[CTcard]

The universal application changed this game. 
...

Many of the people on this board applied to Stanford when the odds were 1 in 6 or better.  Now the odds are 1 in 20. 

At least to me, it is an interesting question just how much the odds of getting into Stanford (or any very elite school) have really changed. There is definitely a general air of "it's much harder to get into a top college these days".

However, unless you consider every application equal and admissions a pure roll of the dice, then the odds clearly haven't changed as much as 1/6 versus 1/20.

With the rise in number of applicants means that their are a lot of applications that simply have no chance. Those won't change the odds of the ones that do have a chance.

The fact that many of the best students now apply to most all of the elite colleges doesn't change the odds of getting into one on average, but almost certainly makes the entire process more random. That again drives individual decisions to apply to more colleges, thus making the overall problem worse. A nasty feedback loop.

How to go beyond that is tricky.

The overall 18 year old population hasn't changed all that much for a long time now, with the overall maximum coming at the end of the baby boom era (born around 1956-61* - entering college around 1974-1979).

However, lots of things have changed since, say, 1970.

First of all, clearly the Ivies (and Stanford) have diversified their student bodies a lot.
That means if you are from a poor background and an ethnic minority your chances have gone way up - from a starting point near zero.
One corollary would have to be if you come from a relatively wealthy white family your chances must have gone down.

Have students on average become better? No or not by much according to most longitudinal studies I have seen. However, average is not particularly relevant to Ivy admissions.

So, has the top end separated itself further from the mean? I have seen some studies that say yes, or at least maybe - though a modest effect.


It's hard to come to any real conclusions. The more you think about it more difficult it is to even define what you mean by "harder to get into college these days".



* the years 1956-1961 were the only ones with over 4.2 million births in the USA. Well, at least until recently when that number was exceeded from 2006-2008. Presumably that will lead to another bump in competition for the entering classes of 2024-2026 [including my son for the end of that].
If you were born in 1973 you were at the post-WW2 minimum, 3.14 million births.

[CTcard]

The universal application changed this game. 
...

Many of the people on this board applied to Stanford when the odds were 1 in 6 or better.  Now the odds are 1 in 20. 

At least to me, it is an interesting question just how much the odds of getting into Stanford (or any very elite school) have really changed. There is definitely a general air of "it's much harder to get into a top college these days".

However, unless you consider every application equal and admissions a pure roll of the dice, then the odds clearly haven't changed as much as 1/6 versus 1/20.

With the rise in number of applicants means that their are a lot of applications that simply have no chance. Those won't change the odds of the ones that do have a chance.

The fact that many of the best students now apply to most all of the elite colleges doesn't change the odds of getting into one on average, but almost certainly makes the entire process more random. That again drives individual decisions to apply to more colleges, thus making the overall problem worse. A nasty feedback loop.

How to go beyond that is tricky.

The overall 18 year old population hasn't changed all that much for a long time now, with the overall maximum coming at the end of the baby boom era (born around 1956-61* - entering college around 1974-1979).

However, lots of things have changed since, say, 1970.

First of all, clearly the Ivies (and Stanford) have diversified their student bodies a lot.
That means if you are from a poor background and an ethnic minority your chances have gone way up - from a starting point near zero.
One corollary would have to be if you come from a relatively wealthy white family your chances must have gone down.

Have students on average become better? No or not by much according to most longitudinal studies I have seen. However, average is not particularly relevant to Ivy admissions.

So, has the top end separated itself further from the mean? I have seen some studies that say yes, or at least maybe - though a modest effect.


It's hard to come to any real conclusions. The more you think about it more difficult it is to even define what you mean by "harder to get into college these days".



* the years 1956-1961 were the only ones with over 4.2 million births in the USA. Well, at least until recently when that number was exceeded from 2006-2008. Presumably that will lead to another bump in competition for the entering classes of 2024-2026 [including my son for the end of that].
If you were born in 1973 you were at the post-WW2 minimum, 3.14 million births.