[stupac2]

Do cupcakes affect your analysis?  I haven't re-checked their schedule, but I presume Sark had more cupcakes in the earlier part of the year than Helton had.  Seems that it might skew the output, even though it is relative to their opponents' opponents.  My assumption would be that cupcakes' strength of schedules (strengths of schedule?) would be weaker outside of their game against the Condoms.

It shouldn't since it's relative to their overall level of play. Sark did get Idaho and Arkansas State, which were his two best games offensively and 2/3 best defensively, but Helton got Colorado and Arizona, those two pairs average out to be about equally weak. But even if you remove Sark's two best games, he's still significantly better than Helton (+0.8 ypp on offense, -0.5 ypp on defense, both clearly higher than Helton's averages).

It's possible there's evidence out there for Helton being a good coach, but it really looks like he's somehow even worse than "seven win Sark".

[stupac2]

Do cupcakes affect your analysis?  I haven't re-checked their schedule, but I presume Sark had more cupcakes in the earlier part of the year than Helton had.  Seems that it might skew the output, even though it is relative to their opponents' opponents.  My assumption would be that cupcakes' strength of schedules (strengths of schedule?) would be weaker outside of their game against the Condoms.

It shouldn't since it's relative to their overall level of play. Sark did get Idaho and Arkansas State, which were his two best games offensively and 2/3 best defensively, but Helton got Colorado and Arizona, those two pairs average out to be about equally weak. But even if you remove Sark's two best games, he's still significantly better than Helton (+0.8 ypp on offense, -0.5 ypp on defense, both clearly higher than Helton's averages).

It's possible there's evidence out there for Helton being a good coach, but it really looks like he's somehow even worse than "seven win Sark".