11-03-2020, 08:51 PM
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Trump outperforming in counties with high Covid-19 death rates
Trump outperforming in counties with high Covid-19 death rates
11-03-2020, 09:13 PM
It is possible that the people who reside in those counties have different values than you do and prioritize different things than minimizing the number of deaths. Just because they don't share my priorities doesn't mean I think they are idiots.
And consider the possibility that even if they did have values that more closely aligned with you, they are unlikely to politically align with a group of people who thinks they are idiots.
BC
And consider the possibility that even if they did have values that more closely aligned with you, they are unlikely to politically align with a group of people who thinks they are idiots.
BC
It is possible that the people who reside in those counties have different values than you do and prioritize different things than minimizing the number of deaths. Just because they don't share my priorities doesn't mean I think they are idiots.
And consider the possibility that even if they did have values that more closely aligned with you, they are unlikely to politically align with a group of people who thinks they are idiots.
BC
And consider the possibility that even if they did have values that more closely aligned with you, they are unlikely to politically align with a group of people who thinks they are idiots.
BC
11-03-2020, 09:34 PM
(11-03-2020, 08:51 PM)JustAnotherFan Wrote: A nation of idiots.How unlucky for you, an island of elitist intelligence in an ocean of idiots.
[twitter] https://twitter.com/bradheath/status/132...1178948615 [/twitter]
The better question is why Trump is doing well despite the Covid issue. The likely answer is that the voters see more negatives in the Democratic Party than they do in Trump. That was the actual story in 2016. I didn't think it would happen again, but maybe so. What is a certainty is that the Democrats learned absolutely nothing.
I wouldn't give you two cents for all your fancy rules if, behind them, they didn't have a little bit of plain, ordinary, everyday kindness - yeah, and a little looking out for the other fella, too.
(11-03-2020, 08:51 PM)JustAnotherFan Wrote: A nation of idiots.How unlucky for you, an island of elitist intelligence in an ocean of idiots.
[twitter] https://twitter.com/bradheath/status/132...1178948615 [/twitter]
The better question is why Trump is doing well despite the Covid issue. The likely answer is that the voters see more negatives in the Democratic Party than they do in Trump. That was the actual story in 2016. I didn't think it would happen again, but maybe so. What is a certainty is that the Democrats learned absolutely nothing.
I wouldn't give you two cents for all your fancy rules if, behind them, they didn't have a little bit of plain, ordinary, everyday kindness - yeah, and a little looking out for the other fella, too.
11-03-2020, 09:53 PM
(11-03-2020, 09:13 PM)BostonCard Wrote: It is possible that the people who reside in those counties have different values than you do and prioritize different things than minimizing the number of deaths. Just because they don't share my priorities doesn't mean I think they are idiots.
And consider the possibility that even if they did have values that more closely aligned with you, they are unlikely to politically align with a group of people who thinks they are idiots.
BC
You're my next write-in vote, BC...
Audaces fortuna iuvat
(11-03-2020, 09:13 PM)BostonCard Wrote: It is possible that the people who reside in those counties have different values than you do and prioritize different things than minimizing the number of deaths. Just because they don't share my priorities doesn't mean I think they are idiots.
And consider the possibility that even if they did have values that more closely aligned with you, they are unlikely to politically align with a group of people who thinks they are idiots.
BC
You're my next write-in vote, BC...
Audaces fortuna iuvat
11-03-2020, 10:33 PM
If you think about it, one can get there logically.
Imagine you've been told this big bad event is a comin'. And for the last three weeks the media has told the world that the wave has hit your area of the world. Thing is, unless you are in the hospital, you may think the wave is no big deal. With hospitalization rates and death rates improving all of the time, it is possible you even know a number of people that got COVID and are fine.
You may not realize some in your town have died as they are unlikely to be updating Facebook, Instagram or Twitter with such info, but even if a few died you may prefer that to accept fate and freedom over sheltering in your home for months.
Given that up close view of the allegedly scary second wave, you now realize those tax and spend socialists from California, like Kamala, and Basement Biden are a bunch of wimps.
The other thing I have heard also can fit. Given you live in a county with COVID deaths you can't help but realize ole Joe is rather close to death too. And while you are OK with Joe, you definitely don't want Kamala and Nancy running the country. I heard that succession concern on a cable news interview of a voter in a swing state.
There are loads of other logical reasons to vote for Trump. Fear of Nancy and the socialists taxing income generating businesses, like farms, or eliminating rural-oriented subsidies might be in play too.
Guess we will all get to see just how many ballots are still with the USPS, and no matter the outcome we will be a nation deeply divided now. Sigh...this will be a bad 6 months to be divided as a nation, and I fear the stock market will quickly incorporate that uncertainty tomorrow.
On a different topic....I am going to conclude that 538 should change its name to something related to sports probabilities because when it comes to political predictions they are not very good at forecasting outcomes.
Imagine you've been told this big bad event is a comin'. And for the last three weeks the media has told the world that the wave has hit your area of the world. Thing is, unless you are in the hospital, you may think the wave is no big deal. With hospitalization rates and death rates improving all of the time, it is possible you even know a number of people that got COVID and are fine.
You may not realize some in your town have died as they are unlikely to be updating Facebook, Instagram or Twitter with such info, but even if a few died you may prefer that to accept fate and freedom over sheltering in your home for months.
Given that up close view of the allegedly scary second wave, you now realize those tax and spend socialists from California, like Kamala, and Basement Biden are a bunch of wimps.
The other thing I have heard also can fit. Given you live in a county with COVID deaths you can't help but realize ole Joe is rather close to death too. And while you are OK with Joe, you definitely don't want Kamala and Nancy running the country. I heard that succession concern on a cable news interview of a voter in a swing state.
There are loads of other logical reasons to vote for Trump. Fear of Nancy and the socialists taxing income generating businesses, like farms, or eliminating rural-oriented subsidies might be in play too.
Guess we will all get to see just how many ballots are still with the USPS, and no matter the outcome we will be a nation deeply divided now. Sigh...this will be a bad 6 months to be divided as a nation, and I fear the stock market will quickly incorporate that uncertainty tomorrow.
On a different topic....I am going to conclude that 538 should change its name to something related to sports probabilities because when it comes to political predictions they are not very good at forecasting outcomes.
If you think about it, one can get there logically.
Imagine you've been told this big bad event is a comin'. And for the last three weeks the media has told the world that the wave has hit your area of the world. Thing is, unless you are in the hospital, you may think the wave is no big deal. With hospitalization rates and death rates improving all of the time, it is possible you even know a number of people that got COVID and are fine.
You may not realize some in your town have died as they are unlikely to be updating Facebook, Instagram or Twitter with such info, but even if a few died you may prefer that to accept fate and freedom over sheltering in your home for months.
Given that up close view of the allegedly scary second wave, you now realize those tax and spend socialists from California, like Kamala, and Basement Biden are a bunch of wimps.
The other thing I have heard also can fit. Given you live in a county with COVID deaths you can't help but realize ole Joe is rather close to death too. And while you are OK with Joe, you definitely don't want Kamala and Nancy running the country. I heard that succession concern on a cable news interview of a voter in a swing state.
There are loads of other logical reasons to vote for Trump. Fear of Nancy and the socialists taxing income generating businesses, like farms, or eliminating rural-oriented subsidies might be in play too.
Guess we will all get to see just how many ballots are still with the USPS, and no matter the outcome we will be a nation deeply divided now. Sigh...this will be a bad 6 months to be divided as a nation, and I fear the stock market will quickly incorporate that uncertainty tomorrow.
On a different topic....I am going to conclude that 538 should change its name to something related to sports probabilities because when it comes to political predictions they are not very good at forecasting outcomes.
Imagine you've been told this big bad event is a comin'. And for the last three weeks the media has told the world that the wave has hit your area of the world. Thing is, unless you are in the hospital, you may think the wave is no big deal. With hospitalization rates and death rates improving all of the time, it is possible you even know a number of people that got COVID and are fine.
You may not realize some in your town have died as they are unlikely to be updating Facebook, Instagram or Twitter with such info, but even if a few died you may prefer that to accept fate and freedom over sheltering in your home for months.
Given that up close view of the allegedly scary second wave, you now realize those tax and spend socialists from California, like Kamala, and Basement Biden are a bunch of wimps.
The other thing I have heard also can fit. Given you live in a county with COVID deaths you can't help but realize ole Joe is rather close to death too. And while you are OK with Joe, you definitely don't want Kamala and Nancy running the country. I heard that succession concern on a cable news interview of a voter in a swing state.
There are loads of other logical reasons to vote for Trump. Fear of Nancy and the socialists taxing income generating businesses, like farms, or eliminating rural-oriented subsidies might be in play too.
Guess we will all get to see just how many ballots are still with the USPS, and no matter the outcome we will be a nation deeply divided now. Sigh...this will be a bad 6 months to be divided as a nation, and I fear the stock market will quickly incorporate that uncertainty tomorrow.
On a different topic....I am going to conclude that 538 should change its name to something related to sports probabilities because when it comes to political predictions they are not very good at forecasting outcomes.
11-03-2020, 10:37 PM
I think what 538 does is good and interesting, but the effect it has had on the mainstream understanding of political races is not good. Was ok when it was a novelty for the whiz kids.
11-03-2020, 11:01 PM
What exactly has 538 gotten wrong so far? The major trump win has been Florida, which 538 gave him a 1 in 3 chance of doing.
11-03-2020, 11:17 PM
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/11/01/opini...flaws.html
This from Zeynep Tufekci, who has been very on point regarding the pandemic as well, was very good on election models IMHO.
This from Zeynep Tufekci, who has been very on point regarding the pandemic as well, was very good on election models IMHO.
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/11/01/opini...flaws.html
This from Zeynep Tufekci, who has been very on point regarding the pandemic as well, was very good on election models IMHO.
This from Zeynep Tufekci, who has been very on point regarding the pandemic as well, was very good on election models IMHO.
11-03-2020, 11:40 PM
"All models are wrong; some models are useful."
-- George Box
How useful you find the election models is up to you.
BC
-- George Box
How useful you find the election models is up to you.
BC
"All models are wrong; some models are useful."
-- George Box
How useful you find the election models is up to you.
BC
-- George Box
How useful you find the election models is up to you.
BC
11-04-2020, 06:27 AM
(11-03-2020, 09:13 PM)BostonCard Wrote: It is possible that the people who reside in those counties have different values than you do and prioritize different things than minimizing the number of deaths. Just because they don't share my priorities doesn't mean I think they are idiots.
And consider the possibility that even if they did have values that more closely aligned with you, they are unlikely to politically align with a group of people who thinks they are idiots.
BC
Don't worry, I think the Democrats are idiots, as well.
(11-03-2020, 09:13 PM)BostonCard Wrote: It is possible that the people who reside in those counties have different values than you do and prioritize different things than minimizing the number of deaths. Just because they don't share my priorities doesn't mean I think they are idiots.
And consider the possibility that even if they did have values that more closely aligned with you, they are unlikely to politically align with a group of people who thinks they are idiots.
BC
Don't worry, I think the Democrats are idiots, as well.
11-04-2020, 07:52 AM
(11-03-2020, 11:01 PM)g1313 Wrote: What exactly has 538 gotten wrong so far? The major trump winMissed on Florida, as you noted.Quote:has been Florida, which 538 gave him a 1 in 3 chance of doing.
Then, like most, 538 had projections of Biden winning Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania by margins beyond what is posted at the moment. The result will be outside of their 80% of the results window. A number of senate projections and odds were off too.
The problem is that each election is a discrete event, so the quick and visually appealing probability is just not the way to go. Would Biden win 90% of the time if Biden and Trump could hit a magical mulligan button. Tend to doubt it.
Back to COVID, if Trump wins by a few thousands votes in NV and/or ME#2 or if Biden wins by taking ME #2, NV, MI and WI the net result will be that many in DC will rightfully conclude THEIR constituents don't actually want compromise.
COVID19 will thrive with the dysfunctional federal government I expect we will see.
Sure hope the vaccines work and are available as soon as POTUS45 promised.
(11-03-2020, 11:01 PM)g1313 Wrote: What exactly has 538 gotten wrong so far? The major trump winMissed on Florida, as you noted.Quote:has been Florida, which 538 gave him a 1 in 3 chance of doing.
Then, like most, 538 had projections of Biden winning Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania by margins beyond what is posted at the moment. The result will be outside of their 80% of the results window. A number of senate projections and odds were off too.
The problem is that each election is a discrete event, so the quick and visually appealing probability is just not the way to go. Would Biden win 90% of the time if Biden and Trump could hit a magical mulligan button. Tend to doubt it.
Back to COVID, if Trump wins by a few thousands votes in NV and/or ME#2 or if Biden wins by taking ME #2, NV, MI and WI the net result will be that many in DC will rightfully conclude THEIR constituents don't actually want compromise.
COVID19 will thrive with the dysfunctional federal government I expect we will see.
Sure hope the vaccines work and are available as soon as POTUS45 promised.
11-04-2020, 09:15 AM
Yeah, it is looking worse this morning for their predictions, and even though I think Nate Silver generally does a good job acknowledging the weaknesses of the data, I am seeing some defensiveness on their blog this morning (Acknowledging misses in Florida and Southeast, but "hey the votes are not all in" in midwest and Nevada which were also big misses on margin which are unlikely to be made up in outstanding votes). They also acknowledged that there might be a systemic polling underestimate of Trump like in 2016, but everyone was trying to correct for that, with apparently little success.
I'm a little more hopeful that with Trump gone, as appears still likely, even with no clear mandate in the Senate, COVID policies will be more rational, even if there is little progress on other liberal goals.
I'm a little more hopeful that with Trump gone, as appears still likely, even with no clear mandate in the Senate, COVID policies will be more rational, even if there is little progress on other liberal goals.
(11-04-2020, 07:52 AM)Farm93 Wrote:(11-03-2020, 11:01 PM)g1313 Wrote: What exactly has 538 gotten wrong so far? The major trump winMissed on Florida, as you noted.Quote:has been Florida, which 538 gave him a 1 in 3 chance of doing.
Then, like most, 538 had projections of Biden winning Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania by margins beyond what is posted at the moment. The result will be outside of their 80% of the results window. A number of senate projections and odds were off too.
The problem is that each election is a discrete event, so the quick and visually appealing probability is just not the way to go. Would Biden win 90% of the time if Biden and Trump could hit a magical mulligan button. Tend to doubt it.
Back to COVID, if Trump wins by a few thousands votes in NV and/or ME#2 or if Biden wins by taking ME #2, NV, MI and WI the net result will be that many in DC will rightfully conclude THEIR constituents don't actually want compromise.
COVID19 will thrive with the dysfunctional federal government I expect we will see.
Sure hope the vaccines work and are available as soon as POTUS45 promised.
Yeah, it is looking worse this morning for their predictions, and even though I think Nate Silver generally does a good job acknowledging the weaknesses of the data, I am seeing some defensiveness on their blog this morning (Acknowledging misses in Florida and Southeast, but "hey the votes are not all in" in midwest and Nevada which were also big misses on margin which are unlikely to be made up in outstanding votes). They also acknowledged that there might be a systemic polling underestimate of Trump like in 2016, but everyone was trying to correct for that, with apparently little success.
I'm a little more hopeful that with Trump gone, as appears still likely, even with no clear mandate in the Senate, COVID policies will be more rational, even if there is little progress on other liberal goals.
I'm a little more hopeful that with Trump gone, as appears still likely, even with no clear mandate in the Senate, COVID policies will be more rational, even if there is little progress on other liberal goals.
(11-04-2020, 07:52 AM)Farm93 Wrote:(11-03-2020, 11:01 PM)g1313 Wrote: What exactly has 538 gotten wrong so far? The major trump winMissed on Florida, as you noted.Quote:has been Florida, which 538 gave him a 1 in 3 chance of doing.
Then, like most, 538 had projections of Biden winning Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania by margins beyond what is posted at the moment. The result will be outside of their 80% of the results window. A number of senate projections and odds were off too.
The problem is that each election is a discrete event, so the quick and visually appealing probability is just not the way to go. Would Biden win 90% of the time if Biden and Trump could hit a magical mulligan button. Tend to doubt it.
Back to COVID, if Trump wins by a few thousands votes in NV and/or ME#2 or if Biden wins by taking ME #2, NV, MI and WI the net result will be that many in DC will rightfully conclude THEIR constituents don't actually want compromise.
COVID19 will thrive with the dysfunctional federal government I expect we will see.
Sure hope the vaccines work and are available as soon as POTUS45 promised.
11-04-2020, 10:05 AM
(11-04-2020, 09:15 AM)g1313 Wrote: Yeah, it is looking worse this morning for their predictions, and even though I think Nate Silver generally does a good job acknowledging the weaknesses of the data, I am seeing some defensiveness on their blog this morning (Acknowledging misses in Florida and Southeast, but "hey the votes are not all in" in midwest and Nevada which were also big misses on margin which are unlikely to be made up in outstanding votes). They also acknowledged that there might be a systemic polling underestimate of Trump like in 2016, but everyone was trying to correct for that, with apparently little success.My own hope is for a Biden win at the Presidential level, but a Republican Senate.
I'm a little more hopeful that with Trump gone, as appears still likely, even with no clear mandate in the Senate, COVID policies will be more rational, even if there is little progress on other liberal goals.
(11-04-2020, 07:52 AM)Farm93 Wrote: [quote="g1313" pid='295263' dateline='1604469661']Missed on Florida, as you noted.
What exactly has 538 gotten wrong so far? The major trump winQuote:has been Florida, which 538 gave him a 1 in 3 chance of doing.
Then, like most, 538 had projections of Biden winning Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania by margins beyond what is posted at the moment. The result will be outside of their 80% of the results window. A number of senate projections and odds were off too.
The problem is that each election is a discrete event, so the quick and visually appealing probability is just not the way to go. Would Biden win 90% of the time if Biden and Trump could hit a magical mulligan button. Tend to doubt it.
Back to COVID, if Trump wins by a few thousands votes in NV and/or ME#2 or if Biden wins by taking ME #2, NV, MI and WI the net result will be that many in DC will rightfully conclude THEIR constituents don't actually want compromise.
COVID19 will thrive with the dysfunctional federal government I expect we will see.
Sure hope the vaccines work and are available as soon as POTUS45 promised.
I wouldn't give you two cents for all your fancy rules if, behind them, they didn't have a little bit of plain, ordinary, everyday kindness - yeah, and a little looking out for the other fella, too.
(11-04-2020, 09:15 AM)g1313 Wrote: Yeah, it is looking worse this morning for their predictions, and even though I think Nate Silver generally does a good job acknowledging the weaknesses of the data, I am seeing some defensiveness on their blog this morning (Acknowledging misses in Florida and Southeast, but "hey the votes are not all in" in midwest and Nevada which were also big misses on margin which are unlikely to be made up in outstanding votes). They also acknowledged that there might be a systemic polling underestimate of Trump like in 2016, but everyone was trying to correct for that, with apparently little success.My own hope is for a Biden win at the Presidential level, but a Republican Senate.
I'm a little more hopeful that with Trump gone, as appears still likely, even with no clear mandate in the Senate, COVID policies will be more rational, even if there is little progress on other liberal goals.
(11-04-2020, 07:52 AM)Farm93 Wrote: [quote="g1313" pid='295263' dateline='1604469661']Missed on Florida, as you noted.
What exactly has 538 gotten wrong so far? The major trump winQuote:has been Florida, which 538 gave him a 1 in 3 chance of doing.
Then, like most, 538 had projections of Biden winning Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania by margins beyond what is posted at the moment. The result will be outside of their 80% of the results window. A number of senate projections and odds were off too.
The problem is that each election is a discrete event, so the quick and visually appealing probability is just not the way to go. Would Biden win 90% of the time if Biden and Trump could hit a magical mulligan button. Tend to doubt it.
Back to COVID, if Trump wins by a few thousands votes in NV and/or ME#2 or if Biden wins by taking ME #2, NV, MI and WI the net result will be that many in DC will rightfully conclude THEIR constituents don't actually want compromise.
COVID19 will thrive with the dysfunctional federal government I expect we will see.
Sure hope the vaccines work and are available as soon as POTUS45 promised.
I wouldn't give you two cents for all your fancy rules if, behind them, they didn't have a little bit of plain, ordinary, everyday kindness - yeah, and a little looking out for the other fella, too.
11-04-2020, 01:02 PM
(11-04-2020, 10:05 AM)Genuine Realist Wrote: My own hope is for a Biden win at the Presidential level, but a Republican Senate.My own hope is that Biden wins and trys to govern towards the center. Having a Republicab Senate can help that or hinder that, depending on how both sides approach the situation. There are some issues on which this country is so polarized that nobody can solve them right now. Stay away from those. Fight the battles on which some kind of agreement is possible. COVID-19 policy is likely one of those areas where agreement IS possible. Not sure it will totally happen, but it can.
My fear is that the rest of the Democratic party will force Biden to deal with issues that are so divisive that no consensus is remotely possible right now. If that happens, gridlock and worse continues. Two years from now, if Congress and the President have learned to at least listen civilly to each other, some controversial issues can be tackled by people of good will. We need the "good will" part first.
(11-04-2020, 10:05 AM)Genuine Realist Wrote: My own hope is for a Biden win at the Presidential level, but a Republican Senate.My own hope is that Biden wins and trys to govern towards the center. Having a Republicab Senate can help that or hinder that, depending on how both sides approach the situation. There are some issues on which this country is so polarized that nobody can solve them right now. Stay away from those. Fight the battles on which some kind of agreement is possible. COVID-19 policy is likely one of those areas where agreement IS possible. Not sure it will totally happen, but it can.
My fear is that the rest of the Democratic party will force Biden to deal with issues that are so divisive that no consensus is remotely possible right now. If that happens, gridlock and worse continues. Two years from now, if Congress and the President have learned to at least listen civilly to each other, some controversial issues can be tackled by people of good will. We need the "good will" part first.
Mitch will run the same obstruction playbook he used on Obama, but maybe even more hardlined since he has a solid conservative SCOTUS sewed up. Divisiveness and polarization will get worse.
Economists were favoring Dem total control. Any stimulus now likelier smaller, less likely to include money for states and cities where it is badly needed.
Economists were favoring Dem total control. Any stimulus now likelier smaller, less likely to include money for states and cities where it is badly needed.
Mitch will run the same obstruction playbook he used on Obama, but maybe even more hardlined since he has a solid conservative SCOTUS sewed up. Divisiveness and polarization will get worse.
Economists were favoring Dem total control. Any stimulus now likelier smaller, less likely to include money for states and cities where it is badly needed.
Economists were favoring Dem total control. Any stimulus now likelier smaller, less likely to include money for states and cities where it is badly needed.
11-04-2020, 05:50 PM
(11-04-2020, 01:06 PM)dabigv13 Wrote: Mitch will run the same obstruction playbook he used on Obama, but maybe even more hardlined since he has a solid conservative SCOTUS sewed up. Divisiveness and polarization will get worse.
Economists were favoring Dem total control. Any stimulus now likelier smaller, less likely to include money for states and cities where it is badly needed.
The only thing I see possibly changing this is a rapid-fire series of local government layoffs and terminations of contracts followed by a big drop in the almighty Dow.
(11-04-2020, 01:06 PM)dabigv13 Wrote: Mitch will run the same obstruction playbook he used on Obama, but maybe even more hardlined since he has a solid conservative SCOTUS sewed up. Divisiveness and polarization will get worse.
Economists were favoring Dem total control. Any stimulus now likelier smaller, less likely to include money for states and cities where it is badly needed.
The only thing I see possibly changing this is a rapid-fire series of local government layoffs and terminations of contracts followed by a big drop in the almighty Dow.
11-04-2020, 07:21 PM
(11-04-2020, 01:06 PM)dabigv13 Wrote: Mitch will run the same obstruction playbook he used on Obama, but maybe even more hardlined since he has a solid conservative SCOTUS sewed up. Divisiveness and polarization will get worse.Sadly, you could be right. I however hope that the career politician Biden can sit down with some of his "old friends" in the Senate ant cut some deals. Biden will agree not to push certain things in return for Senate cooperation on other things. Making sausage perhaps, but it is better than the gridlock alternative. As I have said elsewhere, I fear Biden's party will not let him do this. Hopefully, he can tell them it is necessary and go for it.
(11-04-2020, 01:06 PM)dabigv13 Wrote: Mitch will run the same obstruction playbook he used on Obama, but maybe even more hardlined since he has a solid conservative SCOTUS sewed up. Divisiveness and polarization will get worse.Sadly, you could be right. I however hope that the career politician Biden can sit down with some of his "old friends" in the Senate ant cut some deals. Biden will agree not to push certain things in return for Senate cooperation on other things. Making sausage perhaps, but it is better than the gridlock alternative. As I have said elsewhere, I fear Biden's party will not let him do this. Hopefully, he can tell them it is necessary and go for it.
11-04-2020, 07:59 PM
There were 15 states (or congressional districts) rated 99% win probability for BIden; he captured all 15.
There were 7 states or CDs rated as between 90 and 99% win probability for Biden (Oregon, NM, ME, CO, MN, WI, MI); he captured all 7.
There were three states with win probabilities between 75% and 90% (NH, NV, PA); he won one, is leading in one, and is trailing in one (but looks to come back and win PA).
There were six states/CDs (AZ, NE2, Florida, NC, ME2, and Georgia) where Biden was favored between 50% and 75%. He lost Florida and ME2, and will likely lose NC. He won NE2 and is on track to win AZ (it has been called by some, but not all media groups). Georgia is on a knife's edge, depending on how the outstanding ballots come in.
There were three states (OH, IA, TX) where Trump was favored to win between 50% and 75% of the time. He won all three.
There were three states (MT, SC, AK) where Trump was favored to win between 75% and 90% of the time. He won all three.
There were nine states where Trump was favored to win between 90% and 99% of the time; he won all of them.
Trump was favored in the remaining 10 states/CDs by 99% or more and obviously he won all of them.
The percentages seem to have been well-calibrated, pending the outcomes of PA and NV.
BC
There were 7 states or CDs rated as between 90 and 99% win probability for Biden (Oregon, NM, ME, CO, MN, WI, MI); he captured all 7.
There were three states with win probabilities between 75% and 90% (NH, NV, PA); he won one, is leading in one, and is trailing in one (but looks to come back and win PA).
There were six states/CDs (AZ, NE2, Florida, NC, ME2, and Georgia) where Biden was favored between 50% and 75%. He lost Florida and ME2, and will likely lose NC. He won NE2 and is on track to win AZ (it has been called by some, but not all media groups). Georgia is on a knife's edge, depending on how the outstanding ballots come in.
There were three states (OH, IA, TX) where Trump was favored to win between 50% and 75% of the time. He won all three.
There were three states (MT, SC, AK) where Trump was favored to win between 75% and 90% of the time. He won all three.
There were nine states where Trump was favored to win between 90% and 99% of the time; he won all of them.
Trump was favored in the remaining 10 states/CDs by 99% or more and obviously he won all of them.
The percentages seem to have been well-calibrated, pending the outcomes of PA and NV.
BC
There were 15 states (or congressional districts) rated 99% win probability for BIden; he captured all 15.
There were 7 states or CDs rated as between 90 and 99% win probability for Biden (Oregon, NM, ME, CO, MN, WI, MI); he captured all 7.
There were three states with win probabilities between 75% and 90% (NH, NV, PA); he won one, is leading in one, and is trailing in one (but looks to come back and win PA).
There were six states/CDs (AZ, NE2, Florida, NC, ME2, and Georgia) where Biden was favored between 50% and 75%. He lost Florida and ME2, and will likely lose NC. He won NE2 and is on track to win AZ (it has been called by some, but not all media groups). Georgia is on a knife's edge, depending on how the outstanding ballots come in.
There were three states (OH, IA, TX) where Trump was favored to win between 50% and 75% of the time. He won all three.
There were three states (MT, SC, AK) where Trump was favored to win between 75% and 90% of the time. He won all three.
There were nine states where Trump was favored to win between 90% and 99% of the time; he won all of them.
Trump was favored in the remaining 10 states/CDs by 99% or more and obviously he won all of them.
The percentages seem to have been well-calibrated, pending the outcomes of PA and NV.
BC
There were 7 states or CDs rated as between 90 and 99% win probability for Biden (Oregon, NM, ME, CO, MN, WI, MI); he captured all 7.
There were three states with win probabilities between 75% and 90% (NH, NV, PA); he won one, is leading in one, and is trailing in one (but looks to come back and win PA).
There were six states/CDs (AZ, NE2, Florida, NC, ME2, and Georgia) where Biden was favored between 50% and 75%. He lost Florida and ME2, and will likely lose NC. He won NE2 and is on track to win AZ (it has been called by some, but not all media groups). Georgia is on a knife's edge, depending on how the outstanding ballots come in.
There were three states (OH, IA, TX) where Trump was favored to win between 50% and 75% of the time. He won all three.
There were three states (MT, SC, AK) where Trump was favored to win between 75% and 90% of the time. He won all three.
There were nine states where Trump was favored to win between 90% and 99% of the time; he won all of them.
Trump was favored in the remaining 10 states/CDs by 99% or more and obviously he won all of them.
The percentages seem to have been well-calibrated, pending the outcomes of PA and NV.
BC
11-04-2020, 08:55 PM
The pollsters took steps to corrects some of the factors for the miss in 2016 but new factors and shifts in this cycle caused them new problems.
The polls were likely affected by the increased turnout which may have leaned more Trump than anticipated. The heavily Cuban vote in South Florida was even more of a factor this time and was not entirely offset by shifts toward Biden near Jacksonville and in northern Florida.
Using polls to call outcomes has limited use in any case. The more important use is to detect trends that can help politicians to tailor their messages and advertising to certain demographics. The polls the general public sees will never be detailed enough to make important personal decisions. For people who have big financial interests in the outcome, they have PACS and lobbyists.
The polls were likely affected by the increased turnout which may have leaned more Trump than anticipated. The heavily Cuban vote in South Florida was even more of a factor this time and was not entirely offset by shifts toward Biden near Jacksonville and in northern Florida.
Using polls to call outcomes has limited use in any case. The more important use is to detect trends that can help politicians to tailor their messages and advertising to certain demographics. The polls the general public sees will never be detailed enough to make important personal decisions. For people who have big financial interests in the outcome, they have PACS and lobbyists.
The pollsters took steps to corrects some of the factors for the miss in 2016 but new factors and shifts in this cycle caused them new problems.
The polls were likely affected by the increased turnout which may have leaned more Trump than anticipated. The heavily Cuban vote in South Florida was even more of a factor this time and was not entirely offset by shifts toward Biden near Jacksonville and in northern Florida.
Using polls to call outcomes has limited use in any case. The more important use is to detect trends that can help politicians to tailor their messages and advertising to certain demographics. The polls the general public sees will never be detailed enough to make important personal decisions. For people who have big financial interests in the outcome, they have PACS and lobbyists.
The polls were likely affected by the increased turnout which may have leaned more Trump than anticipated. The heavily Cuban vote in South Florida was even more of a factor this time and was not entirely offset by shifts toward Biden near Jacksonville and in northern Florida.
Using polls to call outcomes has limited use in any case. The more important use is to detect trends that can help politicians to tailor their messages and advertising to certain demographics. The polls the general public sees will never be detailed enough to make important personal decisions. For people who have big financial interests in the outcome, they have PACS and lobbyists.
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