[Hulk01]

I think anything below 8-4 is a near impossibility.

Even with an average quarterback, this is a team that will crush Kansas State, Rice, Cal, and Coloradio, and should have little trouble with Washington State in a dry and supportive Stanford Stadium.  Even with iffy quarterback play, Stanford's only test at home will be USC.

So give us five home wins, and a great shot at a sixth--in which we will playing a team we outscore by 29 points in two games this year.

Oregon State will be horrible: make it six wins.

Cal, without Goff, will be slightly better, and not good: That's seven.

It comes down to Washington, which has a pretty good but far from great quarterback, and a defense that will have lost, over the last two season, four players drafted in the first 45, its two best linebackers--Littleton and Feeney--and its best defensive lineman, Tupou, plus its three leading wide receivers.  It's tough up there, but a very good chance at eight.

That leaves Notre Dame there, UCLA there, and Oregon there--plus, again, USC at home.  UCLA keeps losing good guys up front; their best guy, Kenny Clark, is gone, and their very best player period, Jack, is gone, too.  And they have a Stanford problem, and we traditionally play well in LA, which is a very easy trip that takes little adjusting.  Perkins and Rosen make them dangerous, but we also can rely on them to shot themselves often in the feet with penalties, 

Notre Dame is getting killed by graduation.  They lose one of the nations' best linebacker, Smith, a terrific DL in Sheldon Day, two terrific offensive linemen including the elite Ronnie Stanley.  Have to see on Fuller, who may return to try to prove to the pros he doesn't have iffy hands, too often, and Prosise, who looked damned good to me.  Schmidt is gone at LB, too, and both of their other two WRs, as I read their depth chart.  We beat them and they'll be hurt more by graduation than we are.  It's been close there so often: Give us no worse than a 35% chance.

Oregon is heading south but has lots of speed, very good wide receivers, and Freeman.  But can anyone on their team stop anyone on our team from scoring?  Buckner is gone, joining Armstead from last year.  Their defense could be very very bad, and it's not clear they'll have a QB in Adam's class, and certain whomever he is will be about 30 PER points short of a Mariota.  We've beaten them there.  Worst case, 35%, but there's a better chance we're a slight favorite.

I'd bet on us winning at least one of two from ND and Oregon, and I'd be surprised if we went 1-3 against the meat of UCLA, USC, ND, and Oregon. 

And we will have the nation's best and most dangerous offensive weapon, a terrific defensive backfield that will never have to play bend but don't break, and the conference's four best special teams. 

10-2, and a win over USC in the Big One: 11-2.

[Hulk01]

I think anything below 8-4 is a near impossibility.

Even with an average quarterback, this is a team that will crush Kansas State, Rice, Cal, and Coloradio, and should have little trouble with Washington State in a dry and supportive Stanford Stadium.  Even with iffy quarterback play, Stanford's only test at home will be USC.

So give us five home wins, and a great shot at a sixth--in which we will playing a team we outscore by 29 points in two games this year.

Oregon State will be horrible: make it six wins.

Cal, without Goff, will be slightly better, and not good: That's seven.

It comes down to Washington, which has a pretty good but far from great quarterback, and a defense that will have lost, over the last two season, four players drafted in the first 45, its two best linebackers--Littleton and Feeney--and its best defensive lineman, Tupou, plus its three leading wide receivers.  It's tough up there, but a very good chance at eight.

That leaves Notre Dame there, UCLA there, and Oregon there--plus, again, USC at home.  UCLA keeps losing good guys up front; their best guy, Kenny Clark, is gone, and their very best player period, Jack, is gone, too.  And they have a Stanford problem, and we traditionally play well in LA, which is a very easy trip that takes little adjusting.  Perkins and Rosen make them dangerous, but we also can rely on them to shot themselves often in the feet with penalties, 

Notre Dame is getting killed by graduation.  They lose one of the nations' best linebacker, Smith, a terrific DL in Sheldon Day, two terrific offensive linemen including the elite Ronnie Stanley.  Have to see on Fuller, who may return to try to prove to the pros he doesn't have iffy hands, too often, and Prosise, who looked damned good to me.  Schmidt is gone at LB, too, and both of their other two WRs, as I read their depth chart.  We beat them and they'll be hurt more by graduation than we are.  It's been close there so often: Give us no worse than a 35% chance.

Oregon is heading south but has lots of speed, very good wide receivers, and Freeman.  But can anyone on their team stop anyone on our team from scoring?  Buckner is gone, joining Armstead from last year.  Their defense could be very very bad, and it's not clear they'll have a QB in Adam's class, and certain whomever he is will be about 30 PER points short of a Mariota.  We've beaten them there.  Worst case, 35%, but there's a better chance we're a slight favorite.

I'd bet on us winning at least one of two from ND and Oregon, and I'd be surprised if we went 1-3 against the meat of UCLA, USC, ND, and Oregon. 

And we will have the nation's best and most dangerous offensive weapon, a terrific defensive backfield that will never have to play bend but don't break, and the conference's four best special teams. 

10-2, and a win over USC in the Big One: 11-2.