are Arbuthnott (preseason #30), Higuchi (#78), Choy (#87), and Madurawe (#93), as well as Blake (#8 newcomer). Oklahoma State's Miyamoto was the #7 newcomer in preseason. UNLV does not have any ranked singles players. 

In terms of doubles, here the teams from those schools in the most recent rankings from November:

#5 Jones/Morra (UNC)
#6 Daavettila/Graham (UNC)
#17 Miyamoto/Rioux (Okla State)
#28 Huang/Asano (UNLV)
#33 Blake/Arbuthnott
#36 Iamachkine/Failla (Pepperdine)
#39 Thamchaiwat/Detkovskaya (Okla State)
#50 Sanford/Yarlagdda (UNC)
#58 Arbuthnott/Gordon

I'll post the draws once I have them, as well as any information on live scoring or live streaming, but IIRC, UNLV usually doesn't have any of that for the Freeman.

[ColoradoTree]

Live stats are supposed to be available at this link: http://sidearmstats.com/unlv/wten/. But we'll see!

Playing this weekend will be Gordon, Shin, Higuchi (her season debut!), Madurawe, Choy, and Mossmer, according to Stanford: https://admin.gostanford.com/gameday/wom...wten/2271/. But not Arbuthnott or Blake, which is surprising, especially since this is as good a tune-up for the dual season as you can hope for, given all the talent present. Plus, they seemed to click as a doubles team, so that part of this tournament sure would've been useful. If it's to allow them to rest nagging injuries, then I hope they'll be back healthy by next weekend, when we take on USF and the Washington State/Denver winner as part of ITA Kick-Off Weekend. (Yes, I'm assuming we beat USF, because if we don't, then burn this season down anyway.)

No draws anywhere that I can see yet, but in any event, they'll start playing doubles in 

Arbuthnott and Blake not being here is disappointing, since I figured they were our #2 and #3, or at least our #2 and #4. Playing against UNC and Pepperdine gets you better. It gets you smarter. Oh well.  On the bright side, it will provide good challenges for the bottom of our lineup and give Lele some useful data points in deciding who plays 4-5-6 and in what order. Also, welcome back, Emma Higuchi!

[ColoradoTree]

Live stats are supposed to be available at this link: http://sidearmstats.com/unlv/wten/. But we'll see!

Playing this weekend will be Gordon, Shin, Higuchi (her season debut!), Madurawe, Choy, and Mossmer, according to Stanford: https://admin.gostanford.com/gameday/wom...wten/2271/. But not Arbuthnott or Blake, which is surprising, especially since this is as good a tune-up for the dual season as you can hope for, given all the talent present. Plus, they seemed to click as a doubles team, so that part of this tournament sure would've been useful. If it's to allow them to rest nagging injuries, then I hope they'll be back healthy by next weekend, when we take on USF and the Washington State/Denver winner as part of ITA Kick-Off Weekend. (Yes, I'm assuming we beat USF, because if we don't, then burn this season down anyway.)

No draws anywhere that I can see yet, but in any event, they'll start playing doubles in 

Arbuthnott and Blake not being here is disappointing, since I figured they were our #2 and #3, or at least our #2 and #4. Playing against UNC and Pepperdine gets you better. It gets you smarter. Oh well.  On the bright side, it will provide good challenges for the bottom of our lineup and give Lele some useful data points in deciding who plays 4-5-6 and in what order. Also, welcome back, Emma Higuchi!

[ColoradoTree]

Looks like Choy and Higuchi are playing doubles together, as are Madurawe and Mossmer. Per the live scoring link (which had been showing scores that must be incorrect since they're not scheduled to start for another half hour, and which is now down), here are the matchups:

* Choy/Higuchi vs. Harvey/Patel (UNC)

* Madurawe/Mossmer vs. Li/Li (UNLV)

It also shows a singles match between Sara Choy and UNLV freshman Sam Smith. The live scoring link only shows 3 doubles matches and 6 singles matches, which is perfect for a dual match but doesn't do much when you have 8 doubles matches going on at the same time, and then 16 singles matches following that. Let's hope they figure something out sooner rather than later.

From Oklahoma State's Twitter account, we've also got the following first round singles matches:

* Mossmer vs. Alana Wolfberg (OSU freshman)
* Madurawe vs. Dariya Detkovskaya (OSU freshman)

Oklahoma State says #16 Rioux and #29 Thamchaiwat got first-round byes, so Gordon must have gotten one as well. It would be easy to know this for sure if UNLV would simply POST THE DRAWS.

[ColoradoTree]

Looks like Choy and Higuchi are playing doubles together, as are Madurawe and Mossmer. Per the live scoring link (which had been showing scores that must be incorrect since they're not scheduled to start for another half hour, and which is now down), here are the matchups:

* Choy/Higuchi vs. Harvey/Patel (UNC)

* Madurawe/Mossmer vs. Li/Li (UNLV)

It also shows a singles match between Sara Choy and UNLV freshman Sam Smith. The live scoring link only shows 3 doubles matches and 6 singles matches, which is perfect for a dual match but doesn't do much when you have 8 doubles matches going on at the same time, and then 16 singles matches following that. Let's hope they figure something out sooner rather than later.

From Oklahoma State's Twitter account, we've also got the following first round singles matches:

* Mossmer vs. Alana Wolfberg (OSU freshman)
* Madurawe vs. Dariya Detkovskaya (OSU freshman)

Oklahoma State says #16 Rioux and #29 Thamchaiwat got first-round byes, so Gordon must have gotten one as well. It would be easy to know this for sure if UNLV would simply POST THE DRAWS.

[oldalum]

nice short video on last year's championship

tennis video

also talking about winning 3 of the last 4 championships.

---

Choy-Higuchi won 6-2.
Madurawe-Mossmer are at 6-6 and seem to be in a first-set tiebreaker.
(which they won 7-3)

[oldalum]

nice short video on last year's championship

tennis video

also talking about winning 3 of the last 4 championships.

---

Choy-Higuchi won 6-2.
Madurawe-Mossmer are at 6-6 and seem to be in a first-set tiebreaker.
(which they won 7-3)

[ColoradoTree]

Results post (I'll update as they come in):

Doubles Round of 16:

* Choy/Higuchi d. Harvey/Patel (UNC) 6-2
* Madurawe/Mossmer d. Li/Li (UNLV) 7-6

Singles Round of 32:

* Choy d. Sam Smith 6-1, 6-1 (or, at least, this is what I gleaned from a seemingly contradictory scoreboard--it could be something else)
* Mossmer d. Wolfberg (Okla State) 4-6, 6-4, 6-4
* Detkovskaya (Okla State) d. Madurawe, 4-6, 7-5, 6-3

Singles Round of 16:

* #7 Gordon vs. Lenka Stara (Okla State)
* #49 Shin vs. En Pei Huang (UNLV)
* Mossmer vs. #36 Alle Sanford (UNC)

I'm sure there were other results! I just don't know what they are. We'll have to wait for the daily result articles to get posted to the various teams' websites. I'll update when I can, though!

[ColoradoTree]

Results post (I'll update as they come in):

Doubles Round of 16:

* Choy/Higuchi d. Harvey/Patel (UNC) 6-2
* Madurawe/Mossmer d. Li/Li (UNLV) 7-6

Singles Round of 32:

* Choy d. Sam Smith 6-1, 6-1 (or, at least, this is what I gleaned from a seemingly contradictory scoreboard--it could be something else)
* Mossmer d. Wolfberg (Okla State) 4-6, 6-4, 6-4
* Detkovskaya (Okla State) d. Madurawe, 4-6, 7-5, 6-3

Singles Round of 16:

* #7 Gordon vs. Lenka Stara (Okla State)
* #49 Shin vs. En Pei Huang (UNLV)
* Mossmer vs. #36 Alle Sanford (UNC)

I'm sure there were other results! I just don't know what they are. We'll have to wait for the daily result articles to get posted to the various teams' websites. I'll update when I can, though!

[oldalum]

Singles Main Draw First Round
Jan. 17: Emma Higuchi (STAN) d. Astrid Brune Olsen (PEPP) default
Jan. 17: Nicole Mossmer (STAN) d. Alana Wolfberg (OKSTATE) 4-6, 6-4, 6-4
Jan. 17: Sara Choy (STAN) d. Samantha Smith (UNLV) 6-1, 6-1
Jan. 17: Dariya Detkovskaya (OKSTATE) d. Niluka Madurawe (STAN) 5-7, 7-5, 6-3
Singles Main Draw Round of 16
Jan. 17: No. 7 Michaela Gordon (STAN) d. Lenka Stara (OKSTATE) 6-1, 6-3
Jan. 17: No. 92 Ayumi Miyamoto (OKSTATE) d. Emma Higuchi (STAN) 6-2, 6-3
Jan. 17: No. 36 Alle Sanford (UNC) d. Nicole Mossmer (STAN) 6-3, 6-1
Jan. 17: No. 49 Janice Shin (STAN) d. En-Pei Huang (UNLV) 6-1, 4-6, 6-3
Jan. 17: No. 29 Bunyawi Thamchaiwat (OSU) d. Sara Choy (STAN) 3-6, 6-0, 7-6
Doubles Main Draw First Round
Jan. 17: Niluka Madurawe/Nicole Mossmer (STAN) d. Connie Li/Samantha Li (UNLV) 7-6
Jan. 17: Sara Choy/Emma Higuchi (STAN) d. Kacie Harvey/Sophia Patel (UNC) 6-2

[oldalum]

Singles Main Draw First Round
Jan. 17: Emma Higuchi (STAN) d. Astrid Brune Olsen (PEPP) default
Jan. 17: Nicole Mossmer (STAN) d. Alana Wolfberg (OKSTATE) 4-6, 6-4, 6-4
Jan. 17: Sara Choy (STAN) d. Samantha Smith (UNLV) 6-1, 6-1
Jan. 17: Dariya Detkovskaya (OKSTATE) d. Niluka Madurawe (STAN) 5-7, 7-5, 6-3
Singles Main Draw Round of 16
Jan. 17: No. 7 Michaela Gordon (STAN) d. Lenka Stara (OKSTATE) 6-1, 6-3
Jan. 17: No. 92 Ayumi Miyamoto (OKSTATE) d. Emma Higuchi (STAN) 6-2, 6-3
Jan. 17: No. 36 Alle Sanford (UNC) d. Nicole Mossmer (STAN) 6-3, 6-1
Jan. 17: No. 49 Janice Shin (STAN) d. En-Pei Huang (UNLV) 6-1, 4-6, 6-3
Jan. 17: No. 29 Bunyawi Thamchaiwat (OSU) d. Sara Choy (STAN) 3-6, 6-0, 7-6
Doubles Main Draw First Round
Jan. 17: Niluka Madurawe/Nicole Mossmer (STAN) d. Connie Li/Samantha Li (UNLV) 7-6
Jan. 17: Sara Choy/Emma Higuchi (STAN) d. Kacie Harvey/Sophia Patel (UNC) 6-2

[BostonCard]

https://gostanford.com/news/2020/1/17/wo...recap.aspx

As reproduced by old alum.

BC

[BostonCard]

https://gostanford.com/news/2020/1/17/wo...recap.aspx

As reproduced by old alum.

BC

[ColoradoTree]

Gordon against OSU’s Miyamoto this morning, while Shin takes on UNC’s Sanford. A particularly big test for Shin!

[ColoradoTree]

Gordon against OSU’s Miyamoto this morning, while Shin takes on UNC’s Sanford. A particularly big test for Shin!

[oldalum]

in doubles today, looks like Gordon/Shin got trounced by an OSU team, 1-6.
Madurawe/Mossmer lost 2-6 to a different OSU team.
Choy/Higuchi over a UNLV team 6-5 (I assume this was 7-5).

[oldalum]

in doubles today, looks like Gordon/Shin got trounced by an OSU team, 1-6.
Madurawe/Mossmer lost 2-6 to a different OSU team.
Choy/Higuchi over a UNLV team 6-5 (I assume this was 7-5).

[ColoradoTree]

Looks like Shin lost to Sanford handily in the quarters (6-2, 6-2), and Gordon in turn crushed Sanford (6-0, 6-1). The final tomorrow is Gordon vs. Oklahoma State’s Thamchaiwat, ranked #29. 

Wished Shin would have put in more of a showing against a player who is UNC’s #5 singles player. Of course, that’s more a comment on how absurd UNC’s lineup is (Sanford is a top 50 player, after all), but still. I still can’t shake the sense that this time has one clear #1, a #3, and a whole host of #5s. Doubles is going to be absolutely crucial this year against the top teams, because we don’t have the same reliable points at #2 and #3 that we did the last couple of years.

[ColoradoTree]

Looks like Shin lost to Sanford handily in the quarters (6-2, 6-2), and Gordon in turn crushed Sanford (6-0, 6-1). The final tomorrow is Gordon vs. Oklahoma State’s Thamchaiwat, ranked #29. 

Wished Shin would have put in more of a showing against a player who is UNC’s #5 singles player. Of course, that’s more a comment on how absurd UNC’s lineup is (Sanford is a top 50 player, after all), but still. I still can’t shake the sense that this time has one clear #1, a #3, and a whole host of #5s. Doubles is going to be absolutely crucial this year against the top teams, because we don’t have the same reliable points at #2 and #3 that we did the last couple of years.