(12-07-2022, 06:21 PM)Mick Wrote: (12-07-2022, 01:44 PM)BostonCard Wrote: Not sure about that strategy. The vast majority of players, especially those drafted in the lower rounds, never see that second contract.
I haven’t games it out, but if you adjust for that fact, there is probably a strong impetus in improving your draft position upon exit from college.
BC
It's 70%. Big number. Here's the numbers by team from draft picks from 2008 to 2017. San Francisco has the highest percentage
https://www.the33rdteam.com/wp-content/u...amed-3.png
ESPN.com: NFL - Drafted players don't stick around
As I read the article, it says 70% of the players do not get a second contract from the team that drafted them, not that 70% of the players don't get a second contract. That is partly the goal, as the article says. Hit free agency after three years and get the "big bucks". That said, I think it is true that the majority of drafted players, particularly in the later rounds, do not "stick" in the NFL. There are lots of reasons why, and circumstances play a role, but usually it is because they just aren't good enough. However, that doesn't affect the strategy the player should use. If you are going to "make it", you should do so ASAP. If you aren't, waiting a year to try won't change the outcome in most cases, unless you get hurt and can't go to the NFL at all.
If there was a study that compared the financial benefits of players who declared for the draft when they were first eligible vs. those that stayed in college, it would be interesting. I haven't seen one. However, such a study would suffer from selection bias anyway. Many guys who leave early are "can't miss" prospects that have a very good shot at a long career. It wouldn't reflect the outcomes for the other players, who are more the ones we are talking about here.