05-12-2015, 09:24 AM
(05-12-2015, 05:44 AM)washingtonismoney link Wrote:If the just-for-entertainment-purposes odds are systematically wrong, then people gambling would win frequently. And if they did, casinos would lose money. In essence, people who believe that the odds are merely for entertainment purposes and have little-to-no-predictive-value should also believe that casinos lose money from gambling and that there are large classes of professional gamblers. I don't think that describes the real world.
Well, if the odds are systematically correct, then the people gambling would win just as frequently. My understanding is that there is a group of folks who give the casinos the "honest" odds and then the casinos manipulate those to make their profit.
In summary: when I see odds, I think gambling. When I see probabilities, I think prediction.
Regardless, may the odds be ever in Stanford's favor!
If there's one thing people have learned in Berkeley, it's that you can't put "Cal football" and "Rose Bowl" in the same sentence. The words just don't fit. You'd be better off linking "covered wagons" with "Mars travel." (Bruce Jenkins, Cal '70, SF Chronicle, Nov. 11, 2017)