(05-30-2022, 07:19 PM)SamuelMcF Wrote: (05-30-2022, 05:28 AM)OutsiderFan Wrote: Has Ingram been given an NIL deal to make staying at Stanford a little easier? I mean if Kentucky's POY can forego the NBA draft for NIL money, surely Stanford's best player can.
Said POY was projected to be a late second rounder.
It's the darnedest thing year after year seeing fans misunderstand what the NBA looks for and that it's not about being the most player in college. If anything, being a dominant college player typically requires developing over several years which means that being the best in college may actually be an indication a player is unlikely to be great in the NBA. Otherwise the player would have bolted for the NBA at an earlier opportunity.
In all of history, only three freshmen have ever won player of the year: Kevin Durant, Anthony Davis, Zion Williamson. Being that good that early is a sign of greatness. For mere mortals, winning player of the year typically means you're great at basketball but not with a skill set likely to be great in the NBA. Among the last 30 non-freshmen national players of the year, here is the grand total of All-NBA selections:
Larry Johnson (second team once)
Tim Duncan (first team ten times, second team three times, third team twice)
Elton Brand (second team once)
Andrew Bogut (third team once)
Blake Griffin (second team three times, third team twice)
Extreme long shot to be a legend or even truly great, and fewer than a fifth of them become NBA superstars. Compare that to the All-NBA selections the NBA projected to be truly great by virtue of being the #1 overall pick during that span:
Larry Johnson (second team once)
Shaquille O'Neal (first team eight times, second team twice, third team four times)
Chris Webber (first team once, second team three times, third team once)
Allen Iverson (first team three times, second team three times, third team once)
Tim Duncan (first team ten times, second team three times, third team twice)
Elton Brand (second team once)
Yao Ming (second team twice, third team three times)
LeBron James (first team 13 times, second team three times, third team twice)
Dwight Howard (first team five times, second team once, third team)
Andrew Bogut (third team once)
Derrick Rose (first team once)
Blake Griffin (second team three times, third team twice)
John Wall (third team once)
Kyrie Irving (second team once, third team twice)
Anthony Davis (first team four times)
Karl-Anthony Towns (third team twice)
Ben Simmons (third team once)
The odds for a national player of the year to become a one-time third team All-NBA player or better (a bit less than 20 percent) are about the same as the odds for a #1 pick to become a legend. The odds are about 50/50 a #1 overall pick will reach that superstar All-NBA level.
At the most elite level, the NBA knows what it's looking for and it rarely comes in a package that sticks in college long enough to get national player of the year. The most recent national player of the year made third team......in the G League.
Every single one of the national players of the year in the last 30+ years who turned out to be an NBA superstar went #1 overall, suggesting that the real secret sauce was in the potential the NBA saw quite clearly. Bringing this back to Tshiebwe, three of the national players of the year made good (Brand, Bogut, and Griffin) only played two years in college so they support the idea that juniors/seniors good enough to win national player of the year aren't good enough to be superstars in the NBA. Those three were great early. The other two were outliers, Johnson because he was a junior college guy finding his way and Duncan because, well, even then they didn't make them like Tim Duncan. He could have been a millionaire much earlier but is the mythical creature all of us who romanticize college sports wish there were more of but, in reality, are as tough to find as a needle in a haystack.