09-08-2022, 01:02 PM
Yeah, I think that’s what they are trying to do. I think that the roads to Izium are now susceptible to Ukrainian artillery.
BC
BC
(09-08-2022, 12:20 PM)BostonCard Wrote: And if the Ukrainians are dumb enough to invade into Russia, sure. But we are talking less than 50 km here.I think you are correct if they stop now but it is unlikely that is their intent. They can get in lots of trouble well short of the Russian border if they aren't careful :-) I think that they will be careful, but you never know.
BC
(09-08-2022, 01:00 PM)Treefence Wrote: Not sure if this is obvious or not, but based on everything developing in the Kharkiv offensive, I get the feeling the objective is to fully cut off all logistical routes to Izium. That's always been a major hub for Russian forces in the east. A long way to go to achieve this, but if Ukraine could surround, and eventually take Izium, it would be a of immense proportions blow for Russians, especially if they end up having POW's in the four to five figure range. in the overall offensive.Exactly so. To do that though they are going to have to go north quite a bit as near as I can tell. Doing that may be possible, because when you get in the enemies rear areas there aren't many formations that can fight you. There are other possible objectives as well. In situations like this if you are meeting resistance in some directions and not others, it is real tempting to go in the path of least resistance. That's fine if it helps you reach your objective. If not, it may be better to maintain a concentration of forces.
(09-08-2022, 01:02 PM)Treefence Wrote: I wonder if a major turning point of this war was Ukrainians not having to surrender in mass during their withdrawals during the Russian Luhansk offensive. There were many times it seemed pockets were closing on many Ukrainian troops, but it never seemed to come to fruition for Russia.Ukraine did a masterful job in resisting as long as possible while not getting trapped. They fought much better than the continental army did. They had no battle of Ft. Washington or similar. I don't think retreating successfully was a "turning point" in either war, but the opposite outcomes certainly would have been.
It reminds me a bit of George Washington and the continental army somehow mostly escaping from New York in the revolutionary war, that could've and likely should've been a devastating blow, and likely the end for them.
(09-08-2022, 12:20 PM)BostonCard Wrote: And if the Ukrainians are dumb enough to invade into Russia, sure. But we are talking less than 50 km here.I think you are correct if they stop now but it is unlikely that is their intent. They can get in lots of trouble well short of the Russian border if they aren't careful :-) I think that they will be careful, but you never know.
BC
(09-08-2022, 01:00 PM)Treefence Wrote: Not sure if this is obvious or not, but based on everything developing in the Kharkiv offensive, I get the feeling the objective is to fully cut off all logistical routes to Izium. That's always been a major hub for Russian forces in the east. A long way to go to achieve this, but if Ukraine could surround, and eventually take Izium, it would be a of immense proportions blow for Russians, especially if they end up having POW's in the four to five figure range. in the overall offensive.Exactly so. To do that though they are going to have to go north quite a bit as near as I can tell. Doing that may be possible, because when you get in the enemies rear areas there aren't many formations that can fight you. There are other possible objectives as well. In situations like this if you are meeting resistance in some directions and not others, it is real tempting to go in the path of least resistance. That's fine if it helps you reach your objective. If not, it may be better to maintain a concentration of forces.
(09-08-2022, 01:02 PM)Treefence Wrote: I wonder if a major turning point of this war was Ukrainians not having to surrender in mass during their withdrawals during the Russian Luhansk offensive. There were many times it seemed pockets were closing on many Ukrainian troops, but it never seemed to come to fruition for Russia.Ukraine did a masterful job in resisting as long as possible while not getting trapped. They fought much better than the continental army did. They had no battle of Ft. Washington or similar. I don't think retreating successfully was a "turning point" in either war, but the opposite outcomes certainly would have been.
It reminds me a bit of George Washington and the continental army somehow mostly escaping from New York in the revolutionary war, that could've and likely should've been a devastating blow, and likely the end for them.
(09-08-2022, 04:40 PM)cardcrimson Wrote: Man, that last video was great to see.
(09-08-2022, 04:40 PM)cardcrimson Wrote: Man, that last video was great to see.
(09-08-2022, 04:09 PM)dabigv13 Wrote: The Russians are having difficulties retreating across even small rivers. In both the Kherson offensive and the Kharkiv offensive, if Ukrainian advances continue, large groups of Russian forces and equipment will be trapped by large rivers, the Dnieper in Kherson and the Oskil in Kharkiv.
https://twitter.com/UAWeapons/status/156...sHjLRVtVtw
Ukraine has already knocked out all the bridges over the Dineper. I don't know as much about the bridge situation on the Oskil though on a map it looks like there are only really two south of Kupyansk. They should be within range of GMLRS and Ukraine has launchers in the area.
https://twitter.com/UAWeapons/status/156...sHjLRVtVtw
https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/15679...sHjLRVtVtw
And with Russians likely needing to retreat across two different rivers across the country at the same time, their already shot up engineering and bridging units will be even more stretched. Could be many prisoners, and lots more donated gear.
Not just farmland is being freed either. Over twenty villages and towns I believe in past couple days.
(09-08-2022, 05:15 PM)dabigv13 Wrote: Talk about morale advantage. Imagine you're a Ukrainian soldier on a BTR rolling through a liberated village like this on your way to go kill more Russians.As BC said, not to be a downer but what I would hope to see is a Ukrainian E5 screaming at them to "Get back in your F****** vehicle and act like soldiers". The habit of riding on the outside of their APCs is well entrenched in the Russian military and most armies using Soviet designed equipment. It is very uncomfortable to ride in. It is difficult to fight from inside of it when necessary. It is also hard to get out of. However, if you are fighting an enemy that has lots of 155/152 mm artillery, you can be hit by H&I fire quite a distance from the front line. No warning, it just happens. Worse still, in an area your enemy just vacated, there may be stay-behinds that can actually target you. It always makes sense to remain inside the vehicle as long as possible. A direct hit kills you either way, but if you are riding on top close is absolutely devastating. You might as well be in an open truck.
(09-08-2022, 04:09 PM)dabigv13 Wrote: The Russians are having difficulties retreating across even small rivers. In both the Kherson offensive and the Kharkiv offensive, if Ukrainian advances continue, large groups of Russian forces and equipment will be trapped by large rivers, the Dnieper in Kherson and the Oskil in Kharkiv.
https://twitter.com/UAWeapons/status/156...sHjLRVtVtw
Ukraine has already knocked out all the bridges over the Dineper. I don't know as much about the bridge situation on the Oskil though on a map it looks like there are only really two south of Kupyansk. They should be within range of GMLRS and Ukraine has launchers in the area.
https://twitter.com/UAWeapons/status/156...sHjLRVtVtw
https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/15679...sHjLRVtVtw
And with Russians likely needing to retreat across two different rivers across the country at the same time, their already shot up engineering and bridging units will be even more stretched. Could be many prisoners, and lots more donated gear.
Not just farmland is being freed either. Over twenty villages and towns I believe in past couple days.
(09-08-2022, 05:15 PM)dabigv13 Wrote: Talk about morale advantage. Imagine you're a Ukrainian soldier on a BTR rolling through a liberated village like this on your way to go kill more Russians.As BC said, not to be a downer but what I would hope to see is a Ukrainian E5 screaming at them to "Get back in your F****** vehicle and act like soldiers". The habit of riding on the outside of their APCs is well entrenched in the Russian military and most armies using Soviet designed equipment. It is very uncomfortable to ride in. It is difficult to fight from inside of it when necessary. It is also hard to get out of. However, if you are fighting an enemy that has lots of 155/152 mm artillery, you can be hit by H&I fire quite a distance from the front line. No warning, it just happens. Worse still, in an area your enemy just vacated, there may be stay-behinds that can actually target you. It always makes sense to remain inside the vehicle as long as possible. A direct hit kills you either way, but if you are riding on top close is absolutely devastating. You might as well be in an open truck.
(09-08-2022, 05:07 PM)BostonCard Wrote: Without trying to be a downer, I will note that the liberated land constitutes just under 0.2% of the land area of Ukraine and just over 2% of the area that Russia is occupying. Hopefully it is just the start of continued pushback.
BC
(09-08-2022, 05:07 PM)BostonCard Wrote: Without trying to be a downer, I will note that the liberated land constitutes just under 0.2% of the land area of Ukraine and just over 2% of the area that Russia is occupying. Hopefully it is just the start of continued pushback.
BC
(09-08-2022, 05:07 PM)BostonCard Wrote: Without trying to be a downer, I will note that the liberated land constitutes just under 0.2% of the land area of Ukraine and just over 2% of the area that Russia is occupying. Hopefully it is just the start of continued pushback.True, but if it is the right 0.2% it can matter a lot. How big was the area in Virginia around Yorktown?
BC
(09-08-2022, 05:07 PM)BostonCard Wrote: Without trying to be a downer, I will note that the liberated land constitutes just under 0.2% of the land area of Ukraine and just over 2% of the area that Russia is occupying. Hopefully it is just the start of continued pushback.True, but if it is the right 0.2% it can matter a lot. How big was the area in Virginia around Yorktown?
BC
Quote:Ukrainian forces in the Kharkiv Oblast counteroffensives advanced to within 20 kilometers of Russia’s key logistical node in Kupyansk on September 8.
Ukrainian forces will likely capture Kupyansk in the next 72 hours, severely degrading but not completely severing Russian ground lines of communication (GLOCs) to Izyum.
Quote:Ukrainian forces in the Kharkiv Oblast counteroffensives advanced to within 20 kilometers of Russia’s key logistical node in Kupyansk on September 8.
Ukrainian forces will likely capture Kupyansk in the next 72 hours, severely degrading but not completely severing Russian ground lines of communication (GLOCs) to Izyum.
(09-08-2022, 07:01 PM)Treefence Wrote: Unconfirmed at this point, but if this is true, this would be pretty incredible. I'd imagine Ukraine would like to use him and other recent POW's as a way to get a lot (or hopefully the rest) of the Mariupol defenders, especially the high level officers.
[Tweet][url=https://twitter.com/LvivJournal/status/1567974442856513536?s=20&t=HoNg-F-KomVUc9CCVZte0w]https://twitter.com/LvivJournal/status/1567974442856513536?s=20&t=HoNg-F-KomVUc9CCVZte0w[/tweet]
(09-08-2022, 07:01 PM)Treefence Wrote: Unconfirmed at this point, but if this is true, this would be pretty incredible. I'd imagine Ukraine would like to use him and other recent POW's as a way to get a lot (or hopefully the rest) of the Mariupol defenders, especially the high level officers.
[Tweet][url=https://twitter.com/LvivJournal/status/1567974442856513536?s=20&t=HoNg-F-KomVUc9CCVZte0w]https://twitter.com/LvivJournal/status/1567974442856513536?s=20&t=HoNg-F-KomVUc9CCVZte0w[/tweet]