(11-30-2022, 11:40 AM)msqueri Wrote: This is misleading because Dykes got fired while still building. There's no way of knowing what he would have done in his fifth year. Cal got impatient and didn't find out. What he's done everywhere else shows what kind of coach he is. Cal is like UNLV: blaming the coach for the program itself sucking. Marcus Arroyo just got fired and a 7-23 record seems AWFUL. But just looking at it in that lens leads to dubious conclusions. You also have to consider program strength/fundamentals and trajectory. Arroyo got fired after major improvement each year. Dykes got fired after two years that were better than the two prior to those. I'm not saying Cal's regression from Dykes penultimate to ultimate year was good or that it was indefensible for Cal to fire him, but everything subsequently in the Cal program has showed Dykes wasn't the problem and everything subsequently in Dykes' career suggests he's a very good coach.
I can't believe we're actually arguing this. Sonny Dykes has TCU 12-0. 12-0! They hadn't won more than seven games in any of the previous four years. He's going to win national coach of the year. But he's the problem. People, Cal sucks.
Under that assumption, Harbaugh left "while he was still building". Sure, maybe if he'd stuck around he would have gotten the team even higher than it got, but "building" means you take a team that was 1-11 the year before you got there and improve the team's record every year you are there. Four years as head coach, with 80+% of the players were his recruits, and he can't get the defense to be better than the bottom quartile in FBS?
Here are the defensive FEI's from Wilcox: 56th, 11th, 43rd, 31st, 41st, 62nd
In four years, Dykes was never above the median defense; in six years, Wilcox was never below it. I'm not a Wilcox stan (and the last couple years have borne me out), but he has a better record at Cal than Dykes, and, so far as I know, Cal has not changed institutionally. Dykes had one winning/bowl season in four and never finished higher than fourth in the Pac-12N. Wilcox has been to two bowl games in five non-COVID seasons, and finished second in 2019.
And why do you excuse Dykes' fourth year as "still building" but give him all the credit for his job at TCU, which was done almost completely with players recruited by his predecessor?
Institutional issues at Cal definitely put a ceiling on how well the school will be able to do. However, that ceiling is not a sub-.400 winning percentage (sub-.300 in conference).
BC