[StanfordMatt]

[quote author=StanfordMatt link=topic=13994.msg147175#msg147175 date=1449718636]
The people who do have vastly superior knowledge are the bookmakers in Vegas and they still have McCaffrey has a h.uge underdog to Henry.

Vegas sets odds based on where the money is being bet, not where they think the result will end up.
[/quote]

With all due respect, this is an overused cliche that doesn't square with reality in today's world of sports gambling. Books often hold lines steady despite an onslaught of square bets on one side of the ledger. In these cases, they are willing to take a loss because they know that if they adjust the lines to match the money, they'll get hammered even harder by the sharps. Put simply, while it's true that in a vacuum Vegas isn't concerned with the end result of a contest, the proficiency of professional gamblers these days renders this distinction moot. While you could argue that there's a difference between the odds on a game and the odds on a vote, I'm skeptical it's a material one.

All that being said, I would love nothing more than to be proven wrong on Saturday night!

[StanfordMatt]

[quote author=StanfordMatt link=topic=13994.msg147175#msg147175 date=1449718636]
The people who do have vastly superior knowledge are the bookmakers in Vegas and they still have McCaffrey has a h.uge underdog to Henry.

Vegas sets odds based on where the money is being bet, not where they think the result will end up.
[/quote]

With all due respect, this is an overused cliche that doesn't square with reality in today's world of sports gambling. Books often hold lines steady despite an onslaught of square bets on one side of the ledger. In these cases, they are willing to take a loss because they know that if they adjust the lines to match the money, they'll get hammered even harder by the sharps. Put simply, while it's true that in a vacuum Vegas isn't concerned with the end result of a contest, the proficiency of professional gamblers these days renders this distinction moot. While you could argue that there's a difference between the odds on a game and the odds on a vote, I'm skeptical it's a material one.

All that being said, I would love nothing more than to be proven wrong on Saturday night!