(05-12-2015, 11:49 AM)washingtonismoney link Wrote:the fifty/fifty split should be a pretty good prediction of the actual result. If it weren't, the casino would lose money.
Is that right? If the casino correctly predicts the betting, does the actual result matter? It seems to me that if the money comes in 50-50, then regardless of the actual result, the losers will pay the winners, with the casino taking its cut. It seems to me that it shouldn't matter whether the betting line misses the actual result by a little or by a lot, because that shouldn't affect the number of winners or losers.
For example, in Super Bowl III, the Colts were favored over the Jets by 17, I believe. I remember reading that the spread was perfect -- the money came in on both sides; the spread didn't move. So, even though the perception was that the casinos got the spread wrong, they actually got it right because the bets came in 50-50. They made their money even though Namath and the Jets won by 9. Is that wrong?