[rudruff]

I was trying to reconcile the differences between what kind of transmission rates seen in schools and day cares in studies with anecdotal discussions that seem to have started about how people are contracting the disease. Then I came to the obvious conclusion that not everyone is going to be super honest about how a family got sick. 

    Someone who engages in risky behavior, pass it to his/her kids and sends them to day care is viewed very differently than someone who's kids got it at day care and spread it to the family.

    A health care worker with full PPE who gets it while working is heroic, so long as he/she didn't get it sitting in a crowded breakroom with everyone's mask off.

    A workplace outbreak is tragic so long as it isn't happening among a bunch of friends at a weekend BBQ.

    I do wonder how much of a BS detector you have to have as a contact tracer.

[rudruff]

I was trying to reconcile the differences between what kind of transmission rates seen in schools and day cares in studies with anecdotal discussions that seem to have started about how people are contracting the disease. Then I came to the obvious conclusion that not everyone is going to be super honest about how a family got sick. 

    Someone who engages in risky behavior, pass it to his/her kids and sends them to day care is viewed very differently than someone who's kids got it at day care and spread it to the family.

    A health care worker with full PPE who gets it while working is heroic, so long as he/she didn't get it sitting in a crowded breakroom with everyone's mask off.

    A workplace outbreak is tragic so long as it isn't happening among a bunch of friends at a weekend BBQ.

    I do wonder how much of a BS detector you have to have as a contact tracer.

[lex24]

I was trying to reconcile the differences between what kind of transmission rates seen in schools and day cares in studies with anecdotal discussions that seem to have started about how people are contracting the disease. Then I came to the obvious conclusion that not everyone is going to be super honest about how a family got sick. 

    Someone who engages in risky behavior, pass it to his/her kids and sends them to day care is viewed very differently than someone who's kids got it at day care and spread it to the family.

    A health care worker with full PPE who gets it while working is heroic, so long as he/she didn't get it sitting in a crowded breakroom with everyone's mask off.

    A workplace outbreak is tragic so long as it isn't happening among a bunch of friends at a weekend BBQ.

    I do wonder how much of a BS detector you have to have as a contact tracer.

Is it necessary to know “how”. Isn’t it sufficient for the contact tracer to get information relating to the people they came in contact with?  People may have concerns that they can be penalized if they were engaging in risky behavior.

[lex24]

I was trying to reconcile the differences between what kind of transmission rates seen in schools and day cares in studies with anecdotal discussions that seem to have started about how people are contracting the disease. Then I came to the obvious conclusion that not everyone is going to be super honest about how a family got sick. 

    Someone who engages in risky behavior, pass it to his/her kids and sends them to day care is viewed very differently than someone who's kids got it at day care and spread it to the family.

    A health care worker with full PPE who gets it while working is heroic, so long as he/she didn't get it sitting in a crowded breakroom with everyone's mask off.

    A workplace outbreak is tragic so long as it isn't happening among a bunch of friends at a weekend BBQ.

    I do wonder how much of a BS detector you have to have as a contact tracer.

Is it necessary to know “how”. Isn’t it sufficient for the contact tracer to get information relating to the people they came in contact with?  People may have concerns that they can be penalized if they were engaging in risky behavior.

[BostonCard]

Good thoughts, and I agree that there may be some social desirability bias in responses for people who engaged in risky behavior to say "I don't know how I got it", even if they hosted a large backyard barbecue with sporadic mask-wearing.  I think it is important for contact tracers to state that their purpose is not to get people in trouble or pass judgment, only to identify other people who may have gotten infected.  Another important point is to make that contact tracing can only sometimes definitively identify how someone contacted COVID-19; sometime patients will have had multiple possible transmission events.  Still, agree with your point about needing to have a BS detector.

That there are two main reasons why knowing "how" is important.  The first (and, IMHO most important) is to be able to craft policy.  If you find out a lot of transmissions are happening from bars and few transmissions are happening at schools, you close bars and leave schools open.  If you find out private parties are a problem, you focus your communications on letting people know the risks and urging them not to have backyard barbecues.  If you find a hotspot (for example, a meat packing plant) you close it down or work with the employer to reduce the risk.

The second reason is that you want to find other people who might have been exposed.  If it is a workplace transmission, you test other people at that workplace to see if others have been infected.  If you know that one person has been infected, then it is likely that more will have been infected.

BC

[BostonCard]

Good thoughts, and I agree that there may be some social desirability bias in responses for people who engaged in risky behavior to say "I don't know how I got it", even if they hosted a large backyard barbecue with sporadic mask-wearing.  I think it is important for contact tracers to state that their purpose is not to get people in trouble or pass judgment, only to identify other people who may have gotten infected.  Another important point is to make that contact tracing can only sometimes definitively identify how someone contacted COVID-19; sometime patients will have had multiple possible transmission events.  Still, agree with your point about needing to have a BS detector.

That there are two main reasons why knowing "how" is important.  The first (and, IMHO most important) is to be able to craft policy.  If you find out a lot of transmissions are happening from bars and few transmissions are happening at schools, you close bars and leave schools open.  If you find out private parties are a problem, you focus your communications on letting people know the risks and urging them not to have backyard barbecues.  If you find a hotspot (for example, a meat packing plant) you close it down or work with the employer to reduce the risk.

The second reason is that you want to find other people who might have been exposed.  If it is a workplace transmission, you test other people at that workplace to see if others have been infected.  If you know that one person has been infected, then it is likely that more will have been infected.

BC

[Snorlax94]

I have long suspected a high BS Quotient in the US. Months ago, I pointed out the curious statistic that the US appeared to have a “unique strain” of Covid that led to much higher rates of asymptomatic transmission than in many other countries. 

Some people don’t want to admit that they felt a little sick that weekend when they went to a lot of parties, so they coincidentally *always* started to feel sick exactly the next morning.

Also by coincidence, countries that have more tracking in place (it could be sign ins at clubs, it could be entering your health data each morning on cell phones) have lower rates of transmission and asymptomatic transmission.

One of the benefits of very well-defined, restricted, regulated, short-term increases in monitoring in the US is that maybe people won’t do as much dumb stuff if they know they’ll get caught for it and can’t just lie afterwards and say they have no idea how they got Covid because they’re “always at home.” Or, this is why states like Missouri (and I think Texas) have resorted to curfews. People are going to break guidelines especially at night so unforunately you are stuck with having to restrict all behaviors at night.

[Snorlax94]

I have long suspected a high BS Quotient in the US. Months ago, I pointed out the curious statistic that the US appeared to have a “unique strain” of Covid that led to much higher rates of asymptomatic transmission than in many other countries. 

Some people don’t want to admit that they felt a little sick that weekend when they went to a lot of parties, so they coincidentally *always* started to feel sick exactly the next morning.

Also by coincidence, countries that have more tracking in place (it could be sign ins at clubs, it could be entering your health data each morning on cell phones) have lower rates of transmission and asymptomatic transmission.

One of the benefits of very well-defined, restricted, regulated, short-term increases in monitoring in the US is that maybe people won’t do as much dumb stuff if they know they’ll get caught for it and can’t just lie afterwards and say they have no idea how they got Covid because they’re “always at home.” Or, this is why states like Missouri (and I think Texas) have resorted to curfews. People are going to break guidelines especially at night so unforunately you are stuck with having to restrict all behaviors at night.

[CardinalSagehen]

I have long suspected a high BS Quotient in the US. 

It seems like everyone's return-to-work plan includes self-reporting of Covid symptoms and exposure. Temple thermometers would go quite a bit further.  It looks like they cost $40 on Amazon right now and arrive by Saturday.  What does one night in the hospital cost, $10K-20K?  Would 250 temple thermometers in public places save one hospital night?  I think so.    

This would be especially true in schools, whenever the kids and staff end up going back. 

Only testing can catch pre-symptomatic and asymptomatic transmission, but temple thermometers can catch a bit of the "BS quotient" to which Snorlax refers.

[CardinalSagehen]

I have long suspected a high BS Quotient in the US. 

It seems like everyone's return-to-work plan includes self-reporting of Covid symptoms and exposure. Temple thermometers would go quite a bit further.  It looks like they cost $40 on Amazon right now and arrive by Saturday.  What does one night in the hospital cost, $10K-20K?  Would 250 temple thermometers in public places save one hospital night?  I think so.    

This would be especially true in schools, whenever the kids and staff end up going back. 

Only testing can catch pre-symptomatic and asymptomatic transmission, but temple thermometers can catch a bit of the "BS quotient" to which Snorlax refers.

[dabigv13]

So little of the spread of this disease is from people symptomatic enough to have a fever. Thermometers are mostly security theater IMHO.

[dabigv13]

So little of the spread of this disease is from people symptomatic enough to have a fever. Thermometers are mostly security theater IMHO.

[Goose]

So little of the spread of this disease is from people symptomatic enough to have a fever. Thermometers are mostly security theater IMHO.

Totally agree. Some people have active COVID-19 and never spike a fever. Further,lots of the thermometers you buy on Amazon are wildly inaccurate. Like most "security theatre", it will catch a few cases. But it is far from a "good" solution.

[Goose]

So little of the spread of this disease is from people symptomatic enough to have a fever. Thermometers are mostly security theater IMHO.

Totally agree. Some people have active COVID-19 and never spike a fever. Further,lots of the thermometers you buy on Amazon are wildly inaccurate. Like most "security theatre", it will catch a few cases. But it is far from a "good" solution.

[CardinalSagehen]

So little of the spread of this disease is from people symptomatic enough to have a fever. Thermometers are mostly security theater IMHO.

Totally agree. Some people have active COVID-19 and never spike a fever. Further,lots of the thermometers you buy on Amazon are wildly inaccurate. Like most "security theatre", it will catch a few cases. But it is far from a "good" solution.

Fair enough, I defer to the experts. I know it’s not a panacea and acknowledged the prevalence of asymptomatic spread. I don’t know how anyone can be certain that super-spreading or the worst/highest viral loads aren’t spread by symptomatic people, with how little we know, but that’s beside the point.  

Nothing is a good solution on its own, except frequent and immediate test results. Until we have that, I’m for masks, self-reporting, outdoor waiting rooms, temp-taking and all forms of security theater, superimposed. To me, temp-taking (even with somewhat inaccurate devices) seems to meet the threshold of things we should be doing in places like gyms and salons.  Perhaps we will have to buy $200 thermometers rather than $40 ones - it would still be worth it.  

Defense in depth.  

Anything that might reduce the virality factor by a smidge can save lives and jobs. That is my view but I admit it’s a bit of a firehose approach.

[CardinalSagehen]

So little of the spread of this disease is from people symptomatic enough to have a fever. Thermometers are mostly security theater IMHO.

Totally agree. Some people have active COVID-19 and never spike a fever. Further,lots of the thermometers you buy on Amazon are wildly inaccurate. Like most "security theatre", it will catch a few cases. But it is far from a "good" solution.

Fair enough, I defer to the experts. I know it’s not a panacea and acknowledged the prevalence of asymptomatic spread. I don’t know how anyone can be certain that super-spreading or the worst/highest viral loads aren’t spread by symptomatic people, with how little we know, but that’s beside the point.  

Nothing is a good solution on its own, except frequent and immediate test results. Until we have that, I’m for masks, self-reporting, outdoor waiting rooms, temp-taking and all forms of security theater, superimposed. To me, temp-taking (even with somewhat inaccurate devices) seems to meet the threshold of things we should be doing in places like gyms and salons.  Perhaps we will have to buy $200 thermometers rather than $40 ones - it would still be worth it.  

Defense in depth.  

Anything that might reduce the virality factor by a smidge can save lives and jobs. That is my view but I admit it’s a bit of a firehose approach.