[socalstanfan1]

You raise a fair point, but your analysis neglects the fact that contributions will naturally be weight much more heavily towards upperclassmen, and that many people will be significant contributors but only for 1-2 years.  If we accept your hypothesis that about 45 people will be meaningful contributors, in the most extreme setting that could mean that every junior and senior is a meaningful contributor with a few undercalssman and fifth year contributors.

True enough.  Really getting a better sense of this would require going back through a bunch of past classes and seeing how many players just never became major contributors, and how many (as you point out) develop in their last year or two (a great example being Josh Mauro).  As Shaw points out, the game is kind of dominated by Juniors and Seniors.

But I suspect what happens is something slightly different: some players do develop into starters by their Jr/Sr years, but they often have seen increasing playing time in their second year.  And a larger number just never quite see the field as they are challenged by each incoming class, with the occasional RS Freshman or Sophomore who just takes over a position.  (This is going to be the challenge for players like Kodi Whitfiled and Dallas Lloyd, safeties who now have to face all the younger talent from both last year's class and this year's class.)  But, again, nailing this down would require looking at more than just two groups of new players.

Edit: Just a quick follow up on a few other classes: In the 2010 class, 10 players did not really play a significant role on the field, and one player (Dallas Lloyd) still has a chance to make an impact.  That fits the 50 percent pattern.  On the other hand, the class of 2009 was awesome: in a class of 22 only 5 players really did not make an impact: Taysom Hill never arrived on campus when he went to BYU, Jordan Najvar was the FOURTH TE recruited in that class (with Ertz, Toilolo and Hewitt), and he transferred after his RS year, Geoff Heineken suffered a series of injuries that kept him from reaching his great potential, Jamal Rashard Patterson and Jemari Roberts just never developed.  But the success rate in that class was tremendous; 2011, 8/19 not cracking the top two or finding the field very often (though Lance Callahan was part of this class, so perhaps he makes his contribution this year)

[socalstanfan1]

You raise a fair point, but your analysis neglects the fact that contributions will naturally be weight much more heavily towards upperclassmen, and that many people will be significant contributors but only for 1-2 years.  If we accept your hypothesis that about 45 people will be meaningful contributors, in the most extreme setting that could mean that every junior and senior is a meaningful contributor with a few undercalssman and fifth year contributors.

True enough.  Really getting a better sense of this would require going back through a bunch of past classes and seeing how many players just never became major contributors, and how many (as you point out) develop in their last year or two (a great example being Josh Mauro).  As Shaw points out, the game is kind of dominated by Juniors and Seniors.

But I suspect what happens is something slightly different: some players do develop into starters by their Jr/Sr years, but they often have seen increasing playing time in their second year.  And a larger number just never quite see the field as they are challenged by each incoming class, with the occasional RS Freshman or Sophomore who just takes over a position.  (This is going to be the challenge for players like Kodi Whitfiled and Dallas Lloyd, safeties who now have to face all the younger talent from both last year's class and this year's class.)  But, again, nailing this down would require looking at more than just two groups of new players.

Edit: Just a quick follow up on a few other classes: In the 2010 class, 10 players did not really play a significant role on the field, and one player (Dallas Lloyd) still has a chance to make an impact.  That fits the 50 percent pattern.  On the other hand, the class of 2009 was awesome: in a class of 22 only 5 players really did not make an impact: Taysom Hill never arrived on campus when he went to BYU, Jordan Najvar was the FOURTH TE recruited in that class (with Ertz, Toilolo and Hewitt), and he transferred after his RS year, Geoff Heineken suffered a series of injuries that kept him from reaching his great potential, Jamal Rashard Patterson and Jemari Roberts just never developed.  But the success rate in that class was tremendous; 2011, 8/19 not cracking the top two or finding the field very often (though Lance Callahan was part of this class, so perhaps he makes his contribution this year)