10-18-2016, 07:46 AM
To flesh out a bit the numbers behind your post.
S&P+ Offense for Stanford
2011Â 133.2Â Â 8th
2012Â 113.4Â 29th
2013Â 121.4Â 17th
2014Â Â 32.0Â 45th *
2015Â Â 43.0Â Â 5th
2016  25.3 94th (so far)
* Obviously the formula for S&P+ changed in 2014 versus previous years. So, roughly the raw number can be used as a year to year comparison but only 2011-2013 and separately 2014-2016.
I would be interested to see where 2012 Stanford ranked before the switch to Hogan, but I don't know how to find that.
There are several details about S&P I don't love. I like Brian Fremeau's FEI a little better - mostly because it is drive-based instead of play-based and I think that cancels out some issues of style versus effectiveness. [And, it seems 2016 offense FEI is available for the first time in the last few minutes!]
So, by FEI
2011Â Â 1.16Â Â Â 6th
2012Â Â 0.15Â Â 54th
2013Â Â 0.60Â Â 27th
2014Â Â 0.20Â Â 50th
2015Â Â 1.45Â Â 2nd
2016Â -0.07Â Â 70th
These probably are not different enough to change your conclusions, but they probably show a little more variation year to year. And as we have noted before, there is a strong correlation between offensive performance and QB/OL experience.
For other reasons, I don't think it is quite correct to state that "It's probably fair to ding Shaw for not being the most consistent coach" given that Stanford's results under Shaw's tenure have been remarkably consistent. I know that is not what you meant - you were referring purely to the offense, but I think it is worth noting anyway.
In FEI Overall we find:
2011 = 7th
2012 = 7th
2013 = 2nd
2014 = 21st
2015 = 3rd
Which is really quite remarkable.
S&P+ Offense for Stanford
2011Â 133.2Â Â 8th
2012Â 113.4Â 29th
2013Â 121.4Â 17th
2014Â Â 32.0Â 45th *
2015Â Â 43.0Â Â 5th
2016  25.3 94th (so far)
* Obviously the formula for S&P+ changed in 2014 versus previous years. So, roughly the raw number can be used as a year to year comparison but only 2011-2013 and separately 2014-2016.
I would be interested to see where 2012 Stanford ranked before the switch to Hogan, but I don't know how to find that.
There are several details about S&P I don't love. I like Brian Fremeau's FEI a little better - mostly because it is drive-based instead of play-based and I think that cancels out some issues of style versus effectiveness. [And, it seems 2016 offense FEI is available for the first time in the last few minutes!]
So, by FEI
2011Â Â 1.16Â Â Â 6th
2012Â Â 0.15Â Â 54th
2013Â Â 0.60Â Â 27th
2014Â Â 0.20Â Â 50th
2015Â Â 1.45Â Â 2nd
2016Â -0.07Â Â 70th
These probably are not different enough to change your conclusions, but they probably show a little more variation year to year. And as we have noted before, there is a strong correlation between offensive performance and QB/OL experience.
For other reasons, I don't think it is quite correct to state that "It's probably fair to ding Shaw for not being the most consistent coach" given that Stanford's results under Shaw's tenure have been remarkably consistent. I know that is not what you meant - you were referring purely to the offense, but I think it is worth noting anyway.
In FEI Overall we find:
2011 = 7th
2012 = 7th
2013 = 2nd
2014 = 21st
2015 = 3rd
Which is really quite remarkable.