[BostonCard]

It's Thursday, so today is unemployment claims day.

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/09/24/weekly-j...laims.html

At 870,000, the number of first time unemployment claims went up slightly (vs. 860,000 yesterday).  It had been expected to go down a bit, though weekly unemployment claims are noisy.  I also wonder how California pausing filings for a couple weeks will affect the numbers.

In other news, a consensus is developing that come what may, we are unlikely to see a new Coronavirus relief bill.  The senate is expected to be busy with the Supreme Court confirmation until the election at the least.  It is also unclear what a lame duck congress session will do.

The good news, such as it is, is the following, "Continuing claims, which include those receiving unemployment benefits for at least two straight weeks, decreased by 167,000 to 12.58 million during the week ending Sept. 12. Continuing claims data is delayed by one week."

BC

[BostonCard]

It's Thursday, so today is unemployment claims day.

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/09/24/weekly-j...laims.html

At 870,000, the number of first time unemployment claims went up slightly (vs. 860,000 yesterday).  It had been expected to go down a bit, though weekly unemployment claims are noisy.  I also wonder how California pausing filings for a couple weeks will affect the numbers.

In other news, a consensus is developing that come what may, we are unlikely to see a new Coronavirus relief bill.  The senate is expected to be busy with the Supreme Court confirmation until the election at the least.  It is also unclear what a lame duck congress session will do.

The good news, such as it is, is the following, "Continuing claims, which include those receiving unemployment benefits for at least two straight weeks, decreased by 167,000 to 12.58 million during the week ending Sept. 12. Continuing claims data is delayed by one week."

BC

[OutsiderFan]

Maybe Airlines can save themselves by turning into rapid Covid testing providers?  Just need to book a flight and pony up an extra $250! Can't wait for the day the add-ons you get when booking include "would you like to add a rapid Covid test for $250 and 1,000 bonus miles?"

[tweet]https://twitter.com/GretaLWall/status/1309178402918682624[/tweet]

[OutsiderFan]

Maybe Airlines can save themselves by turning into rapid Covid testing providers?  Just need to book a flight and pony up an extra $250! Can't wait for the day the add-ons you get when booking include "would you like to add a rapid Covid test for $250 and 1,000 bonus miles?"

[tweet]https://twitter.com/GretaLWall/status/1309178402918682624[/tweet]

[BostonCard]

[tweet]https://twitter.com/ernietedeschi/status/1309231458876260355?s=20[/tweet]

*Getting sick emoji*

BC

[BostonCard]

[tweet]https://twitter.com/ernietedeschi/status/1309231458876260355?s=20[/tweet]

*Getting sick emoji*

BC

[Mick]

It's Thursday, so today is unemployment claims day.

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/09/24/weekly-j...laims.html

At 870,000, the number of first time unemployment claims went up slightly (vs. 860,000 yesterday).  It had been expected to go down a bit, though weekly unemployment claims are noisy.  I also wonder how California pausing filings for a couple weeks will affect the numbers.

In other news, a consensus is developing that come what may, we are unlikely to see a new Coronavirus relief bill.  The senate is expected to be busy with the Supreme Court confirmation until the election at the least.  It is also unclear what a lame duck congress session will do.

The good news, such as it is, is the following, "Continuing claims, which include those receiving unemployment benefits for at least two straight weeks, decreased by 167,000 to 12.58 million during the week ending Sept. 12. Continuing claims data is delayed by one week."

BC

In the kinda/sorta good news category, people receiving unemployment-related payments from the state and federal governments total 26,044,952, a 3.7 million+ decrease as pandemic-related assistance has wound down.

https://www.dol.gov/ui/data.pdf

[Mick]

It's Thursday, so today is unemployment claims day.

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/09/24/weekly-j...laims.html

At 870,000, the number of first time unemployment claims went up slightly (vs. 860,000 yesterday).  It had been expected to go down a bit, though weekly unemployment claims are noisy.  I also wonder how California pausing filings for a couple weeks will affect the numbers.

In other news, a consensus is developing that come what may, we are unlikely to see a new Coronavirus relief bill.  The senate is expected to be busy with the Supreme Court confirmation until the election at the least.  It is also unclear what a lame duck congress session will do.

The good news, such as it is, is the following, "Continuing claims, which include those receiving unemployment benefits for at least two straight weeks, decreased by 167,000 to 12.58 million during the week ending Sept. 12. Continuing claims data is delayed by one week."

BC

In the kinda/sorta good news category, people receiving unemployment-related payments from the state and federal governments total 26,044,952, a 3.7 million+ decrease as pandemic-related assistance has wound down.

https://www.dol.gov/ui/data.pdf

[BostonCard]

In other good news on a (semi)personal level, starting October 1, my brother will no longer be on that list.  One of his former co-workers left the industry (liquor sales/distributor) and he was first in line to be called back.  He is still looking at just treading water this year, since most of his earnings are on commission, and, as you might imagine, sales to bars and restaurants in San Diego are down something like 70% (most of his territory is in downtown/convention center).

The upshot is that once he emerges on the other side, the company will likely make do with 2 or 3 fewer sales people in the region (out of 7 previously), so his opportunities for commission if and when the business recovers to near pre-COVID levels will be very good for him.

BC

[BostonCard]

In other good news on a (semi)personal level, starting October 1, my brother will no longer be on that list.  One of his former co-workers left the industry (liquor sales/distributor) and he was first in line to be called back.  He is still looking at just treading water this year, since most of his earnings are on commission, and, as you might imagine, sales to bars and restaurants in San Diego are down something like 70% (most of his territory is in downtown/convention center).

The upshot is that once he emerges on the other side, the company will likely make do with 2 or 3 fewer sales people in the region (out of 7 previously), so his opportunities for commission if and when the business recovers to near pre-COVID levels will be very good for him.

BC

[Mick]

In other good news on a (semi)personal level, starting October 1, my brother will no longer be on that list.  One of his former co-workers left the industry (liquor sales/distributor) and he was first in line to be called back.  He is still looking at just treading water this year, since most of his earnings are on commission, and, as you might imagine, sales to bars and restaurants in San Diego are down something like 70% (most of his territory is in downtown/convention center).

The upshot is that once he emerges on the other side, the company will likely make do with 2 or 3 fewer sales people in the region (out of 7 previously), so his opportunities for commission if and when the business recovers to near pre-COVID levels will be very good for him.

BC

Congrats, BC.  Speaking as a guy with a brother in the same neighborhood -- mine is a public defender in San Diego downtown -- I hope he does great.  San Diego is one of my favorite towns.

[Mick]

In other good news on a (semi)personal level, starting October 1, my brother will no longer be on that list.  One of his former co-workers left the industry (liquor sales/distributor) and he was first in line to be called back.  He is still looking at just treading water this year, since most of his earnings are on commission, and, as you might imagine, sales to bars and restaurants in San Diego are down something like 70% (most of his territory is in downtown/convention center).

The upshot is that once he emerges on the other side, the company will likely make do with 2 or 3 fewer sales people in the region (out of 7 previously), so his opportunities for commission if and when the business recovers to near pre-COVID levels will be very good for him.

BC

Congrats, BC.  Speaking as a guy with a brother in the same neighborhood -- mine is a public defender in San Diego downtown -- I hope he does great.  San Diego is one of my favorite towns.

[Genuine Realist]

In other good news on a (semi)personal level, starting October 1, my brother will no longer be on that list.  One of his former co-workers left the industry (liquor sales/distributor) and he was first in line to be called back.  He is still looking at just treading water this year, since most of his earnings are on commission, and, as you might imagine, sales to bars and restaurants in San Diego are down something like 70% (most of his territory is in downtown/convention center).

The upshot is that once he emerges on the other side, the company will likely make do with 2 or 3 fewer sales people in the region (out of 7 previously), so his opportunities for commission if and when the business recovers to near pre-COVID levels will be very good for him.

BC

Congrats, BC.  Speaking as a guy with a brother in the same neighborhood -- mine is a public defender in San Diego downtown -- I hope he does great.  San Diego is one of my favorite towns.

BC,

I'm happy to read this. Congrats to your brother for stamina and resiliency.

GR

[Genuine Realist]

In other good news on a (semi)personal level, starting October 1, my brother will no longer be on that list.  One of his former co-workers left the industry (liquor sales/distributor) and he was first in line to be called back.  He is still looking at just treading water this year, since most of his earnings are on commission, and, as you might imagine, sales to bars and restaurants in San Diego are down something like 70% (most of his territory is in downtown/convention center).

The upshot is that once he emerges on the other side, the company will likely make do with 2 or 3 fewer sales people in the region (out of 7 previously), so his opportunities for commission if and when the business recovers to near pre-COVID levels will be very good for him.

BC

Congrats, BC.  Speaking as a guy with a brother in the same neighborhood -- mine is a public defender in San Diego downtown -- I hope he does great.  San Diego is one of my favorite towns.

BC,

I'm happy to read this. Congrats to your brother for stamina and resiliency.

GR

[terry]

BC, that's good news about your brother. Glad to hear it.

[terry]

BC, that's good news about your brother. Glad to hear it.

[BostonCard]

Thanks guys (though it's all my brother's doing).  I am happy/relieved for him.  And I agree, San Diego is one of my favorite places.  I'm really hoping we can get a Holiday Bowl invitation one of these days (I don't think we've ever been invited).

Less lucky are the 28,000 people being laid off by the (no longer) happiest place on earth.

https://www.latimes.com/entertainment-ar...heme-parks

BC

[BostonCard]

Thanks guys (though it's all my brother's doing).  I am happy/relieved for him.  And I agree, San Diego is one of my favorite places.  I'm really hoping we can get a Holiday Bowl invitation one of these days (I don't think we've ever been invited).

Less lucky are the 28,000 people being laid off by the (no longer) happiest place on earth.

https://www.latimes.com/entertainment-ar...heme-parks

BC

[chrisk]

Thanks guys (though it's all my brother's doing).  I am happy/relieved for him.  And I agree, San Diego is one of my favorite places.  I'm really hoping we can get a Holiday Bowl invitation one of these days (I don't think we've ever been invited).

Less lucky are the 28,000 people being laid off by the (no longer) happiest place on earth.

https://www.latimes.com/entertainment-ar...heme-parks

BC

But Axios is reporting that the White House has rejected the CDC’s plan to extend the cruise ship ban beyond October. It says some at the White House consider Redfield with disdain and say the CDC is a hotbed of the deep state.

Can the forced reopening of Disneyland be far behind?

[chrisk]

Thanks guys (though it's all my brother's doing).  I am happy/relieved for him.  And I agree, San Diego is one of my favorite places.  I'm really hoping we can get a Holiday Bowl invitation one of these days (I don't think we've ever been invited).

Less lucky are the 28,000 people being laid off by the (no longer) happiest place on earth.

https://www.latimes.com/entertainment-ar...heme-parks

BC

But Axios is reporting that the White House has rejected the CDC’s plan to extend the cruise ship ban beyond October. It says some at the White House consider Redfield with disdain and say the CDC is a hotbed of the deep state.

Can the forced reopening of Disneyland be far behind?

[OutsiderFan]

I have never looked more forward to voting in an election. Usually I wait until the last day or two to send ballot in by mail. Next week I plan to drop my ballot off at a drop box and will have never felt better about exercising my right to have a say in who represents me.

[OutsiderFan]

I have never looked more forward to voting in an election. Usually I wait until the last day or two to send ballot in by mail. Next week I plan to drop my ballot off at a drop box and will have never felt better about exercising my right to have a say in who represents me.

[Mick]

837,000 jobs lost.  26,529,810 people taking an unemployment check from the government.

https://www.dol.gov/ui/data.pdf

And so it goes.

[Mick]

837,000 jobs lost.  26,529,810 people taking an unemployment check from the government.

https://www.dol.gov/ui/data.pdf

And so it goes.

[OutsiderFan]

I saw a stat that said 1/3 of incomes are the product of federal government support programs. Farm subsidies, PPP, QE, industry bailouts, extended unemployment benefits, various Fed buyer of last resort programs. 

The U.S. Government spent at least $6 Trillion this year and took in $3 Trillion. This deficit is double the amount that inspired the Tea Party to whine about spending 10 years ago.  Funny how those who howled then are dead saline now.

[OutsiderFan]

I saw a stat that said 1/3 of incomes are the product of federal government support programs. Farm subsidies, PPP, QE, industry bailouts, extended unemployment benefits, various Fed buyer of last resort programs. 

The U.S. Government spent at least $6 Trillion this year and took in $3 Trillion. This deficit is double the amount that inspired the Tea Party to whine about spending 10 years ago.  Funny how those who howled then are dead saline now.

[BostonCard]

First Friday of the month means it's unemployment day.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/...=applenews

Nonfarm payrolls increased by 661,000 following an upwardly revised 1.49 million advance in August, according to the Labor Department Friday. That compared with the median estimate of economists for a gain of 859,000.

The unemployment rate fell by more than forecast, dropping 0.5 percentage point to 7.9%, though the labor-force participation rate declined by 0.3 point to 61.4%, with the decrease particularly pronounced among women.

This is a good thread:

[tweet]https://twitter.com/ModeledBehavior/status/1312018931591376896?s=20[/tweet]

Key quote, "It would be very risky to assume the recovery is self-sustaining at this early stage. When the Recovery Act was past, we were down 5 million jobs. Today fiscal support is already fading and we still have over 10 million to go."

BC

[BostonCard]

First Friday of the month means it's unemployment day.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/...=applenews

Nonfarm payrolls increased by 661,000 following an upwardly revised 1.49 million advance in August, according to the Labor Department Friday. That compared with the median estimate of economists for a gain of 859,000.

The unemployment rate fell by more than forecast, dropping 0.5 percentage point to 7.9%, though the labor-force participation rate declined by 0.3 point to 61.4%, with the decrease particularly pronounced among women.

This is a good thread:

[tweet]https://twitter.com/ModeledBehavior/status/1312018931591376896?s=20[/tweet]

Key quote, "It would be very risky to assume the recovery is self-sustaining at this early stage. When the Recovery Act was past, we were down 5 million jobs. Today fiscal support is already fading and we still have over 10 million to go."

BC

[Mick]

The U.S. Government spent at least $6 Trillion this year and took in $3 Trillion. This deficit is double the amount that inspired the Tea Party to whine about spending 10 years ago.  Funny how those who howled then are dead saline now.

They all got voted out.  We're all addicted to the Fed trough...

[Mick]

The U.S. Government spent at least $6 Trillion this year and took in $3 Trillion. This deficit is double the amount that inspired the Tea Party to whine about spending 10 years ago.  Funny how those who howled then are dead saline now.

They all got voted out.  We're all addicted to the Fed trough...

[Mick]

787,000 initial unemployment claims last week, 856,000 the week before.  Both about 4x the pre-COVID figures.

23,150,427 people claiming payment from federal government initial unemployment programs.

https://www.dol.gov/ui/data.pdf

About 10 million fewer people are employed full-time right now versus a year ago.

https://www.bls.gov/web/empsit/cpseea07.htm

[Mick]

787,000 initial unemployment claims last week, 856,000 the week before.  Both about 4x the pre-COVID figures.

23,150,427 people claiming payment from federal government initial unemployment programs.

https://www.dol.gov/ui/data.pdf

About 10 million fewer people are employed full-time right now versus a year ago.

https://www.bls.gov/web/empsit/cpseea07.htm

[OutsiderFan]

787,000 initial unemployment claims last week, 856,000 the week before.  Both about 4x the pre-COVID figures.

23,150,427 people claiming payment from federal government initial unemployment programs.

https://www.dol.gov/ui/data.pdf

About 10 million fewer people are employed full-time right now versus a year ago.

https://www.bls.gov/web/empsit/cpseea07.htm

So awesome to see this, huh? https://misorobotics.com/

How many jobs will be eliminated by this alone?  WTF is the point folks?  Are we suppose to be taking care of each other, or is everyone suppose to be for themselves, destroying as many lives as they can for themselves to get more, what, exactly?

[OutsiderFan]

787,000 initial unemployment claims last week, 856,000 the week before.  Both about 4x the pre-COVID figures.

23,150,427 people claiming payment from federal government initial unemployment programs.

https://www.dol.gov/ui/data.pdf

About 10 million fewer people are employed full-time right now versus a year ago.

https://www.bls.gov/web/empsit/cpseea07.htm

So awesome to see this, huh? https://misorobotics.com/

How many jobs will be eliminated by this alone?  WTF is the point folks?  Are we suppose to be taking care of each other, or is everyone suppose to be for themselves, destroying as many lives as they can for themselves to get more, what, exactly?

[Mick]

787,000 initial unemployment claims last week, 856,000 the week before.  Both about 4x the pre-COVID figures.

23,150,427 people claiming payment from federal government initial unemployment programs.

https://www.dol.gov/ui/data.pdf

About 10 million fewer people are employed full-time right now versus a year ago.

https://www.bls.gov/web/empsit/cpseea07.htm

So awesome to see this, huh? https://misorobotics.com/

How many jobs will be eliminated by this alone?  WTF is the point folks?  Are we suppose to be taking care of each other, or is everyone suppose to be for themselves, destroying as many lives as they can for themselves to get more, what, exactly?

Well, I think we're probably getting what we deserve.  We're going from a president whose pre-COVID economic approach resulted in a lot more money for billionaires, a little more money for the upper and middle classes and a sliver more money for the rest; to Joe Biden who will likely rebalance the scales in a non-dramatic way; e.g., higher federal income taxes. I don't expect Biden will address the issue to which you are referring, though.  We won't see wealth taxes or inheritance taxes, not under Biden, who will be (I assume) as beholden to Wall Street as any other standard Democrat.  And I doubt he will do anything other than wring hands when unemployment gradually rises because of automation.  As Trump pointed out, he's been part of the system for 47 years, VP for eight years. Why would the basics change?

And to the point of those basics, the COVID crisis has a ways to run. I wonder how effective Biden/Harris will be? Will they do anything materially different from what Trump did? We'll see.

I don't anticipate Joe will be in office all that long.  He's clearly deteriorating.  The 25th amendment might actually work on him.  So what will be interesting is what President Harris will do. Keep in mind, she was a candidate who pulled out of the Democratic primaries on December 3, before seven other candidates withdrew and eight who stuck it out to the end, making her #16 in popularity among Democrats), you will have a President who was quite clearly very unpopular within her own party.  Donald Trump had ten times as many write-in votes in the Democratic New Hampshire primary (1,217) than Harris (129).  Incidentally, based on that measure, if Biden was limited to female VP candidates of color, he would have been better off with Tulsi Gabbard, who received 9,755 votes in New Hampshire.

I wonder how Harris felt when she received the VP nomination.  Basically a political nonentity outside of California, who had trouble connecting with voters, can you imagine how fortunate she must have felt?  And now, sooner or later, she's going to become President.  She certainly thinks of herself as President, given her repeated references to the "Biden-Harris Presidency."

I would expect a more Progressive/Socialist response from Kamala Harris than Joe Biden -- in all its forms, including higher taxes across the board, universal health care, basic guaranteed income, and other restrictions on the wealthy.  Should get interesting.

[Mick]

787,000 initial unemployment claims last week, 856,000 the week before.  Both about 4x the pre-COVID figures.

23,150,427 people claiming payment from federal government initial unemployment programs.

https://www.dol.gov/ui/data.pdf

About 10 million fewer people are employed full-time right now versus a year ago.

https://www.bls.gov/web/empsit/cpseea07.htm

So awesome to see this, huh? https://misorobotics.com/

How many jobs will be eliminated by this alone?  WTF is the point folks?  Are we suppose to be taking care of each other, or is everyone suppose to be for themselves, destroying as many lives as they can for themselves to get more, what, exactly?

Well, I think we're probably getting what we deserve.  We're going from a president whose pre-COVID economic approach resulted in a lot more money for billionaires, a little more money for the upper and middle classes and a sliver more money for the rest; to Joe Biden who will likely rebalance the scales in a non-dramatic way; e.g., higher federal income taxes. I don't expect Biden will address the issue to which you are referring, though.  We won't see wealth taxes or inheritance taxes, not under Biden, who will be (I assume) as beholden to Wall Street as any other standard Democrat.  And I doubt he will do anything other than wring hands when unemployment gradually rises because of automation.  As Trump pointed out, he's been part of the system for 47 years, VP for eight years. Why would the basics change?

And to the point of those basics, the COVID crisis has a ways to run. I wonder how effective Biden/Harris will be? Will they do anything materially different from what Trump did? We'll see.

I don't anticipate Joe will be in office all that long.  He's clearly deteriorating.  The 25th amendment might actually work on him.  So what will be interesting is what President Harris will do. Keep in mind, she was a candidate who pulled out of the Democratic primaries on December 3, before seven other candidates withdrew and eight who stuck it out to the end, making her #16 in popularity among Democrats), you will have a President who was quite clearly very unpopular within her own party.  Donald Trump had ten times as many write-in votes in the Democratic New Hampshire primary (1,217) than Harris (129).  Incidentally, based on that measure, if Biden was limited to female VP candidates of color, he would have been better off with Tulsi Gabbard, who received 9,755 votes in New Hampshire.

I wonder how Harris felt when she received the VP nomination.  Basically a political nonentity outside of California, who had trouble connecting with voters, can you imagine how fortunate she must have felt?  And now, sooner or later, she's going to become President.  She certainly thinks of herself as President, given her repeated references to the "Biden-Harris Presidency."

I would expect a more Progressive/Socialist response from Kamala Harris than Joe Biden -- in all its forms, including higher taxes across the board, universal health care, basic guaranteed income, and other restrictions on the wealthy.  Should get interesting.

[dabigv13]

Conservatives talk about Trump Derangement Syndrome, and yet are convinced Joe Biden will be declared incapable by his own cabinet in short order. It's silly.

[dabigv13]

Conservatives talk about Trump Derangement Syndrome, and yet are convinced Joe Biden will be declared incapable by his own cabinet in short order. It's silly.

[teejers1]

Conservatives talk about Trump Derangement Syndrome, and yet are convinced Joe Biden will be declared incapable by his own cabinet in short order. It's silly.

It wouldn't shock me if Joe loses it before his four years are up . . . but I don't expect it in short order.  And it's certainly possible he gets through the first term just fine.

The interesting part will be the NEXT election, and specifically, how many Dems will want "back in" for the open seat?  Harris may think she will have "paid her dues" by then, but I'm thinking that won't fly within the party.

Should be very intriguing.

[teejers1]

Conservatives talk about Trump Derangement Syndrome, and yet are convinced Joe Biden will be declared incapable by his own cabinet in short order. It's silly.

It wouldn't shock me if Joe loses it before his four years are up . . . but I don't expect it in short order.  And it's certainly possible he gets through the first term just fine.

The interesting part will be the NEXT election, and specifically, how many Dems will want "back in" for the open seat?  Harris may think she will have "paid her dues" by then, but I'm thinking that won't fly within the party.

Should be very intriguing.