[washingtonismoney]

Of course, as Kyle Bonagura points out--and folks tend to forget--these odds are created so that people will spend their hard-earned money on sports bets. The Vegas odds should not be viewed as "honest" predictions of how likely it is that these teams will win the NC.

Two things:

1) I dunno, whenever someone posts odds it's mere seconds until someone posts why it's not really a prediction.
2) Of course, people usually stop their analysis there: that because it's not meant to be predictive, odds are not, in fact, predictive. This analysis is plausible, but without empirical detail. And in fact there's a plausible theory to believe it doesn't matter: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Efficient-m...hypothesis

If the just-for-entertainment-purposes odds are systematically wrong, then people gambling would win frequently. And if they did, casinos would lose money. In essence, people who believe that the odds are merely for entertainment purposes and have little-to-no-predictive-value should also believe that casinos lose money from gambling and that there are large classes of professional gamblers. I don't think that describes the real world.

[washingtonismoney]

Of course, as Kyle Bonagura points out--and folks tend to forget--these odds are created so that people will spend their hard-earned money on sports bets. The Vegas odds should not be viewed as "honest" predictions of how likely it is that these teams will win the NC.

Two things:

1) I dunno, whenever someone posts odds it's mere seconds until someone posts why it's not really a prediction.
2) Of course, people usually stop their analysis there: that because it's not meant to be predictive, odds are not, in fact, predictive. This analysis is plausible, but without empirical detail. And in fact there's a plausible theory to believe it doesn't matter: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Efficient-m...hypothesis

If the just-for-entertainment-purposes odds are systematically wrong, then people gambling would win frequently. And if they did, casinos would lose money. In essence, people who believe that the odds are merely for entertainment purposes and have little-to-no-predictive-value should also believe that casinos lose money from gambling and that there are large classes of professional gamblers. I don't think that describes the real world.