[cardcrimson]

According to the Weather Channel, rain forecasted every day for the next two weeks, at least. Wow.

[cardcrimson]

According to the Weather Channel, rain forecasted every day for the next two weeks, at least. Wow.

[M T]

According to the Weather Channel, rain forecasted every day for the next two weeks, at least. Wow.

I have a relative outside Sonora. The predicted rain Thursday to Wednesday is 11”

[M T]

According to the Weather Channel, rain forecasted every day for the next two weeks, at least. Wow.

I have a relative outside Sonora. The predicted rain Thursday to Wednesday is 11”

[81alum]

According to the Weather Channel, rain forecasted every day for the next two weeks, at least. Wow.

I have a relative outside Sonora. The predicted rain Thursday to Wednesday is 11”

What really could trigger large scale flooding is not only the volume of rain, but the elevation level for snow.  If it rains that much on top of deep snow, then the results would be cataclysmic.  That was the situation in the 1996-97 New Year's floods:
https://www.kcra.com/article/timeline-lo...7/38614010

[81alum]

According to the Weather Channel, rain forecasted every day for the next two weeks, at least. Wow.

I have a relative outside Sonora. The predicted rain Thursday to Wednesday is 11”

What really could trigger large scale flooding is not only the volume of rain, but the elevation level for snow.  If it rains that much on top of deep snow, then the results would be cataclysmic.  That was the situation in the 1996-97 New Year's floods:
https://www.kcra.com/article/timeline-lo...7/38614010

[threepointer]

Prepare for flooding.

I updated my spreadsheet that I have used for the past several years to monitor California reservoir storage levels.  In the past 24 hours, the 48 reservoirs on the CA Department of Water Resources added 514, 688 acre feet of water.  That's enough water for 1.3 million average CA households for one year.  Those 48 reservoirs added 1.8% of capacity in 1 day.

The reason flooding is and will happen is that some of the smaller reservoirs are overwhelmed.  These smaller reservoirs are something like surge capacity for the river systems and larger capacity reservoirs at higher elevations.

Here are a couple of examples

Reservoir	Capacity	Yesterday	Today	% of Capacity	% of Capacity
Kaweah	185,600	64,138	114,272	35%	62%
Success	82,300	31,517	75,314	38%	92%

Kaweah added 50,134 acre feet. Success added 43,947 acre feet. McClure, Pine Flatt, and Millerton each added over 60,000 acre feet in the past day.  Isabella added 57,000 acre feet. McClure is only the 8th largest reservoir in California. Shasta and Oroville are almost 4 X larger than McClure.

The 48 reservoirs are not the entire system.  These are the ones summarized on the CDEC site.  There are many more, mostly small, and without the ability to drain quickly enough to accommodate the inflow.

Wait until the snow starts to melt.

[threepointer]

Prepare for flooding.

I updated my spreadsheet that I have used for the past several years to monitor California reservoir storage levels.  In the past 24 hours, the 48 reservoirs on the CA Department of Water Resources added 514, 688 acre feet of water.  That's enough water for 1.3 million average CA households for one year.  Those 48 reservoirs added 1.8% of capacity in 1 day.

The reason flooding is and will happen is that some of the smaller reservoirs are overwhelmed.  These smaller reservoirs are something like surge capacity for the river systems and larger capacity reservoirs at higher elevations.

Here are a couple of examples

Reservoir	Capacity	Yesterday	Today	% of Capacity	% of Capacity
Kaweah	185,600	64,138	114,272	35%	62%
Success	82,300	31,517	75,314	38%	92%

Kaweah added 50,134 acre feet. Success added 43,947 acre feet. McClure, Pine Flatt, and Millerton each added over 60,000 acre feet in the past day.  Isabella added 57,000 acre feet. McClure is only the 8th largest reservoir in California. Shasta and Oroville are almost 4 X larger than McClure.

The 48 reservoirs are not the entire system.  These are the ones summarized on the CDEC site.  There are many more, mostly small, and without the ability to drain quickly enough to accommodate the inflow.

Wait until the snow starts to melt.

[CompSci87]

Prepare for flooding.

I updated my spreadsheet that I have used for the past several years to monitor California reservoir storage levels.  In the past 24 hours, the 48 reservoirs on the CA Department of Water Resources added 514, 688 acre feet of water.  That's enough water for 1.3 million average CA households for one year.  Those 48 reservoirs added 1.8% of capacity in 1 day.

The reason flooding is and will happen is that some of the smaller reservoirs are overwhelmed.  These smaller reservoirs are something like surge capacity for the river systems and larger capacity reservoirs at higher elevations.

Here are a couple of examples

Reservoir	Capacity	Yesterday	Today	% of Capacity	% of Capacity
Kaweah	185,600	64,138	114,272	35%	62%
Success	82,300	75,314	31,517	38%	92%

Kaweah added 50,134 acre feet.  Success added 43,947 acre feet.  McClure, Pine Flatt, and Millerton each added over 60,000 acre feet in the past day.  Isabella added 57,000 acre feet.  McClure is only the 8th largest reservoir in California.  Shasta and Oroville are almost 4 X larger than McClure.

The 48 reservoirs are not the entire system.  These are the ones summarized on the CDEC site.  There are many more, mostly small, and without the ability to drain quickly enough to accommodate the inflow.

Wait until the snow starts to melt.

Did you swap the yesterday and today numbers for Success?

[CompSci87]

Prepare for flooding.

I updated my spreadsheet that I have used for the past several years to monitor California reservoir storage levels.  In the past 24 hours, the 48 reservoirs on the CA Department of Water Resources added 514, 688 acre feet of water.  That's enough water for 1.3 million average CA households for one year.  Those 48 reservoirs added 1.8% of capacity in 1 day.

The reason flooding is and will happen is that some of the smaller reservoirs are overwhelmed.  These smaller reservoirs are something like surge capacity for the river systems and larger capacity reservoirs at higher elevations.

Here are a couple of examples

Reservoir	Capacity	Yesterday	Today	% of Capacity	% of Capacity
Kaweah	185,600	64,138	114,272	35%	62%
Success	82,300	75,314	31,517	38%	92%

Kaweah added 50,134 acre feet.  Success added 43,947 acre feet.  McClure, Pine Flatt, and Millerton each added over 60,000 acre feet in the past day.  Isabella added 57,000 acre feet.  McClure is only the 8th largest reservoir in California.  Shasta and Oroville are almost 4 X larger than McClure.

The 48 reservoirs are not the entire system.  These are the ones summarized on the CDEC site.  There are many more, mostly small, and without the ability to drain quickly enough to accommodate the inflow.

Wait until the snow starts to melt.

Did you swap the yesterday and today numbers for Success?

[threepointer]

Did you swap the yesterday and today numbers for Success?

I was an econ major at Stanford.  Didn't require the same exactitude as Comp Sci.  Thanks for the catch. Corrected the swap.

[threepointer]

Did you swap the yesterday and today numbers for Success?

I was an econ major at Stanford.  Didn't require the same exactitude as Comp Sci.  Thanks for the catch. Corrected the swap.

[CompSci87]

Did you swap the yesterday and today numbers for Success?

I was an econ major at Stanford.  Didn't require the same exactitude as Comp Sci.  Thanks for the catch.  Corrected the swap.

Haha, yeah, computers are completely literal minded. So are programmers after they get experienced.

[CompSci87]

Did you swap the yesterday and today numbers for Success?

I was an econ major at Stanford.  Didn't require the same exactitude as Comp Sci.  Thanks for the catch.  Corrected the swap.

Haha, yeah, computers are completely literal minded. So are programmers after they get experienced.

[cardcrimson]

According to the Weather Channel, rain forecasted every day for the next two weeks, at least. Wow.

I have a relative outside Sonora. The predicted rain Thursday to Wednesday is 11”

Wish them the best!

[cardcrimson]

According to the Weather Channel, rain forecasted every day for the next two weeks, at least. Wow.

I have a relative outside Sonora. The predicted rain Thursday to Wednesday is 11”

Wish them the best!

[BostonCard]

[tweet]https://twitter.com/cal_oes/status/1634620402466177028?s=46&t=tTMJoVUyV69NbVTC5DVNgw[/tweet]

One more atmospheric river on its way.  Highway 1 is already a disaster.

[tweet]https://twitter.com/caltransd5/status/1634591306537394176?s=46&t=tTMJoVUyV69NbVTC5DVNgw[/tweet]

BC

[BostonCard]

[tweet]https://twitter.com/cal_oes/status/1634620402466177028?s=46&t=tTMJoVUyV69NbVTC5DVNgw[/tweet]

One more atmospheric river on its way.  Highway 1 is already a disaster.

[tweet]https://twitter.com/caltransd5/status/1634591306537394176?s=46&t=tTMJoVUyV69NbVTC5DVNgw[/tweet]

BC

[martyup]

The Pajaro river levee break is a good example of why communities should be allowed to remove vegetation in river channels, especially where rivers pass through populated areas.

[martyup]

The Pajaro river levee break is a good example of why communities should be allowed to remove vegetation in river channels, especially where rivers pass through populated areas.

[BostonCard]

The Pajaro river levee break is a good example of why communities should be allowed to remove vegetation in river channels, especially where rivers pass through populated areas.

I’ll defer to our resident hydrologist on this one.  Faster flow rates would put more stress downstream to communities that are also downhill and potentially more prone to flooding, so my guess is that the wisdom of increasing the flow upstream depends on what the capacity to handle it downstream is.

BC

[BostonCard]

The Pajaro river levee break is a good example of why communities should be allowed to remove vegetation in river channels, especially where rivers pass through populated areas.

I’ll defer to our resident hydrologist on this one.  Faster flow rates would put more stress downstream to communities that are also downhill and potentially more prone to flooding, so my guess is that the wisdom of increasing the flow upstream depends on what the capacity to handle it downstream is.

BC

[Mick]

RESSW.pdf (ca.gov)

Reservoir capacity updated for 3/13 (using threepointer's scale) with % of Average to date:

Large (1 MM+ AF)
Oroville, 75% / 115%
Shasta, 62% / 84%
Pine Flat, 55% 114%
San Luis, 84% / 101%.
New Melones, 48% / 79%
Trinity, 33% / 47%
Don Pedro, 77% / 104%
New Exchequer/Lake McClure 65% / 127%
Berryessa, 71% / 85%
Almanor, 63% / 96%

Medium (300k - 999k AF, where available)
Folsom, 60% / 112% 
New Bullards, 79% / 109%
Diamond Valley, 60% / 81%
Indian Valley, 43% / 75%
Friant, 47% / 71%
Isabella, 25% / 82%
Lake San Antonio, 44% / 78%
Lake Tahoe/Tahoe City, 30% / 77%
Nacimiento, 81% / 142%
Camanche, 77% / 124%
Warm Springs, 65% / 104%
New Hogan, 59% / 119%
Castaic, 63% / 76%
Clear Lake/Cache Creek, 67% / 86%

SF Bay Reservoirs (and of local interest, where a)
Hetch Hetchy, 77% / 130%
Calaveras, 97% / 182%
Del Valle, 45% / 96%
U San Leandro, 99% / 118%
San Pablo, 80% / 113%
Chabot, 91% / 105%
Briones, 80% / 113%
Clifton Court Forebay, 58%.
San Antonio Reservoir 109% / 125%

[Mick]

RESSW.pdf (ca.gov)

Reservoir capacity updated for 3/13 (using threepointer's scale) with % of Average to date:

Large (1 MM+ AF)
Oroville, 75% / 115%
Shasta, 62% / 84%
Pine Flat, 55% 114%
San Luis, 84% / 101%.
New Melones, 48% / 79%
Trinity, 33% / 47%
Don Pedro, 77% / 104%
New Exchequer/Lake McClure 65% / 127%
Berryessa, 71% / 85%
Almanor, 63% / 96%

Medium (300k - 999k AF, where available)
Folsom, 60% / 112% 
New Bullards, 79% / 109%
Diamond Valley, 60% / 81%
Indian Valley, 43% / 75%
Friant, 47% / 71%
Isabella, 25% / 82%
Lake San Antonio, 44% / 78%
Lake Tahoe/Tahoe City, 30% / 77%
Nacimiento, 81% / 142%
Camanche, 77% / 124%
Warm Springs, 65% / 104%
New Hogan, 59% / 119%
Castaic, 63% / 76%
Clear Lake/Cache Creek, 67% / 86%

SF Bay Reservoirs (and of local interest, where a)
Hetch Hetchy, 77% / 130%
Calaveras, 97% / 182%
Del Valle, 45% / 96%
U San Leandro, 99% / 118%
San Pablo, 80% / 113%
Chabot, 91% / 105%
Briones, 80% / 113%
Clifton Court Forebay, 58%.
San Antonio Reservoir 109% / 125%

[jacket3ree]

The Pajaro river levee break is a good example of why communities should be allowed to remove vegetation in river channels, especially where rivers pass through populated areas.

I’ll defer to our resident hydrologist on this one.  Faster flow rates would put more stress downstream to communities that are also downhill and potentially more prone to flooding, so my guess is that the wisdom of increasing the flow upstream depends on what the capacity to handle it downstream is.

BC

Correct. Always improve capacity from downstream to upstream. Also vegetation can help stabilize an earthen levee system and prevent erosion. That said, they may need to clear out the vegetation within the flow conveyance section of the river along a long stretch of the Pajaro ala 1995 when Governor Wilson ordered it so and told the regulatory agencies to pound sand.  Emergency declaration; no regulatory permits.  I remember that well.  Funny how the vegetation will grow back. Age old problem. I don't know why the levee specifically failed at this section (about 300 feet now from what I've read) and if it was overtopping/degradation or piping/breach.

Just received word from our Salinas office that the Salinas River has overtopped its banks. No word about closures other than Highway 1 at Watsonville.

[jacket3ree]

The Pajaro river levee break is a good example of why communities should be allowed to remove vegetation in river channels, especially where rivers pass through populated areas.

I’ll defer to our resident hydrologist on this one.  Faster flow rates would put more stress downstream to communities that are also downhill and potentially more prone to flooding, so my guess is that the wisdom of increasing the flow upstream depends on what the capacity to handle it downstream is.

BC

Correct. Always improve capacity from downstream to upstream. Also vegetation can help stabilize an earthen levee system and prevent erosion. That said, they may need to clear out the vegetation within the flow conveyance section of the river along a long stretch of the Pajaro ala 1995 when Governor Wilson ordered it so and told the regulatory agencies to pound sand.  Emergency declaration; no regulatory permits.  I remember that well.  Funny how the vegetation will grow back. Age old problem. I don't know why the levee specifically failed at this section (about 300 feet now from what I've read) and if it was overtopping/degradation or piping/breach.

Just received word from our Salinas office that the Salinas River has overtopped its banks. No word about closures other than Highway 1 at Watsonville.

[Hurlburt88]

My company has a plant near Pendleton, OR alongside a river, and the levee failed a few years ago triggering a significant flood.  As they re-built, the responsible agency told us that vegetation contributed to the levee weakening, and committed to keeping it clear going forward.  To me, roots can help stabilize.   But they seemed to indicate that tree roots were reducing the needed compaction.   Curious if any expert insight on this given above comments.

[Hurlburt88]

My company has a plant near Pendleton, OR alongside a river, and the levee failed a few years ago triggering a significant flood.  As they re-built, the responsible agency told us that vegetation contributed to the levee weakening, and committed to keeping it clear going forward.  To me, roots can help stabilize.   But they seemed to indicate that tree roots were reducing the needed compaction.   Curious if any expert insight on this given above comments.

[cardcrimson]

Looks like No Cal has dodged a big bullet this week. The storm doesn't appear to be as advertised, and looks to be ending today, with no rain for several days. Forecasters were predicting close to 10 inches in some areas this week and looks like a third to a quarter of that. So Cal may be hit a little harder, as the storm, er, atmospheric river, appears to be drifting south.

Fortunate.

[cardcrimson]

Looks like No Cal has dodged a big bullet this week. The storm doesn't appear to be as advertised, and looks to be ending today, with no rain for several days. Forecasters were predicting close to 10 inches in some areas this week and looks like a third to a quarter of that. So Cal may be hit a little harder, as the storm, er, atmospheric river, appears to be drifting south.

Fortunate.

[TonyLima]

Looks like No Cal has dodged a big bullet this week. The storm doesn't appear to be as advertised, and looks to be ending today, with no rain for several days. Forecasters were predicting close to 10 inches in some areas this week and looks like a third to a quarter of that. So Cal may be hit a little harder, as the storm, er, atmospheric river, appears to be drifting south.

Fortunate.

Over here in Silicon Valley we’re seeing wind gusts to at least 35 mph. Lost the other two sides of our fence. Ma nature ain’t done with us yet.

[TonyLima]

Looks like No Cal has dodged a big bullet this week. The storm doesn't appear to be as advertised, and looks to be ending today, with no rain for several days. Forecasters were predicting close to 10 inches in some areas this week and looks like a third to a quarter of that. So Cal may be hit a little harder, as the storm, er, atmospheric river, appears to be drifting south.

Fortunate.

Over here in Silicon Valley we’re seeing wind gusts to at least 35 mph. Lost the other two sides of our fence. Ma nature ain’t done with us yet.

[cardcrimson]

Indeed, I spoke too soon, was thinking of floods. The winds are horrific in the East Bay. Power out, trees down, roads impassible. Lost a small tree already, and while I was walking to the car, heard a loud snap. The top of a heritage oak in the front yard snapped and is dangling. . ..  Saw a report that winds are 50 at SFO with gusts to 75. Gotta be close to that here.

[cardcrimson]

Indeed, I spoke too soon, was thinking of floods. The winds are horrific in the East Bay. Power out, trees down, roads impassible. Lost a small tree already, and while I was walking to the car, heard a loud snap. The top of a heritage oak in the front yard snapped and is dangling. . ..  Saw a report that winds are 50 at SFO with gusts to 75. Gotta be close to that here.

[GK3]

Indeed, I spoke too soon, was thinking of floods. The winds are horrific in the East Bay. Power out, trees down, roads impassible. Lost a small tree already, and while I was walking to the car, heard a loud snap. The top of a heritage oak in the front yard snapped and is dangling. . ..  Saw a report that winds are 50 at SFO with gusts to 75. Gotta be close to that here.

I wouldn't say true NORCAL is out of the woods, Eel River forecast at levels not seen since the 1960's.  Chance of a sink hole on 101 getting worse and the highway being shut down.  A hard to get to place is getting more difficult to reach.

[GK3]

Indeed, I spoke too soon, was thinking of floods. The winds are horrific in the East Bay. Power out, trees down, roads impassible. Lost a small tree already, and while I was walking to the car, heard a loud snap. The top of a heritage oak in the front yard snapped and is dangling. . ..  Saw a report that winds are 50 at SFO with gusts to 75. Gotta be close to that here.

I wouldn't say true NORCAL is out of the woods, Eel River forecast at levels not seen since the 1960's.  Chance of a sink hole on 101 getting worse and the highway being shut down.  A hard to get to place is getting more difficult to reach.

[cardcrimson]

Indeed, I spoke too soon, was thinking of floods. The winds are horrific in the East Bay. Power out, trees down, roads impassible. Lost a small tree already, and while I was walking to the car, heard a loud snap. The top of a heritage oak in the front yard snapped and is dangling. . ..  Saw a report that winds are 50 at SFO with gusts to 75. Gotta be close to that here.

I wouldn't say true NORCAL is out of the woods, Eel River forecast at levels not seen since the 1960's.  Chance of a sink hole on 101 getting worse and the highway being shut down.  A hard to get to place is getting more difficult to reach.

Good point, didn't see the radar to the north. Looks scary up there still. Rain to the north, rain to the south. The Bay Area, and perhaps the central Central Valley, weren't impacted as bad as anticipated. Still going to be interesting when all the snow melts--hopefully over the next six months, not the next two.

[cardcrimson]

Indeed, I spoke too soon, was thinking of floods. The winds are horrific in the East Bay. Power out, trees down, roads impassible. Lost a small tree already, and while I was walking to the car, heard a loud snap. The top of a heritage oak in the front yard snapped and is dangling. . ..  Saw a report that winds are 50 at SFO with gusts to 75. Gotta be close to that here.

I wouldn't say true NORCAL is out of the woods, Eel River forecast at levels not seen since the 1960's.  Chance of a sink hole on 101 getting worse and the highway being shut down.  A hard to get to place is getting more difficult to reach.

Good point, didn't see the radar to the north. Looks scary up there still. Rain to the north, rain to the south. The Bay Area, and perhaps the central Central Valley, weren't impacted as bad as anticipated. Still going to be interesting when all the snow melts--hopefully over the next six months, not the next two.

[BostonCard]

Yup, a shelter-in-place was issued at my son's high school, due to falling branches.  Caltrain has horrible delays.  Lots of trees falling over.  It turns out that saturated soil plus heavy winds is not good for trees.

And Tony, my fence bit the dust a week ago; I'm a bit scared to see what happened today.

BC

---

On the plus side, Palisades is at 648 inches of snow for the season and counting.

https://www.kron4.com/news/california/ta...is-winter/

BC

[BostonCard]

Yup, a shelter-in-place was issued at my son's high school, due to falling branches.  Caltrain has horrible delays.  Lots of trees falling over.  It turns out that saturated soil plus heavy winds is not good for trees.

And Tony, my fence bit the dust a week ago; I'm a bit scared to see what happened today.

BC

---

On the plus side, Palisades is at 648 inches of snow for the season and counting.

https://www.kron4.com/news/california/ta...is-winter/

BC