[JustAnotherFan]

Getting past the peak does them little good if they've lost a bunch of medical workers in the process. Their capacity ramped up dramatically, and now the medical casualties of the fight might have effectively lowered that capacity.

[JustAnotherFan]

Getting past the peak does them little good if they've lost a bunch of medical workers in the process. Their capacity ramped up dramatically, and now the medical casualties of the fight might have effectively lowered that capacity.

[BostonCard]

I think at this point the trend, not just in new cases, but in deaths, is unmistakable.  Yesterday Italy reported 681 deaths, which is 25% fewer than the peak of 919 on March 27 and fewer than any day since March 23.

Similar pattern in Spain where deaths seem to have peaked April 2 and were lower then than any day since March 26.

Even the US, the logarithmic curve is starting to flatten, which means the doubling time is slowing down.

BC

[BostonCard]

I think at this point the trend, not just in new cases, but in deaths, is unmistakable.  Yesterday Italy reported 681 deaths, which is 25% fewer than the peak of 919 on March 27 and fewer than any day since March 23.

Similar pattern in Spain where deaths seem to have peaked April 2 and were lower then than any day since March 26.

Even the US, the logarithmic curve is starting to flatten, which means the doubling time is slowing down.

BC

[dabigv13]

SoCal looks like its flattening. I was supposed to do my first ICU shift since internship tomorrow, but not needed since our ICU admissions have flattened. We have fallen off the exponential curve our models had. I am really crossing my fingers we are at peak, and so so thankful it appears we may have avoided the NYC/Italy style apocalypse. This weekend was the weekend we would see if social distancing was soon enough, and I think in SoCal we hit it. Another week would have been a very different story.

[dabigv13]

SoCal looks like its flattening. I was supposed to do my first ICU shift since internship tomorrow, but not needed since our ICU admissions have flattened. We have fallen off the exponential curve our models had. I am really crossing my fingers we are at peak, and so so thankful it appears we may have avoided the NYC/Italy style apocalypse. This weekend was the weekend we would see if social distancing was soon enough, and I think in SoCal we hit it. Another week would have been a very different story.

[magnus]

SoCal looks like its flattening. I was supposed to do my first ICU shift since internship tomorrow, but not needed since our ICU admissions have flattened. We have fallen off the exponential curve our models had. I am really crossing my fingers we are at peak, and so so thankful it appears we may have avoided the NYC/Italy style apocalypse. This weekend was the weekend we would see if social distancing was soon enough, and I think in SoCal we hit it. Another week would have been a very different story.

That's great to hear, dabigv13

[magnus]

SoCal looks like its flattening. I was supposed to do my first ICU shift since internship tomorrow, but not needed since our ICU admissions have flattened. We have fallen off the exponential curve our models had. I am really crossing my fingers we are at peak, and so so thankful it appears we may have avoided the NYC/Italy style apocalypse. This weekend was the weekend we would see if social distancing was soon enough, and I think in SoCal we hit it. Another week would have been a very different story.

That's great to hear, dabigv13

[oldalum]

The UW model seems to have revised its projections downward a lot. For California, they are projecting a peak in resource use around April 14 (was late April), with total beds and ICU beds needed coming out well below how many are available.

UW projections

[oldalum]

The UW model seems to have revised its projections downward a lot. For California, they are projecting a peak in resource use around April 14 (was late April), with total beds and ICU beds needed coming out well below how many are available.

UW projections

[burger]

Speaking of ICU admissions, this article has a map with # of ICU admissions and the % of beds filled by county in CA.  Click on a county,and you can see trends the last few days, too.

https://www.sacbee.com/news/local/health...90336.html

[burger]

Speaking of ICU admissions, this article has a map with # of ICU admissions and the % of beds filled by county in CA.  Click on a county,and you can see trends the last few days, too.

https://www.sacbee.com/news/local/health...90336.html

[Mick]

SoCal looks like its flattening. I was supposed to do my first ICU shift since internship tomorrow, but not needed since our ICU admissions have flattened. We have fallen off the exponential curve our models had. I am really crossing my fingers we are at peak, and so so thankful it appears we may have avoided the NYC/Italy style apocalypse. This weekend was the weekend we would see if social distancing was soon enough, and I think in SoCal we hit it. Another week would have been a very different story.

How ironic.  Infections in SoCal are flattening, but about 10 minutes ago, one of my Directors in LA told me she had the key systems, had a telemed conference with her PCP and she scheduled a test for 4-10.  Earliest she could get.

[Mick]

SoCal looks like its flattening. I was supposed to do my first ICU shift since internship tomorrow, but not needed since our ICU admissions have flattened. We have fallen off the exponential curve our models had. I am really crossing my fingers we are at peak, and so so thankful it appears we may have avoided the NYC/Italy style apocalypse. This weekend was the weekend we would see if social distancing was soon enough, and I think in SoCal we hit it. Another week would have been a very different story.

How ironic.  Infections in SoCal are flattening, but about 10 minutes ago, one of my Directors in LA told me she had the key systems, had a telemed conference with her PCP and she scheduled a test for 4-10.  Earliest she could get.

[dabigv13]

Unfortunately tests and swabs are still very limited across state and country. And we're still on peak. Our success in flattening curve has come only because of social distancing, the same way we fought plagues in the middle ages. We aren't winning with tech but blunt force.

Perhaps once we are past peak, our limited tests and swabs will go farther when we have less cases. But we'll need even more still before we can think of reopening.

[dabigv13]

Unfortunately tests and swabs are still very limited across state and country. And we're still on peak. Our success in flattening curve has come only because of social distancing, the same way we fought plagues in the middle ages. We aren't winning with tech but blunt force.

Perhaps once we are past peak, our limited tests and swabs will go farther when we have less cases. But we'll need even more still before we can think of reopening.

[ChicagoCard]

Someone posted this a while ago. If it's a graphical presentation of new positive cases, daily, then it looks like good news for the situation in Italy...

https://public.flourish.studio/visualisation/1659720/

[ChicagoCard]

Someone posted this a while ago. If it's a graphical presentation of new positive cases, daily, then it looks like good news for the situation in Italy...

https://public.flourish.studio/visualisation/1659720/

[oldalum]

 If it's a graphical presentation of new positive cases, daily, then it looks like good news for the situation in Italy...

yes, nuovi positivi means new positives. I just hope the graph is about Covid-19 and not pregnancy tests (which might have an exponential rise and peak corresponding to stay at home rules).

[oldalum]

 If it's a graphical presentation of new positive cases, daily, then it looks like good news for the situation in Italy...

yes, nuovi positivi means new positives. I just hope the graph is about Covid-19 and not pregnancy tests (which might have an exponential rise and peak corresponding to stay at home rules).

[BostonCard]

Italy has had fewer than 4000 cases the last three days!  That's down from 6557 new cases on the peak.  Deaths are also down, and have been below 700 for four days, down from a peak of 919.

BC

[BostonCard]

Italy has had fewer than 4000 cases the last three days!  That's down from 6557 new cases on the peak.  Deaths are also down, and have been below 700 for four days, down from a peak of 919.

BC

[OutsiderFan]

Now let’s see what Italy does to lift lockdown. Anyone have any idea if it has a plan? 

And I know the WHO has been a mixed bag, but does it have any guidance for how the world should lift restrictions or what regulations are being advised for our new normal?

[OutsiderFan]

Now let’s see what Italy does to lift lockdown. Anyone have any idea if it has a plan? 

And I know the WHO has been a mixed bag, but does it have any guidance for how the world should lift restrictions or what regulations are being advised for our new normal?

[magnus]

Now let’s see what Italy does to lift lockdown. Anyone have any idea if it has a plan? 

We're going to have to wait longer.  Italy just extended their lockdown to May 3rd

[magnus]

Now let’s see what Italy does to lift lockdown. Anyone have any idea if it has a plan? 

We're going to have to wait longer.  Italy just extended their lockdown to May 3rd

[terry]

We're going to have to wait longer.  Italy just extended their lockdown to May 3rd

Not surprising that they extended the lockdown. Italy is on the declining part of the curve, but it still is seeing 3,000+ new cases per day and 500+ deaths per day. They are not out of the woods by any means. If they removed the lockdown, there could be another wave of infections.

[terry]

We're going to have to wait longer.  Italy just extended their lockdown to May 3rd

Not surprising that they extended the lockdown. Italy is on the declining part of the curve, but it still is seeing 3,000+ new cases per day and 500+ deaths per day. They are not out of the woods by any means. If they removed the lockdown, there could be another wave of infections.

[magnus]

Looks like they had 174 deaths in the last 24 hour period.

Great to see their count reduce by so much,  though slightly apprehensive that they couldn't get it to double digits as the country starts to relax tomorrow.   

Time will tell if their extra wait vs our minimal wait was a better choice.

[magnus]

Looks like they had 174 deaths in the last 24 hour period.

Great to see their count reduce by so much,  though slightly apprehensive that they couldn't get it to double digits as the country starts to relax tomorrow.   

Time will tell if their extra wait vs our minimal wait was a better choice.

[2006alum]

I'd say the single biggest failing of modellers, the media, and elected officials has been the widespread presentation of post-lockdown curves as being as steep as the climb was, and life returning to quasi-normal at a relatively brisk pace. I really don't think most people realize that if we go back to even half-normal now, our daily death rates are likely to continue for much of the next year...

[2006alum]

I'd say the single biggest failing of modellers, the media, and elected officials has been the widespread presentation of post-lockdown curves as being as steep as the climb was, and life returning to quasi-normal at a relatively brisk pace. I really don't think most people realize that if we go back to even half-normal now, our daily death rates are likely to continue for much of the next year...

[OutsiderFan]

I saw former FDA chief Dr. Scott Gottlieb say yesterday effectively what most scientists and medical pros feel. That is we didn’t make enough progress with our lockdowns. Nobody thought we’d have 70,000 deaths with them in place. It’s possible warmer weather slows spread, but he said we should expect about 1,000 Covid-19 deaths per day through the Summer. 

Based on Italy, Spain, France having about 200/day after longer lockdowns and 5-6x less population, that 1k/day seems a reasonable estimate.

[OutsiderFan]

I saw former FDA chief Dr. Scott Gottlieb say yesterday effectively what most scientists and medical pros feel. That is we didn’t make enough progress with our lockdowns. Nobody thought we’d have 70,000 deaths with them in place. It’s possible warmer weather slows spread, but he said we should expect about 1,000 Covid-19 deaths per day through the Summer. 

Based on Italy, Spain, France having about 200/day after longer lockdowns and 5-6x less population, that 1k/day seems a reasonable estimate.

[magnus]

Just a little apples to grapes comparison. 

Italy is now way higher in daily cases than when we checked in last on the backside of the first wave. (See earlier posts for earlier numbers)

[Tweet]https://twitter.com/BNODesk/status/1314989034368888835?s=20[/tweet] 

But fortunately deaths are way less.   Hopefully/likely this is because of more testing availability and better treatments than because of the delayed correlation of death to cases.

[magnus]

Just a little apples to grapes comparison. 

Italy is now way higher in daily cases than when we checked in last on the backside of the first wave. (See earlier posts for earlier numbers)

[Tweet]https://twitter.com/BNODesk/status/1314989034368888835?s=20[/tweet] 

But fortunately deaths are way less.   Hopefully/likely this is because of more testing availability and better treatments than because of the delayed correlation of death to cases.

[Farm93]

Just a little apples to grapes comparison. 

Italy is now way higher in daily cases than when we checked in last on the backside of the first wave. (See earlier posts for earlier numbers)

[Tweet]https://twitter.com/BNODesk/status/1314989034368888835?s=20[/tweet] 

But fortunately deaths are way less.   Hopefully/likely this is because of more testing availability and better treatments than because of the delayed correlation of death to cases.

The second wave really has been expected.   I am very confident that the leaders in the EU have been working diligently to get everything ready.   I know EU citizens are aware of the epic struggle ahead.   I am not sure they have extra facilities for a massive surge, but trust they are using the best science, medicine AND public policy to make the best of a very difficult stretch.

The EU surge in cases SHOULD serve as another early warning for the USA to get ready too, but given our government has missed or ignored all prior early warnings related to COVID events in Europe I fear we are going to miss the signs again.

[Farm93]

Just a little apples to grapes comparison. 

Italy is now way higher in daily cases than when we checked in last on the backside of the first wave. (See earlier posts for earlier numbers)

[Tweet]https://twitter.com/BNODesk/status/1314989034368888835?s=20[/tweet] 

But fortunately deaths are way less.   Hopefully/likely this is because of more testing availability and better treatments than because of the delayed correlation of death to cases.

The second wave really has been expected.   I am very confident that the leaders in the EU have been working diligently to get everything ready.   I know EU citizens are aware of the epic struggle ahead.   I am not sure they have extra facilities for a massive surge, but trust they are using the best science, medicine AND public policy to make the best of a very difficult stretch.

The EU surge in cases SHOULD serve as another early warning for the USA to get ready too, but given our government has missed or ignored all prior early warnings related to COVID events in Europe I fear we are going to miss the signs again.

[OutsiderFan]

After just catching Rafael Nadal win his staggering 13th French Open title, some thoughts.

The French Open was re-scheduled from May to October under the guise of pandemic. What's a bit ironic is that in May, France had yet to have even 8,000 reported new cases in a day.  Yesterday, October 10, it had nearly 27,000 new cases reported, yet the French Open went on.  While watching on TV, it was evident everyone in the stadium - with closed roof - was wearing a mask. This tests my theory that we can probably do most things as long as we wear masks, keep distance, and don't stay indoors very long.

On a related, note, the contrast between the French Open and the SEC football stadiums I saw yesterday, with virtually nobody wearing a mask, was jarring. I don't know how the citizens of EU countries are adhering to restrictions outside sports venues with limited fans, but based on what I saw this morning at Roland Garros it seems European countries are still doing a better job than the U.S.  If even Italy and France are experiencing a resurgence - Italy almost back to where it was with new daily cases from March, and France having 3x more, and Spain also having had a second wave larger than the first, it stands to reason that the U.S. states that have let guard down are going to be facing hell in a couple weeks. But even the states that have been smart with restrictions to limit spread have issues.  As the temps get cooler, the humidity retreats, and people go inside more, the virus will spread even with regulations form health leaders.

[OutsiderFan]

After just catching Rafael Nadal win his staggering 13th French Open title, some thoughts.

The French Open was re-scheduled from May to October under the guise of pandemic. What's a bit ironic is that in May, France had yet to have even 8,000 reported new cases in a day.  Yesterday, October 10, it had nearly 27,000 new cases reported, yet the French Open went on.  While watching on TV, it was evident everyone in the stadium - with closed roof - was wearing a mask. This tests my theory that we can probably do most things as long as we wear masks, keep distance, and don't stay indoors very long.

On a related, note, the contrast between the French Open and the SEC football stadiums I saw yesterday, with virtually nobody wearing a mask, was jarring. I don't know how the citizens of EU countries are adhering to restrictions outside sports venues with limited fans, but based on what I saw this morning at Roland Garros it seems European countries are still doing a better job than the U.S.  If even Italy and France are experiencing a resurgence - Italy almost back to where it was with new daily cases from March, and France having 3x more, and Spain also having had a second wave larger than the first, it stands to reason that the U.S. states that have let guard down are going to be facing hell in a couple weeks. But even the states that have been smart with restrictions to limit spread have issues.  As the temps get cooler, the humidity retreats, and people go inside more, the virus will spread even with regulations form health leaders.