[stupac2]

Right. In practice, of course, markets aren't necessarily perfectly efficient. But certain markets are. For example, the number of people who should be doing anything other than index funds for their retirement investing is super, super small. The stock market is pretty efficient.

I don't really get the connection there. Even if the stock market weren't generally pretty efficient, wouldn't most people want to be in index funds? After all, the idea that some people can sometimes beat the market doesn't imply that everyone can all the time.

My suspicion is that the big sports gambling markets are too. But again, I haven't seen good empirical data. And I'm surprised that no one's done a good, comprehensive study on this -- because it seems both fascinating, and relatively easy (by academic study standards.)

There has to be a reason for this, there are too many researchers out there for no one to have thought of doing this. Maybe it's been done but the results aren't well known?

[stupac2]

Right. In practice, of course, markets aren't necessarily perfectly efficient. But certain markets are. For example, the number of people who should be doing anything other than index funds for their retirement investing is super, super small. The stock market is pretty efficient.

I don't really get the connection there. Even if the stock market weren't generally pretty efficient, wouldn't most people want to be in index funds? After all, the idea that some people can sometimes beat the market doesn't imply that everyone can all the time.

My suspicion is that the big sports gambling markets are too. But again, I haven't seen good empirical data. And I'm surprised that no one's done a good, comprehensive study on this -- because it seems both fascinating, and relatively easy (by academic study standards.)

There has to be a reason for this, there are too many researchers out there for no one to have thought of doing this. Maybe it's been done but the results aren't well known?