[TheWildJacko]

NCAA Top 16 as of today

We are the #2 overall seed but get one of the toughest regions, with Baylor as our #2 and Louisville as our #3 (AZ would have been our #2 but was bumped into UCONN's region to avoid an intraleague 1-2 match up.)

On the other hand, it sort of seems like there are about 8-10 teams that could be #1 seeds this season, so every region is pretty tough.

---

Edit: TheFarm07, didn’t see your post on this in the other thread before I posted. Sorry for the duplicate!

[TheWildJacko]

NCAA Top 16 as of today

We are the #2 overall seed but get one of the toughest regions, with Baylor as our #2 and Louisville as our #3 (AZ would have been our #2 but was bumped into UCONN's region to avoid an intraleague 1-2 match up.)

On the other hand, it sort of seems like there are about 8-10 teams that could be #1 seeds this season, so every region is pretty tough.

---

Edit: TheFarm07, didn’t see your post on this in the other thread before I posted. Sorry for the duplicate!

[TheFarm07]

NCAA Top 16 as of today

We are the #2 overall seed but get one of the toughest regions, with Baylor as our #2 and Louisville as our #3 (AZ would have been our #2 but was bumped into UCONN's region to avoid an intraleague 1-2 match up.)

On the other hand, it sort of seems like there are about 8-10 teams that could be #1 seeds this season, so every region is pretty tough.

---

Edit: TheFarm07, didn’t see your post on this in the other thread before I posted. Sorry for the duplicate!

No worries, I didn't know where to put my post.

I agree that there is no dominant team this season and parity among the contenders. Every top team has their strengths -- and weaknesses. Even mighty UConn does not look unstoppable.

If we play well, we have good of a shot as any, but we'll have to cut down on the unforced errors. The depth may mean that we won't have to play a perfect game and have all the stars to align to beat a juggernaut, but earlier rounds are not as easy and more teams can take us down if we are not playing well.

I would say we can play the first couple rounds and win without having our A game, but starting in the Sweet 16, our margin of error would drop significantly

[TheFarm07]

NCAA Top 16 as of today

We are the #2 overall seed but get one of the toughest regions, with Baylor as our #2 and Louisville as our #3 (AZ would have been our #2 but was bumped into UCONN's region to avoid an intraleague 1-2 match up.)

On the other hand, it sort of seems like there are about 8-10 teams that could be #1 seeds this season, so every region is pretty tough.

---

Edit: TheFarm07, didn’t see your post on this in the other thread before I posted. Sorry for the duplicate!

No worries, I didn't know where to put my post.

I agree that there is no dominant team this season and parity among the contenders. Every top team has their strengths -- and weaknesses. Even mighty UConn does not look unstoppable.

If we play well, we have good of a shot as any, but we'll have to cut down on the unforced errors. The depth may mean that we won't have to play a perfect game and have all the stars to align to beat a juggernaut, but earlier rounds are not as easy and more teams can take us down if we are not playing well.

I would say we can play the first couple rounds and win without having our A game, but starting in the Sweet 16, our margin of error would drop significantly

[martyup]

Glad to see Maryland is no longer in our region.

[martyup]

Glad to see Maryland is no longer in our region.

[mbdude]

Glad to see Maryland is no longer in our region.

Yeah, they looked really good, very physical, very quick. Even better now because they have Angel Reese back

[mbdude]

Glad to see Maryland is no longer in our region.

Yeah, they looked really good, very physical, very quick. Even better now because they have Angel Reese back

[BostonCard]

You guys do realize that this is just a static look, and that the final standings and curve are almost certainly going to be different.  So, yeah, we may not be in Maryland's bracket right now, but that is borderline meaningless unless the conference championships go exactly as predicted, which they won't.

BC

[BostonCard]

You guys do realize that this is just a static look, and that the final standings and curve are almost certainly going to be different.  So, yeah, we may not be in Maryland's bracket right now, but that is borderline meaningless unless the conference championships go exactly as predicted, which they won't.

BC

[mbdude]

Get ready for one of the most unpredictable women's NCAA tournaments (espn.com)

After some of the upsets yesterday everything will change. Amending my statement - I hope Maryland is not in our bracket

[mbdude]

Get ready for one of the most unpredictable women's NCAA tournaments (espn.com)

After some of the upsets yesterday everything will change. Amending my statement - I hope Maryland is not in our bracket

[Softball Fan]

Today's (3/1/21) AP Poll

https://www.sandiegouniontribune.com/spo...tball-poll

Stanford at #4 with one first place vote. 

Oregon at #19.  IMO they shouldn't be that high.  They are still riding remnants of last year's reputation.  They have the lowest W/L percentage of any team in the top 25.

---

I'm guessing players and staff will be tested almost daily at the NCAA tournament.  Expect quite a few surprises due to Covid going into the tournament and during the tournament.  Cardinal have to stay extra vigilant from here on out.

[Softball Fan]

Today's (3/1/21) AP Poll

https://www.sandiegouniontribune.com/spo...tball-poll

Stanford at #4 with one first place vote. 

Oregon at #19.  IMO they shouldn't be that high.  They are still riding remnants of last year's reputation.  They have the lowest W/L percentage of any team in the top 25.

---

I'm guessing players and staff will be tested almost daily at the NCAA tournament.  Expect quite a few surprises due to Covid going into the tournament and during the tournament.  Cardinal have to stay extra vigilant from here on out.

[TheWildJacko]

Hey look, I could be an ESPN bracketologist!

Charlie Creme:

"With two weeks to go until Selection Monday, the debate about the No. 1 seeds still rages. And it's not just one team seemingly being shortchanged or a five-teams-for-four-spots scenario. Eight teams have a credible argument for a top seed. All eight -- UConn, Stanford, Texas A&M, South Carolina, NC State, Maryland, Baylor and Louisville, plus perhaps two or three more -- could reach the Final Four."

And me before reading the article:

On the other hand, it sort of seems like there are about 8-10 teams that could be #1 seeds this season, so every region is pretty tough.

[TheWildJacko]

Hey look, I could be an ESPN bracketologist!

Charlie Creme:

"With two weeks to go until Selection Monday, the debate about the No. 1 seeds still rages. And it's not just one team seemingly being shortchanged or a five-teams-for-four-spots scenario. Eight teams have a credible argument for a top seed. All eight -- UConn, Stanford, Texas A&M, South Carolina, NC State, Maryland, Baylor and Louisville, plus perhaps two or three more -- could reach the Final Four."

And me before reading the article:

On the other hand, it sort of seems like there are about 8-10 teams that could be #1 seeds this season, so every region is pretty tough.

[Jskass]

time will tell on all this. SEC teams being given benefit of the doubt/passing the "eye test" but PAC-12? Not. Accuracy will be borne out. Arkansas, TN and GA all better than OR? We shall see...

[Jskass]

time will tell on all this. SEC teams being given benefit of the doubt/passing the "eye test" but PAC-12? Not. Accuracy will be borne out. Arkansas, TN and GA all better than OR? We shall see...

[CompSci87]

time will tell on all this. SEC teams being given benefit of the doubt/passing the "eye test" but PAC-12? Not. Accuracy will be borne out. Arkansas, TN and GA all better than OR? We shall see...

Pac-12 teams beat up on each other and there are some upsets? Conclusions: Those are bad losses for the higher ranked teams. Pac-12 not as good as advertised.

Eastern teams beat up on each other and there are some upsets? Conclusion: Those are good wins for the lower ranked teams. Those teams are good. So the upsets are not bad losses for the higher ranked teams.

[CompSci87]

time will tell on all this. SEC teams being given benefit of the doubt/passing the "eye test" but PAC-12? Not. Accuracy will be borne out. Arkansas, TN and GA all better than OR? We shall see...

Pac-12 teams beat up on each other and there are some upsets? Conclusions: Those are bad losses for the higher ranked teams. Pac-12 not as good as advertised.

Eastern teams beat up on each other and there are some upsets? Conclusion: Those are good wins for the lower ranked teams. Those teams are good. So the upsets are not bad losses for the higher ranked teams.

[TheRicker]

Coaches Poll
https://www.usatoday.com/sports/ncaaw/po...ches-poll/

[TheRicker]

Coaches Poll
https://www.usatoday.com/sports/ncaaw/po...ches-poll/

[TheWildJacko]

time will tell on all this. SEC teams being given benefit of the doubt/passing the "eye test" but PAC-12? Not. Accuracy will be borne out. Arkansas, TN and GA all better than OR? We shall see...

Arkansas did beat both Baylor and UCONN. They lost to every other ranked team they played, but most of those losses were fairly close (within single digits). They're certainly capable of pulling off some shockers in the tournament. OR has only one top-25 win, vs. OSU.

[TheWildJacko]

time will tell on all this. SEC teams being given benefit of the doubt/passing the "eye test" but PAC-12? Not. Accuracy will be borne out. Arkansas, TN and GA all better than OR? We shall see...

Arkansas did beat both Baylor and UCONN. They lost to every other ranked team they played, but most of those losses were fairly close (within single digits). They're certainly capable of pulling off some shockers in the tournament. OR has only one top-25 win, vs. OSU.

[BosCard]

time will tell on all this. SEC teams being given benefit of the doubt/passing the "eye test" but PAC-12? Not. Accuracy will be borne out. Arkansas, TN and GA all better than OR? We shall see...

Arkansas did beat both Baylor and UCONN. They lost to every other ranked team they played, but most of those losses were fairly close (within single digits). They're certainly capable of pulling off some shockers in the tournament. OR has only one top-25 win, vs. OSU.

I would like to win the PAC-12 tournament and remain the 2 or 3 overall seed.  Dropping to the 4th overall seed means a harder regional final game against a better 2 seed.  And I'd rather play Texas A&M or NC State in the national semifinal than UConn.  All of this is assuming we get that far.  But I would like the best possible road because this tournament is wide wide wide open and we have as good a chance to win as any other top team.

[BosCard]

time will tell on all this. SEC teams being given benefit of the doubt/passing the "eye test" but PAC-12? Not. Accuracy will be borne out. Arkansas, TN and GA all better than OR? We shall see...

Arkansas did beat both Baylor and UCONN. They lost to every other ranked team they played, but most of those losses were fairly close (within single digits). They're certainly capable of pulling off some shockers in the tournament. OR has only one top-25 win, vs. OSU.

I would like to win the PAC-12 tournament and remain the 2 or 3 overall seed.  Dropping to the 4th overall seed means a harder regional final game against a better 2 seed.  And I'd rather play Texas A&M or NC State in the national semifinal than UConn.  All of this is assuming we get that far.  But I would like the best possible road because this tournament is wide wide wide open and we have as good a chance to win as any other top team.

[M T]

 
But I would like the best possible road because this tournament is wide wide wide open and we have as good a chance to win as any other top team.

Considering the lack of benefit to the higher ranked teams by having regionals in their home courts with home crowds, there is a higher probability of Cinderella teams going further this year.   Add to that the 50-50 chance that if one team is impacted by COVID, it will be the higher ranked team. (Let's all hope that doesn't happen to any team!)

Stanford of course has plenty of experience playing on neutral courts.

In the AP top-25, Arkansas has played 26 games (19-7). Stanford (22-2) and Gonzaga (21-3) have played 24.  All the rest have played 23 or fewer.  The fewest games is 15 by Rutgers (12-3).

At least for Stanford, I think the extra games have helped sharpen the team and the individuals, and given the team the confidence that they can do what is needed.  Look at the press, for instance.  If anything, with so many good players, Stanford needed more playing time so all could develop.

The cancelled games have played havoc with SOS this year (where SOS is defined as opponents' win percentage).  So much of the schedule for everyone is against a closed set of conference schools that beat up on one another, dragging the SOS toward 0.5.  And when out-of-conference games did happen, they were geographically limited this year, at least on the West Coast. 

According to RealTimeRPI, Stanford is 62nd in SOS, and UCLA is 96.   (Interesting to see that Bucknell (8-0 !!) is 3rd in RPI.)
RPI rankings:  9. Stanford.  25. Arizona  34. UCLA  39. Oregon   74. Oregon State
Net rankings:  1. Stanford  7. UCLA   10. Oregon   14. Arizona   29. Oregon State  43. Washington State  50. Colorado  79. USC   91. ASU

Comparing current full season vs previous conference season bests:  Points scored per game (78.0) isn't within a point of being 10th on the all time list.  Opponents' scoring (53.0) is 2nd but a long way from #1 at 51.9.  Point differential (25.0) is 2nd behind 1989-1990 26.6.   The ratio of Stanford scoring/Opponent scoring is apparently 2nd best by a smidgen (Conference:  1559/1116 = 1.397 vs 1.402 for 1989-1990.)

If Stanford were to win the rest of their potential games (winning PAC-12 (3 games) and NCAA tourney (6 games)), their record would be 31-2, with a winning percentage of 0.940 for 5th best all time.

It was interesting to see that the top 8 scoring average seasons were all in the 1989-1998 while the top 10 defensive scoring seasons are all 2003 and later with the emphasis on later.  Very clearly, scores of Stanford and their opponents have decreased over the last 3 decades.

[M T]

 
But I would like the best possible road because this tournament is wide wide wide open and we have as good a chance to win as any other top team.

Considering the lack of benefit to the higher ranked teams by having regionals in their home courts with home crowds, there is a higher probability of Cinderella teams going further this year.   Add to that the 50-50 chance that if one team is impacted by COVID, it will be the higher ranked team. (Let's all hope that doesn't happen to any team!)

Stanford of course has plenty of experience playing on neutral courts.

In the AP top-25, Arkansas has played 26 games (19-7). Stanford (22-2) and Gonzaga (21-3) have played 24.  All the rest have played 23 or fewer.  The fewest games is 15 by Rutgers (12-3).

At least for Stanford, I think the extra games have helped sharpen the team and the individuals, and given the team the confidence that they can do what is needed.  Look at the press, for instance.  If anything, with so many good players, Stanford needed more playing time so all could develop.

The cancelled games have played havoc with SOS this year (where SOS is defined as opponents' win percentage).  So much of the schedule for everyone is against a closed set of conference schools that beat up on one another, dragging the SOS toward 0.5.  And when out-of-conference games did happen, they were geographically limited this year, at least on the West Coast. 

According to RealTimeRPI, Stanford is 62nd in SOS, and UCLA is 96.   (Interesting to see that Bucknell (8-0 !!) is 3rd in RPI.)
RPI rankings:  9. Stanford.  25. Arizona  34. UCLA  39. Oregon   74. Oregon State
Net rankings:  1. Stanford  7. UCLA   10. Oregon   14. Arizona   29. Oregon State  43. Washington State  50. Colorado  79. USC   91. ASU

Comparing current full season vs previous conference season bests:  Points scored per game (78.0) isn't within a point of being 10th on the all time list.  Opponents' scoring (53.0) is 2nd but a long way from #1 at 51.9.  Point differential (25.0) is 2nd behind 1989-1990 26.6.   The ratio of Stanford scoring/Opponent scoring is apparently 2nd best by a smidgen (Conference:  1559/1116 = 1.397 vs 1.402 for 1989-1990.)

If Stanford were to win the rest of their potential games (winning PAC-12 (3 games) and NCAA tourney (6 games)), their record would be 31-2, with a winning percentage of 0.940 for 5th best all time.

It was interesting to see that the top 8 scoring average seasons were all in the 1989-1998 while the top 10 defensive scoring seasons are all 2003 and later with the emphasis on later.  Very clearly, scores of Stanford and their opponents have decreased over the last 3 decades.

[BobK]

The Governor of Texas just declared Masks no longer necessary. That’s not good for the NCAAs

[BobK]

The Governor of Texas just declared Masks no longer necessary. That’s not good for the NCAAs

[oldalum]

The Governor of Texas just declared Masks no longer necessary.    That’s not good for the NCAAs

I'm guessing our players won't take them off outside of their rooms and the practice court.

[oldalum]

The Governor of Texas just declared Masks no longer necessary.    That’s not good for the NCAAs

I'm guessing our players won't take them off outside of their rooms and the practice court.

[WBB fan]

The Governor of Texas just declared Masks no longer necessary.    That’s not good for the NCAAs

Not good at all.  And when we watched the Texas A & M / South Carolina game, we took note of how many fans were in the stands, not much spacing, and most were unmasked. Texas is not a safe place to be during a pandemic.  It will difficult for the Card -- and all other teams -- to deal with.

[WBB fan]

The Governor of Texas just declared Masks no longer necessary.    That’s not good for the NCAAs

Not good at all.  And when we watched the Texas A & M / South Carolina game, we took note of how many fans were in the stands, not much spacing, and most were unmasked. Texas is not a safe place to be during a pandemic.  It will difficult for the Card -- and all other teams -- to deal with.

[M T]

If you care to track things leading up to the WBB tourneys,

Clark County (containing Las Vegas) has basically the same population as Santa Clara County.
The COVID tracker for the Southern Nevada Health District indicates Clark County currently has 10.7% positivity rate with an average of something between 188  and 295 daily new cases for the last week.  (The Capacity tab shows 295 as of 2/26 while the Cases tab show 210 for that date and 188 for the next day.)
Clark County has had 227K cases.

Bexar County (containing San Antonio) has basically the same population as Santa Clara County.
The COVID tracker  indicates they have 5.6% positivity with an average of 373 daily new cases for the past week.
Bexar County has had 197K cases.

For comparison, Santa Clara County currently has a 2.1% positivity rate with an average of 238 daily new cases for the past week.
Santa Clara County has had 111K cases.

If this crazy COVID disease took off in San Antonio from this point as it did from mid November when it was this level, a month later the cases were at the 1300 cases per day level.

The NCAA WBB tourney will be played in surrounding counties.  Travis County (Austin, 70mi north, about 2/3s the size of SCC) has 6.9% positivity and 213 daily new cases.


Let's hope the numbers keep dropping as they have recently.

[M T]

If you care to track things leading up to the WBB tourneys,

Clark County (containing Las Vegas) has basically the same population as Santa Clara County.
The COVID tracker for the Southern Nevada Health District indicates Clark County currently has 10.7% positivity rate with an average of something between 188  and 295 daily new cases for the last week.  (The Capacity tab shows 295 as of 2/26 while the Cases tab show 210 for that date and 188 for the next day.)
Clark County has had 227K cases.

Bexar County (containing San Antonio) has basically the same population as Santa Clara County.
The COVID tracker  indicates they have 5.6% positivity with an average of 373 daily new cases for the past week.
Bexar County has had 197K cases.

For comparison, Santa Clara County currently has a 2.1% positivity rate with an average of 238 daily new cases for the past week.
Santa Clara County has had 111K cases.

If this crazy COVID disease took off in San Antonio from this point as it did from mid November when it was this level, a month later the cases were at the 1300 cases per day level.

The NCAA WBB tourney will be played in surrounding counties.  Travis County (Austin, 70mi north, about 2/3s the size of SCC) has 6.9% positivity and 213 daily new cases.


Let's hope the numbers keep dropping as they have recently.

[OutsiderFan]

Will the NCAA or its member schools participating in the Women's Tournament, put heat on Texas for dropping all of its Covid NPIs? It's simply reckless to be so cavalier about a virus that is just waiting to re-surge. The NCAA can say it will require tournament participants to follow safety standards, but what about everyone staying in hotels with the teams who have no restrictions? What about going through the airport with no restrictions? 

I'd start looking at other sites were I the NCAA.  I'd go to Orlando where the NBA had its bubble.

[OutsiderFan]

Will the NCAA or its member schools participating in the Women's Tournament, put heat on Texas for dropping all of its Covid NPIs? It's simply reckless to be so cavalier about a virus that is just waiting to re-surge. The NCAA can say it will require tournament participants to follow safety standards, but what about everyone staying in hotels with the teams who have no restrictions? What about going through the airport with no restrictions? 

I'd start looking at other sites were I the NCAA.  I'd go to Orlando where the NBA had its bubble.

[BobK]

The nba is usually Orlando as their home for the D league I believe. Also Florida will be the next state no masks.

[BobK]

The nba is usually Orlando as their home for the D league I believe. Also Florida will be the next state no masks.