[washingtonismoney]

The odds are a prediction. To be specific, they're a prediction of how gamblers will bet. That's probably pretty close to a reflection of the consensus prediction for the outcome of the sporting event. But it's not the same thing.

Correct, but here's the wrinkle: the fifty/fifty split should be a pretty good prediction of the actual result. If it weren't, the casino would lose money.

[washingtonismoney]

The odds are a prediction. To be specific, they're a prediction of how gamblers will bet. That's probably pretty close to a reflection of the consensus prediction for the outcome of the sporting event. But it's not the same thing.

Correct, but here's the wrinkle: the fifty/fifty split should be a pretty good prediction of the actual result. If it weren't, the casino would lose money.